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BRICs lead the world in software piracy

Posted: May 16, 2012, 6:59 pm by Joshua Keating

The industry group Business Software Alliance is out with its annual report on global software piracy and it appears that the BRIC countries are still pretty dominant. Yes, Zimbabwe has the world's highest rate of software piracy at 92 percent, overtaking Georgia for the top spot this year. And the United States has the largest illegal software sector in terms of dollar value. But as the chart on the right shows, China, Russia, India, and Brazil combined for more than $17.9 billion worth of pirated software in 2011 -- 28 percent of the global total -- at an average piracy rate of 64 percent. On the other hand, rates are down this year in all four countries according to BSA's numbers.

Overall, BSA says the global rate of software piracy remained steady at 42 percent, though the value of the shadow market in pirated software increased from $58.8 billion to $63.4 billion.

The world's most honest software users? Americans! While the value of its shadow software industry may be the highest, BSA puts the U.S. piracy rate at only 19 percent, the lowest in the world.

Map of the day: 1,000 years of Europe

Posted: May 16, 2012, 5:40 pm by Joshua Keating

In case you need a little perspective on all the apocalyptic eurozone speculation, take the next 10 minutes to witness a millennium of war, conquest and genocide!

If you're impatient, here's the three-minute version.

Update: Looks like the videos have been taken down for copyright reasons. Sorry folks.

Hat tip: Kottke

Morning Brief: Ratko Mladic's war crimes trial begins

Posted: May 16, 2012, 3:11 pm by Uri Friedman

Ratko Mladic's war crimes trial begins

Top news: Ratko Mladic, the former Bosnian Serb leader who was captured last May after more than 15 years on the run, appeared in a courtroom in The Hague on Wednesday to begin his trial for war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity in connection with the Bosnian war in the 1990s.

In outlining its case against Mladic, the prosecution accused the former military commander of "realizing through military might the criminal goals of ethnically cleansing much of Bosnia" by orchestrating the slaughter of 8,000 unarmed Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica and laying siege to Sarajevo for 44 months, a period in which more than 10,000 people died.

Mladic, for his part, has refused to enter a formal plea, but the court has entered a not guilty plea on his behalf. On Wednesday, the 70-year-old general appeared to taunt Srebrenica survivors, making eye contact with a Muslim woman in the audience and running a hand across his throat in a gesture that prompted the judge to call a brief recess.

Greece: Greek President Karolos Papoulias appointed a judge to head a caretaker government until a new round of elections can be held on June 17, as the country's failure to form a coalition government roils markets and Greeks began withdrawing funds from banks.

Middle East

A convoy of U.N. monitors got caught in clashes between protesters and Syrian forces in Idlib province and stayed with members of the opposition Free Syrian Army overnight.

The Yemeni military killed at least 18 people in airstrikes against al Qaeda as part of a larger offensive against militants in southern Yemen.

The Libyan Islamist leader Abdel Hakim Belhadj resigned from the military to run in elections next month.

Americas

Gen. James Cartwright, a former commander of U.S. nuclear forces, called for a steep reduction in the U.S. nuclear arsenal.

A bombing in the Colombian capital killed at least two people, in what appeared to be an assassination attempt on a former government minister.

The Mexican novelist Carlos Fuentes died at age 83.

Europe

Following his inauguration, French President Francois Hollande met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and named Jean-Marc Ayrault as his prime minister.

The European Union announced new regulations for banks.

Russian police cleared a campsite occupied by anti-government protesters in Moscow.

Asia

NATO invited Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari to its upcoming summit in Chicago.

Investigators discovered the black box from a Russian passenger jet that crashed in Indonesia last week.

The Chinese dissident Chen Guangcheng called into a second U.S. congressional hearing and spoke of local Chinese authorities harassing his family.

Africa

Ahead of his sentencing, former Liberian President Charles Taylor accused the prosecution in his war crimes trial at the Hague of paying its witnesses.

The United Nations estimated that more than half the population in South Sudan is facing food shortages.

Amnesty International accused Tuareg rebels in northern Mali of recruiting child soldiers and committing rape and murder.

Toussaint Kluiters/AFP/Getty Images

Department of Omens

Posted: May 15, 2012, 12:24 am by Joshua Keating

This is probably not what Francois Hollande wanted on the first day of his presidency:

After a succession of rain-drenched and pomp-filled ceremonial inauguration events, Hollande took off in a Falcon 7X aircraft for Berlin. The plane was hit by lightning shortly afterward, and returned to the Villacoublay air base outside Paris as a precaution for inspection, Defense Ministry spokesman Gerard Gachet said.

Defense officials say the president and his entourage were transferred to another aircraft, a Falcon 900, and left shortly thereafter. That made Hollande about an hour and a half late for his first meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

A new FP slideshow compares Hollande's inauguration with Vladimir Putin's somewhat grander affair.

Who is responsible for 'grexit'?

Posted: May 15, 2012, 11:44 pm by Joshua Keating

One of the most unfortunate neologisms of the European financial crisis has to be "Grexit," the now-ubiquitous term referring to a possible Greek exit from the eurozone. (I'm pretty fond of PIIGS, on other hand.) I was curious about who had first used the term. This FT Alphavillle post from Feb. 7 would seem to have the answer:

Grexit being, of course, a Greek exit from the eurozone. (Also, an app for archiving and sharing Gmail threads. Bummer for them.)

The term comes from Willem Buiter and Ebrahim Rahbari at Citi, who are now leaning towards the “let them leave” argument:

First, we raise our estimate of the likelihood of Greek exit from the eurozone (or ‘Grexit’) to 50% over the next 18 months from earlier estimates of ours which put it at 25-30%. Second, we argue that the implications of Grexit for the rest of the EA and the world would be negative, but moderate, as exit fear contagion would likely be contained by policy action, notably from the ECB.

So it appears Citibank is to blame. On the other hand, maybe an unpleasant sounding word is appropriate for that scenario.

The war on pirates moves on land

Posted: May 15, 2012, 11:28 pm by Joshua Keating

For the first time, EU forces are attacking pirate bases within Somali territory:

European helicopter gunships attacked a pirate base on the Somali coast on Tuesday, destroying five speedboats, in the first such airborne strike on land by the anti-piracy force.

The Somali-based pirates responded by threatening to kill crew being held on more than a dozen hijacked vessels if they were attacked again.

The EU Naval Force (EU Navfor) said it had carried out the overnight raid on pirate targets using helicopters and surveillance aircraft with the agreement of the beleaguered, Western-backed Somali government.

There are concerns that this new tactic could put the more than 300 hostages being held in Somalia at risk, or drive the pirates to more desperate tactics. I also wonder, if this becomes a regular thing, whether it will have larger security implications. Frequent European bombing raids on Somali territory with the consent of the Western-backed government in Mogadishu, no matter the intended target, seem like something a group like Al Shabaab could easily exploit for propaganda value.

Morning Brief: Greek president pushes for technocratic government

Posted: May 15, 2012, 3:20 pm by Joshua Keating

Greek president pushes for technocratic government

Top news: Greek President Karolos Papoulias is meeting with party leaders to ask them to step aside in favor of a technocratic government that can keep the country from bankruptcy -- a last-ditch effort to salvage a political compromise out of the inconclusive May 6 election. However, while the leftist Syriza bloc is attending the meeting, it has already pledged to reject the plan. "We don't want to consent to any kind of bailout policies, even if they are implemented by non-political personalities," said a spokesman.

Failure to agree on a new government would force Papoulias to call for new elections in June, and would likely raise the chances of Greece defaulting on its debts and leaving the eurozone entirely.

While many eurozone leaders are now discussing the prospect of a Greek exit openly, Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker, who heads the group of eurozone finance ministers, angrily dismissed such talk on Monday. “I don’t envisage, not even for one second, Greece leaving the euro area. This is nonsense. This is propaganda,” he said.

The Greek economy contracted by 6.2 percent in the first three months of the year.

Economy: Despite contractions in Southern Europe, the continent narrowly avoided returning to recession in the first three months of the year thanks to stronger than expected growth from Germany.

Middle East

Nearly 23 Syrian soldiers were reportedly killed in clashes with opposition fighters.
Saudi Arabia is seeking a closer union of the Gulf monarchies.
A group of Palestinian prisoners agreed to end a hunger strike in exchange for concessions from Israel.

Africa

EU forces conducted their first raid on a pirate base on the Somali mainland.
A suspected remote-controlled bomb went off at a Somali refugee center in Kenya.
West Africa regional bloc ECOWAS has threatened to reimpose sanctions on Mali's coup leaders.

Europe

Former Rupert Murdoch aide Rebekah Brooks will face prosecution in the NewsCorp phone hacking scandal.
Francois Hollande was sworn in as president of France.
The British government defended David Cameron's meeting with the Dalai Lama from Chinese criticism.

Asia

Nine civilians were killed in a bombing at a market in Northern Afghanistan.
Pakistan's foreign minister suggested it may reopen its Afghan border to NATO supplies.
China has detained four South Korean activists.

Americas

Haiti's parliament voted in a new government.
The U.S.-Colombia free-trade agreement went into effect.
Argentina's vice president is being investigated for corruption.

ANGELOS TZORTZINIS/AFP/GettyImages

Europe's gray future

Posted: May 14, 2012, 12:04 am by Joshua Keating

EU Observer looks at a new report, set to be endorsed by Europe's finance ministers tomorrow, that looks beyond the the ramifications of the "Grexit" to a longer-term threat to the continent's prosperity:

With an increase of some five percent, the total EU population is to reach 526 million in 2040. Not counted in the statistics are potential further enlargements to populous countries such as Turkey.

The largest chunk of the population will continue to be the age group 15-64, but it will decrease from 67 percent in 2010 to 56 percent in 2060. "Those aged 65 and over will become a much larger share (rising from 17% to 30% of the population), and those aged 80 and over (rising from 5% to 12%) will almost become as numerous as the young population in 2060," the report predicts.

The labour force is going to to up slightly until 2020 as more women are joining the workforce, but after that a decline of almost 12 percent will be recorded by 2060, or 27.7 million less.

Statistics vary widely across the bloc - from a 25 percent increase in Ireland to a 38.5 drop in Romania over the same period up to 2060.

As women across the bloc are having on average less than two children, which is the natural replacement rate for a society and as life expectancy is going up, the pensioner-to-worker ratio will rise from 39 percent in 2010 to 71 percent in 2060. The lowest rate - 55 percent - is projected in Denmark, the UK and Ireland, while the highest rates - over 90 percent are to be hit in Hungary, Slovakia, Poland and Romania in 2060.

Meanwhile, economic growth is projected to remain low, around 1.5 percent up to 2020 and 1.6 percent in 2021-2030 followed by a slow-down to 1.3 percent by 2060, as labour productivity will increase in the poorer states.

The aging of the developed world is the subtext of a lot of the generous maternity benefits I wrote about in this mother's day list and the fertility promotion programs I discussed in the Sex Issue. Singapore's government matchmaking service and Russia "Give Birth to a Patriot on Russia Day" contest might seem goofy, but there demographic trends behind them are a quite real

The Dalai Lama and the case of the poison hair

Posted: May 14, 2012, 7:41 pm by Joshua Keating

The Dalai Lama made a pretty startling claim in an interview with the Sunday Telegraph yesterday:

"We received some sort of information from Tibet," he said. "Some Chinese agents training some Tibetans, especially women, you see, using poison – the hair poisoned, and the scarf poisoned – they were supposed to seek blessing from me, and my hand touch."

He said the reports were unconfirmed and he couldn't say whether they were "100 percent correct" but it was still enough to set off the Beijing rapid-response machine:

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said the Dalai Lama was spreading rumours to attract public attention.

"His sensational allegations are not even worth refuting," he said, before calling them groundless. The spokesman added: "Wearing a religious cloak, the Dalai Lama has been engaged in international anti-China separatist activities."

The Chinese newspaper the Global Times went further, calling the allegations mind-boggling.

"The assassination plot told by the Dalai is more like something you would find in a martial arts novel. Revealing such unreliable information, the Dalai appears to have become mixed up in his old age," it wrote.

One would like to give the Dalai Lama the benefit of the doubt, and there have certainly been some strange but true assassination plots over the years, but this one seems a little dubious. For one thing, if the poison were strong enough to kill him from just touching it, wouldn't it kill the woman wearing it on her head first?

The Dalai Lama is currently in Britain to receive the Templeton Prize, a £1.1 million annual award for exceptional work in "affirming life's spiritual dimension".

Are East Germans the world's most godless people?

Posted: May 14, 2012, 6:33 pm by Joshua Keating

It was Leipzig-born Friedrich Nietzche who wrote that "God is dead" in the 1880s. As far as his fellow East Germans are concerned, he may have been on to something.

A recent study by University of Chicago sociologist Tom Smith looks at survey data on belief in God in 30 countries between 1991 and 2008. The citizens of the former German Democratic Republic have by far the highest rate of atheism at 52.1 percent. The Czech Republic is the most atheist currently existing country at 39.9 percent. They're followed by the French (23.3 percent), the Dutch (19.7 percent), and the Swedes (19.3 percent). Japan is the country with the lowest percentage of people who say they "know god really exists and have no doubts about it." (4.3 percent.)

The most religious country in the survey was the Philippines, where 83.6 percent of people are sure God exists and only 0.7 percent are atheists. The United States is pretty godly as well, with only a 3 percent rate of atheism and 60.6 percent sure that he exists.

East Germany has gotten less religious since the fall of communism -- and young people are less religious than their parents -- a trend that doesn't hold for other members of the Eastern Bloc. Russia, for instance, saw an 11.7 percent decline in atheism since 1991 and a 17.3 percent increase in belief in God. Israel saw the largest increase in belief in God (23 percent), possibly due to the influx of ultra-Orthodox Jews. The rate of atheism in the United States increased very slightly. Generally speaking, belief in God declined modestly in the 30 countries in the survey, nearly all of them in the developed world.

Die Welt digs in to the German findings:

Researchers found other reasons for atheism in the former East Germany, not least the deep mark left by the National Socialists and the Communists. But they also point to the fact that many Slavic and non-Orthodox communities present in the area since the Middle Ages were nonreligious; that the secularization movements during the Weimar Republic (1918-1933) were particularly strong in the states of Thuringia and Saxony; that the resistance of most DDR dissidents to the church was not seen, unlike the way it was perceived in Catholic Poland, as specifically religiously motivated.

The present study shows that Germany as a whole occupies a middle position on the atheism scale, as the belief in God in West Germany is still very strong – much more so than in neighboring countries like the Czech Republic or France, for example.

East Germans' general indifference to religion doesn't seem to apply to Chancellor Angela Merkel, who told a meeting of her Christian Democratic Union party in 2010, "We don’t have too much Islam; we have too little Christianity."

It will also be interesting to see whether long-term economic distress will have any effect on religious belief in countires like Greece, Italy, and Spain.

Morning Brief: Greek president struggles to form unity government

Posted: May 14, 2012, 3:24 pm by Uri Friedman

Greek president struggles to form unity government

Top news: After several failed attempts by Greece's political parties to form a coalition government following elections last week, Greek President Karolos Papoulias invited leaders to a final round of talks on Monday in an effort to avoid new elections.

But the chances of success appear slim, as the head of the radical leftist Syriza party refused to attend the negotiations and the moderate Democratic Left party said it would not be part of any unity deal that didn't include Syriza. European finance ministers are expected to discuss the political impasse when they meet in Brussels on Monday.

Many are worried that fresh voting in Greece -- which would likely take place in mid-June -- will further empower parties such as Syriza that oppose the terms of the country's bailout deal. This, in turn, could precipitate a Greek default and exit from the eurozone. These concerns are contributing to instability in financial markets.

Syria: Activists are reporting that at least 30 people -- including 23 Syrian soldiers -- died in overnight fighting in the central city of Rastan, a day after sectarian clashes fueled by the Syrian conflict erupted in the Lebanese city of Tripoli. On Monday, the European Union imposed a new round of sanctions on Syria in response to the ongoing violence.

Europe

Tens of thousands of Spaniards protested against government austerity measures in roughly 80 Spanish cities.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats lost elections in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia.

A group of prominent Russian writers led protesters in a march through Moscow.

Asia

A gunman killed Mullah Arsala Rahmani, a former Taliban minister and member of Afghanistan's High Peace Council.

A Mongolian court granted bail to former President Nambaryn Enkhbayar, who is engaged in a hunger strike over his detention on corruption charges.

Fifteen people died in a plane crash in Nepal.

Middle East

Yemen's new president reaffirmed his commitment to pursuing terrorists during a meeting with U.S. counterterrorism official John Brennan, as raids against militants continue in southern Yemen.

Human Rights Watch urged NATO to investigate a bombing in Libya last year that killed 72 civilians, according to the group.

Gulf leaders are meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss the idea of forming a union.

Africa

Uganda captured a senior commander in Joseph Kony's Lord's Resistance Army.

South Sudanese refugees in Sudan have begun returning to Juba.

Nigerian police arrested a Boko Haram commander in the northern city of Kano.

Americas

Mexican authorities discovered 49 mutilated bodies along a highway near Monterrey.

Three top traders at JPMorgan Chase will resign after the bank posted a $2 billion loss last week.

Colombia's FARC rebels promised to release the French journalist Romeo Langlois.

Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP/Getty Images

The Election 2012 Weekly Report: The race evolves

Posted: May 11, 2012, 12:59 am by Joshua Keating

The gay marriage fallout

President Barack Obama made some history this week by becoming the first sitting president to support the legalization of same-sex marriage. Obama's announcement, made during an interview with ABC News, came a day after North Carolinians voted in favor of a constitutional amendment banning both gay marriage and civil unions. Mitt Romney reiterated his opposition, saying, "I believe marriage is a relationship between a man and a woman."

Obama's statement has shifted the campaign rhetoric away from the economy and foreign policy to domestic social issues, but it may also have international ramifications. A number of world leaders responded to Obama's announcement. Germany's openly gay foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle, said "I welcome this not just personally but also in the name of the German government." Following Obama's statement, New Zealand Prime Minister John Key said for the first time that he was not opposed to gay marriage. Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard said she remains opposed. Newly elected French President Francois Hollande plans to push for the legalization of gay marriage, to which his predecessor was opposed.

The Vatican has not yet responded to Obama's change of heart, but two months ago, Pope Benedict XVI warned U.S. bishops not to surrender to "powerful political and cultural currents seeking to alter the legal definition of marriage." Last December, the Obama administration announced that it would tie U.S. foreign aid and diplomacy to the promotion of gay rights around the world, a move that provoked anger from some foreign leaders.

Romney on the attack

Romney continued to dial up his criticism of the Obama administration for trying to "make friends with some of the world's worst actors" in an interview with Sean Hannity on Tuesday. Romney has been hesitant to call for U.S. military intervention in Syria, but in the interview described it as "one of the great opportunities for America, and for the world, right now" and said he believes the United States should take the lead in efforts to remove President Bashar al-Assad from power.

Obama courts the establishment

The president held an off-the-record meeting on foreign policy this week with nine prominent editors and columnists. Though mostly on the liberal side of the political spectrum, the group included Newsweek's Peter Beinart and The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg, who have staked out starkly differing positions on the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Following the meeting, attendee David Ignatius of the Washington Post wrote that the president is campaigning with "a sense of success and political advantage in the foreign-policy areas that have often spelled trouble for Democrats." He also suggested that climate change, nuclear weapons reduction, development assistance to Africa, and the Mideast peace process might be priorities for Obama's second term if he is reelected.

Summit week

It will be a big week of summitry for the Obama administration with the G-8 meeting at Camp David on May 18 and 19, than the NATO summit in Chicago beginning on May 20. The week has not gotten off to a particularly auspicious start, however, with newly elected Russian President Vladimir Putin announcing that he will not be attending, instead sending Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev in his place. Many are reading Putin's decision as a slap-in-the-face to the Obama administration, particularly as the conference had been moved away from Chicago, where the NATO meeting is being held, partly in deference to Putin's opposition to NATO missile defense plans.

Plans for the transition out of Afghanistan will be on the agenda for NATO, but much of the coverage will likely focused by planned protests by the Occupy movement.

The latest from FP:

Jacob Heilbrunn on the decline and fall of departing Senator Richard Lugar.

Uri Friedman on the countries were gay marriage is already legal.

David Rothkopf on why the Chen Guangchen episode will ultimately be seen as a victory for U.S. foreign policy.

William Tobey on why Vice President Joe Biden is "isolated from reality" on Iran.

Joshua E. Keating on Michele Bachmann's short-lived Swiss citizenship.

Italian anarchists shoot nuclear executive

Posted: May 11, 2012, 12:53 am by Joshua Keating

This would certainly seem to be an escalation:

An anarchist group claimed responsibility on Friday for kneecapping an Italian nuclear engineering executive and warned it would strike another seven times at the firm's parent company, Finmeccanica.

In a four-page letter sent to an Italian newspaper, the group, calling itself the Olga Nucleus of the Informal Anarchist Federation-International Revolutionary Front, said two of its members had shot Roberto Adinolfi, the CEO of Ansaldo Nucleare, in Genoa on Monday.[...]

The letter takes aim at Adinolfi, calling him a "sorcerer of the atomic industry" and criticising him for claiming in an interview that none of the deaths during the Japanese earthquake and tsunami in 2011 were due to nuclear incidents.

"Adinolfi knows well that it is only a matter of time before a European Fukushima kills on our continent," the letter stated.

The group, named after an imprisoned Greek anarchist, has a pretty substantial track record:

The same anarchist group claimed last year to have sent letter bombs targeting, among others, Deutsche Bank's boss Josef Ackermann. One of these blew off a finger of the director general of Italy's tax enforcement agency Equitalia in December.

On Friday, a suspect package containing powder but no detonator was sent to an Equitalia office in Rome while in Naples a citizen protest outside tax authority offices degenerated into clashes with the police.

As I noted after a similarly named Greek anarchist group sent off a series of mail bombs in 2010, thse groups seem to be fairly random in their choice of targets. Hopefully, the level of violence won't escalate further. (The U.S. recently witnessed its own brand of alleged anarchist violence when five men were arrested and charged with attempting to blow up a bridge in northeast Ohio.)

Last October, I spoke with Italian columnist and satirist Beppe about Italy's "Black Bloc" protesters.

Morning Brief: Egypt holds first presidential debate

Posted: May 11, 2012, 3:17 pm by Uri Friedman

Egypt holds first presidential debate

Top news: Just two weeks before the first round of voting in the country's presidential election, Egypt held the Arab world's first televised presidential debate on Thursday night. The four-hour event featured Amr Moussa, a former Arab League chief, and Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a former member of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The two top candidates discussed the economy, security, and the role Islamic law should play in government, and criticized each other's backgrounds. Moussa highlighted the oath of loyalty that Aboul Fotouh once swore to the chairman of the Brotherhood, while Aboul Fotouh noted that Moussa had long served as a diplomat under Hosni Mubarak. "Those who take part in creating the problem couldn't be part of the solution," he declared.

Friday marked the first day that Egyptians abroad can start voting in the presidential election.

Greece: Evangelos Venizelos, the leader of Greece's main socialist party, is engaged in a last-ditch effort to form a coalition government. If he fails, all parties will have one final chance to strike a unity deal before new elections, which would likely benefit a radical leftist party that opposes the country's bailout, are called.

Middle East

The head of the opposition Syrian National Council blamed a double bombing in Damascus on al Qaeda forces linked to the Syrian regime.

Early results from Algeria's legislative elections indicate a strong showing by the ruling National Liberation Front and an Islamist alliance.

The spy who helped foil a plot to bomb a U.S.-bound airliner is reportedly a British national, and British intelligence may have helped recruit him.

Asia

An attacker in an Afghan Army uniform killed a NATO soldier in eastern Afghanistan.

Protesters gathered at the Chinese embassy in Manila as a dispute between China and the Philippines over an island in the South China Sea escalated.

Rescuers found no evidence of survivors in the wreckage of a new Russian passenger jet that crashed in Indonesia.

Europe

The European Commission predicted that the eurozone economy will contract this year and warned that Spain could miss its deficit targets.

Rebekah Brooks, the former chief executive of News International, testified before a British inquiry into press ethics.

Britain is seeking to scale back a provision of the impending EU oil embargo on Iran.

Americas

JPMorgan Chase disclosed a $2 billion trading loss.

Peru's interior and defense ministers resigned over a botched operation against Shining Path rebels.

Argentina passed a landmark gender rights law that will make it easier for people to change their legal and physical gender identity.

Africa

Somali pirates hijacked a Greek-owned oil tanker off the coast of Oman.

More than 40 people were injured in clashes between police and protesters in Guinea.

West African mediators met with leaders in Guinea-Bissau to negotiate a return to civilian rule.

Gianluigi Guercia/AFP/Getty Images

Michele Bachmann is no longer Swiss

Posted: May 10, 2012, 11:36 pm by Joshua Keating

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann's 53 days of Swiss citizenship have apparently come to an end:

"I sent a letter to the Swiss Consulate requesting withdrawal of my dual Swiss citizenship, which was conferred upon me by operation of Swiss law when I married my husband in 1978," she said. "I took this action because I want to make it perfectly clear: I was born in America and I am a proud American citizen. I am, and always have been, 100 percent committed to our United States Constitution and the United States of America. As the daughter of an Air Force veteran, stepdaughter of an Army veteran and sister of a Navy veteran, I am proud of my allegiance to the greatest nation the world has ever known."

The statement seems slightly misleading. According to the original Politico story, which included confirmation from Bachmann's office, she became Swiss not in 1978 but in March after her husband applied for citizenship. Marcus Bachmann had been eligible for citizenship since birth because of his parents' nationality, but hadn't claimed it until this year.

I'm not sure what the requirements are for renouncing Swiss citizenship and the migration office's website is not particularly helpful, but for U.S. citizenship it's kind of a hassle:

During a 10-minute renunciation ceremony in a booth with bullet-proof glass windows, embassy staff ask exiting Americans whether they are acting voluntarily and understand the implications of giving up their passports. They pay a fee of $450 to renounce and may incur an “exit tax” on unrealized capital gains if their assets exceed $2 million or their average annual U.S. tax bill is more than $151,000 during the past five years. They receive a certificate within three months, telling them they are no longer American citizens and entitled to the services and protection of the U.S. government.

It should be noted that for immigrants to Switzerland, and even children of immigrants born in Switzerland, getting Swiss citizenship is not nearly as easy as it apparently was for the Bachmanns.

A Jewish pilgrimage returns to Tunisia

Posted: May 10, 2012, 10:34 pm by Allison Good

Though the powerful and prominent Islamist Ennahda party has sent mixed messages about its attitude toward Tunisia's 1,500-strong Jewish population, President Moncef Marzouki's government has made an extraordinary effort this year to promote the Hiloula, an annual pilgrimage to El Ghriba synagogue on the island of Djerba that commemorates the death of second-century rabbi Shimon Bar Yohai, the father of the Kabbalah tradition. The two-day event was canceled last year for security reasons due to the popular uprisings that ousted Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, but it remains "the barometer of expectations for the coming tourist season," according to the Guardian.

Before the revolution, the Hiloula typically brought "almost 10,000 foreign visitors" every year, but the website Tunisia Live reported yesterday that the numbers are significantly smaller this year:

"So far, no more than two hundred Jewish pilgrims have joined the Hiloula.... According to our reporter in El Ghriba, police and journalists outnumbered the pilgrims, mainly Jewish Tunisians, who attended the event."

The Tunisian government has deployed a large security force to the area surrounding the synagogue, the oldest in Africa. Ten years ago, al Qaeda militants bombed the synagogue, killing 21 and wounding 30. Marzouki visited El Ghriba in April for a memorial ceremony, during which he declared that violence against Tunisian Jews was "unacceptable." Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali also voiced his commitment to a tolerant Tunisia:

"Tunisia is an open and tolerant society, we will be proud to have Jewish pilgrims visit El Ghriba as they have in the past."

The government of Israel, on the other hand, apparently sees things differently. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a travel warning earlier this month advising Israelis to avoid Djerba, citing a "specific-high rating" terror threat to Jews and Israelis. Hiloula may end today, but whether Marzouki can convince the rest of the country to practice what he preaches remains uncertain.

Argentina passes landmark transgender rights law

Posted: May 10, 2012, 9:06 pm by Joshua Keating

The big political news in the U.S. today is that President Obama has finally "evolved" -- with a push from Joe Biden -- into supporting same-sex marriage. Obama is still sticking with a states-rights position on this issue and is unlikely to push for action at the federal level, but as Uri points out, if the United States were to legalize gay marriage, it would be the 11th country in the world to do so. It would be the third in the Western Hemisphere after Argentina and Canada. (It's also legal in Mexico City. Plus, Uruguay and Brazil both recognize civil unions.

Obama's change of heart probably wouldn't impress anyone in Argentina, where full marriage for same-sex couples has been legal since 2010. Today, the country went a step further:

Adults who want sex-change surgery or hormone therapy in Argentina will be able to get it as part of their public or private health care plans under a gender rights law approved Wednesday.

Senators approved the Gender Identity law by a vote of 55 to zero with one abstention and more than a dozen senators declaring themselves absent — the same margin that approved a "death with dignity" law earlier in the day.

It gives people the legal right to officially change their gender without having to go to court for a judge's approval, and obligates health care companies to provide them with surgery or hormone therapy on demand.

Other countries, including neighboring Uruguay, have passed gender rights laws, but Argentina's "is in the forefront of the world" because of these benefits it guarantees, said Cesar Cigliutti, president of the Homosexual Community of Argentina.

Treatments related to gender changes will be included in the "Obligatory Medical Plan," meaning that both private and public health care providers will not be able to charge extra for the services.

Sex reassignment surgery is covered by a growing number of health plans in the United States, but it's pretty remarkable that a bill like this didn't get a single no vote in a 92 percent Catholic country.

STASI records suggest IKEA used Cuban prison labor in the 1980s

Posted: May 10, 2012, 6:22 pm by Joshua Keating

This story involving labor abuse, Cold War intrigue, and everyone's favorite discount furniture empire has been brewing for about a week but has gotten surprisingly little attention in the U.S. The Miami Herald reported last Friday:

A report that Swedish furniture and housewares company IKEA employed Cuban prisoners to build tables and sofas in the 1980s has provoked a strong reaction among Miami exiles.

The German daily newspaper, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, of Frankfurt, recently reported that in September 1987 Cuban authorities negotiated for 35,000 dining tables, 10,000 children’s tables and an unspecified number of sofas to be built for IKEA.

The newspaper said German reporters found the information while reviewing archives of the Cold War era and that East German officials facilitated the deal with Cuba.…

According to information in the archives, East German officials met with Lieutenant Enrique Sánchez, identified as the person in charge of a Cuban agency known as EMIAT, which supplied patio furniture to diplomatic houses and high-ranking Cuban officials. They discussed furniture to be built “in prison facilities of the Ministry of Interior.”

IKEA has already launched an internal investigation into allegations that it contracted to use East German prison labor during the 1970s and 1980s and now says it will broaden the scope of the inquiry.

According to a follow-up story today, records kept by East Germany's infamous STASI show that "an IKEA subsidiary in Berlin and an East German company had contracted for Cuban prison labor to build 45,000 tables and 4,000 sofa groupings in 1987" as part of a larger deal between companies run by Cuba's Ministry of the Interior and the East German government. The deal also "involved Cuban antiques, cigars and guns, according to a researcher in Berlin."

The six Cuban-American members of the U.S. Congress have written a letter demanding a meeting with IKEA executives.

This report is just the latest in a slew of bad press for the Swedish furniture giant in recent years, including allegations of bribery in Russia and a recent book alleging that founder Ingvar Kamprad's past ties to Swedish Nazi groups may have gone on longer than he has admitted.

Morning Brief: Double bombing hits Damascus intelligence center

Posted: May 10, 2012, 3:25 pm by Joshua Keating

Double bombing hits Damascus intelligence center

Top news: Two bombings outside an intelligence complex in Damascus killed at least 40 people and injured 170, according to Syrian television. It was the largest and deadliest single attack since the Syrian uprising began in March 2011.

No one immediately took responsibility for the bombing, but state media in Syria has suggested it is the work of terrorists supported by Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Opposition groups blamed Bashar al-Assad's regime, saying it was trying to frighten people out of joining the opposition.

On Wednesday, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said there was only a narrow window to avoid a full-scale civil war in Syria: "There is no escaping the reality that we see every day. Innocent civilians dying, government troops and heavy armor in city streets, growing numbers of arrests and allegations of brutal torture, an alarming upsurge in the use of IEDs and other explosive devices throughout the country."

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, 849 people have been killed in a U.N. imposed truce in April, not including those killed in today's blast.

Ten rebels were also killed overnight when thanks shelled a village in the northwestern province of Idlib.

U.S. politics: In a major reversal, President Barack Obama said he believes gay marriage should be legal.

Middle East

Bahraini activists blocked roads with burning tires to demand the release of detained female activists.
Polls opened in Algeria's parliamentary elections.
Israel's parliament approved a coalition deal between the Likud and Kadima parties.

Europe

Greece's center-left PASOK party will make a final attempt to form a coalition government.
A British parliamentary panel will question former David Cameron aide Andy Coulson on his role in the News of the World phone hacking scandal.
Russia says it has foiled a terrorist plot to attack the Sochi Olympics.

Asia

The Japanese government agreed to spend $12.6 billion to bail out Fukushima nuclear plant operator TEPCO.
Chinese activist Chen Guangchen said local officials in his town were carrying out reprisal attacks on his family.
The International Committee of the Red Cross has suspended work in Peshawar and Karachi.

Americas

Eighteen mutilated bodies were found in the western Mexican state of Jalisco.
Another prominent journalists has been kidnapped in Honduras.
Argentina's senate approved a new "dignified death" law.

Africa

Burundi's corruption ombudsman says he has uncovered a plot to kill him.
South Sudan accused Khartoum of bombing its territory in violation of a U.N. resolution.
Thousands of Mauritanian opposition activists participated in anti-government protests.

LOUAI BESHARA/AFP/GettyImages

Students for a Free Tibet responds

Posted: May 9, 2012, 7:30 pm by Joshua Keating

On Monday, I posted some thoughts about the death of Adam "MCA" Yauch and the future of the global Tibetan independence movement. Tenzin Dorjee, executive director of Students for a Free Tibet, sent in this response:

The Tibetan Freedom concerts educated countless young people about Tibet, thousands of whom went on to become leaders and organizers in Students for a Free Tibet, the group at the forefront of the protests against Chinese President-in-waiting Xi Jinping's visit to Washington, DC in January 2012.

The youth has always been a driving force behind nonviolent revolutions. We've witnessed this again in the uprisings that swept the Arab world. The youth movement for Tibet has not faded; it has deepened, taking root across Tibet where a new generation of young Tibetans are writing, blogging, protesting, agitating, and rising up against China's colonial occupation. They know that Tibetans, not the West, will free Tibet. But allies in Western democracies can help us along the way by facilitating and speeding up the process.

Adam Yauch played a landmark role in building grassroots global solidarity for Tibet. This global solidarity, in turn, largely inspired the rebirth of hope in Tibet. This hope has breathed new life into the Tibetan resistance, which manifested itself in the 2008 uprising and the growing resistance movement that continues today. Therefore, Adam will be remembered not only for his brilliance as a musician but also for his unparalleled contribution to the movement that will bring about a free Tibet, and forever enshrine nonviolence as the most effective weapon against oppression.

Tenzin Dorjee
Executive Director of Students for a Free Tibet

Michele Bachmann is Swiss now

Posted: May 9, 2012, 6:21 pm by Joshua Keating

Sure, why not?

Arthur Honegger, a reporter for public broadcaster Schweizer Fernsehen, told POLITICO the Swiss consulate in Chicago has confirmed that the former Republican presidential candidate became a citizen March 19. The Swiss consulate in Chicago covers the state of Minnesota, which Bachmann represents.

Marcus Bachmann, the congresswoman’s husband since 1978, reportedly was eligible for Swiss citizenship due to his parents’ nationality — but only registered it with the Swiss government Feb. 15. Once the process was finalized on March 19, Michele automatically became a citizen as well, according to Honegger.[...]

Bachmann's office confirmed that the congresswoman had received Swiss citizenship, and attributed the decision to her children.

"Congresswoman Bachmann's husband is of Swiss descent, so she has been eligible for dual-citizenship since they got married in 1978. However, recently some of their children wanted to exercise their eligibility for dual-citizenship so they went through the process as a family," said Bachmann spokesperson Becky Rogness.

The timing of this is pretty funny given all the fuss over Mitt Romney's Swiss bank account. Super PACs could presumably have had a pretty good time with the all-American congresswoman's dual citizenship. Marcus Bachmann seems to have waited until after his wife dropped out of the race to make his application.

There's nothing in the U.S. Constitution that prevents members of Congress -- or presidents for that matter -- from holding dual citizenship, so long as they don't renounce their U.S. nationality, though it's obviously pretty unusual. (In the video above, Bachmann rules">[www.youtube.com] out the possibility of running for office in Switzerland, where she would now be eligible.) When Rahm Emanuel -- who had served as a civilian volunteer for the Israel Defense Forces and whose father was Israeli -- ran for Congress in 2002 he faced untrue attacks alleging that he held dual citizenship.

Google searches for current dual citizens in Congress just turns up a lot of anti-Semitic garbage. Anyone know of any actual examples before Bachmann?

Morning Brief: Prospects for Greek coalition government dim

Posted: May 9, 2012, 3:37 pm by Uri Friedman

Prospects for Greek coalition government dim

Top news: Leftist leader Alexis Tsipras, whose party finished second in Greece's elections on Sunday, will spend Wednesday meeting with officials from the country's two major parties -- PASOK and New Democracy -- as part of his effort to form a coalition government.

But such a deal is highly unlikely since Tsipras has called for nullifying the terms of Greece's bailout by the European Union and International Monetary Fund, which both PASOK and New Democracy support, albeit with reservations. New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras, who failed to broker a solution to Greece's political impasse on Monday, has warned that pulling out of Greece's bailout commitments could "lead to immediate internal collapse and international bankruptcy, with the inevitable exit from Europe."

If Tsipras doesn't secure an agreement, new elections could be held within weeks. In the meantime, the political tumult in Greece is roiling markets.

Foiled bomb plot: New reports suggest that the suicide bomber tasked with attacking a U.S.-bound airplane by an al Qaeda affiliate in Yemen was actually a Saudi intelligence agent who was cooperating with the CIA. American officials have expressed concern that the leaked details about the plot could undermine U.S. efforts to partner with foreign intelligence services.

Middle East

An explosion struck a Syrian military vehicle that was escorting a convoy of U.N. observers, a day after envoy Kofi Annan warned of "serious violations" of the ceasefire in Syria.

In the first test of Israel's new governing coalition, religious and secular parties clashed over draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews.

Armed men attacked the offices of Libya's interim prime minister in an apparent response to not receiving payment for fighting Muammar al-Qaddafi's forces.

Europe

Jailed Ukrainian opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko was transferred to a hospital.

The Russian parliament confirmed Dmitry Medvedev as prime minister, though a third of parliamentarians voted against the nomination.

Serbia's Socialists and Democratic Party formed a governing coalition and agreed to support President Boris Tadic in an upcoming runoff election.

Asia

The Taliban killed five Afghan education officials in an ambush.

Dissident Chen Guangcheng said Chinese officials have begun helping him with his application to study in the United States.

An Iranian delegation struck trade deals with India shortly after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pressed India to scale back commercial relations with Iran.

Americas

The U.S. Treasury Department added two sons of Mexican drug lord Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman to its drug kingpin blacklist.

The Colombian government refused to negotiate with FARC rebels regarding the release of a French journalist.

Jamaica's two major political parties are investigating whether they received money from a convicted fraudster.

Africa

The South Sudanese military accused Sudan of renewing its airstrikes against the South.

A South African judge ruled that the country's police and prosecutors must investigate Zimbabwean officials over torture charges.

An Islamist group that took seven Algerian diplomats hostage in Mali issued a 30-day ultimatum to Algiers.

Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP/Getty Images

The fog of terror [Updated]

Posted: May 8, 2012, 1:04 am by Joshua Keating

On Monday, the AP broke the story that the CIA had disrupted a plot to bomb a U.S.-bound airliner with a similar explosive to the one used by the notorious "underwear bomber" in 2010. We know that like that failed bombing attempt, the plot was likely tied to the Yemen-based Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and that the bomb bore the signature of master bombmaker Ibrahim Hassan al-Asiri. But beyond that, the accounts seem to differ on what exactly happened. Here's the AP's version:

The CIA thwarted an ambitious plot by al-Qaida's affiliate in Yemen to destroy a U.S.-bound airliner using a bomb with a sophisticated new design around the one-year anniversary of the killing of Osama bin Laden, The Associated Press has learned.[...]

The would-be suicide bomber, based in Yemen, had not yet picked a target or bought his plane tickets when the CIA stepped in and seized the bomb, officials said. It's not immediately clear what happened to the alleged bomber.

But according to the L.A. Times, there was no evidence that U.S.-bound airliners had been targeted:

U.S. officials said Monday that no one was captured by U.S. agencies as part of the operation. The officials emphasized that they found no sign of an active plot to use the new bomb design against U.S. aviation or U.S.-bound jetliners.

The device was given to the CIA by a government outside Yemen, officials said. The White House said President Obama was informed of the discovery in April by John Brennan, his top counter-terrorism advisor, and was assured it "did not pose a threat to the public."

The New York Times version makes it sound as if the plot was much further along:

The intelligence services detected the scheme as it took shape in mid-April, officials said, and the explosive device was seized in the Middle East outside Yemen about a week ago before it could be deployed.

It appeared that Qaeda leaders had dispatched a suicide bomber from Yemen with instructions to board a flight to the United States with the device under his clothes, but that he had been stopped before reaching an airport. Representative Peter T. King, Republican of New York and chairman of the Homeland Security Committee, said counterterrorism officials had said of the bomber: “We don’t have to worry about him anymore.” He is alive, officials said, but they would not to say whether he was in foreign custody.

And according to an ABC news report today, the device was given to U.S. officials not by a foreign government but by an "inside source who secretly worked for the CIA and several other intelligence agencies" and brought the device to Saudi Arabia.

As all the accounts note, officials say the plot was not connected to the anniversary of the Osama Bin Laden's death and therefore does not contradict earlier statements made by officials that they were aware of no active plots connected to the anniversary. White House counterterrorism John Brennan went a step further on ABC News's "Good Morning America" today, saying that the plot was not itself an "active threat." The Department of Homeland Security was also quoted in the Times saying yesterday saying it was aware of “no specific, credible information regarding an active terrorist plot against the U.S. at this time."

From all indications, this isn't a case like the series of recent domestic "terror plots" in the United States that were encouraged and pushed along by FBI informants. There was a real bomb made by a real bombmaker and, according to the Times at least, instructions from al Qaeda leaders on using it. I think some clarity on what an "active" plot is would probably help, though.

Update: A new L.A. Times article provides some clarity:

Saudi Arabia’s intelligence agency, working closely with the CIA, used an informant to pose as a would-be suicide bomber. His job was to convince the Al Qaeda franchise in Yemen to give him a new kind of non-metallic bomb that the militants were designing to easily pass through airport security.

But the double agent instead arranged to deliver the explosive device to U.S. and other intelligence authorities waiting in another country, officials said Tuesday. The agent is now safely outside Yemen and is being debriefed.

According to the article, the same operation provided the intelligence that led to the drone strike that killed AQAP operative Fahd Mohammed Ahmed Quso on Sunday. This would definitely clear up the "active plot" question.

Why China expelled Al-Jazeera

Posted: May 8, 2012, 9:21 pm by Isaac Stone Fish

Yesterday, Al-Jazeera English announced that it would be closing its bureau in Beijing after the Chinese government refused to renew the press credentials and visa of its China correspondent, Melissa Chan. Chan, based in Beijing since 2007, has an excellent reputation as a journalist, reporting hard-hitting stories on black jails, the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, and Chinese land grabs. (Disclosure: I worked with Chan on the board of the Foreign Correspondent's Club of China and consider her a friend.)

Chan's expulsion is believed to be the first for a foreign journalist based in China since the 1998 deportation of a Japanese journalist; writing in the New Yorker, Evan Osnos described it as the revival of "a Soviet-era strategy that will undermine [China's] own efforts to project soft power," and a clear step backwards for Beijing.

That it is, no doubt. But Chan also fits into the troubling pattern of the foreigners Beijing has targeted over the last decade: those the Chinese government views of having less protection because of their ethnicity and nationality; often with Chinese backgrounds. It appears that someone in the Chinese government wanted to give a warning to journalists without causing an international incident; Chan, a Chinese-American working for a Qatari-based television station, seemed to be an appropriate target. The thinking seems to be that a foreign government will more loudly protest the mistreatment of a citizen who is both born and raised in its own country and working for a domestic company.

It's not just journalists who are affected. In December 2009, China executed Akmal Shaikh, a British citizen accused of smuggling eight pounds of heroin into China. The execution of Shaikh, the first for a European in China in 50 years and despite protests from the British government, came as China wanted to appear tough against crime; Shaikh also happened to have been born in Pakistan.

In 2010 the Chinese government sentenced Stern Hu, a Chinese-born Australian who formerly ran Rio Tinto's iron ore operations in China, to 10 years in prison for accepting bribes and stealing trade secrets, in a case widely viewed as political; his former boss said Hu had been "thrown to the wolves." Xue Feng, a Chinese-born American citizen was sentenced to eight years in prison in July 2010 under China's menacingly vague state secrets laws for purchasing an oil database.

Following the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989, a handful of journalists, including Americans working for American papers and Brits working for British papers, were expelled. British-born Andrew Higgins was expelled from China in 1991 while working for London's Independent newspaper for supposedly possessing confidential information. Some journalists expelled around that time were let back in, like John Pomfret, a former Washington Post bureau chief, kicked out in 1989 for what authorities called "stealing state secrets and violating martial law provisions" and what he called writing "about Tiananmen Square." Unlike Pomfret, Higgins, who now works for the Post, has not been given the standard long-term visa to report in China, and instead covers the region from Hong Kong.

The pattern seems to be that powerful countries like the United States will be less likely to protest the mistreatment of an American working for a non-American company, or a foreigner working for an American organization, when it becomes a more complicated procedure of coordinating responses between embassies and ministries. Executives and reporters with Chinese backgrounds have many advantages operating in China. Besides language skills and local networks, they can blend in a country where different color skin clearly identifies one as an outsider. Anecdotally speaking, they seem to be given less leniency when they don't follow China's laws; like they're supposed to "know better."

Many foreign news bureaus are hosted in two diplomatic compounds in the Jianguomen neighborhood. As a reporter based out of the compound for two years, I entered freely, while foreign reporters who looked Chinese (and, of course, those that were Chinese), often had to show their IDs to get in. Injustice in China affects more than just the locals.

Swedish politicians don't believe in global warming either

Posted: May 8, 2012, 7:29 pm by Joshua Keating

The U.S. can often seem like something of an outlier when it comes to politicians and climate change. After all, it was major news in the campaign when Jon Huntsman tweeted that he trusts "scientists on global warming." It was such a controversial assertion that he later walked it back.

But U.S. political culture on this issue may not actually be all that unique:

Six of ten local politicians in Sweden doubt whether human activity is to blame for global warming, a new study has found.

In addition, one out of ten municipal politicians and local government managers totally deny that the phenomenon of global warming even exists, according to a survey carried out by the Swedish Defence Research Agency (Försvarets forskningsinstitutet – FOI).

"This is clearly not good. These people feel like they don't have to take responsibility for environmental work in their municipalities," FOI's head of climate and energy research, Annika Carlsson-Kanyama, told the Dagens Nyheter (DN) newspaper.

The findings come from a survey carried out by FOI looking into how local decision-makers in Sweden view the issue of climate change.

Swedish politicians actually seem to be a bit more skeptical on this issue than voters. According to a 2009 Gallup Poll, 64 percent of Swedes believe climate change is caused by human activity.

Despite their green reputation, European countries don't actually rank that high in terms of the number of citizens who believe in anthropogenic global warming. According to Gallup's numbers, Greece and Spain are the only where over 70 percent believe it. (Maybe it's a coastal thing?) The most accepting of climate science seem to be East Asian and South American countries.

Belarus president takes bold anti-freedom stance

Posted: May 8, 2012, 7:03 pm by Joshua Keating

The concepts of popular sovereignty and democratic legitimacy are so pervasive in world politics that even the most authoritarian regimes usually give some deference to them. Even North Korea has the word "democratic" in its official name, for instance. So it's always a bit surprising when a leader just flat out says he doesn't believe in freedom. RFE/RL reports:

In his annual state of the nation address, Lukashenka said that Belarus has no use for revolutionary activities which "lead to chaos and bloodshed."

He added, "The great Dostoevsky wrote that there is nothing more unbearable for a person than freedom. And of course he was right."

The actual quote, said by the Grand Inquisitor in The Brothers Karamazov, is "Didst thou forget that man prefers peace, and even death, to freedom of choice in the knowledge of good and evil? Nothing is more seductive for man than his freedom of conscience, but nothing is a greater cause of suffering."

There's a lot to think about in that, but it's not exactly a strategy for governance.

In the March/April issue of FP, Thomas De Waal discussed what Gogol, Chekhov and Dostoyevsky can explain about the post-Soviet world.

Morning Brief: Greek leftists attempt to form government

Posted: May 8, 2012, 3:24 pm by Joshua Keating

Greek leftists attempt to form government

Top news: Greece's left-wing Syriza bloc will have a chance to form a coalition government after center-right, pro-austerity parties failed to do so following a drubbing in Sunday's Greek election. Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras, whose anti-austerity, anti-bailout party finished a surprise second place in the vote, went into talks with President Karolos Papoulias on Tuesday and is expected to be given three days to form a government. The conservative New Democracy party failed after only one day.

"We want to create a government of leftist forces in order to escape the bailout leading us to bankruptcy," Tsipras said. However, his chances of being able to form a coalition are slim, raising the possibility of repeat elections, likely on June 17. "The country is heading at high speed towards catastrophe," an editorial in Kathimerini said of that possibility.

Despite the hopes of many voters that a left-wing coalition could reject the terms of the EU bailout or at least renegotiate them, a spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the country must stick to the plan. "The agreements must be adhered to. They are the best way forward for Greece," he said.

Meanwhile, the far right Golden Dawn party, known for its swastika-style logo and extreme anti-immigrant rhetoric, is planning its own agenda after winning 21 seats in Sunday's vote. In his victory speech Sunday, party leader Nikos Michaloliakos called for the "liberation" of part of neighboring Albania.

Good day for the Pirates

Posted: May 7, 2012, 10:12 pm by Joshua Keating

Understandably, the very scary success of the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party in Greece's parliamentary eleciton has gotten more attention, but local elections in Germany also showed a growing presence for another once-fringe political movement:

The young Pirate party appeared to emerge as the biggest winners in Schleswig-Holstein with 8 percent of the vote, according to the exit poll. This would be more than enough votes to usher the young party into its third state regional legislature in as many elections, after wins of 8.9 percent in Berlin and of 7.4 percent in Saarland.

With their emphasis on transparency and Internet issues, the Pirates continued to draw disgruntled voters from all of the traditional parties, the exit polls showed, making Schleswig-Holstein, home to about 2.8 million people, the largest state where they are now represented at the regional level.

Nicolas Kulish looked at the German Pirates' emergence as a political force to be reckoned with in Sunday's New York Times:

A recent survey found that nearly one in three Germans would in principle be willing to vote for the Pirates; they even nosed ahead of the Green Party in several opinion surveys as Germany’s third most popular party. The Greens were once the insurgent activists on the political scene. Now founding members from the ’68 generation have started collecting their pensions. A Green campaign poster with a cursor arrow pointing at a Facebook thumbs-up icon carried a whiff of desperation to keep up with the Pirates.

Though they were once considered something of an eccentric oddity on the political scene, the anti-Pirate backlash in Germay seems to be growing in instensity. One member of parliament recently noted that “the rise of the Pirate Party is as fast as that of the N.S.D.A.P.” — the Nazi Party — “between 1928 and 1933.”

The Nazi comparison seems a bit extreme, though a few members have been revealed to have far-right sympathy. But a number of artists and leftists -- seemingly the party's core constituency -- may be turning on them as well, according to Der Spiegel.

Take the 82-year-old poet and former Marxist Magnus Enzensberger:

"Political? No, politically there's nothing there," Enzensberger growled over the telephone. "And certainly nothing revolutionary. It's actually surprisingly bourgeois. Like our grandparents, who were happy when they could get something for free."

The Pirates have proven they can make a showing in an election. The next test is if they can survive the scrutiny and criticism a semi-mainstream party inevitably receives.

Does the West still want to free Tibet?

Posted: May 7, 2012, 8:09 pm by Joshua Keating

Adam Yauch, who passed away last week at the age of 47, will of course be remembered primarily as MCA from the Beastie Boys. But his role as the music industry's primary advocate for Tibetan independence may be a close second:

In addition to his career with the Beastie Boys, Yauch was heavily involved in the movement to free Tibet. A founder of the Milarepa Fund, Yauch was instrumental in the first Tibetan Freedom Concert in San Francisco's Golden Gate Park 1996, which drew 100,000 people – the largest U.S. benefit concert since 1985's Live Aid.

As Slate's David Weigel recalls, the concerts "became punchlines, eventually, but they started as expressly political events intended to sign up new recruits to a human rights cause that the government (then the glorious Clinton-Gingrich cohabitation) didn't want to touch."

Yauch, a practicing Buddhist whose wife was Tibetan, was uniquely committed to that cause. But with his passing, it's hard not to be struck by the degree to which Tibet has faded in prominence among politically committed Americans. With over 30 self-immolations in Tibet over the past year, it's not as if the controversy has gone away.

Pro-Tibet activists are still there, witness the protests during Xi Jinping's recent visit to Washington, including four activists who were arrested after unfurling a banner on the Arlington Memorial Bridge. But since the last U.S. Tibetan Freedom Concert in 1999, the issue hasn't really commanded the Kony 2012-level interest it once garnered from young Americans.

There are probably several reasons for this. The Dalai Lama, the most visible living symbol of Tibet's national aspirations, has been gradually retreating from his political role. As Weigel notes, many of those involved in the Free Tibet movement, including the Beasties, turned their attention to issues closer to home during the Bush administration.

Then there's the increasing allure of China for the entertainment industry. The prize of China's $2-billion-a-year film market has made Hollywood studios a lot less likely to back projects like Kundun or Seven Years in Tibet. That's true of musicians as well: Bob Dylan and the Rolling Stones have been on their best behavior during recent tours of China, possibily for fear of getting the Björk treatment.

I would imagine the MCA's of tomorrow might prefer to attach themselves to global movements that don't risk alienating a billion potential customers.

Morning Brief: Hollande defeats Sarkozy in French presidential election

Posted: May 7, 2012, 3:34 pm by Uri Friedman

Hollande defeats Sarkozy in French presidential election

Top story: Francois Hollande beat French President Nicolas Sarkozy with just over 51 percent of the vote in a runoff election on Sunday, becoming the first Socialist to win the presidency since Francois Mitterrand left office in 1995. Sarkozy, the first French president since 1981 to not win a second term, will officially transfer power to Hollande on May 15.

"Europe is watching us, austerity can no longer be the only option," Hollande declared in a victory speech. The president-elect's emphasis on expanding a European Union fiscal compact to include pro-growth measures resonated with French voters, and news reports are casting Sarkozy as the latest European leader to be felled by popular anger over the handling of Europe's debt crisis.

But Hollande's position also puts him at odds with proponents of austerity such as Germany's Angela Merkel -- who congratulated Hollande but warned that the EU treaty was "not up for grabs" -- and raises concerns about how the euro crisis will be resolved. The results of the French election have already rattled financial markets.

Greek election: In parliamentary elections on Sunday, voters in Greece abandoned the country's two major parties in an implicit rejection of the harsh terms of bailouts by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. The center-right New Democracy party, which attracted the largest percentage of the vote, will now try to form a unity government.

Europe

Vladimir Putin was inaugurated as president of Russia a day after Russian police clashed with anti-government protesters in Moscow.

The presidential candidates for Serbia's ruling Democratic Party and the Serbian Progressive Party will most likely square off again in a runoff vote.

Voters in the German state of Schleswig-Holstein toppled their center-right coalition government.

Middle East

Al Qaeda militants attacked a Yemeni army base after the Yemeni government said a Qaeda militant linked to the bombing of the USS Cole was killed in an airstrike.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for early elections, which may now take place in September.

Syria is holding parliamentary elections, which the government has characterized as a sign of its commitment to reform.

Asia

A video posted on Islamist websites appeared to show U.S. hostage Warren Weinstein urging President Barack Obama to meet the demands of his captors in Pakistan.

The United States is reportedly releasing high-level detainees in Afghanistan as part of negotiations with insurgent groups.

Chinese dissident Chen Guangcheng said he doesn't know when he'll be permitted to leave China for the United States, as Chinese officials continued to criticize Washington's role in Chen's case.

Americas

The lawyers for five men charged with plotting the Sept. 11 attacks complained about the military tribunal process after a dramatic arraignment.

Colombia's FARC rebels confirmed that they're holding a French journalist as a "prisoner of war" and suggested that he may be released soon.

Mexico's presidential candidates participated in their first televised debate.

Africa

The Democratic Republic of Congo claimed it had regained control of territory seized by warlord Bosco "Terminator" Ntaganda.

Militants destroyed the tomb of a Muslim saint in the Malian town of Timbuktu.

The African Union repeated its call for Mali's military junta to cede power.

Joel Saget/AFP/Getty Images

Economist Mao Yushi on why the Chinese government is not evil

Posted: May 4, 2012, 10:08 pm by Isaac Stone Fish

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Chinese economist Mao Yushi is in Washington DC to receive the $250,000 Cato Institute's Milton Friedman Liberty Prize for his advocacy for "an open and transparent political system." Mao, the 83-year-old founder of the Chinese think tank Unirule, infuriated leftists last year in China for calling for Mao Zedong (no relation) to be held accountable for his crimes. The case of Chen Guangcheng, a blind human rights activist who sought safety in the U.S. Embassy late last month has spotlighted China's current human rights weaknesses, but Mao, who like many Chinese suffered greatly during the Cultural Revolution, thinks that's missing the point. I interviewed Mao this morning about American imperialism, Bo Xilai, and Chairman Mao's long shadow (Edited and condensed for clarity):

On China's progress: America thinks the Chinese government oppresses human rights. Yes China has its problems, but in the past thirty years human rights in China has seen a big improvement. The American people and the American government think that Chinese government is evil, but that's wrong: It's not like in Mao Zedong's time, when they killed millions of people for political reasons. In the past thirty years, China has never executed someone for political reasons. (Even the execution of the former head of the Chinese State Food and Drug Administration) was for criminal reasons. Compare China to other countries like Syria, Libya: they've killed political prisoners. China has not.

On Former Chongqing Party secretary Bo Xilai: His (downfall) had a big connection to politics. He wanted China to return to Mao Zedong's time, and this I don't approve of. But many Chinese did. Many thought Mao was a big savior; like he was a God. It's possible that other (high leaders) have this view. They can't insult Mao. They put his big picture on Tiananmen Square. When I was in my twenties, I also believed in him. I thought he was great. But fifty million people died because of his rule. Many youthful people, they didn't have that experience, and still believe in Mao, like sixty years ago. Mao Zedong thought tricked me, and it's now tricking many young people.

On American Imperialism: Many in China and in the government thinks America is China's biggest enemy; that the "American imperialists want to destroy China." That's not happening. Also, the "American imperialists," they occupied Japan and Germany after World War 2, and now they're two of the world's biggest economies. I'm here to receive this prize, and many Chinese have said, you're taking America's money, you're a traitor. The Chinese government has taken so much money from the Ford Foundation, and I have just taken just a little bit of money.

On Chen Guangcheng: Both sides are using this to attack the other. China has used this to say you interfere in my internal politics, and need to apologize. America has used this to attack China on human rights, saying you don't protect your people, you are evil. Many Chinese government officials say America wants to destroy us, but so many Chinese come to America to study abroad. When they have troubles, they flee to American embassies. Wang Lijun (a former deputy of Bo), for example. Many Chinese people think America can protect them.

On political reform: (Because of the Bo Xilai scandal) The Communist Party has opened the curtain a little, and let people see what's inside. Things are changing, and have changed. In Mao's time, politics was a matter of life and death. Transfer of power now is a peaceful process. From Deng Xiaoping, to Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao, there haven't been deaths. You look at (countries like Pakistan) and there were deaths. Most of my opinions I can express freely. Of course, not 100 percent of them, but most of them, as long as I'm fair. Compared with other developing countries' governments, China's government has done a very good job.

The Election 2012 Weekly Report: Dark Days

Posted: May 4, 2012, 10:03 pm by Joshua Keating

"Spiking the football"

As expected, President Barack Obama's campaign is fully capitalizing on the killing of Osama bin Laden in his reelection pitch. An ad released on the one-year anniversary of the Abbottabad raid features former President Bill Clinton praising Obama for having the courage to order the raid and suggesting that Mitt Romney would not have made the same call. Romney pushed back on Monday, saying "Even Jimmy Carter would have given that order." The ad's release preceded a surprise trip to Afghanistan, during which the president signed a new strategic partnership agreement with the Afghan government and addressed the U.S. public from Bagram air base.

Others criticized the Obama campaign for politicizing the issue and "spiking the football" as he had promised not to do in the waking of the killing.. "Shame on Barack Obama for diminishing the memory of September 11th and the killing of Osama bin Laden by turning it into a cheap political attack ad," said Sen. John McCain. The group Veterans for a Strong America released a response ad, "throwing the penalty flag up on President Obama for excessive celebration." The ad made the case that "Heroes Don't Politicize Their Acts of Valor."

Other commentators have pointed out that Obama is hardly the first president to politicize military success.

The battle over Chen

This week saw a high-stakes standoff in Beijing over the fate of human rights activist Chen Guangcheng on the eve of a major U.S.-China summit. In addition to his iconic status in China, Chen enjoys widespread support in the United States, including among prominent anti-abortion members of Congress. After Chen suggested to the media that he had been pressured to leave the U.S. Embassy and had been abandoned by U.S. officials, Romney was quick to respond. "If these reports are true, this is a dark day for freedom. And it's a day of shame for the Obama administration," Romney said during an event with Virginia where he was endorsed by former candidate Michele Bachmann.

Romney was criticized for his response by Weekly Standard editor and prominent neoconservative commentator Bill Kristol, who told Fox News, "To inject yourself into the middle of this way with a fast-moving target I think is foolish."

The United States and China reached a tentative deal on Friday that will allow Chen to leave China.

Romney spokesman steps down

The Romney campaign's newly appointed foreign policy and national security spokesman Richard Grenell stepped down this week. It wasn't Grenell's foreign-policy views that led to his downfall as much as the fact that he's openly gay and supports gay marriage. The appointment of Grenell, who had served as spokesman for former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton, came under attack from religious conservatives from the beginning. He also faced criticism from liberals over tweets attacking major democratic political figures.

"While I welcomed the challenge to confront President Obama's foreign policy failures and weak leadership on the world stage, my ability to speak clearly and forcefully on the issues has been greatly diminished by the hyper-partisan discussion of personal issues that sometimes comes from a presidential campaign," Grenell said in a statement.

Newt's exit

Newt Gingrich officially suspended his campaign this week, but if the Romney camp was hoping for a strong endorsement, they came away disappointed. "As for the presidency, I'm asked sometimes, is Mitt Romney conservative?" Gingrich said in his concession speech at the Arlington Hilton. "And my answer is simple. Compared to Barack Obama? You know, this is not a choice between Mitt Romney and Ronald Reagan. This is a choice between Mitt Romney and the most radical leftist president in American history."

Though he acknowledged that his staunch support for establishing a colony on the moon may not have done wonders for his campaign, he promised to "cheerfully" recommit himself to the cause. Referring to his grandchildren, he said "I'm not totally certain I will get to the moon colony," he said. "I am certain Maggie and Robert will have that opportunity to go and take it. I think it's almost inevitable on just the sheer scale of technological change."

The latest from FP:

Michael Scheuer makes the case for why Ron Paul would be a great foreign-policy president.

Colum Lynch looks at the guilty schadenfreude at the U.N. over of Grenell's fate.

With Obama attacking Romney over his overseas wealth, Uri Friedman asks whether poor people can open Swiss bank accounts.

Stephen Walt wonders if the Kabul trip will be Obama's "mission accomplished" moment.

Scott Clement says voters are fine with presidential chest-thumping, as long as it's their candidate who's doing the thumping.

Michael Cohen argues that the Bin Laden killing is "the core of [Obama's] reelection prospects."

Hosni Mubarak's unhappy birthday

Posted: May 4, 2012, 9:07 pm by David Kenner

CAIRO — There is a grim, inexorable cycle to clashes here: One group of activists gathers to decry some aspect of Egypt's botched transition to democratic rule -- in this latest case, the supporters of Salafist preacher Hazem Abou Ismail, who gathered outside the Ministry of Defense to protest the would-be candidate's exclusion from the race. They are soon joined by revolutionaries of all stripes -- the April 6 Youth Movement, for example, and soccer fans known as the Ultras -- who bring their own grievances against the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). As the protesters' numbers grow, they are soon besieged by pro-government "thugs" who try to disperse the demonstration by force, which only causes more outraged revolutionaries to flock to the scene. People die, and Egyptians' sense of security grows even more frayed. Rinse and repeat.

It was all happening again in Cairo today -- ironically, Hosni Mubarak's birthday. Egyptian military police and plainclothes government supporters have used overwhelming force to push protesters, who threw stones (which some soldiers threw back), away from the Ministry of Defense. The clashes come two days after violence at the same protest site left 11 people dead. Pictures today show Army armored personnel carriers lined up against milling protesters, while an extraordinary video of clashes at the same site last Saturday shows a man shooting the cameraman filming him.

But while the cycle of violence is tragically predictable, how the clashes will affect Egypt's upcoming presidential election is not. Cartoonist Carlos Latuff summed up the perspective of the revolutionaries with this drawing, showing SCAF head Mohamad Tantawi feeding coins into a coin into a pro-government thug beating a protester. Islamist candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh has aligned himself with the protesters, making an appearance at the Ministry of Defense protest site on May 2 and suspending his campaign over the violence.

On Friday, as the clashes were ongoing, Aboul Fotouh was roughly 10 miles away, addressing a rally in the Cairo neighborhood of Maadi. Speaking of the revolutionary protesters who have taken to the streets over the past year, he said, "These youths who have sacrificed their lives and their health and even their eyes, there blood has been spilled out of love for Egypt."

But the political divide on how to respond to these events is deepening. Aboul Fotouh's chief rival, former Arab League head Amr Moussa, has expressed grief over the loss of life -- he suspended his campaign for three days after the May 2 clashes, according to campaign officials. But has also used them to drive home his campaign plank of the need for a return to stability: His statement condemning the violence ended with the line "Down with the rule of chaos," a play off of protesters' common chant, "down with military rule." On May 2, Moussa reportedly blasted the April 6 Movement, which played a prominent role at the Ministry of Defense protests, as a force that would spread chaos, foment corruption, and delay Egypt's development.

Given the tumultuous events in the capital, it is hard to believe that Egypt is preparing to hold a presidential election in 19 days. But these clashes are going to be an inescapable political issue going forward -- and, like in any campaign, the candidates' inclination will be to highlight the contrasts between their positions as election day nears. The rifts in Egypt are going to grow wider before they have a chance to heal.

Morning Brief: China says Chen Guangcheng could apply to study abroad

Posted: May 4, 2012, 3:28 pm by Uri Friedman

China says Chen Guangcheng could apply to study abroad

Top story: In what could be a breakthrough in the case of Chen Guangcheng -- the Chinese dissident who escaped house arrest and spent six days at the U.S. embassy in Beijing -- China's Foreign Ministry suggested on Friday that the activist could study outside China. Chen "can apply through normal channels to the relevant departments in accordance with the law, just like any other Chinese citizen," a ministry spokesman explained.

The announcement came after Chen called into a U.S. congressional hearing on Thursday and later stated that while he didn't intend on seeking political asylum in the United States, he was interested in spending time there and potentially attending New York University.

But the diplomatic crisis, which has overshadowed high-level talks between China and the United States in Beijing, may not be over just yet. China's top diplomat informed U.S. officials on Friday that human rights should not be "used as an excuse to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries," and a Chinese human rights lawyer tells Reuters that Chinese authorities could make it difficult for Chen to study abroad by delaying his paperwork. "We can't be 100 percent optimistic," the lawyer noted.

British elections: Early results from local English and Welsh elections suggest that the opposition Labour party could win 38 percent of the national vote. British Prime Minister David Cameron said the government would not alter its economic policies in light of Labour's strong performance.

Middle East

At least four students reportedly died when Syrian security forces cracked down on a student demonstration at Aleppo University.

Iran is holding a second round of parliamentary elections.

Israel freed Hagai Amir, the brother of the man who killed Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.

Europe

A twin bombing at a police station in Russia's North Caucasus region killed at least 13 people.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is trailing his Socialist challenger Francois Hollande by roughly six percent in polls in the last day of campaigning for the country's presidential election.

Cardinal Sean Brady, the head of the Catholic Church in Ireland, is facing calls to resign over his alleged failure to report clerical sexual abuse.

Asia

A suicide bomber killed at least 20 people in an assault on a police checkpoint in northwest Pakistan.

Japan will shut down its last functional nuclear reactor on Saturday.

Recent clashes between government troops and Kachin rebels in Myanmar have reportedly left more than 30 people dead.

Africa

Both Sudan and South Sudan agreed to a U.N. roadmap for ending hostilities and restarting negotiations, though tensions between the two sides remain high.

Africa received a greater share of global foreign direct investment in 2011 than ever before but is still considered the "least attractive" destination for FDI, according to a new survey.

Prosecutors are requesting that former Liberian President Charles Taylor, who was recently convicted of war crimes in The Hague, be given an 80-year sentence.

Americas

Argentina's Congress approved the nationalization of the Spanish-controlled oil company YPF.

Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the alleged mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, will appear before a military tribunal in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba on Saturday.

Three photojournalists were found dead in the eastern Mexican state of Veracruz shortly after a crime reporter was murdered in the same region.

U.S. Embassy Beijing Press via Getty Images

State Department: New deal reached on blind Chinese activist

Posted: May 4, 2012, 3:19 pm by Blake Hounshell

It looks like a deal has been reached for blind Chinese activist Chen Guangcheng. This just in:

STATEMENT BY VICTORIA NULAND, SPOKESPRSON

Chen Guangcheng

The Chinese Government stated today that Mr. Chen Guangcheng has the same right to travel abroad as any other citizen of China. Mr. Chen has been offered a fellowship from an American university, where he can be accompanied by his wife and two children.

The Chinese Government has indicated that it will accept Mr. Chen's applications for appropriate travel documents. The United States government expects that the Chinese government will expeditiously process his applications for these documents, and make accommodations for his current medical condition. The United States government would then give visa requests for him and his immediate family priority attention.

This matter has been handled in the spirit of a cooperative U.S.-China partnership.

Kim Jong Un brings salt water to North Korea's dolphins

Posted: May 3, 2012, 12:46 am by Joshua Keating

North Korea's state-run Rodong news service reports on what is surely a wise and prudent use of state resources, bringing seawater to Pyongyang:

Leader Kim Jong Il unrolled a plan to bring seawater from Nampho to Pyongyang for solving the issue of drinking water for the citizens of the capital city and providing good conditions for their cultural and emotional life. When its first phase project was wound up, he showed deep loving care and trust in the model units, officials and other working people engaged in the project.

The dear respected Kim Jong Un acquainted himself with the second phase project of the Nampho-Pyongyang seawater pipeline in December last year and clearly indicated the orientation and ways for completing the project on the occasion of the centenary of the birth of President Kim Il Sung.

Officials and other working people, scientists and technicians carried out vast tasks for laying pipelines extending more than dozens of km and constructing seawater reservoir, pond and pumping stations in a matter of one year.

The completion of the project makes it possible to bring great benefit to the country by disinfecting water by seawater and satisfactorily supply seawater to the Pyongyang Dolphin Aquarium and the Aquarium in the Central Zoo and thus contribute to the cultural and emotional life of the people.

No word on whether the dolphins are connected in any way to the alleged manned torpedo program.

HT: @adamcathcart, @blakehounshell

Is there a reason world leaders shouldn't endorse each other?

Posted: May 3, 2012, 12:25 am by Joshua Keating

According to this Guardian story, the Romney campaign isn't happy about Prime Minister David Cameron bro-ing it up with President Obama last month:

Senior advisers to Mitt Romney have bitterly criticised David Cameron's recent White House "love-in" with Barack Obama before Romney's first visit to London for the opening of the Olympic Games.

Referring to Cameron's highly flattering toast to Obama during a banquet given in the prime minister's honour when he visited Washington in March, a senior aide said: "You don't take sides in an election year".

The aide, who requested anonymity, said Romney and his wife, Ann, would attend the "first day of activities" of the 2012 Games, which open in July. Romney would do "one or two other things" while in London. A meeting with Cameron was not ruled out, but that was "up in the air", the aide said.

Doubts about a possible Downing Street meeting appear to stem in part from surprise and dismay felt in the Romney camp about what it saw as Cameron's obsequious behaviour at the banquet on 14 March. Cameron's performance smacked of a "lack of experience" and was seen as "not very skilful", the aide said.

Romney advisers responsible for European policy were said to have been so alarmed that their initial reaction was to complain Cameron had "infringed" the special relationship between the US and Britain.

Cameron was also criticized in the British media as well for appearing to close to Obama and for a toast that seemed to border on an endorsement of the president's reelection.

It's debatable whether Cameron's actions really constituted taking sides, but there seems to be a lot of that going around this year. Cameron and Angela Merkel have both given the cold-shoulder to likely future French president Francois Hollande. Nicolas Sarkozy has essentially endorsed Obama. Obama seemed to return the favor by allowing a few minutes of banter with Sarkozy during a video conference to be broadcast on French television.

The taboo of commenting on a fellow world leader's election chances does seem a little silly at times. For instance, it's seems pretty obvious that Benjamin Netanyahu would prefer to see his old friend Mitt Romney in the White House next year and center-right European heads of state are obviously not thrilled at all about working with Hollande. Had Marine Le Pen made it to the second round, the rhetoric would have gotten a lot less subtle. It doesn't really any more unethical for a foreign leader to state a preference than a domestic politician or business leader.

But it's still a pretty bad idea. First, voters often don't respond well to foreign leaders telling them how to vote. (See, Greece.) Second, it doesn't seem like a good idea to alienate a leader you may very well have to work with if the election doesn't go your way. In the case of the unnamed Romney advisor, this second reason also applies to candidates whining about foreign leaders.

Adam Gadahn on the media and more highlights from the bin Laden docs

Posted: May 3, 2012, 5:36 pm by Joshua Keating

One of the most intriguing highlights of the 17 documents released by West Point's Combating Terrorism Center from the trove captured at Osama bin Laden's Abbottabad compound is a discussion from al Qaeda's American media advisor, Adam Gadahn, on plans for the commemoration of the 10th anniversary of 9/11. Gadahn gives his impression of the major U.S. networks and seems pretty up to date on recent media news. Let's just say ABC probably won't be too happy with its description, but Fox News is no doubt already working on a new ad campaign. (Highlights mine):

As far as the American channel that could be used to deliver our messages, whether on the tenth anniversary or before or after, in my personal opinion there are no distinct differences betweenthe channels from the standpoint of professionalism and neutrality. It is all as the Shaykh has stated (close to professionalism and neutrality) it has not and will not reach the perfect professionalism and neutrality, only if God wants that. From the professional point of view, they are all on one level except (Fox News) channel which falls into the abyss as you know, and lacks neutrality too.

As for the neutrality of CNN in English, it seems to be in cooperation with the government more than the others (except Fox News of course). Its Arabic version brings good and detailed reports about al-Sahab releases, with a lot of quotations from the original text. That means they copy directly from the releases or its gist. It is not like what other channels and sites do, copying from news agencies like Reuters, AP and others. I used to think that MSNBC channel may be good and neutral a bit, but is has lately fired two of the most famous journalists -Keith Olberman and Octavia Nasser the Lebanese - because they released some statements that were open for argument (The Lebanese had praised a Shia Imam Muhammad Husayn Fadlallah after his death and called him "One of the marvels of Hizballah" it seems she is a Shia.) (Page 3 of 21) CBS channel was mentioned by the Shaykh, I see that it is like the other channels, but it has a famous program (60 Minutes) that has some popularity and a good reputation for its long broadcasting time. Only God knows the reality, as I am not really in a position to do so. ABC channel is all right; actually it could be one of the best channels, as far as we are concerned. It is interested in alQa'ida issues, particularly the journalist Brian Ross, who is specialized in terrorism. The channel is still proud for its interview with the Shaykh. It also broadcasted excerpts from a speech of mine on the fourth anniversary, it also published most of that text on its site on the internet. In conclusion, we can say that there is no single channel that we could rely on for our messages. I may ignore them, and even the channel that broadcast them, probably it would distort them somehow. This is accomplished by bringing analysts and experts that would interpret its meaning in the way they want it to be. Or they may ignore the message and conduct a smearing of the individuals, to the end of the list of what you know about their cunning methods. But if the display -in the next anniversary for example- of a special type, like a special interview with Shaykh Usama or Shaykh Ayman, and with questions chosen by the channel, and with a good camera, we might find a channel that would accept its broadcasting. But they would accept this time, so as to get an exclusive press scoop: The first press interview of Shaykh Usama or Shaykh Ayman since 10 years ago! Particularly if the Shaykh is the one to be interviewed. This is because of the scarcity of his appearance during the last nine years. Because of the poor photographic quality of the last two releases -I do not know the photo quality this time- this led those believers in conspiracy theory to speculate if the person was the Shaykh, and you may have seen the program (Ben Ladin, alive or dead?) that was broadcast by Al Jazeera. Accordingly, a high quality speech (HD) may receive some interest by some channels in the tenth anniversary. If the quality of the new Shaykh's speech is high, relative to the two previous speeches, you may think to compress it or take some measures to decrease the quality, to be similar to the previous ones, and I am talking seriously. In general, and no matter what material we send, I suggest that we should distribute it to more than one channel, so that there will be healthy competition between the channels in broadcasting the material, so that no other channel takes the lead. It should be sent for example to ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN and maybe PBS and VOA. As for Fox News, let her die in her anger.

Gadahn had his facts mixed up a bit. It was CNN, not MSNBC, that fired Octavia Nasr.

Some other intriguing bits include bin Laden sounding like something of a corporate middle manager when discussing the recruitman of Anwar al-Awlaki:

How excellent would it be if you ask brother Basir to send us the resume, in detail and lengthy, of brother Anwar al-'Awlaqi, as well as the facts he relied on when recommending him, while informing him that his recommendation is considered.

There's also a bit of Decline Watch fodder in bin Laden's currency preferences:

Enclosed is the article attributed to our brother Sayf al-'Adl. -Regarding the money, I like for them to be in Euros.

Stay tuned for more.

Morning Brief: Chen Guangcheng now wants to leave China

Posted: May 3, 2012, 3:28 pm by Joshua Keating

Chen Guangcheng now wants to leave China

Top story: Chen Guangcheng, the blind Chinese human rights activist who left the U.S. embassy yesterday under a deal negotiated between China and the United States, now says he wants to leave China, further complicated a diplomatic standoff that appeared headed for a quick resolution on the eve of a major summit between the two countries.

Chen was taken from the embassy to a hospital yesterday under a deal that would allow him to study at a law school not far from Beijing, but two conflicting narratives have emerged in the saga. Chen now says that he was not fully aware of his situation while in the embassy, was strongly encouraged to leave, and then abandoned by U.S. officials once he reached the hospital. "The embassy kept lobbying me to leave and promised to have people stay with me at the hospital," he said. "But this afternoon, as soon as I checked into the hospital room, I noticed they were all gone."

U.S. officials strongly deny this account, saying Chen was fully briefed on his options. “I was there. Chen made the decision to leave the Embassy after he knew his family was safe and at the hospital waiting for him, and after twice being asked by [U.S. Ambassador to China Gary] Locke if he was ready to go,” said Kurt Campbell, the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. “He said, ‘zou,’ – let’s go. We were all there as witnesses to his decision, and he hugged and thanked us all.”

Chen's change of heart appears to have happened after he reached the hospital and was reunited with his wife, who told him she had been threatened by officials during his absence. He also spoke by phone with political supporters who urged him to seek asylum.

"I want them to protect human rights through concrete actions," he told CNN. "We are in danger. If you can talk to Hillary, I hope she can help my whole family leave China."

U.S. officials have not been able to speak with Chen in person since he left the embassy. Visiting U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has not addressed the case directly but said in a speech at the opening of the annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue that “all governments have to answer our citizens’ aspirations for dignity and the rule of law.” China has strongly criticized U.S. handling of the case and demanded an apology for meddling in its internal affairs.

The dialogue: Aside from Chen, the U.S. aims to use the conference, which opens today, to secure Chinese cooperation on efforts to rein in the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is urging China to move away from an export-led growth strategy.

Europe

Britons are voting in local elections today.
French presidential candidates Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande squared off in a contentious debate.
Britain's cabinet office minister warned that this summer's London Olympics could face cyberattacks.

Middle East

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to announce early elections for September.
Four people were killed when Syrian security forces attacked a student protest at Aleppo University.
Libya's National Transitional Council lifted a ban on religious parties.

Asia

South Korea accused North Korea of trying to jam its air navigation system.
The U.S. will triple its military aid to the Philippines this year.
The U.N. imposed sanctions on three North Korean firms.

Americas

Brazil deployed more than 8,500 troops to the Amazon in an anti-crime operation.
Brazil's development bank urged the government to lower interest rates.
Twelve people were killed in a shootout between the Mexican army and suspected drug gang members in Sinaloa.

Africa

Dozens were killed in an attack on a cattle market in Northeastern Nigeria.
The U.N. Security Council passed a resolution threatening to impose sanctions on Sudan and South Sudan.
Violence continued in Bamako as Mali's ruling junta hunted down troops involved in this week's attempted counter-coup.

Jordan Pouille/AFP/GettyImages

Al Qaeda magazine returns with two new issues

Posted: May 2, 2012, 10:17 pm by Joshua Keating

Today, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's media arm, al-Malahem Media, has recently released two new issues of the group's English-language magazine, Inspire. The release is significant since the magazine was thought to be defunct since the September 2011 drone attacks that killed Anwar al-Awlaki and Samir Khan in Yemen. The two U.S.-raised jihadists were Inspire's best-known contributor and editor, respectively. See terrorism analysts and FP contributors J.M. Berger and Evan Kohlman for the best takes put up so far on their contents.

After the deaths of Kahn and Awlaki last year, I looked back over the publication's full run from an editor's perspective. How do the new issues of the world's most notorious magazine stack up?

Issue 8 is a little odd in terms of timing. Though it's only coming to light today, it's billed as the fall 2011 issue. However, Issue 7 was also supposed to be the fall 2011 issue. Berger speculates on Twitter that this issue "looks like it might have been the last work of Samir Khan, as it does not mention either man's death."

There are some new features, including a quiz in the table of contents. A help-wanted notice suggests the magazine is looking for web help, researchers, translators, and "sisters who can write on women-related issues." There's also a long feature on the Pakistani army and its "role in the crusades." The regular humor feature, the Mad Magazine-esque "A Cold Diss," mocks the late Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi and refers to the famous "Zenga Zenga" YouTube video. (They're presumably aware it was made by an Israeli.) The instructional "open-source jihad" feature gives some helpful hints on handgun training.

The most chilling feature is an article by Awlaki himself justifying the killing of civilians in jihadist attacks. "If combatants and non-combatants are mixed together and integrated, it is allowed for the Muslims to attack them even if women, children, the elderly, farmers, merchants and slaves get killed but this should only be done with the intention of fighting the combatants," he writes.

Issue 9 discusses Khan and Awlaki's deaths in detail, and the new editor, Yahya Ibrahim, begins with some words for all the doubters:

"To the disappointment of our enemies, issue 9 of inspire [sic] magazine is out against all odds al-Hamdolillah. The Zionists and the crusaders thought that the magazine was gone with the martyrdom of Shykh Anwar and brother Samir, may Allah have mercy upon their souls. Yet again, they have failed to come to terms with the fact that the Muslim ummah is the most fertile and most generous mother that gives birth to thousands and thousands of the likes of Shaykh Anwar and brother Samir. They will be displeased to know that we have been inundated with emails and requests by young inspired Muslims who are persistently offering their help, not just intellectually, but with whatever the mujahideen need in the West.

It has to be said that the quality of copyediting and translation has gone downhill since the deaths of the two American contributors. One article, teased on the cover, is bafflingly headlined, "It is of your freedom to ignite a firebomb." The layout is still pretty slick, though, and one writer claims in a eulogy for Khan that the late editor "taught me everything he knew about presentation of certain material."

With a stunning lack of self-awareness, the editors condemn the killing of Awlaki's son. "The only thing why Abdur-Rahmaan Bin Anwar Al Awlaki was 'guilty' was the fact that he was a son of Shaykh Anwar al Awlaki," they write. "But can we blame somebody because of being somebody's son?" (Perhaps they should refer to Awlaki's justification for the killing of innocent children in the previous issue.)

As usual, the issue is heavy on tactics and suggested operations, including attacks on "main political figures" in the West and "large strategic economic targets such as: The Stock Exchange, power and oil installations, airports, harbors, railroad systems," etc.

It is not only "your freedom to ignite a firebomb," as it turns out, but a great idea! Having seen the damage wrought by forest fires in the United States and Australia in recent years, Inspire suggests a number of ways an enterprising young jihadist could go about starting one.

The most intriguing piece may be an essay making the case for why Al Qaeda's violence is more justifiable than attacks by Christian extremists like Anders Behring Breivik. According to Inspire, "The right wing extremists apparently can kill their own people for as a ridiculous reason [sic] as ‘waking them up'. This is extremism at its peak." It really says something when al Qaeda thinks a group's methods are a bit severe.

In what may be his last written statement, an article by Awlaki titled "Spilling Out The Beans" discusses his radicalization in the United States and persecution by U.S. authorities. It includes this strange anecdote:

"In 1996 while waiting at a traffic light in my minivan a middle aged woman knocked on the window of the passenger seat. By the time I rolled down the window and before even myself or the woman uttering a word I was surrounded by police officers who had me come out of my vehicle only to be handcuffed. I was accused of soliciting a prostitute and then released. They made it a point to make me know in no uncertain terms that the woman was an undercover cop."

The story of Awlaki's two busts on prostitution charges has been told before and he denied them. It's a little odd that the current editors of Inspire would include a discussion of this incident in what may be Awlaki's final posthumous statement. In general, the editorial standards seem to have gone downhill since his death.

Chen Guangcheng photos released by U.S. Embassy in Beijing

Posted: May 2, 2012, 8:08 pm by Cara Parks

Chinese activist Chen Guangcheng left the U.S. Embassy in Beijing on Wednesday after a deal was negotiated by his American hosts, despite concern over his ultimate fate in the hands of the Chinese government and uncertainty about the circumstances of his release. However, the U.S. Embassy in Beijing seems confident enough that they can ultimately file this episode in their "wins" folder that they have released photos of Chen's stay through the embassy's official Flickr stream.

In the carefully choreographed photo above, Chen clasps hands with Kurt Campbell, assistant secretary of state for Asian and Pacific Asian affairs, while U.S. ambassador to China Gary Locke beams in the background.

Here, Campbell gives the Chinese dissident a crushing bear hug. Campbell led negotiations for Chen's release with Harold Koh, legal advisor to the Department of State, after being dispatched by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, currently in Beijing for high-level negotiations.

While driving to the hospital where he was to reunite with his family, Chen reportedly called Clinton to thank her for her role in facilitating the release. While one senior administration official reported that Chen told Clinton he wanted to "kiss her," others have said he was saying "see her" in broken English.

In an interview with the AP, Chen claimed that he left the embassy only after he was told by U.S. officials that Chinese authorities had threatened his wife's life. However, Campbell insists that Chen left willingly.

Whether or not Chen will now be free from house arrest remains unclear. In an interview with Britain's Channel 4 from his hospital room, Chen expressed fear. "Nobody from the [U.S.] Embassy is here. I don't understand why. They promised to be here," he said.

U.S. officials say that Chen will be allowed to study at a university of his choosing as part of the release. Hopefully, the intense media interest generated by the case may help to keep him and his family safe.

Checkmate in Syria

Posted: May 2, 2012, 3:59 pm by David Kenner

It's become a cliché to say the struggle in Syria is stalemated. After all, dozens of people are still being killed daily, despite Kofi Annan's efforts to broker a ceasefire. But Syrian President Bashar al-Assad gave new meaning to the chess metaphor on Sunday when he met for three hours with Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, the head of the World Chess Federation (FIDE).

Ilyumzhinov is no ordinary pawn in international diplomacy. He is the former president of the southern Russian republic of Kalmykia who enjoyed a long relationship with Libyan autocrat Muammar al-Qaddafi -- the two played a game of chess even while NATO warplanes were bombarding Qaddafi's forces, and spoke by phone as Libyan rebels surrounded Qaddafi's compound in Tripoli. Oh, and let's not forget that Ilyumzhinov is on record saying that he was abducted by aliens.

So how does a repressive dictator and an eccentric chess guru pass the time? According to a press release put out by FIDE, the two men discussed organizing the "first international youth chess tournament," which would bring Arabs from across the region to Damascus to test their skills. "The Syrian president plays chess very well -- since his studies in London," Ilyumzhinov said.

Assad also used the opportunity to try to woo more high-profile international visitors to Syria. "President Assad said that on the Syrian territory there is one of the most ancient Buddhist temples erected about two thousand years ago," Ilyumzhinov said. "He would like to invite H.H. Dalai Lama to sanctify this temple."

Now we know, at least, that international diplomatic efforts aren't so intensive that Assad can't deal personally with such concerns.

Morning Brief: Chinese dissident leaves U.S. embassy

Posted: May 2, 2012, 3:19 pm by Uri Friedman

Chinese dissident leaves U.S. embassy

Top story: The blind Chinese human rights lawyer Chen Guangcheng, whose whereabouts have been a mystery since he escaped house arrest last week, left the U.S. embassy in Beijing on Wednesday and headed to a check-up at a hospital in the Chinese capital before reuniting with his family.

Xinhua, China's official news agency, reported that Chen left the embassy "of his own volition" after a six-day stay, while American officials tell the New York Times that the activist emerged only after he received assurances from the Chinese government that he would remain safe if he stayed in his country -- a deal that Reuters is calling "unprecedented."

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who is in Beijing for previously scheduled talks with Chinese officials, said she spoke with Chen on Wednesday and that the dissident's understanding with the Chinese government included "the opportunity to pursue higher education in a safe environment."

The Chinese Foreign Ministry, for its part, demanded an apology from the United States for taking Chen into its embassy.

Afghanistan: President Barack Obama pledged to end the war in Afghanistan and signed a strategic partnership agreement with Afghan President Hamid Karzai during an unannounced visit to Kabul on Tuesday. Less than two hours after Obama left the country, however, a suicide bomber attacked a compound housing foreigners in the Afghan capital, killing seven Afghans.

Middle East

Unidentified attackers clashed with mostly Islamist protesters in the Egyptian capital, leaving at least nine people dead.

Human Rights Watch accused the Syrian government of committing war crimes in Idlib province during ceasefire negotiations.

The Israeli military ended its investigation into the 2009 shelling of a house in the Gaza Strip that killed 21 members of an extended Palestinian family.

Asia

Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi was sworn in as a member of Myanmar's new parliament.

Rescuers in India continued to search for bodies after a ferry accident that killed at least 100 people.

South Korean officials accused North Korea of disrupting GPS navigation in the country.

Europe

The unemployment rate in the eurozone rose to 10.9 percent in March -- the highest level since the creation of the euro in 1999.

The British Sky Broadcasting Group defended its record amid criticism of News Corporation, which owns 39 percent of BSkyB.

The credit rating agency Standard & Poor's upgraded Greek debt from "selective default."

Africa

Junta leaders in Mali said that they had defeated a counter-coup and that a transition to civilian rule was still on track.

A suicide attack in central Somalia killed seven people, including two lawmakers.

The president of Chad called for a regional force to crack down on the Nigerian militant group Boko Haram.

Americas

The Bosnian-born U.S. citizen Adis Medunjanin was convicted of plotting suicide bombings of New York subways.

Bolivian President Evo Morales nationalized a subsidiary of the Spanish power company REE.

A woman claiming to be a member of the FARC said the Colombian rebel group had captured a French journalist as a prisoner of war.

Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images

European leaders consider Euro Cup boycott over Tymoshenko

Posted: May 1, 2012, 9:21 pm by Joshua Keating

There seems to be a growing movement among European politicians to use the upcoming Euro cup -- co-hosted by Ukraine and Poland -- as an opportunity to take a stand on human rights conditions in Ukraine, particularly the imprisonment of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who is now on a hunger strike and reportedly in poor health.

EU Justice Commissioner Viviane Redding and EU commission President Jose Manuel Barroso both say they will boycott the event. Czech President Vaclav Klaus and German President Joachim Gauck have already canceled participation in summit planned in Ukraine for next week because of Tymoshenko's treatment. Chancellor Angela Merkel says she will not attend Euro 2012 unless Tymoshenko's conditions improve. The Dutch parliament has passed a resolution saying that no one representing the government should attend.

So far there's no talk of teams or players boycotting the games, though Bayern Munich president and German soccer icon Uli Hoeness did say that he "would have respect for every player who publicly took a stand on this issue."

In an interview with Der Spiegel, Ukrainian boxer and pro-democracy activist Vitali Klitschko said he did not support a boycott, but asked players to be aware of the conditions in Ukraine:

I am against the politicization of sports. But athletes also need to be clear about what is happening in a country in which they are competing. Think about the 1978 World Cup in Argentina. At the time, regime opponents were tortured and killed by the military junta, in some instances in the very stadiums where the World Cup matches were later played. Berti Vogts, the captain of the German national team at the time, said only that he hadn't seen a single political prisoner and that Argentina was a country where order was maintained.

Klitschko said he hoped the tournament would be "an excellent opportunity to draw the world's attention to the maladministration in our country."

After the Beijing Olympics, I'm a bit skeptical of the argument that events like these can effectively highlight human rights issues in a host country. The incentive of the organizers, sponsors, and players is to have a smooth-running competition, not provide opportunity for Jesse Owens moments. On the other hand, the recent Formula 1 Grand Prix in Bahrain did seem to draw some attention to a forgotten human rights crisis.

In any event, the Ukraine controversy may be just a prelude to Sochi 2014.

A little slice of Canada in Honduras?

Posted: May 1, 2012, 8:46 pm by Joshua Keating

Honduras is currently at work setting up a free-enterprise zone modeled on economist Paul Romer's "charter cities" concept. The controversial idea is basically that developing countries will set aside a parcel of land to be operated under its economic rules and judicial system with the assistance of a foreign government, essentially a Honduran Hong Kong.

Or perhaps a Honduran Vancouver. Romer was in Ottawa this week trying to win Canadian support for Honduras's Región Especial de Desarrollo. He has co-authored an op-ed in the Globe and Mail with President Porfirio Lobo's chief of staff, calling for Canada to play a role in the administration of the zone:

Many people from around the world would like access to the security and opportunity that Canadian governance makes possible. According to Gallup, the number of adults worldwide who would move permanently to Canada if given the chance is about 45 million. Although Canada can’t accommodate everyone who’d like to move here, it can help to bring stronger governance to many new places that could accept millions of new residents. The RED in Honduras is the place to start.[...]

By participating in RED governance, Canada can make the new city a more attractive place for would-be residents and investors. It can help immediately by appointing a representative to a commission that has the power to ensure that RED leadership remains transparent and accountable. It also can assist by training police officers.

The courts in the RED will be independent from those in the rest of Honduras. The Mauritian Supreme Court has agreed in principle to serve as a court of final appeal for the RED, but Canada can play a strong complementary role. Because the RED can appoint judges from foreign jurisdictions, Canadian justices could hear RED cases from Canada and help train local jurists.

Oversight, policing and jurisprudence are just a few of the ways in which Canada can help. Effective public involvement will also be required in education, health care, environmental management and tax administration. Such co-operation can be based on a fee-for-service arrangement in which the RED pays Canada using gains in the value of the land in the new reform zone.
The world does not need more aid. As the Gallup numbers show, it needs more Canada – more of the norms and know-how that lead to the rule of law, true inclusion and real opportunity for all.

The notion of Honduran citizens accepting the jurisdiction of a Canadian court, or a Mauritian one for that matter, still feels a bit far-fetched. But as Alex Tabarrok points out, Romer has already taken this idea a lot farther than anyone expected.

Morning Brief: Clinton leaves for China amid Chen Guangcheng crisis

Posted: May 1, 2012, 3:26 pm by Joshua Keating

Clinton leaves for China amid Chen Guangcheng crisis

Top news: U.S. Secretary Hillary Clinton left on Monday night for talks in China that are likely to be overshadowed by the case of dissident Chen Guangchen. The blind human rights activist is believed to be holed up at the U.S. embassy in Beijing, though neither side has acknowledged his presence there.

Clinton avoided comment on Chen prior to leaving for the talks, which will include efforts to win Chinese cooperation on issues ranging from the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs, to Syria's human rights crackdown, to territorial claims in the South China Sea. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is also attending to discuss longstanding disputes over currency and market access. Without mentioning Chen specifically, Clinton promised to press Chinese leaders on human rights.

President Barack Obama also avoided mentioning Chen in a Monday press conference with visiting Japanese leader Yoshihiko Noda, saying only that “every time we meet with China the issue of human rights comes up.” Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell arrived in Beijing to discuss Chen's case with Chinese officials on Sunday.

According to allies of Chen, he will not ask for political asylum but will demand to remain in China to press on with his campaign for reform.

War on terror: Obama administration counterterrorism advisor John Brennan defended the legality of U.S. drone strikes in a speech.

Europe

A British parliamentary inquiry concluded that Rupert Murdoch is "not a fit person" to run a large corporation like News Corp.
National Front leader Marine Le Pen has declined to back President Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round of France's presidential election.
Italy plans to cut $5.5 billion in spending to avoid a sales tax increase.

Africa

Soldiers loyal to ousted Malian President Amadou Toumani Toure appear to be attempting a counter-coup.
Nigerian forces raided a suspected Islamist militant base in Kano.
Troops loyal to alleged war criminal Bosco Ntaganda took two towns in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

Middle East

Imprisoned Bahraini activist Abdulhadi al-Khawaja says he will continue his hunger strike.
At least 23 people were killed by violence in Syria on Tuesday, which is still technically under a U.N. sponsored ceasefire.
Former Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni announced that she is resigning from the Knesset.

Americas

Mexico's congress passed a bill to compensate victims of crime.
Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos said there are "clear indications" that FARC rebels are holding a French journalists hostage.
Before returning to Cuba for cancer treatment, President Hugo Chavez announced steps to withdraw Venezuela from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights.

Asia

U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon met with Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
Two suspected insurgents were killed in a joint Afghan-NATO raid in Eastern Afghanistan.
Workers staged Asia's largest May Day rally in Indonesia.

BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/GettyImages

Saakashvili puts it all on the line

Posted: April 30, 2012, 1:14 am by Joshua Keating

An uncomfortable promise from Georgia's combative president in reference to the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as reported by RFE/RL:

Saakashvili said he was even willing to sacrifice parts of his body that Moscow has "shown interest in" -- a hint at then-President Vladimir Putin's infamous 2008 pledge to "hang Saakashvili by the balls."

"In addition, I am ready to cut off and send them those parts of my body which they have shown interest in more than once," Saakashvili said. "I am really ready to do it, and I say this without a hint of irony, as long as they pull out their forces from here and give Georgia's people -- its multiethnic population -- an opportunity to develop within the internationally recognized borders."

The comment, initially broadcast live on Georgian pro-government television, was removed from the interview's subsequent retransmissions.

On a more literal note -- I hope -- Saakashvili said he was willing to resign if Russia withdrew troops from the regions.

It seems like the president may be spending too much time with Donald Trump.

Introducing Arab Spring Tetris

Posted: April 30, 2012, 10:37 pm by David Kenner

If you'd like, you can see Arab Spring Tetris as a commentary on how multiple moving parts need to line up in order to wipe away the dictators of years past. Or you can see it as a brilliant way to procrastinate on a dreary Monday. Whatever you choose, enjoy this addictive creation, courtesy of Håkon Dreyer and Karl Sharro.

Dictatoris - The Arab Spring Tetris body { font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; } #title { font-size: 1.8em; font-weight:bold; } #subtitle { font-size: 1.4em; font-style:oblique; } #tetris { background-color: #edeeed; font-size: 1.2em; width: 560px; height:720px; position:relative; } #canvas { position:absolute; vertical-align: top; background: url [www.foreignpolicy.com] box-shadow: 8px 8px 8px #999; border: 2px solid #333; left:3px; width: 320px; height: 640px;} #menu { position:absolute; right:3px; vertical-align: top; width: 225px; height: 640px; } #menu p { margin: 0.5em 0; text-align: center; } #menu p a { text-decoration: none; color: black; } #upcoming { display: block; margin: 0 auto; background-color: #E0E0E0; width: 160px; height: 160px;} #controls { width:100%; position:absolute; bottom:0px; } #start { width:100%; position: absolute; bottom: 180px; text-align:center; } #creators { font-size: 0.7em; line-height: 1.2; position:absolute; bottom:8px; text-align:center; } #score { color: red; font-weight: bold; vertical-align: middle; } #rows { color: blue; font-weight: bold; vertical-align: middle; } #level { color: Fuchsia; font-weight: bold; vertical-align: middle; } #credits { font-size: 0.6em; line-height: 1.2; position:absolute; bottom:5px; } Dictatoris The Arab Spring Tetris Sorry, game cannot be run
because your browser does
not support <canvas>

score 00000

rows 0

level 1

Press Space to Play.
Arrow keys to navigate.

Idea and art by Karl Sharro @KarlreMarks

Made by Håkon Dreyer.
@haakon_d Credits:
Background images CC by Denis Bocquet and CC-BY-SA by Courtney Radsch
Dictatoris is a modification of @jakesgordon's Javascript Tetris //------------------------------------------------------------------------- // base helper methods //------------------------------------------------------------------------- function get(id) { return document.getElementById(id); }; function hide(id) { get(id).style.visibility = 'hidden'; }; function show(id) { get(id).style.visibility = 'visible'; }; function html(id, html) { get(id).innerHTML = html; }; function timestamp() { return new Date().getTime(); }; function random(min, max) { return (min + (Math.random() * (max - min))); }; function randomChoice(choices) { return choices[Math.round(random(0, choices.length - 1))]; }; if (!window.requestAnimationFrame) { // [paulirish.com] window.requestAnimationFrame = window.webkitRequestAnimationFrame || window.mozRequestAnimationFrame || window.oRequestAnimationFrame || window.msRequestAnimationFrame || function (callback, element) { window.setTimeout(callback, 1000 / 60); } } //------------------------------------------------------------------------- // IE stuff //------------------------------------------------------------------------- var G_vmlCanvasManager; // so non-IE won't freak out in canvasInit var canvas = get('canvas'), ucanvas = get('upcoming'); if (typeof (G_vmlCanvasManager) != 'undefined') { canvas = G_vmlCanvasManager.initElement(canvas); ucanvas = G_vmlCanvasManager.initElement(ucanvas); } var ctx = canvas.getContext('2d'), uctx = ucanvas.getContext('2d'); //------------------------------------------------------------------------- // game constants //------------------------------------------------------------------------- var KEY = { ESC: 27, SPACE: 32, LEFT: 37, UP: 38, RIGHT: 39, DOWN: 40 }, DIR = { UP: 0, RIGHT: 1, DOWN: 2, LEFT: 3, MIN: 0, MAX: 3 }, speed = { start: 0.6, decrement: 0.05, min: 0.1 }, // how long before piece drops by 1 row (seconds) nx = 10, // width of tetris court (in blocks) ny = 20, // height of tetris court (in blocks) nu = 5, // width/height of upcoming preview (in blocks) oldIE = false; //true if IE version 0; bit = bit >> 1) { if (blocks & bit) { fn(x + col, y + row); } if (++col === 4) { col = 0; ++row; } } }; //----------------------------------------------------- // check if a piece can fit into a position in the grid //----------------------------------------------------- function occupied(type, x, y, dir) { var result = false eachblock(type, x, y, dir, function (x, y) { if ((x = nx) || (y = ny) || getBlock(x, y)) result = true; }); return result; }; function unoccupied(type, x, y, dir) { return !occupied(type, x, y, dir); }; //----------------------------------------- // start with 4 instances of each piece and // pick randomly until the 'bag is empty' //----------------------------------------- var pieces = []; function randomPiece() { if (pieces.length == 0) pieces = [dii, dii, dii, dii, dij, dij, dij, dij, dil, dil, dil, dil, dio, dio, dio, dio, dis, dis, dis, dis, dit, dit, dit, dit, diz, diz, diz, diz]; var type = pieces.splice(random(0, pieces.length - 1), 1)[0]; return { type: type, dir: DIR.UP, x: Math.round(random(0, nx - type.size)), y: 0 }; }; //------------------------------------------------------------------------- // GAME LOOP //------------------------------------------------------------------------- function run() { addEvents(); // attach keydown and resize events var last = now = timestamp(); function frame() { now = timestamp(); update(Math.min(1, (now - last) / 1000.0)); // using requestAnimationFrame have to be able to handle large delta's caused when it 'hibernates' in a background or non-visible tab draw(); last = now; requestAnimationFrame(frame, canvas); } resize(); // setup all our sizing information reset(); // reset the per-game variables frame(); // start the first frame }; function addEvents() { if (!document.addEventListener) { document.attachEvent('onkeydown', keydown); oldIE = true; } else { document.addEventListener('keydown', keydown, false); } }; function resize(event) { canvas.width = canvas.clientWidth; // set canvas logical size equal to its physical size canvas.height = canvas.clientHeight; // (ditto) ucanvas.width = ucanvas.clientWidth; ucanvas.height = ucanvas.clientHeight; dx = canvas.width / nx; // pixel size of a single tetris block dy = canvas.height / ny; // (ditto) invalidate(); invalidateNext(); }; function keydown(ev) { var handled = false; if (playing) { switch (ev.keyCode) { case KEY.LEFT: actions.push(DIR.LEFT); handled = true; break; case KEY.RIGHT: actions.push(DIR.RIGHT); handled = true; break; case KEY.UP: actions.push(DIR.UP); handled = true; break; case KEY.DOWN: actions.push(DIR.DOWN); handled = true; break; case KEY.ESC: lose(); handled = true; break; } } else if (ev.keyCode == KEY.SPACE) { play(); handled = true; } if (handled) { if (!oldIE) ev.preventDefault(); // prevent arrow keys from scrolling the page (supported in IE9+ and all other browsers) else ev.returnValue = false; } }; function ctrlclicked(ctl) { if (playing) { switch (ctl) { case 'LEFT': actions.push(DIR.LEFT); break; case 'RIGHT': actions.push(DIR.RIGHT); break; case 'UP': actions.push(DIR.UP); break; case 'DOWN': actions.push(DIR.DOWN); break; case 'ESC': lose(); break; } } else if (ctl = 'SPACE') { play(); } }; //------------------------------------------------------------------------- // GAME LOGIC //------------------------------------------------------------------------- function play() { hide('start'); reset(); playing = true; lost = false; canvas.style.background = "url [www.foreignpolicy.com] }; function lose() { show('start'); setVisualScore(); playing = false; lost = true; }; function setVisualScore(n) { vscore = n || score; invalidateScore(); }; function setScore(n) { score = n; setVisualScore(n); }; function addScore(n) { score = score + n; }; function clearScore() { setScore(0); }; function clearRows() { setRows(0); }; function setRows(n) { rows = n; level = 1 + Math.floor((rows+0.5)/10); step = Math.max(speed.min, speed.start - (speed.decrement * level)); invalidateRows(); }; function addRows(n) { setRows(rows + n); }; function getBlock(x, y) { return (blocks && blocks[x] ? blocks[x][y] : null); }; function setBlock(x, y, type) { blocks[x] = blocks[x] || []; blocks[x][y] = type; invalidate(); }; function clearBlocks() { blocks = []; invalidate(); } function clearActions() { actions = []; }; function setCurrentPiece(piece) { current = piece || randomPiece(); invalidate(); }; function setNextPiece(piece) { next = piece || randomPiece(); invalidateNext(); }; function reset() { dt = 0; clearActions(); clearBlocks(); clearRows(); clearScore(); setCurrentPiece(next); setNextPiece(); }; function update(idt) { if (playing) { if (vscore step) { dt = dt - step; drop(); } } }; function handle(action) { switch (action) { case DIR.LEFT: move(DIR.LEFT); break; case DIR.RIGHT: move(DIR.RIGHT); break; case DIR.UP: rotate(); break; case DIR.DOWN: drop(); break; } }; function move(dir) { var x = current.x, y = current.y; switch (dir) { case DIR.RIGHT: x = x + 1; break; case DIR.LEFT: x = x - 1; break; case DIR.DOWN: y = y + 1; break; } if (unoccupied(current.type, x, y, current.dir)) { current.x = x; current.y = y; invalidate(); return true; } else { return false; } }; function rotate(dir) { var newdir = (current.dir == DIR.MAX ? DIR.MIN : current.dir + 1); if (unoccupied(current.type, current.x, current.y, newdir)) { current.dir = newdir; invalidate(); } }; function drop() { if (!move(DIR.DOWN)) { addScore(10); dropPiece(); removeLines(); setCurrentPiece(next); setNextPiece(randomPiece()); clearActions(); if (occupied(current.type, current.x, current.y, current.dir)) { lose(); } } }; function dropPiece() { eachblock(current.type, current.x, current.y, current.dir, function (x, y) { setBlock(x, y, current.type); }); }; function removeLines() { var x, y, complete, n = 0; for (y = ny; y > 0; --y) { complete = true; for (x = 0; x 0) { addRows(n); addScore(100 * Math.pow(2, n - 1)); // 1: 100, 2: 200, 3: 400, 4: 800 canvas.style.background = "url [www.foreignpolicy.com] + level % 10 + ".jpg)"; } }; function removeLine(n) { var x, y; for (y = n; y >= 0; --y) { for (x = 0; x

Live: 'Sex issue' authors Eltahawy and Sadjadpour speak at the New America Foundation

Posted: April 30, 2012, 10:31 pm by Joshua Keating

Live streaming by Ustream Among the articles in Foreign Policy's Sex Issue, none have generated as much debate as Mona Eltahawy's "Why Do They Hate Us?" and Karim Sadjadpour's "The Ayatollah Under the Bed(sheets)." The discussion will continue today in Washington, as both authors join in a conversation about their articles with FP editor-in-chief Susan Glasser. You can watch the event, co-hosted by our neighbors at the New America Foundation, through the livestream available here, beginning at 4 p.m. EST.

Morning Brief: United States stays quiet on Chinese dissident's whereabouts

Posted: April 30, 2012, 3:35 pm by Uri Friedman

United States stays quiet on Chinese dissident's whereabouts

Top story: The Obama administration has yet to comment on mounting speculation that Chinese rights activist Chen Guangcheng is at the U.S. embassy in Beijing (pictured above), but it has reportedly dispatched State Department official Kurt Campbell to meet with Chinese officials about Chen's fate. The blind lawyer escaped from house arrest last week.

The talks come ahead of scheduled visits to China by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner later this week. "This is the greatest test in bilateral relations in years, probably going back to '89," former CIA analyst Christopher K. Johnson tells the New York Times, in reference to the suppression of protests in Tiananmen Square.

Chinese authorities, meanwhile, are furiously blocking web searches of terms related to Chen's escape -- ranging from "Shawshank" (a reference to an American prison-break film) to "UA898" (a United Airlines flight from Beijing to Washington).

Syria: Two suicide bombings in the Syrian city of Idlib on Monday killed at least eight people, according to state media, shortly after state television reported that attackers had struck the Syrian Central Bank in Damascus with rocket-propelled grenades. At the moment, there are only around 15 U.N. ceasefire monitors in Syria.

Africa

Sudan declared a state of emergency along its border with South Sudan amid continued fighting between the two sides.

The Ugandan military accused Sudan of supporting Joseph Kony's Lord's Resistance Army.

A bomber attacked a Nigerian police convoy a day after at least 19 people were killed in two attacks on church services in the country.

Europe

Shukri Ghanem, a former Libyan prime minister and oil minister under Muammar al-Qaddafi, was found dead in the Danube river in Austria.

The British government said it had made every effort to secure the release of a British aid worker who was murdered in Pakistan.

The Spanish economy has officially slipped back into recession.

Asia

A U.S. drone strike reportedly killed three suspected militants in Pakistan's tribal region.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged the international community to lift sanctions against Myanmar in an address to the country's parliament, as the opposition called off a boycott of parliament.

Protesters in Malaysia accused the police of brutality in breaking up a large demonstration.

Middle East

Israel began building a wall along part of its border with Lebanon.

A Bahraini appeals court ordered retrials for more than 20 activists, including Abdulhadi al-Khawaja.

Benzion Netanyahu, the father of Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, died at age 102.

Americas

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is meeting with President Barack Obama at the White House.

A French reporter is missing after a clash between the Colombian military and FARC rebels.

Peru is investigating the mysterious death of hundreds of pelicans along its northern coast.

Goh Chai Hin/AFP/Getty Images

The Election 2012 Weekly Report: A post-Gingrich world

Posted: April 27, 2012, 11:53 pm by Joshua Keating

Biden goes on the attack, but doesn't ‘stick' the landing

Vice President Joe Biden continued to step into his role as the Obama campaign's leading national-security attack dog with a speech at New York University on Thursday that questioned Mitt Romney's credentials to serve as commander-in-chief and accused him of distorting the president's record. "If you're looking for a bumper sticker to sum up how President Obama has handled what we inherited, it's pretty simple: Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive," Biden said. He also again mocked Romney's suggestion that Russia is America's primary geopolitical foe and defended the administration's handling of the Iranian nuclear program, saying, "The only step we could take that we aren't already taking is to launch a war against Iran. If that's what Gov. Romney means by a 'very different policy,' he should tell the American people."

Unfortunately for Biden, the line of the speech that got by far the most coverage was his confident assertion that "the president has a big stick."

Rubio grabs the spotlight

The day before Biden's speech, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio made a "major foreign policy address" of his own at the Brookings Institution. The speech generated quite a bit of buzz thanks to suggestions that Rubio may be on the shortlist for Romney's running mate. (For the record, Rubio has repeatedly denied that he's interested in being vice president.)

But despite the expectation that Rubio would use the speech as an audition for a spot on the ticket, Rubio differed from Romney on topics including foreign aid, the use of force in Syria and Libya, and negotiating with Iran. Saying that he often feels more affinity with hawkish democrats than isolationist republicans in the Senate, Rubio joked that "on foreign policy, if you go far enough to the right, you wind up on the left."

The Syria debate

Sure enough, the very next day Rubio found himself in a tussle with fellow Senate Republicans over a resolution he had co-sponsored condemning the Bashar al-Assad regime's violence in Syria. GOP Senators including Richard Lugar and Bob Corker objected to language calling on Assad to step down. The debate highlighted a split in opinion within the party on Syria. House GOP members demanded assurances this week that the White House would notify Congress in accordance with the war powers act should military action be taken in Syria.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called his week for the U.N. Security Council to impose an arms embargo and other tough measures on Syria. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey also told Congress that the Pentagon would be ready to provide military options in Syria should it be required.

Romney has advocated support for the anti-Assad opposition, but stopped short of supporting military involvement -- breaking with more aggressive members of his party such as Sen. John McCain. Romney campaign foreign policy director Alex Wong said this week that the Obama administration has been "shamefully absent from this crisis" in Syria.

Newt out

After five devastating primary losses to Romney, Newt Gingrich's campaign announced on Wednesday that the candidate is finally dropping out ... though not until next Tuesday. A spokesman said Gingrich is "laying out plans now how as a citizen he can best help stop [an] Obama second term and win congressional majorities." It's thought that he will most likely endorse Romney.

The former speaker of the House ends his campaign having won two states and 137 delegates -- but he leaves behind a legacy of out-of-the-box ideas on topics ranging from the virtues of janitorial work to algae fuels to conquering the moon.

Just like Condi

A CNN poll this week found that former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is a narrow favorite among Republicans for Romney's VP pick. (Now teaching at Stanford, she has said repeatedly that she's not interested in the job.) Rice, at 26 percent, is followed by Rick Santorum, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and Marco Rubio. Interesting, despite the Florida senator's moderate views on immigration and internationalist foreign policy, he's still the favorite among self-described Tea Party supporters.

The latest from FP:

Paul Miller makes the case for Gen. David Petraeus as vice president.

Responding to Biden's speech, Michael A. Cohen says the Democrats need to decide if Romney is George W. Bush or Michael Dukakis.

Romney campaign advisor Richard Williamson says the recent North Korean nuclear test was Obama's Jimmy Carter moment.

Aaron David Miller offers 5 reasons why he believes Obama has the election in the bag.

Joshua E. Keating thinks Rubio's speech was pitched more toward 2016 than 2012.

Scott Clement looks at whether Americans still hate the United Nations.

From Passport, the difference between a slip of the tongue and genuine ignorance.

A Chen Guangcheng primer

Posted: April 27, 2012, 11:42 pm by Isaac Stone Fish

The blind, self-taught legal activist Chen Guangcheng has escaped from his village in Shandong province where he was kept a prisoner in his own home and fled to Beijing. The New York Times quoted an official at the Chinese Ministry of State Security as saying Chen had made it to the U.S. embassy, though the State Department hasn't confirmed or denied if Chen is inside.

Chen become famous for filing a class action lawsuit in 2005 on behalf of woman who underwent forced sterilizations; he was later imprisoned for three years for "damaging property and organising a mob to disturb traffic" and then kept under de facto house arrest. Chen's house became a spot of pilgrimage for human rights activists, a sort of adventure tourism for Chinese who wanted to experience for themselves the thuggishness their country has to offer. Batman actor Christian Bale tried to visit as well but was forcibly turned away; "What I really wanted to do was to meet the man, shake his hand and say what an inspiration he is" Bale said at the time.

It's a sensitive time for the United States to consider offering Chen asylum, as China is still reeling from the downfall of high ranking leader Bo Xilai, a scandal precipitated by an associate of his seeking refuge in the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu.

This is at least the second time that Chen has escaped from house arrest. "The night gives me an advantage," he told Time Magazine, after fleeing from an early house arrest in August 2005 to Beijing. "I can navigate better than people with sight can."

Middle East coverage is full of lies

Posted: April 27, 2012, 4:29 pm by David Kenner

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It has not been a banner week for media coverage of the Arab world. Blame it on journalists unfamiliar with their subject matter, the demands of an ever-quicker news cycle, or simply salacious stories that were "too good to check" -- a number of stories that have made it into major media outlets recently are simply not true, or omit essential details of the tale.

First, and most infamously, we have the "farewell sex" episode. The story, which was reported in al-Arabiya and the Pulitzer Prize-winning Huffington Post, goes like this: Islamists in the Egyptian parliament were contemplating a bill that would allow husbands to have sex with their wives for six hours after death. The only problem? As the Christian Science Monitor's Dan Murphy writes, the story is "utter hooey." The rumor was initially advanced in an opinion piece by a partisan of deposed President Hosni Mubarak's regime, and caught fire in the international media from there - without anyone doing a basic fact-check.

While the "farewell sex" report is simply gross, the next story on the docket is the stuff of nightmares. The "buried alive" video reportedly shows soldiers loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime burying an opponent of the regime in a pit of dirt. The soldiers taunt the buried activist, telling him to say "there is no God but Bashar." Britain's Daily Mail and the Israeli outlet Ynet called it the "most horrific video" yet to emerge from the Syrian uprising -- a high bar.

This case is more difficult than the "farewell sex" story -- however, there do seem to be significant concerns about the video's authenticity. As this fact-check on Storyful explains, the video was originally posted on the Facebook page of a group that coordinated anti-Assad activism in southern Syria. However, the video was removed from the page yesterday, soon after it began to attract scrutiny. Other concerns, which have also been raised by an editor at the BBC, relate to the clarity of the audio. It's important to point out that nobody can conclusively prove that the video is fake -- but there are more than enough red flags here to hold off on publishing it

If "farewell sex" and "buried alive" stories are examples of journalistic malpractice, the third example is more of a misdemeanor. The Washington Post reported yesterday that Vogue's infamous profile of Syrian First Lady Asma al-Assad had been scrubbed from its website. That's true, as far as it goes, but it's also old news -- the profile was scrubbed from Vogue's site roughly a year ago, shortly after Assad's brutal crackdown on protesters began. You'd also think that the Post would want to give credit to journalists like The Atlantic's Max Fisher, who covered this story months ago.

But fear not, journalists of the world. Two Lebanese comedians are currently on trial in what has been dubbed "the case of the Superman underpants." It all began in December 2009, when Edmund Hedded revealed a few square inches of his boxers during a stand-up comedy show at a bar in Lebanon. That was enough for him to be arrested and charged under an act in the penal code that condemns "frivolity" -- a crime that, if fully enforced, would condemn a significant portion of the population of Beirut to jail. Incredibly enough, this story actually appears to be true.

Morning Brief: Downgraded Spain faces record-high unemployment

Posted: April 27, 2012, 3:21 pm by Uri Friedman

Downgraded Spain faces record-high unemployment

Top story: Spain announced on Friday that the country's unemployment rate had hit 24.4 percent in the first quarter of 2012 -- the highest rate in the eurozone. The release of Spain's record-high unemployment figures followed the rating agency Standard & Poor's decision to downgrade the country's credit rating to BBB+, which puts Spain on par with Italy.

"Spain is in a crisis of huge proportions," Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo warned in a radio interview. Markets initially reacted negatively to the news out of Spain but have since recovered "as the downgrade was largely viewed as a belated acknowledgment of the market realities," according to the Associated Press.

The developments come as Spain slips back into recession and moves to the forefront of the European debt crisis despite the Spanish government's austerity measures and labor market reforms.

Chinese dissident escapes: Chen Guangcheng, a blind rights activist who had been under house arrest in Shandong province, has escaped from his home and may now be in Beijing, though his whereabouts are unclear. In a video posted online, Chen demanded that Prime Minister Wen Jiabao punish officials who had abused him and his family.

Europe

Four explosions struck the Ukrainian city of Dnipropetrovsk in a suspected terrorist attack.

The Netherlands reached an agreement to meet budget targets set by the European Union.

A Dutch judge upheld a new law prohibiting foreigners from entering cannabis coffee shops.

Asia

The United States agreed to move thousands of Marines out of Okinawa, Japan.

Pakistan's prime minister refused to resign after the Supreme Court convicted him of contempt of court.

An Afghan special forces soldier killed a U.S. soldier and his translator in southern Afghanistan.

Americas

The U.S. Secret Service is investigating fresh allegations of agents paying for strippers and prostitutes in El Salvador.

The United Kingdom banned exports to Argentina's military amid a standoff over the Falkland Islands.

A U.S. federal judge rejected a request to release photos and video of Osama bin Laden from the raid on his compound.

Middle East

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the Syrian government was "in contravention" of envoy Kofi Annan's peace plan.

At least 13 people were killed in attacks in Iraq's Diyala province.

Pakistan deported Osama bin Laden's three widows and children to Saudi Arabia.

Africa

The West African bloc ECOWAS will send troops to Mali and Guinea-Bissau in response to coups in both countries.

The U.N. Security Council is considering sanctions against Sudan and South Sudan.

Ghana has become the first African country to simultaneously offer children rotavirus and pneumococcal vaccines.

Cristina Quicler/AFP/Getty Images

Inside Boxun, China's media muckraker

Posted: April 26, 2012, 1:39 am by Isaac Stone Fish

Last week, U.S. web hosting company Name.com received an email ordering them to stop unregister the domain of Boxun, a Chinese news portal run out of North Carolina. Boxun, which has the same retro, link-heavy feel as Craigslist or Drudge Report, serves as a clearinghouse of the rumor and intrigue circulating the web about Chinese elite politics. "We have our sources," says Watson Meng, a Duke University graduate from China who founded the website in 2000 and still runs it, supervising the editing and posting of an average of more than ten articles daily.

Since former police chief Wang Lijun fled to a U.S. Consulate in Chengdu in February, precipitating the downfall of Politburo rising star Bo Xilai and China's biggest political scandal in decades, Meng's site has published and reposted stories about Bo's wife's links to the Tiananmen square massacre, a text message Bo's brother apparently sent last week that said Bo Xilai's case had been "settled," and reports that the Bo case has finally given President Hu Jintao control over the military. "We got the eavesdropping story weeks ago," he said, referring to recent reports that Bo had spied on other leaders. Many of Boxun's stories appear to be true; others feature what could best be called speculation supported by anonymous sources. Still, it's been an exceptional three months for the website, which has seen its traffic increase by 160 percent.

A source familiar with the matter forwarded me the original English-language email Name.com received: "Hello, due to a domain name of your platform: "boxun.com", serious damage to the interests of my company, now we hope you stop any services for this domain immediately...Please pay attention, we would began to attack in a few hours except satisfying our conditions. Please treasure your own commercial interests, if for any loss caused to you, please forgive!!!" [ellipsis mine, spelling and grammar same as in the original.]

After the email, Meng says Name.com was hit by a ferocious denial-of-service attack of "ten gigabytes" a second and Boxun found a new server. Name.com did not respond to a request for comment, and Meng didn't say where the email was sent from.

By his counting, Meng's website has been attacked dozens of times. Last January, with the Arab Spring gaining steam in the Middle East, Meng posted calls for a "Jasmine Revolution" in China from an anonymous group. Pro-Communist Party groups "were pretty hardcore about this," he said. "They put my family's names online. That was the first time that happened." Meng grew up in a small county in rural Hebei province in the 1960s and 1970s, where his parents still live. During the Cultural Revolution, many urban youth were sent to villages across China. I asked if that was the case with him and he replied, "nope, we were always peasants." His father was a local functionary on the county's science committee; his mother was a farmer. His family on the whole is supportive of his actions and he's not worried about them. "The Cultural Revolution has already passed," he said. "There are not too many illegal things people can do to my family."

Meng thinks this web attack was specifically ordered by Zhou Yongkang, the ninth ranking member of the Politburo Standing Committee and ideological ally of Bo. Meng describes him as a "very strong person who runs the PSB, state security, or, well, don't know if he runs anything anymore," though he thinks Zhou will keep his position until the next Party Congress this fall. In earlier Boxun posts, Meng has speculated that Bo and Zhou had been working together to overthrow Xi Jinping. "We believe Wang Lijun already told the U.S. Consulate that Bo Xilai had a plot to stop Xi Jinping's rise" he said, citing "reliable sources."

Since Chinese official news outlets usually function as mouthpieces of the Communist Party, rather than trustworthy providers of fact or clearly sourced opinion, Chinese readers are comparatively more trusting of Weibo (microblogs), rumors, and sites like Boxun. Wang is currently looking into a 2002 crash of a flight from Beijing to Dalian, in which more than 100 people died. He thinks Bo orchestrated the crash to kill the wife of a political rival, who was carrying evidence that could have been harmful for the former powerbroker. "He's done so many things to cover up this or cover up that," Wang said. He declined to elaborate on what proof he has for his latest claim and the scenario seems somewhat farfetched, but, like all of Boxun's stories, it falls within the realm of possibility.

The Carmen Sandiego election

Posted: April 26, 2012, 6:30 pm by Joshua Keating

Everyone seems to be having some fun at the expense of Romney campaign advisor Pierre Prosper, who referred to "Czechoslovakia" when discussing missile defense in a conference call with reporters. Lord knows we've done our share of foreign-policy gaffe-spotting around here and it's fair to expect candidates and their surrogates to understand the global issues they discuss, but this is kind of a cheap shot. I think it's important to emphasize the difference between slips of the tongue and actual displays of ignorance about the world.

Is it really likely that Prosper, a former U.N. war crimes prosecutor, State Department staffer, and ambassador-at-large doesn't know Czechoslovakia broke up in 1992? Or is it more reasonable to assume that he simply slipped and said the name that had been in use for the first 40 years of his life? (John McCain also got in trouble with "Czechoslovakia" in 2008.) Similarly, is it more likely that President Obama doesn't know that "Maldives" and "Malvinas" are different places or that he just slipped and mentioned the wrong island chain that starts with Mal-? These errors would get a contestant kicked off "Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego?" but they don't actually tell us much about a candidates' knowledge of the world.

The problem with Herman Cain's Ubeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan moment was not that he can't immediately recall the name of every head of state, it's that he mocked the idea that such knowledge would ever be necessary. Sarah Palin would have deserved a lot more slack for the infamous Katie Couric interview if she had merely mixed up whether Putin was president or prime minister or some such slip. The problem was that she was clearly feigning having any sort of knowledge about the vitally important country right next door.

It's good that we want to test candidates' knowledge of world affairs, but a geography bee isn't the best way to do it. In this election cycle, there will be more than enough actual ignorance to go around.

Franklin Graham calls for U.S. airstrikes on Sudan

Posted: April 26, 2012, 4:56 pm by Joshua Keating

In a Washington Times op-ed, the evangelical leader and son of Billy Graham says U.S. airpower is the only way to stop the escalating violence in the Nuba mountains:

Now I am asking him and his administration to do something that may sound unusual for a preacher of the Gospel. I am asking him to use our Air Force to destroy Mr. Bashir’s airstrips - the airstrips his military uses to launch bombers that carry out daily attacks in the Nuba Mountains. The Nuba people don’t want American soldiers - they can fight for themselves. They just want to be free. But they have no defense against bombs dropping from the sky on their villages, schools and hospitals.

As a pilot with 40 years of experience, I can assure you that an airplane doesn’t do well with holes in the runway. I certainly am not asking the president to kill anyone, just to break up some concrete to prevent the bombers from taking off. I think that by destroying those runways, we can force Mr. Bashir to the negotiating table. This needs to happen soon because Sudan’s rainy season is coming. If we continue to turn our backs and don’t act, it will be too late for thousands of men, women and children. We need to make it possible for Samaritan’s Purse and other aid agencies to reach these suffering people. The coming rainy season and impassible muddy roads will leave us with airlifts as our only option. But with Sudan’s MiG fighter jets and Antonov bombers overhead, we simply can’t risk the lives of our staff.

In a 2011 interivew with Foreign Policy, Graham said that he "found Bashir to be somebody you could speak with, could negotiate with."

Morning Brief: Violence continues in Hama

Posted: April 26, 2012, 3:36 pm by Joshua Keating

Violence continues in Hama

Top news: Syrian activists claim that up to 70 people were killed in an explosion that flatted part of a residential neighborhood in the city of Hama. Activists claim the explosion was caused by government shelling or a scud missile attack. State media put the number killed at 16 and said the explosion came from a rebel bomb-making factory.

According to the opposition, more than 100 people have been killed in Hama in recent days, despite a U.N. brokered ceasefire. Violence has continued in the Syrian capital as well.

U.N. envoy Kofi Annan told the Security Council on Tuesday that Syrian troops had not withdrawn from population centers. Two U.N. observers have now returned to Hama ahead of a team of 300 that the U.N. would like to send. Syria's main opposition group is calling for a special Security Council session to discuss the ongoing violence in Hama.

France's foreign minister said on Wednesday that the U.N. should consider allowing international military action in Syria if the peace plan fails.

International justice: At the Hague, former Liberian President Charles Taylor was convicted on 11 counts of aiding and abetting war crimes in Sierra Leone during the 1990s. He is the first African head of state convicted by an international tribunal.

Asia

The New York Times reports that ousted politician Bo Xilai ran an extensive spying network on fellow Chinese leaders.
Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani was found guilty of contempt.
Japanese power broker Ichiro Ozawa was acquitted of charges in a political financing scandal.

Middle East

The head of the Israeli Defense Forces said in an interview that he does not believe Iran will develop nuclear weapons.
The White House has approved the expanded use of drones in Yemen.
Egypt confirmed that former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq will be allowed to compete in the upcoming presidential election.

Africa

There has been an explosion at the headquarters of a major newspaper in Abuja, Nigeria.
China has agreed to provide South Sudan with loans and humanitarian aid but not a new oil deal.
Mali's interim prime minister formed a government.

Europe

Testifying before a government ethics inquiry, Rupert Murdoch apologized for the News of the World hacking scandal.
The Dutch caretaker government is scrambling to reach a budget deal before a Monday EU deadline.
Germany's president has canceled a trip to Ukraine over concerns about the health of jailed former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

America

The Mexican government says it will investigate corruption claims involving Wal-Mart.
Brazil's congress passed a controversial new forests law.
Argentina's senate approved the nationalization of oil company YPF.

LOUAI BESHARA/AFP/Getty Images

Foreign Policy wins Overseas Press Club award

Posted: April 25, 2012, 8:47 pm by Uri Friedman

We're very excited to announce that Foreign Policy has won an Overseas Press Club award for general excellence on the web. In a reminder of the major international news stories this past year, six of the OPC's 27 awards were related to coverage of the Libyan uprising and four to coverage of Japan's earthquake and tsunami. The awards will be presented at a dinner tonight in New York.

Thanks to all of you for helping make ForeignPolicy.com such a vibrant destination!

Turkey's Kurdish leadership debates the definition of terrorism

Posted: April 25, 2012, 5:26 pm by Allison Good

Members of Turkey's Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) proposed a more decentralized Turkish government at a Brookings Institution panel on Tuesday.

"We don't believe that a centralized system of government that manages all of these different ethnic groups and communities is viable and productive," said BDP chairman Selahattin Demirtas. "We see this [decentralized government] as the most viable alternative."

Demirtas also emphasized that he is not calling for a completely independent Kurdish entity:

"We are not talking about the Kurdish people [living] in a region called Kurdistan."

Though he stressed that the BDP has no "organic relationship" with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which the Turkish government classifies as a terrorist organization, Demirtas noted that the PKK is not the problem, but a result of the problem:

"We believe the PKK is part of the reality of this conflic, and we believe that they should be communicated with.... We don't see the PKK as a problem, we see it as a result of the problem."

Ahmet Türk of the Democratic Society Party (DTP) agreed, and urged the audience to consider that the Turkish government's longstanding policy of denying its Kurdish citizens their civil rights might be the root of the problem.

"You don't provide Kurds an opportunity to express themselves, so the PKK emerged."

While Demirtas made sure to explain that his party does not condone violence, he did take issue with the Turkish government's definition of terrorism:

"This means of violence that is being used has to be understood correctly. The simple, traditional [definition of] terrorism cannot be used here. This is a 100-year-old conflict.... As long as you are unable to define it correctly, the wrong definition will cause misunderstanding."

BDP member and Turkish parliamentarian Gülten Kisanak argued that the PKK's numbers are evidence that the government must rethink its position toward the organization:

"According to data provided by the Turkish chief of staff, since 1978 40,000 Kurds have participated in the PKK and lost their life in fighting the struggle. I believe these numbers cannot be seen as terrorism in that sense."

The BDP may support President Abdullah Gül's call for a new "flexible and freedom-based" constitution, but its forward-thinking notions about the PKK isn't going to win it many points with Ankara.

Morning Brief: Pakistan follows India with missile test

Posted: April 25, 2012, 3:09 pm by Uri Friedman

Pakistan follows India with missile test

Top story: Pakistan announced on Wednesday that it had successfully tested an intermediate-range, nuclear-capable ballistic missile, less than a week after archrival India test-fired a long-range missile that can also deliver a nuclear warhead. The Pakistani military said the Shaheen-1A launched into the Indian Ocean today has a longer range than its predecessor, the Shaheen-1 (pictured above).

Pakistani defense analyst Mansoor Ahmed tells the New York Times that the test was not in response to India's and that "Pakistan is only concerned with maintaining a minimum credible deterrent capability vis-a-vis India." India, for its part, framed its test as an effort to counter China's regional power.

Meanwhile, speculation is mounting that North Korea may carry out a third nuclear test after a failed rocket launch.

Double-dip in Europe: New data shows that the U.K. economy contracted in the first quarter of 2012 after shrinking in the fourth quarter of 2011, which technically means that the United Kingdom has returned to recession. Spain revealed on Monday that it too had slipped back into recession.

Middle East

Violence continued in and around Damascus despite a ceasefire and observer mission in Syria.

Israel's military chief raised doubts about Iran's intent to build nuclear weapons, as Israel's prime minister expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of sanctions against Tehran.

A court found the Egyptian actor Adel Imam guilty of insulting Islam.

Europe

News Corporation Chairman Rupert Murdoch testified before a judicial inquiry on his business practices and ties to British politicians.

Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko launched a hunger strike in prison.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said he would not strike a deal with the far-right in his reelection bid.

Asia

China subtly warned North Korea not to carry out an expected nuclear test.

The Supreme Court in the Philippines ruled that an estate belonging to the country's president should be split up among 6,000 farmers.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has reportedly launched an investigation into whether Hollywood studios paid bribes in China.

Americas

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney secured five more primary victories.

The son of ousted Chinese politician Bo Xilai defended his academic record and lifestyle in a letter to the Harvard Crimson student newspaper.

Two Cuban actors who appeared in a film about Cuban defectors appear to have defected in Miami.

Africa

The African Union is demanding that Sudan and South Sudan adhere to a peace deal.

South African youth leader Julius Malema lost an appeal against his expulsion from the ruling African National Congress.

Two attacks in central Nigeria have left five people dead.

Pakistan Ministry of Defense via Getty Images

Haitian former soldiers demonstrate why Haiti probably shouldn't have an army

Posted: April 24, 2012, 1:10 am by Joshua Keating

Last year, Haitian President Michel Martelly announced plans to recreate the country's military. The army had been disbanded in 1995 after a decade that included its killing of some 3,000 people. Given that military coups have traditionally been more of a threat to Haiti's security than foreign invasion, a number of critics questioned whether a new army was really a good use of Haiti's scarce resources, rather than improving its regular police force so that it could take over policing responsibilities from the unpopular U.N. peacekeeping force.

The recent actions of a renegade group of former army officers, who are essentially attempting to take the elected government hostage in order to get their old jobs back, aren't exactly reassuring:

A rogue band of armed men pushing for revival of Haiti’s military are refusing to disband and clear out of old military bases, the leaders of the group said Tuesday, despite repeated orders from the government.

In a news conference at an army barracks just outside Haiti’s capital, several veterans of the defunct army said Haitian officials broke a promise by failing to appoint them to the helm of an interim force until the military is officially reinstated.[...]

The Haitian government has repeatedly ordered the former soldiers and their followers, which number about 3,500, to vacate the old bases they seized several months ago, but it has taken no concrete action. Since then, the rogue force has paraded around the country in pickup trucks and carried weapons as if on patrol.

Last week, about 50 men in military fatigues, some of them armed, disrupted a legislative session when they showed up to speak to lawmakers about the government's plans for them.

Jeff Frankel recently wrote for FP about why more countries should consider going without a standing army:

It's hard to quarrel with the need for a permanent military establishment in many countries. But in many others, a standing army is a bad deal all round. It doesn't make borders any more secure if neighbors respond by raising armed forces of their own. It creates the permanent threat of a military coup -- or, at very least, limits the range of policy options of civilian government. And of course, it costs resources, diverting money, foreign exchange earnings and manpower from conventionally productive activities (like making stuff people want).

Such arguments haven't carried much weight, though; once an army is created to meet a threat (real or imagined), it's almost impossible to get rid of it. But two developing countries have managed to remain military-free for generations. Costa Rica abolished its army in 1948 after a bloody civil war -- a decision made in part because the United States believed its interests lay in blocking a return to power of the losing side. And Mauritius chose not to create an army after it was granted independence by Britain in 1968.

Obviously, it wouldn't work for every country. But Haiti seems like a textbook example of a place where an army would create more dangers than it prevented.

Herman Cain still doesn't know who the president of Uzbekistan is

Posted: April 24, 2012, 7:42 pm by Joshua Keating

Or rather, he did know at some point, but has now forgotten again. It comes at about the 2 minute mark:

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
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The whole interview with the Daily Show's John Oliver is worth watching, particularly the speech Cain would give in the event of an alien invasion. (For what it's worth, I really wish that was an actual debate question.)

Business as usual for China and India?

Posted: April 24, 2012, 6:39 pm by Joshua Keating

If Pakistani leaders had hoped to profit from military tension between China and India following last week's long-range missile test, it looks like they're going to be disappointed. China yesterday agreed to begin importing basmati rice from India, a foodstuff it had previously bought exclusively from Pakistan. According to the Times of India, "Islamabad is known to have been persuading China not to allow Indian basmati because it will affect its already small export basket."

Kanupriya Kapoor of the Financial Times explains the significance of the move:

Basmati rice is currently traded at $1100 per tonne. As eating habits change with rising disposable incomes in the world’s second biggest economy, Sethia is confident Indian rice will find a place in China

“China wants rice because their per capita incomes are rising and they want to try new things,” he said. “there are some areas that consume long-grain rice so with effort, we can achieve some penetration of this market. We are a surplus market, so this is good for both countries.”

Trade between India and China grew nearly 20 per cent to hit a record high of $73.9bn in 2011, according to the India-China trade center, though the trade gap stood at about $27bn in China’s favour.

The military buildup between Asia's two superpowers doesn't seem likely to slow that growth down.

Morning Brief: Sudan bombs South Sudan as Bashir vows not to negotiate

Posted: April 24, 2012, 3:23 pm by Joshua Keating

Sudan bombs South Sudan as Bashir vows not to negotiate

Top news: Sudan continued its bombardment of South Sudan yesterday, with jets launching missiles into the state capital of Bentiu. Officials say eight bombs in total were dropped last night. There have also been reports that Sudanese troops have crossed the border into their recently independent Southern neighbor. *

South Sudan announced last week that it was withdrawing from the disputed Heglig border region in order to avoid all-out war, but the scope of the current attacks seem to go beyond Heglig, and Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has vowed not to negotiate until all South Sudanese troops are out of Sudan since southern leaders “do not understand anything but the language of the gun and ammunition." Last week, he referred to the South Sudanese leadership as "insects" and vowed to drive them from power.

South Sudanese President Salva Kiir is currently in Beijing to lobby for Chinese diplomatic and economic report. He said that Sudanese actions amount to a declaration of war, though neither side has yet issued a formal declaration.

Since independence last year, the two countries have argued over territorial disputes, oil pipeline rights, and accusations of supporting rebel groups within each others' countries. U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon urged both sides "to stop the slide toward further confrontation and... to return to dialogue as a matter of urgency."

Washington: President Obama outlined his administration's genocide prevention policies in a speech at the U.S. Holocaust Museum as well as announcing new sanctions on Syria and Iran.

Middle East

The Egyptian government rejected registration applications from eight U.S. NGOs.
A Syrian intelligence officer was reportedly killed in a car bombing in central Damascus.
Iran has disconnected some its Persian Gulf oil platforms from the Internet after reports of a cyberattack.

Europe

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced the resignation of his government after failing to agree on austerity measures.
The EU has suspended most of its sanctions on Myanmar.
Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has reportedly gone on a hunger strike in prison.

Americas

A Pew reports confirms that more Mexicans are now leaving the United States than entering.
Wal-Mart may pay millions to resolve bribery allegations in Mexico.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez called a state TV station to refute rumors that he had died while receiving cancer treatment in Cuba.

Africa

Nigeria's parliament is due to discuss a report revealing $6 billion in fraud related to the country's fuel subsidy.
A protester was killed during a separatist demonstration in Kenya's Mombasa region.
The International Criminal Court may investigate reports of atrocities in Mali.

Asia

A Philippine exploration firm has found more natural gas than expected in a disputed area of the South China Sea.
Chinese state media reported that former officials from Wukan have been punished for their town's high-profile rebellion.
Pakistan's Supreme Court is due to announce the verdict in the contempt trial of Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani today.

Update: The timeline of these events has been updated since first posted.

ASHRAF SHAZLY/AFP/Getty Images

Kazakh foreign minister thanks Borat for making benefit country's tourism

Posted: April 23, 2012, 9:08 pm by Joshua Keating

Seven years later, Kazakhstan is still talking about Borat. They now seem to have made peace with the whole thing:

"With the release of this film, the number of visas issued by Kazakhstan grew tenfold," local news agencies quoted Foreign Minister Yerzhan Kazykhanov as telling a session of parliament.

"I am grateful to 'Borat' for helping attract tourists to Kazakhstan," the foreign minister said.

Things have certainly changed since the film came out, when the Kazakh government attempted to ban not only the film but access to Sacha Baron Cohen's website.

Kazykhanov's statement also seems a little odd given the massive global branding campaign -- including heavy advertising aimed at tourists -- that the energy-rich nation has engaged in over the last few years. I'm actually not sure I buy that the increased interest in traveling to Kazakhstan is largely Borat-related. You would think they'd give themselves a little more credit.

Marine's moment

Posted: April 23, 2012, 7:31 pm by Joshua Keating

So much for the Mélenchon surge.

The far-left candidate in yesterday's French election came in fourth with a little over 11 percent of the vote. Though it was the best result by a "left of left" party since the Communist Georges Marchais took 15 percent of the vote in 1981, it was definitely eclipsed by the impressive showing of his arch-rival Marine Le Pen of the National Front. At 18 percent, Le Pen has shocked the French political establishment with 18 percent of the vote -- the Front's best showing ever. (In 2001, her father made it to the second round of the election but with a lower vote total.) The Front often exceeds its polling thanks to a kind of reverse Bradley effect in which French voters are embarrassed to tell pollsters they support the far right.

The strong showing by the far right might seem to be good news for Sarkozy in the second round. However, while 90 percent of Mélenchon voters say they'll hold their nose and vote for Hollande in the second round -- and the candidate himself has unambiguously endorsed Hollande -- the far right is not nearly as monolithic:

According to a poll published by Ipsos, a French market research company, 18% of National Front voters will vote for Hollande in the second round, while 60% will opt for Sarkozy.

22%, however, have not yet decided.

Le Pen has also not yet asked her supporters to vote for Sarkozy in the second round. That's likely going to mean a lot more pandering to anti-immigrant sentiment from Sarkozy in his last-ditch effort to make up ground -- and further legitimization of Europe's growing tide of Islamophobia.

Former Icelandic PM convicted for negligence over financial collapse

Posted: April 23, 2012, 6:38 pm by Joshua Keating

In 2009, Iceland's Geir Haarde became the first European leader to lose power as a result of the financial crisis. (Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte seems to be the latest.) He is now also the first country leader in the world convicted of negligence because of the crash, though he was cleared of three other charges and will face no jail time. Haarde's prosecution has unsurprisingly been controversial:

Mr Haarde pleaded not guilty and called the accusations “political vendetta” that would set a “terrible precedent”. “Nobody predicted that there would be a financial collapse in Iceland” in 2008, he said.

Criticism of the trial has been widespread throughout Iceland. Many questioned why the centre-left controlled parliament chose to put only Mr Haarde on trial while rejecting charges against Social Democratic ministers who were serving in government at the same time.

Others have criticised that fact that the trial was not televised and complained that much of the political elite of Iceland chose to support Mr Haarde with their testimony.

The case against him was based partly on the charge that he had ignored the economic recommendations of a government committee in 2006. The notion of prosecuting a politician for ignoring sound advice seems pretty odd in the U.S. political context, though under the principle of "ministerial responsibility" that, in theory at least, prevails in parliamentary systems, ministers are held responsible for the actions of their subordinates, even if they are not solely to blame.

Of course, criminal liability for an act of mere incompetence is another thing entirely. As I wrote in 2010, Haarde was charged under a century-old Icelandic law, which has never before been invoked, that "stipulates that ministers can be held responsible not just for actions that put the country in danger, but for not taking action to prevent that danger."

Other European leaders are probably safe from Haarde's fate. (Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is currently on trial for a different type of indiscretion.)

The good news is that the financial bleeding seems to have stopped in Iceland, which is expected to exceed euro area growth rates this year.

The death of a newspaper

Posted: April 23, 2012, 3:47 pm by David Kenner

It's an old story: Journalists tend to see their occupation as a calling, and investors see newspapers as a business. At Egypt's only independent English-language print daily, the balance sheets won out.

Daily News Egypt announced yesterday that it was closing after over seven years in business. In a combative editorial, the Daily News staff lamented that the paper's closure had come "quite abruptly" and noted that they had "specifically and repeatedly requested" that the paper's owners allow them to keep the website online - a request that evidently went unheeded, as the website went offline yesterday,

In the somber Daily News offices last night, the white board that laid out the next day's agenda of stories had been wiped clean, and the collection of tchotchkes that gathers in any newsroom -- in the case of this Egyptian paper, a gas mask that allowed its staff to cover the revolutionary upheaval over the past year -- had been stripped away. The staff's editors were busy downloading their archived issues -- insurance that their years of work would not disappear should they fail to reclaim the website.

The paper was one more casualty of Egypt's deteriorating economy, which is projected to grow at a paltry 1.5 percent in 2012 and has bled $21 billion in foreign reserves during the past year. "The paper was without ads for a whole year," said Rania al-Malky, while bouncing her toddler, Hassan, on her lap. "And the hotels are empty, so nobody is buying newspapers."

Egypt's problems aside, the truth of the matter is that independent journalism in the Middle East is always a tenuous endeavor. The only question is how tenuous. Newspapers in the region face two primary ills, both of which can be fatal to quality journalism: a shortage of money and an excess of political influence. It is a testament to the long hours that employees put in, and a shared sense that the work carries a meaning not expressed solely in a paycheck, that newspapers like the Daily News exist in the first place.

Sometimes, newspapers in the region are forced to pick their poison: poverty or politicians. Lebanon's Daily Star was at one time the Daily News' sister publication -- both were the local partners for the International Herald Tribune in their respective countries. In 2009, the Daily Star was subject to a court-ordered shutdown after the publisher fell hopelessly in debt -- without warning, security officers showed up at the paper's Beirut offices and evicted the staff, even ordering them to leave their personal laptops. The Daily Star would return to newsstands, but its money problems would only be solved when it was purchased by one of Lebanon's wealthiest politicians, Saad Hariri.

Back in the Daily News offices, there were plenty of good memories about which to reminisce. The newspaper covered the 2011 revolution against Hosni Mubarak with aplomb -- it was one of the few offices with working Internet access after the Egyptian regime ordered Internet service providers to cut off service in a failed bid to stop the growing protests.

Hassan, the only one in the office unaware that the Daily News had put out its last issue, entertained the crowd by playing with a BlackBerry. When he handed it back to one of the editors, the staff, to his delight, cheered in approval. "Someone's getting some applause in this office, at least," said Malky.

Finally, the inevitable moment came -- the investors, perhaps irked by the editorial, pulled the plug on the Daily News' last remaining connection to their audience. "That's it; they closed the site," Malky announced, clicking her mouse at the computer. And then Hassan banged his head against the doorway and started crying, and shortly after, the staff drifted out.

Morning Brief: Sarkozy suffers setback in French presidential race

Posted: April 23, 2012, 2:53 pm by Uri Friedman

Sarkozy suffers setback in French presidential race

Top story: French President Nicolas Sarkozy received 27.1 percent of the vote in the first round of the country's presidential election on Sunday, while his Socialist challenger Francois Hollande finished with 28.6 percent (French Twitter users flaunted a ban on publishing early results by speaking in code). The contest, which will be followed by a second round of voting on May 6, marks the first time that a sitting French president has lost in the first round, according to the BBC.

In another first, National Front leader Marine Le Pen garnered 18 percent of the vote -- the largest share a far-right candidate has ever won in the French presidential election. On Monday, Sarkozy promised to control immigration and prioritize national security, in what Reuters interprets as a bid to woo Le Pen's supporters.

The outcome of the election will have major implications not only for France but also for Europe as a whole. Hollande has pledged to renegotiate a European Union fiscal treaty and promote solutions to the region's debt crisis that Germany opposes.

War in Afghanistan: Afghanistan and the United States completed a strategic partnership agreement that promises American support for Afghanistan for a decade after the withdrawal of U.S. combat troops in 2014.

Middle East

Iran claimed to have extracted secret data from an American drone that it captured last year.

Anti-government protests in Bahrain did not disrupt the Formula One Grand Prix on Sunday.

Egypt's state-owned natural gas company halted the delivery of gas to Israel over a payment dispute.

Africa

There are reports of aerial attacks and ground fighting along the disputed border between Sudan and South Sudan.

Former Malawian President Bingu wa Mutharika will be buried at his farm in southern Malawi.

Eritrea accused the CIA of spreading "lies" about the health of its president.

Europe

The collapse of budget talks in the Netherlands has prompted talk of early elections.

Spain slipped back into recession according to new data from its central bank.

Norway shooter Anders Behring Breivik apologized for killing "innocent" people in his Oslo bombing but did not express regret for his rampage at a Labour Party summer camp.

Americas

A new report alleges that Wal-Mart shut down an internal investigation that had unearthed evidence of bribery by a subsidiary in Mexico.

The International Monetary Fund increased its lending capacity by $430 billion at an annual meeting in Washington, D.C.

Mexican police are investigating the fatal shooting of a retired general in Mexico City.

Asia

Aung San Suu Kyi's party in Myanmar is boycotting parliament over the wording of the oath of office for lawmakers, as the European Union suspends its sanctions against the country.

North Korea is escalating its rhetoric against South Korea's leaders after Pyongyang's failed rocket launch.

Police clashed with demonstrators in Bangladesh's capital amid anger over a missing politician.

Jean-Francois Monier/AFP/Getty Images

Romney's new foreign policy spokesman: Quite the tweeter

Posted: April 20, 2012, 12:40 am by Uri Friedman

When Mitt Romney's campaign announced on Thursday that the Republican presidential candidate had hired Richard Grenell, a former Bush administration spokesman at the United Nations, as his foreign policy and national security spokesman, early reports focused on the fact that Grenell is openly gay.

But this afternoon, Politico highlighted another side of Grenell: The man is a prolific tweeter -- one who dishes out zingers to those who get on his bad side, whether they be Newt Gingrich ("what's higher? The number of jobs newt's created or the number of wives he's had?"), Callista Gingrich ("do you think callista's hair snaps on?"), or Rick Santorum ("im rick santorum and gay people should be deported").

As tends to happen in today's compressed news cycle, Grenell has already apologized for "any hurt" his tweets caused, telling Politico that they were meant to be "tongue-in-cheek and humorous" and that he'll remove them from Twitter.

But Grenell hasn't deleted all his scathing comments, many of them related to foreign policy. Here are some of the issues that provoke his anger again and again (as you'll see, there's a lot of overlap). Now that Grenell is Romney's spokesman, we'll probably be hearing these critiques of the Obama administration's foreign policy more and more in the months ahead.

U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice: "can someone at the StateDepartment tell SusanRice that SHE'S the US Ambassador to the UN. #StatementsDontCutIt"

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: "secretary of state hillary clinton speaks more clearly about finding amelia earhart's plane than the sudan crisis. #AllPoliticsForHer"

Obama's open mic gaffe about needing flexibility on missile defense: "I'm waiting for Obama to whisper to Mexico's leader 'i need flexibility on the illegal thing til after November'"

Obama administration's response to Syria: "why is SusanRice the only American left holding out for #Assad to 'seize the moment'. he's seized 9 thousand moments so far!"

Obama administration's response to Iran: "SusanRice's tenure in short: no action on Syria's violence, trips to DC, nothing on Iran in 22 months, more trips to DC, lots of tweets"

Media bias: "day 6 and still no tweet from Andrea @Mitchellreports on Obama's secret whisper requests for 'flexibility' from Russian president #oops" (Yes, there were previous updates.)

But come on, people. Today's episode is about more than what Grenell thinks of Callista's hair or Newt's marriage life (or, for that matter, Obama campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt's eyebrows -- another deleted tweet not mentioned by Politico).

No, the real question is: Why haven't politicos learned by now that you scrub your Twitter feed of all controversial content before you enter the political limelight?

Two years after the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, BP's business is booming

Posted: April 20, 2012, 6:55 pm by Allison Good

Two years ago today, British Petroleum's Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling rig exploded, causing the largest oil spill in U.S. history. Though BP reached an "estimated multibillion-dollar settlement" with lawyers representing individual and business plaintiffs in the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill, the Gulf Coast is strill struggling to recover from the disaster. Fish are dying, Louisiana's seafood industry is reeling, and Gulf Coast residents and cleanup workers continue to experience health problems tied to the spill.

After taking measures such as sacking then-CEO Tony Hayward, running an aggressive advertising campaign throughout the region, and settling on the multibillion-dollar payout, BP continues to shower the Gulf Coast with goodwill. According to Mike Utsler, president of BP's Gulf Coast Restoration Organization, the company is still spending "millions of dollars" on the cleanup operation, and even offering guided tours of the recovery efforts.

Millions of dollars, of course, is just a drop in the bucket for BP, which Forbes recently called "one of the greatest corporate survival stories in history":

"Since last year BP has risen a remarkable 379 spots to 11th place in The Forbes Global 2000 survey. Key to the climb is a return to profitability in a big way. In 2010 BP took a $41 billion charge against earnings, giving shareholders their financial whipping all at once rather than dribbling it out over years. In 2011 BP reversed the previous year's $3.3 billion net loss, posting $26 billion in income, with promises of a further profit surge in the years ahead, thanks to high gasoline prices and a new slate of projects coming online."

One of the 15 new projects that BP plans to bring online by 2015 is its first post-spill well, Kaskida, located 250 miles southwest of New Orleans. If anything goes wrong, one hopes CEO Bob Dudley won't be as insensitive as his predecessor.

Tahrir splinters

Posted: April 20, 2012, 6:36 pm by David Kenner

From all over Egypt, thousands of protesters converged on Tahrir Square today to protest -- well, what, exactly?

At some level, the answer is obvious: All the Egyptians in Tahrir are opposed to the continuation of military rule under the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). But after that, the reasons people filled the streets today diverged significantly. And that ideological division was expressed in physical terms as well: Egyptian blogger Zeinobia counted nine separate stages in the square, each representing a different political movement.

Islamists made up a clear majority of the crowd, but liberal and leftists group were present as well. As FP contributor Ashraf Khalil pointed out, the (huge) stage for Salafist Hazem Abo Ismail, a former presidential contender who was disqualified by Egypt's electoral commission last week, was sandwiched between the stages of leftist and youth political movements.

While many protesters had clearly come out to tout their preferred presidential candidate, the recent disqualifications have not affected some Egyptians' political loyalties. The two boys pictured above are "Hazemouna" -- supporters of Abo Ismail, despite the fact that he has been banned from contesting the upcoming election. In an effort to be ecumenical, they reassured me that my name, David, was shared by Muslims and Christians alike.

The other looming issue is the drafting of the post-Mubarak Egyptian constitution. The process was thrown into turmoil on April 10, when a Cairo court ruled that a Parliament-appointed assembly to draft the new constitution was unrepresentative of Egypt's many political currents, and that a new body had to be appointed. The military is supposed to return to its barracks by July 1, but some protesters fear that the SCAF could hijack this process to grant themselves a prominent political role in the new Egypt. Below, protesters march to Tahrir carrying signs that read "People of Egypt, play your role. People of Egypt, write your constitution."

So yes, thousands of Egyptians gathered in Tahrir today -- but they came for many different reasons and to express many different loyalties. As the military's role in Egyptian politics becomes less visible (if not necessarily less influential), expect to see those differences increasingly come to the surface.

Morning Brief: Security Council mulls response to ongoing violence in Syria

Posted: April 20, 2012, 3:08 pm by Uri Friedman

Security Council mulls response to ongoing violence in Syria

Top story: On Thursday, Syria and the United Nations agreed to allow at least 250 unarmed observers into the country to monitor a ceasefire, as foreign ministers from Arab and Western nations in Paris for a Friends of Syria meeting called envoy Kofi Annan's peace plan the "last hope" to avoid civil war in Syria.

But serious complications remain. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and news outlets have reported evidence of ceasefire breaches over the past week, and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged the U.N. Security Council to slap an arms embargo and other sanctions on Syria if the violent crackdown persists.

France, meanwhile, is drafting a new Security Council resolution that would dispatch 500 monitors and helicopters to Syria, as Ban urges the Security Council to quickly pass a resolution authorizing the deployment of up to 300 observers. Russia, which did not attend the Friends of Syria meeting, appears to be supportive of expanding the observer mission but not imposing additional sanctions.

French election: Nicolas Sarkozy's reelection prospects are looking bleak ahead of the first round of voting on Sunday. Sarkozy could become the first one-term French president since 1981.

Africa

Fighting is spreading along the disputed border between Sudan and South Sudan.

Mali's ousted leader, Amadou Toumani Toure, fled to neighboring Senegal.

A new scientific report has highlighted a vast supply of groundwater beneath Africa.

Middle East

Police in Bahrain are clashing with protesters ahead of the Grand Prix this weekend.

Al Qaeda's affiliate in Iraq claimed responsibility for a wave of bombings in the country on Thursday.

Thousands of protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square called for an end to Egypt's military rule.

Asia

Chinese authorities are reportedly detaining officials in Chongqing with ties to Bo Xilai for questioning.

Myanmar's President Thein Sein is visiting Japan to discuss financial aid and debt relief.

The Chinese press is ridiculing India's long-range missile test.

Americas

The United States freed two Chinese Muslim detainees at the Guantanamo Bay prison, in the first prisoner transfer there in more than a year.

The Secret Service is expanding its inquiry into the prostitution scandal in Colombia.

Princess Cruises apologized for one of its ships sailing past a stricken boat carrying three Panamanians, two of whom later died.

Europe

Norway shooter Anders Behring Breivik said he'd studied al Qaeda's tactics before embarking on his rampage last year.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned the news media to be careful about how it reported teenage suicides, which have spiked recently.

Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi made an unexpected appearance at his trial for paying for sex with an underage girl.

Francois Guillot/AFP/Getty Images

Decline Watch: The U.S. is getting less popular (but not where Republicans think)

Posted: April 19, 2012, 11:19 pm by Joshua Keating

Gallup and the Meridian International Center released their annual U.S. global leadership Report today. (You can find the full version here and highlights here.)

The big takeaway is that global approval of U.S. leadership in 2011 continued its slow slide since the excitement of Barack Obama's election -- though the country is still much more popular than it was in the last years of the Bush administration:

While some of luster of the Obama administration does seem to be wearing off, what's interesting is that it's not in the countries you might think, given the rhetoric of the presidential election. The "allies" that most frequently come up in Republican rhetoric still pretty much like us. Even after a contentious year in mideast diplomacy, approval for U.S. leadership in Israel is basically unchanged at 55 percent. In Britain, despite various perceived snubs, approval of U.S. leadership improved by 13 points. As for the countries that Obama has supposedly thrown under the bus as part of the Russia reset, Georgia and Poland both showed slight improvements.

The fall in support was actually driven by Africa, where approval fell by 10 percent last year but is still quite high at 74 percent, Latin America, where it fell by 6 percent, and European countries like France, Germany, Spain and Sweden, all of which posted double-digit declines in U.S. support. If, as Mitt Romney charges, “This president takes his inspiration from the capitals of Europe," they don't seem very appreciative of it. I would guess that the culprit in Latin America is the perceived lack of change in U.S. policies on trade, immigration, and drugs under Obama. Africans might be upset that despite his Kenyan roots, the president hasn't made the region much of a priority in his foreign policy.

Gallup's data from the Middle East and North Africa is a little spotty, but there doesn't seem to have been that much of a change in approval following the Arab Spring -- the U.S. remains pretty unpopular.

The country with the biggest drop popularity was Liberia, where approval of the U.S. when down 25 points. Perhaps non-Ellen Johnson Sirleaf supporting Liberians were unhappy with Washington's tacit endorsement of the Nobel Prize winner in last year's election? That doesn't really seem like a big enough factor to explain that big a drop, so I'm guessing this was something a fluke.

Belgium saw the biggest improvement from 29 percent to 45 percent. Anyone have any guesses on how America got out of the Belgian dog house?

Is the left the real story in the French election?

Posted: April 19, 2012, 8:09 pm by Joshua Keating

In the lead-up to this weekend's French presidential election, there's been quite a bit of attention paid in the U.S. media (including some fine pieces on this site) to the impact of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen on the race. While Le Pen has no chance of winning, and little chance of even making it to the second round, her substantial support has pushed Nicolas Sarkozy to the right on questions of immigration and Islam.

But I wonder if, when the dust settles, the real story of this election might be the resurgence of the French "left of the left," in the person Left Party candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The 60-year-old ex-Trotskyite who left the labor party in 2008 when he felt it had moved to far to the center, favors confiscating income above 360,000 euros per year and outlawing layoffs by profitable companies. His message seems to have struck a chord in post-crash France. He is currently polling at around 15 percent, putting him in competition with Le Pen for third place. His appeal seems to extend not just to communists -- still a considerable demographic in the French electorate -- but to disenfranchised Socialist voters as well.

Aside from ideology, Mélenchon's blunt style -- "dickhead" and "bird brain" are among the insults he's publicly hurled at journalists who've gotten on his bad side -- couldn't be more of a contrast with the milquetoast Socialist frontrunner Francois Hollande. Not surprisingly, a plurality of voters -- 21 percent -- say the former student radical who grew up in Algeria is the "most rock'n'roll" candidate. Sarkozy got 5 percent and only 1 percent picked Hollande. (Efforts to make Hollande's image a little hipper have been painfully awkward.)

A strong showing by Melenchon in the first round could push Hollande to continue his slow drift to the left, which has included a recent call for a tax rate of 75 percent for all income over 1 million euros. After two decades in which it seemed like a bit of a joke that center-left European parties were still calling themselves "socialists," the old-style left may be showing signs of life.

Morning Brief: India tests nuclear-capable missile that can reach Beijing

Posted: April 19, 2012, 3:26 pm by Joshua Keating

India tests nuclear-capable missile that can reach Beijing

Top news: India successfully tested a nuclear-capable missile on Thursday with a range of more than 3,100 miles, giving it the ability to strike Beijing or Eastern Europe. The test of the primarily Indian-built Agni-V was the crowning achievement of a new arms building effort undertaken with neighboring China in mind. (Agni IV pictured.) The new missile will be operational in two years.

Defense Minister A.K. Antony said the test indicated that India had “joined the elite club of nations.” Until now, only the permanent five Security Council members, plus Israel, were thought to have long-range nuclear missile capability. India is not a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, but its nuclear program enjoys de facto international legitimacy under a 2008 deal with the United States.

Reaction from China was mixed. "China and India are large developing nations. We are not competitors but partners," said a foreign ministry spokesman. But the government-owned Global Times tabloid warned that "India should not overestimate its strength."

The development will highlight growing fears of an arms race in East Asia. China announced a double-digit increase in military spending in March while India recently became the world's number one arms importer.

Also on Thursday, South Korea announced that it had developed and deployed a missile capable of striking any target within North Korea.

Feature: The Colombian escort at the center of the Secret Service scandal speaks with the New York Times. Three agents are being forced out of the service.

Asia

The U.S. and NATO have finalized agreements on winding down the war in Afghanistan.
U.S. officials condemned that actions of troops who posed for photographs with the corpses of Afghan insurgents.
Aung San Suu Kyi's party is in a standoff with the Myanmar government over the wording of a swearing-in oath for newly elected lawmakers.

Middle East

At least 36 people were killed in a wave of bombings across Iraq on Thursday.
Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said Syria is failing to adhere to a U.N. sponsored peace plan.
The CIA is seeking authority to expand its covert drone campaign in Yemen.

Africa

The U.S. special envoy to Sudan condemned the South Sudanese seizure of a contested oil town. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir vowed to teach South Sudan a "final lesson by force" in response to the seizure.
Guinea-Bissau's new military junta says it will wait two years before holding elections.
Ousted Malian President Amadou Toumani Toure -- whose whereabouts have been unknown -- is at the Senegalese embassy in Bamako, according to Senegal's president.

Europe

The Irish parliament has begun debating a bill on allowing abortion in certain cases.
Spain's cabinet if meeting tomorrow to discuss possible retaliation for Argentina's seizure of YPF.
The European parliament backed a controversial plan to give the United States access to personal information about airline passengers.

Americas

More than 1,100 Cubans were detained during the Pope's recent visit.
Mexican police seized more than 250,000 bullets being smuggled into the country from the United States.
Thousands of rural workers in Honduras took part in coordinated land invasions.

Naveen Jora/India Today Group/Getty Images

Susan G. Komen foundation teams up with Uzbek dictator's daughter

Posted: April 18, 2012, 6:15 pm by Joshua Keating

Given that it's still reeling from the controversial, and eventually reversed, decision to suspend funding to Planned Parenthood -- fundraising is reportedly down 30 percent for some of its events -- you'd think breast cancer advocacy group Susan G. Komen for the Cure would want to steer clear of potential political controversy.

Evidently not. As Nathan Hamm notes at Registan, Komen is partnering with Fund Forum, a charity run by Gulnara Karimova, the socialite, part-time pop star daughter of Uzbek President Islam Karimov, to sponsor a series of charity runs in Uzbekistan. In addition to her dad's atrocious and well-publicized human rights record, Gulnara herself has been implicated in a range of illegal business practices, including essentially taking over rival companies at gunpoint. Then there are disturbing reports of widespread forced sterilizations of women in Uzbek hospitals and evidence that's it's being encouraged by the authorities.

You might expect this sort of thing from the fashion industry, or say, Sting, but Komen should probably know better at this point.

Update: Apparently Gulnara's other big charity campaign these days is a program dubbed “1,000 weddings, 1,000 circumcisions.” So there's that.

Update 2: Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} A Susan G. Komen representative has contacted us to clarify that the organization is partnering not with Fund Forum, but with the National Breast Cancer Association of Uzbekistan. The two organizations seem to share both web space and an address in Tashkent.

Fund Forum itself seems under the impression that it is sponsoring the event. It has declared itself a fundraising partner for the race and is featured its own name as a sponsor on posters along with Komen. A previous edition of the marathon was described GulnaraKarimova.com as "a brainchild of Gulnara Karimova."

What was really going on in that racist Swedish cake photo?

Posted: April 18, 2012, 5:34 pm by Joshua Keating

If you spent some time on the Internet yesterday, you've probably seen it already -- the photo of laughing Swedish culture minister Lena Adelsohn Liljeroth cutting into a cake designed as a racist caricature of an African woman. Or Jezebel succinctly put it, "Swedish Official Gleefully Cuts Racist Black Lady Cake, Delights Onlookers." More disturbingly, the cake was intended as a statement on female genital mutilation and Liljeroth was asked to whisper "Your life will be better after this!" before cutting into the crotch. The image has provoked outrage in Sweden's black community and calls for Liljeroth's resignation.

As it turns out, that may have been part of the idea. In a guest post at the always-worth-reading Africa Is A Country blog, Swedish music blogger Johan Palme gives some context for the event. Accoring to Palme, Lijeroth is "reviled by large parts of the art world for her culture-sceptic stance and for previously condemning provocative art in what many see as a kind of censorship," making the atmosphere already a bit tense at the celebration of World Art Day she was attending at Stockholm's Moderna Museet:

The cake is wheeled out and uncovered. The crowd stares, tittering nervously. The culture minister is placed at the crotch end, and starts cutting into the cake – when suddenly the head starts screaming in pain. It’s the artist, Makode Linde, whose own painted head is placed as the head of the cake. The crowd’s tittering erupts in nervous laughter; the uncomfortable humour of the situation, the classic Swedish fear of conflict, triggered by the surprise sound and movement. Lena Adelsohn-Liljeroth tries to play along as best she can in what she sees as a “bizarre” situation, reciprocating the laughter.

And on the other side of the cake, placed in the narrow space in front of a glass wall, stands one of the minister’s fiercest critics, visual artist and provocateur Marianne Lindberg De Geer, camera at the ready. And she snaps pictures of the whole series of events, as the minister is egged into doing more outrageous things, performing for the crowd.

It’s of course no coincidence. The whole thing was carefully planned, a “mousetrap” as one Swedish artist puts it. And based on how much traction the picture of the event has garnered, it was a very efficient mousetrap indeed.

Who’s Makode Linde, who staged the whole event? He is a visual artist, and as such has continuously asked uncomfortable questions about race, racial stereotyping and his own position as a black man in a condescending elite art world. The golliwog figure is a consistent image in his artwork, being placed on everyday objects, on paintings grinning nervously at the king, gawking in horror from children’s faces, at times undergoing almost formalist destruction. But just as importantly: he’s a club promoter and DJ, one of Sweden’s most successful, who knows exactly how to manipulate crowds and their emotions.

Palme wonders if the picture of Liljeroth and crowd's nervous reaction was actually the work of art here, rather than cake itself. The full post is well worth reading. You can still question Liljeroth's reaction here, but what's shown in the photo is a bit more complicated than a government minister laughing at a "Racist Black Lady Cake."

Morning Brief: North Korea backs out of U.S. nuclear deal

Posted: April 18, 2012, 3:09 pm by Uri Friedman

North Korea backs out of U.S. nuclear deal

Top story: On Tuesday, North Korea declared that it was no longer bound by a deal with the United States in February to suspend uranium enrichment, nuclear tests, and long-range missile tests in exchange for food aid, which Washington halted after Pyongyang's failed rocket launch last week. An agreement to allow nuclear inspectors into the country has also fallen apart.

"We have thus become able to take necessary retaliatory measures," the North Korean Foreign Ministry said in a statement, which came shortly after the U.N. Security Council condemned North Korea for its rocket launch and ordered additional sanctions against the country.

North Korea didn't specify what form that retaliation would take, but some fear that Pyongyang is planning a third nuclear test. "Many analysts expect that with its third test, North Korea will for the first time try a nuclear device using highly enriched uranium," Reuters notes.

Myanmar: Lawmaker and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi will travel outside Myanmar for the first time in more than two decades, according to her party, in yet another sign of the country's opening. She'll visit Norway and Britain in June.

Middle East

Syrian security forces are reportedly shelling Homs despite a ceasefire, as the wives of the British and French ambassadors to the United Nations release a video plea to Asma al-Assad.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas sent a letter to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterating his preconditions for peace talks to resume.

At least 1,200 Palestinians in Israeli jails launched coordinated hunger strikes.

Asia

India will test fire an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai delivered an emotional speech on his vision for an independent Afghanistan, as the United States and NATO finalize their withdrawal plan.

China summoned a diplomat from the Philippines once again over tensions in the South China Sea.

Americas

Argentina's nationalization of the oil firm YPF has provoked threats of retaliation from Spain.

American investigators are searching for up to 21 women who may have spent the night with U.S. security officers in Colombia.

Investor Warren Buffett has been diagnosed with stage one prostate cancer.

Europe

Norway shooter Anders Behring Breivik faced questioning from prosecutors on the third day of his trial.

A Libyan military commander is suing a former British foreign minister for illegally transferring him to Libya, where he faced torture under Muammar al-Qaddafi.

British authorities arrested the Muslim cleric Abu Qatada only months after he was released following a failed effort to deport him.

Africa

Malian soldiers reportedly arrested several top political figures, including two men who had planned to run for president.

Sudan and South Sudan are clashing on a new front along their disputed border.

The United States criticized Swaziland for its crackdown on protests last week.

Pedro Ugarte/AFP/Getty Images

Who's whispering in David Ignatius's ear?

Posted: April 17, 2012, 6:58 am by Blake Hounshell

Washington Post columnist David Ignatius has been on a tear lately: breaking news on the files found in Osama bin Laden's Abbottabad safe house, revealing details of the backchannel negotiations between Erdogan and Ayatollah Khamenei, and now, channeling the Obama administration's negotiating strategy toward Iran.

At a time when Thomas Friedman is writing his 35th column complaining about the state of America's train system and urging New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg to launch a third-party bid for the presidency, Ignatius is far and away America's must-read columnist right now. Iggy has always been known for his top-notch sources, especially in the intelligence community, but his columns seem especially well-sourced of late -- it's almost as if he has a weekly lunch with Tom Donilon or something.

Let's take a look at his latest. Ignatius says that "the smart money in Tehran is betting on a deal" -- picking up on a rise in the Iranian stock market to argue that a nuclear agreement is in the offing. "So far," he writes, "Iran is following the script for a gradual, face-saving exit from a nuclear program that even Russia and China have signaled is too dangerous. The Iranians will bargain up to the edge of the cliff, but they don’t seem eager to jump." According to Ignatius, under this deal, "Iran would agree to stop enriching uranium to the 20 percent level and to halt work at an underground facility near Qom built for higher enrichment. Iran would export its stockpile of highly enriched uranium for final processing to 20 percent, for use in medical isotopes."

In exchange, Iran would get ... nothing, at least right away. Ignatius suggests that the Europeans would agree to delay implementing their oil embargo, set to take effect July 1, and the Americans would delay their own fresh round of sanctions due to be implemented in late June.

Frankly, I don't see how this can work. There do seem to be signs that Khamenei is laying the political groundwork for a deal, for instance by bringing his pragmatic former president, Ali Hashemi Rafsanjani, back into his good graces. But any deal that doesn't visibly benefit Iran -- rather than merely preventing future harm -- will inevitably be viciously attacked within the country's fragmented political system. And I suspect, given his past behavior, that the supreme leader will stick his finger in the air before staking out a clear public position.

It seems equally unlikely that President Obama will risk handing an electoral issue to his rival Mitt Romney by making any real concessions to Tehran. Americans may not be eager to fire up the B-52s -- and the Pentagon certainly isn't -- but they don't want to see their president look weak. And even if Obama did cut a deal, Republicans and pro-Israel groups would likely make a lot of noise, and might even be able to derail it.

Then there's Israel, which has set the bar extremely high for these negotiations, insisting among other things that Iran shut down its Fordow enrichment plant -- the one it spent years building in secrecy and burying 200 meters beneath a mountain outside the city of Qom at a cost of millions of dollars. Indeed, everything the Obama administration agrees to apparently has to be vetted with the Israelis, who have completely unrealistic notions about what Iran is willing to accept.

Moreover, the intricately choreographed arrangements of the type Ignatius suggests seem hard to imagine given the deep levels of distrust between the two sides. It beggars belief to think that two countries whose diplomats will barely even sit in a room with one another can work out "confidence-building measures" that will survive the political maelstrom news of a deal would unleash. We are not anywhere close to a Nixon going to China moment, in any sense of that hackneyed historical analogy.

What will most likely happen, as Time's Tony Karon lays out here, is that the can gets kicked further down the road: Talks will proceed for the sake of talks, and a decision about whether to bomb will be deferred until at least November (unless Iran crosses a red line like installing next-generation centrifuges at Fordow).

All of which is a long-winded way of saying that if you want to know what the Obama administration is thinking, read David Ignatius. But don't expect to be optimistic once you do.

Introducing Anna Badkhen's 'Afghanistan By Donkey'

Posted: April 17, 2012, 12:20 am by Joshua Keating

It's been another week of heartbreakingly grim violence in Afghanistan. On Monday, the so-called "spring fighting season" began with a coordinated 18-hour Taliban attack on Kabul. Today, the violence got -- if possible -- even more senseless, with reports of the poisoning of 150 schoolgirls in the northern Takhar province and an explosion at a maternity hospital in Khost.

The scale and cruelty of the violence can often feel incomprehensible, which makes incisive reporting like Anna Badkhen's all the more valuable. Her new e-book is now available for download.

Badkhen, a courageous war correspondent, decided to embed not with American troops but with the Afghan people in 2011. Throughout the year, she returns again and again to the country, traveling by foot, by taxi - and even by donkey - to the remote villages and hamlets of the Afghan North, reporting as the Taliban take over large swaths of territory and also on the unimaginable daily hardships of life in a place where even such basics as water, electricity, a doctor, and a working school are impossible luxuries.

It's a place so remote that even the death of Osama bin Laden barely registers, where war is taken as a fact of life, along with the rituals of mourning and celebration that Badkhen is allowed to witness up close. As bestselling author Peter Bergen says in the special accompanying introduction, it is "a bleak tale told by an expert storyteller."

Maldives, Malvinas, one of those.

Posted: April 17, 2012, 11:51 pm by Joshua Keating

The president appeared to be having some difficulty with his archipelagos in this clip from a press conference with Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos. At 20:30, he means to say "Malvinas," the Spanish name for the Falkland Islands, but instead says "Maldives," an Indian-ocean nation:

Some right-wing bloggers are making the case that the real issue here is that Obama was favoring the Argentinean position on the disputed island chain by using, or at least attempting to use, the Spanish name -- yet another anti-British slight. But if you watch the whole video, Obama was responding to a question from a Spanish-speaking reporter who used the word "Malvinas" and his answer was strenuously neutral:

"And in terms of the Maldives or the Falklands, whatever your preferred term, our position on this is that we are going to remain neutral. We have good relations with both Argentina and Great Britain, and we are looking forward to them being able to continue to dialogue on this issue. But this is not something that we typically intervene in."

That's not good enough for some British observers, who want the U.S. to vocally support the British position on the islands, but the administration has made it pretty clear it's not interested in going near this dispute -- a hot-button issue in Latin American politics.

But in any case, it's definitely not the Maldives.

Julian Assange's TV debut

Posted: April 17, 2012, 11:19 pm by Joshua Keating

The first episode of Julian Assange's new TV show, The World Tomorrow, premiered on RT today with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as the first guest. Aside from a quick intro and a goofy theme song by M.I.A., it's a pretty spartan affair, consisting solely of Assange and his translators speaking with Nasrallah over skype. The newsiest quote was probably Nasrallah's fairly staunch defense of Bashar al-Assad's crackdown on protesters:

From the beginning of the events in Syria, we’ve had constant contact with the Syrian leadership. We’e spoken as friends, giving each other advice about the importance of carrying out reforms. Right from the beginning, I personally found that President Assad was very willing to carry out radical reforms. This used to reassure us regarding the positions that we took.[...]

We contacted even elements of the opposition to encourage them and to facilitate the process of dialogue with the regime. These parties rejectged dialoguel. Right from the beginning we’ve had a regime that is willing to undergo reforms and open to dialogue. On the other side, you have an opposition that is not prepared for dialogue and is not prepared to accept any reforms. All it wants is to bring down the regime.

The house-arrested Assange is a fairly generous interviewer by cable news standards, letting his guest do most of the talking. The questions were mostly softballs along the lines of Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} "What was your earliest memory as a boy?," "How did you manage to keep your people together under enemy fire?" and Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} "Why do you think the United States government is so scared of [Hezbollah satellite network] al-Manar?

Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} Things got a bit odd with Assange's last question, in which he asked the reglious extremist, "Isn’t Allah, or the notion of God, the ultimate superpower? Shouldn’t you as a freedom fighter also seek to liberate people from the totalitarian concept of a monotheistic god?" Not surprisingly, Nasrallah didn't buy the premise of the question.

It wasn't the most penetrating interview -- interestingly, there was only one question about the contents of a WikiLeaks cable and Nasrallah denied the veracity of it -- but that's probably why Nasrallah was willing to talk with him in the first place. (According to Assange, this was his first interview with "western" media since the 2006 war with Israel.) If he can keep getting the kind of high-profile guests who would never go near a mainstream journalist with a ten-foot poll, the show will probably continue to be worth watching.

Who would you like to see sit down with Assange next?

Morning Brief: Bo Xilai reportedly blocked murder investigation of wife

Posted: April 17, 2012, 3:20 pm by Joshua Keating

Bo Xilai reportedly blocked murder investigation of wife

Top news: More details are coming to light in the murder and corruption scandal that has rocked China's ruling elite. Reuters is reporting that former Chongqing party boss Bo Xilai had allowed and then tried to block an official investigation into allegations that his wife was behind the murder of a British businessman. Neil Heywood, who was found dead on Nov. 15 and is now believed to have been poisoned, had allegedly been threatening to expose a plan by Bo's wife, Gu Kailai, to move money out of the country.

Bo's police chief, Wang Lijun, reportedly confronted Bo with evidence of Gu's involvement on Jan. 18 and was first allowed to proceed with his investigation before Bo quashed it several days later. Wang apparently attempted to seek asylum at the U.S. consulate on Feb. 6 before being arrested.

Gu and Wang are currently in custody while Bo has not been seen in public since March. The scandal involving Bo, once seen as a shoe-in for a senior party leadership post, has exposed what some observers have called the largest rift within the party since Tiananmen Square. While not mentioning Bo specifically, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao called corruption the greatest threat to the party in an interview with a respected political journal this week.

British Prime Minister David Cameron has promised to raise the issue of Heywood's death in a meeting with a senior Chinese official at Downing Street this week. Chinese officials initially said that Heywood, who had lived in China for 10 years, died as a result of excessive alcohol consumption, an explanation accepted by the British embassy and his family. The British government has reportedly decided to allow Heywood's Chinese widow to enter the country if she wishes.

Scrutiny has also fallen on Bo's son Bo Guagua, a Harvard student whose flamboyant lifestyle has reportedly irritated party leaders.

Development: U.S. candidate Jim Yong Kim was selected to lead the World Bank.

Asia and Pacific

Prime Minister Julia Gillard said that Australia will withdraw from Afghanistan earlier than planned.
The U.S. and Philippines began joint military exercises.
The U.N. Security Council strongly condemned North Korea's rocket launch but stopped short of new sanctions.

Middle East

A team of six U.N. observers set up headquarters in Damascus.
The Israeli military has suspended a soldier who was videotaped beating a pro-Palestinian activist.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has said his country never promised the U.S. it would hold off on attacking Iran while nuclear talks are taking place.

Americas

The Argentinian government is seizing a majority stake in the country's largest oil company, provoking threats of retaliation from Spain. .
Prisoners at a Brazilian jail have released more than 400 hostages taken during a riot.
A magnitude-6.7 earthquake hit central Chile.

Europe

Accused mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik lashed out at the Norwegian government on the first day of his trial.
The Spanish government threatened to seize budget control of several regions if they do not mee budget targets.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy is denying allegations that he tried to sell a nuclear reactor to Muammar al-Qaddafi in 2010.

Africa

Coup leaders in Guinea-Bissau have shut down the country's borders and airport. The African Union has suspended the country's membership.
The politicians were arrested in connection with the allegedly fraudulent purchase of a presidential plane in Cameroon.
Sudan's parliament voted to declare South Sudan a "enemy state."

MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images

Egypt's invisible strongman

Posted: April 16, 2012, 1:46 am by David Kenner

If you were to hold a contest for the most powerful person in Egypt today, the debate would likely center on an array of well-known personalities: Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, leader of the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) perhaps, or a bevy of Islamists -- Muslim Brotherhood leader Khairat el-Shater comes to mind. But the true power behind the throne in Cairo may be a figure that few have heard of: a graying, bespectacled judge named Farouk Sultan.

Sultan is the chief justice of Egypt's Supreme Constitutional Court. According to Egypt's provisional constitution, that also makes him the head of the commission overseeing the upcoming presidential elections. And it imbues him with near unassailable powers: The constitution says the commission's decisions "will be final and carry the force of law" -- they are not subject to review or appeal by any other body.

It's a power that recently came into stark relief when Sultan's Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission (SPEC) disqualified three of the leading presidential contenders. The candidates had until today to appeal the decision -- but their petition only goes back to the body that disqualified in the first place, and must be limited to narrow issues of legal interpretation.

Sultan's background that is giving many heartburn about his newly pivotal role in Egyptian affairs. George Washington University professor Nathan Brown wrote in 2009, upon Sultan's selection as chief justice by Hosni Mubarak, that the appointment "stunned observers" because Sultan's career "brought him through some of the more sordid parts of the Egyptian judicial apparatus" -- the courts most susceptible to pressure from the Mubarak regime.

"He doesn't have the academic background [of many other Egyptian judges], and his background was entirely outside of the Constitutional Court, which is the first alarm," said Amir Marghany, an Egyptian lawyer who has previously offered legal counsel to Egypt's al-Wasat Party. "At the end of the day, he is a Mubarak appointee."

Egypt's Mubarak-era Constitutional Court was actually largely free from political influence until the early 2000s, issuing a series of rulings that ran counter to the regime's wishes. But Mubarak subsequently moved to curb the court's independence, abolishing a tradition that allowed members of the Constitutional Court to nominate a chief justice. By appointing pliable judges to the top spot, Mubarak gained control over one of the last levers of state power that had previously escaped his grasp.

As Brown put it in a recent conversation, Sultan "is basically seen to have been put on there to control the court, not issue the type of inconvenient rulings that it has in the past."

There's another wrinkle to this story: Sultan turned 70 last year, the age at which Egyptian judges are required to retire. That means he has to step down at the end of the judicial year -- shortly after the upcoming presidential elections. And as everyone knows, there are fewer people less influenced by political constraints than those already on their way out the door. Egyptian power brokers, beware.

There are a lot of ways to be disqualified from running for president in Egypt

Posted: April 16, 2012, 10:15 pm by Joshua Keating

After Barack Obama released his long-form birth certificate last year, I wrote a short explainer piece looking at constitutions around the world and what they require in terms of presidential eligibility. The topic is back in the news this week after the popular Islamist candidate Hazem Salah Abu Ismail was disqualified from Egypt's presidential election after it was revealed that his mother was an American citizen.

As it turns out, the provisional constitution that the SCAF government adopted in March 2011 is oddly specific when it comes to eligibility requirements, even banning foreign spouses:

(Article 26)
It is required for whoever is elected president of the republic to be an Egyptian who has never held another citizenship, born of two Egyptian parents who have never held another citizenship enjoying his political and civil rights, not married to a non-Egyptian, and not falling under the age of 40 years.

A lot of this is new. Egypt's previous constitution, adopted in 1971 by Anwar Sadat, makes no mentions of previous citizenships or spouses:

Article 75

The person to be elected President of the Republic should be an Egyptian citizen born to Egyptian parents and should enjoy civil and political rights.

His age must not be less than 40 Gregorian years.

The SCAF constitution also added the requirement that candidates demonstrate the support of "at least 30,000 citizens, who have the right to vote, in at least 15 provinces whereby the number of supports in any of the provinces is at least 1,000." That requirement was the grounds for disqualifying the candidacy of former intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, who apparently fell 31 signatures short.

France's Dixville Notch

Posted: April 16, 2012, 9:36 pm by Uri Friedman

The hamlet of Dixville Notch (population: 9) is famous for being the first town to vote in New Hampshire's primary and predicting the eventual Republican nominee in every presidential election since 1968 (its record in the Democratic primary and general election is spottier). France, it turns out, has something similar.

In recent days, there have been several reports on the Burgundy village of Donzy (with 1,700 residents, a pulsing metropolis compared with Dixville Notch), where electoral results have served as an uncanny bellwhether for the whipsawing national vote in every presidential race since 1981. And with the first round of voting in this year's election set to begin later this month, things are not looking good for President Nicolas Sarkozy, who won Donzy in 2007 but is currently trailing François Hollande in national polls as the French economy sputters.

Here's the Economist's report from the town:

The message I picked up from almost everybody I spoke to suggested that Mr Hollande is heading for victory. Jean-Paul Jacob, the current (independent) centre-right mayor, told me straight out: "My bet is that Donzy will vote Hollande." Not, he said, out of any great enthusiasm for the Socialist: "People find him cold; there's no fervour about him." (Indeed, there was little evidence of any political activism at all: the only poster pasted to the official campaign boards was for Philippe Poutou, an anti-capitalist candidate. Local talk is more often about "fishing and fêtes", said a local in the bar.) Rather, it was because people are disappointed with Mr Sarkozy. "His personality," said the mayor, a local notary, wryly, "doesn't leave people indifferent."

But at a local bar (almost every report makes the obligatory stop at a watering hole), Reuters' Vicky Buffery files a slightly more encouraging dispatch for Sarkozy's camp:

Questions about the election draw Gallic shrugs. One man says he'll vote but hasn't decided which way. When pushed, he struggles to remember the name of Segolene Royal, the Socialist Party candidate for whom he voted in 2007.

There's a sense among Donzy's voters that the election result could go any way, despite polls pointing to a win for Hollande.

It is hard to find people who will admit to supporting Sarkozy but several say he will have their vote.

As for Dixville Notch, its predictive power appears to be intact. Mitt Romney, who's now cruising to the GOP nomination, won the town's vote. Well, actually, his two votes put him in a tie for first place with Jon Huntsman, who has long since departed the Republican race. But why let messy details like that get in the way of the mystique.

King Juan Carlos's not-so-excellent vacation

Posted: April 16, 2012, 8:13 pm by Joshua Keating

In his classic essay Shooting an Elephant, George Orwell describes an experience he had as a colonial police officer in Burma. Under public pressure from a crowd of townspeople, he puts down an out-of-control elephant against his own wishes, describing it as the moment he "first grasped the hollowness, the futility of the white man's dominion in the East." As the people of the town debate the merits and legality of his actions, he wonders "whether any of the others grasped that I had done it solely to avoid looking a fool."

It's tempting to wonder if any similarly penetrating insights or self-reflections have come to Spanish King Juan Carlos as he lies in the hospital, having injured his hip on an elephant shooting trip in Botswana that has ignited a firestorm of controversy.

In addition to being about the least politically correct way to spend your vacation (was the baby seal-clubbing junket all booked up?) the optics of this were pretty terrible at a time when more than half of young Spaniards are out of work and Spanish banks are facing yet another downgrade. Plus, it turns out that the king -- who is Spain's official head of state -- didn't inform the government that he was leaving the country and might have used public funds in the process.

Some leftist parties are calling for the king to abdicate or hold a referendum on returning to a republic. That doesn't seem to likely at the moment, but the king may still want to stick to the beach next time if he doesnt want to his country's surging ranks of unemployed.

What happened to Obama's guayabera?

Posted: April 16, 2012, 7:43 pm by Uri Friedman

Something didn't happen at the sixth Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia over the weekend. Yes, Western hemisphere nations failed to reach consensus on including Cuba in the gathering, overhauling the region's drug policy (an expert taskforce will study the issue), or, really, much of anything. But I'm talking about something else: Barack Obama appears to have not worn a guayabera -- the light tropical dress shirt that several Latin American leaders are sporting in the summit photo-op above. And there's our president, looking decidedly stuffy in a suit jacket and (admittedly open) button-down.

"Obama, loyal to his jacket. The others, in guayaberas," read a caption to a similar picture published in Venezuela's El Universal. (The article proceeds to critique the dress of several heads of state, noting that, among the female leaders, Costa Rica's Laura Chinchilla came closest to adopting the guayabera style.)

In the run-up to the summit, the daughter of Colombian designer Edgar Gómez Estévez told local media and the Spanish news agency EFE that she was making 130 guayaberas for Obama and that they would be more daring than usual because Obama was a "distinct, special, happy, and extroverted person." As far as I can tell, the White House never confirmed that Obama would be wearing a Gómez-designed guayabera.

Nevertheless, Cuba's Fidel Castro latched on to the reports, dubbing the event the "summit of the guayaberas" and criticizing the U.S. president for planning to wear a shirt that originated in Cuba while barring Cuba from attending the summit.

To be fair to Obama, it appears that several leaders at the summit decided to forego the guayabera (and some are even wearing ties!):

So what happened with Obama's wardrobe? Either the early media reports were wrong, or Obama had a change of heart about wearing the shirt. The real question: How long before we see a campaign ad accusing Obama of taking directives -- on fashion, no less -- from Fidel?

Morning Brief: Fighting subsides in Afghan capital

Posted: April 16, 2012, 3:12 pm by Uri Friedman

Fighting subsides in Afghan capital

Top story: On Sunday, the Taliban launched coordinated attacks in Kabul and three eastern Afghan provinces, in what a spokesman for the group said was the start of the spring offensive. Thirty-six militants, eight policemen, and three civilians were killed in 18 hours of violence, according to Afghanistan's Interior Ministry. There are reports that the Taliban-allied Haqqani network may have also been involved in the assault.

On Monday, Afghan President Hamid Karzai praised the performance of his security forces and blamed the attacks on intelligence failures -- particularly on the part of NATO. The brazen strikes once again undermined confidence in NATO's plan to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan by 2014.

Also on Sunday, Taliban fighters orchestrated a massive jailbreak in a northwestern Pakistani town that freed nearly 400 prisoners, including a man who was sentenced to death for plotting to assassinate former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf.

Norway shooter goes on trial: Anders Behring Breivik, who killed 77 people in a car bombing and shooting rampage last July, appeared in an Oslo court on Monday to begin a trial that is expected to last 10 weeks. "I acknowledge the acts but I don't plead guilty as I claim I was doing it in self-defense," Breivik told the judge, adding that he did not recognize the court's authority because of the government's support for multiculturalism.

Middle East

Egypt's presidential election commission disqualified three of five leading presidential candidates on technical grounds.

The first U.N. military observers arrived in Syria to monitor a four-day-old ceasefire, amid reports of continued government shelling.

Israel blocked pro-Palestinian activists from traveling to Bethlehem in the West Bank.

Asia

The Philippines and the United States have begun joint military exercises in the South China Sea.

Australia has decided to ease sanctions against Myanmar.

In his first public speech, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un emphasized his commitment to strengthening the military.

Europe

The yield on Spain's 10-year bonds rose above six percent, sparking renewed concerns about the need for a bailout.

Pope Benedict XVI celebrated his 85th birthday at the Vatican.

King Juan Carlos of Spain underwent hip surgery following a hunting trip in Botswana that has been criticized by politicians.

Americas

The Summit of the Americas in Colombia concluded without a consensus statement and with divisions over whether to include Cuba in the next gathering, as a scandal surfaced involving the Secret Service.

Peruvian troops freed gas workers kidnapped by Shining Path rebels.

The Spanish oil company Repsol is appealing to Argentine officials for talks over concerns that its subsidiary in Argentina could be nationalized.

Africa

Coup leaders in Guinea-Bissau say they will establish an interim government with opposition parties, and have accepted an offer by East Timor's outgoing president to act as a mediator.

Sudanese warplanes bombed a U.N. peacekeeping base in South Sudan.

Gunmen reportedly abducted a Swiss woman in the Malian city of Timbuktu.

Massoud Hossaini/AFP/Getty Images

A lean to the far right in Greece?

Posted: April 13, 2012, 10:00 pm by Allison Good

With Greece's national parliamentary election set for May 6, the crisis-ridden country may have a new threat to worry about: the extremist fringe vote. Due to popular frustration with the country's current economic situation, it is "thought likely" that left- and right-wing political fringe parties will make gains among voters at the expense of mainstream political parties like the conservative New Democracy party and the socialist Pasok party.

But as the New York Times reported yesterday, the Greek ultranationalist group Golden Dawn, a neo-Nazi group that has broadened its appeal by "capitalizing on fears that illegal immigration has grown out of control at a time when the economy is bleeding jobs," may very well receive more than the 3 percent of votes needed to enter Parliament. This is bad news for Greek society, which University of Athens political scientist Nicos Demertzis calls a "a laboratory of extreme-right-wing evolution." Though no Golden Party member has ever held national office, party leader Nikos Michaloliakos was elected">[www.nytimes.com] to the Athens City Council in 2010.

Golden Dawn joins the ranks of dozens of nationalist-populist fringe parties all over Europe whose enflamed euroskeptic reactions to the "cuts to wages and pensions imposed in order to secure aid from the EU and the IMF" have resulted in political shakeups. The Dutch Party for Freedom (PVV) , led by Geert Wilders, won 24 of the 150 parliamentary seats in the 2010 general election, and came in second in the Netherlands in the 2009 European Parliament elections.

Golden Dawn also espouses a particularly anti-German sentiment:

''It's right to hate Germany, because it is still the leader of the banksters and the European Union,'' Mr. Michaloliakos, the group's leader, said, using a derogatory term for bankers.

Of course, Golden Dawn is still transitioning from a street-fighting group into a political party, but it remains to be seen whether it can become a well-oiled machine like France's National Front, whose leader, Marine Le Pen, is still campaigning for the presidency. Even so, its increasing popularity is evidence of a dangerous trend that only promises to worsen. At least we have Greek left-wing anarchist groups like the Cosnpiracy of Fire Nuclei, Nikola Tesla Commandos, and Immediate Intervention Hood-wearers to keep us properly entertained.

The Election 2012 Weekly Report: Sayonara Santo

Posted: April 13, 2012, 9:18 pm by Joshua Keating

Santorum drops out

Rick Santorum, the last credible rival for the GOP nomination, dropped out of the race on Wednesday leaving a clear path for front-runner and presumptive nominee Mitt Romney. "This game is a long, long, long way from over," Santorum told supporters. "We are going to continue to go out there and fight to make sure that we defeat President Barack Obama." Notably, Santorum did not mention Romney in his concession.

With 651 delegates, Romney may have the contest all wrapped up, but nobody appears to have told Newt Gingrich, who still vows to stay in the race until Romney collects the 1,144 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. "I want to do what I do best, which is talk about big solutions and big approaches," Gingrich told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "I want to keep campaigning." But $4.5 million in debt, Gingrich's campaign suffered a further indignity this week when its $500 check for the filing fee to appear on the Utah primary ballot bounced.

North Korea

On Thursday night (EDT), North Korea attempted -- but failed -- in an attempt to launch a satellite into orbit. Though the botched launch of the long-range missile, which broke apart before entering orbit, was a humiliation for North Korea's young leader Kim Jong Un, it also essentially scuttled a year of diplomatic outreach by the Obama administration, which culminated in a now-nullified deal on Feb. 29 under which Pyongyang agreed to suspend its uranium enrichment program in exchange for food aid.

The Romney campaign was quick to respond with a statement saying that the launch demonstrated the "incompetence" and weakness of the Obama administration's foreign policy. "Instead of approaching Pyongyang from a position of strength, President Obama sought to appease the regime with a food-aid deal that proved to be as naive as it was short-lived," he said.

A cold shoulder to Brazil

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff was in Washington on Monday for a White House meeting with Barack Obama. But in contrast to her fellow BRICS leaders Hu Jintao and Manmohan Singh, arguably the second most powerful leader in the Western hemisphere got only a 2-hour meeting with the president on a day dominated by the White House lawn Easter Egg roll. The Brazilian government has repeatedly criticized Washington for monetary and interest rate policies that they say unfairly advantage U.S. exports and for visa requirements for Brazilian travelers that take up to 35 days to process.

The two leaders will meet again this weekend at the Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia.

Afghan war

Public support for the war in Afghanistan has fallen to an all-time low according to a new Washington Post-ABC poll, with only 30 percent of respondents saying it has been worth the effort and expenditure. For the first time, a majority of Republicans do not approve of the war. As to the president's leadership, 48 percent of those polled approve of Obama's handling of the war, while 43 percent disapprove. In a sign of an accelerated effort to transfer responsibility to Afghan forces, the United States agreed this week to hand over control of the controversial nighttime raids that were once seen as critical to winning the war.

Numbers game

Romney may have a steep hill to climb if he aims to win the foreign-policy fight in the campaign. New polling shows that voters trust Obama over the GOP frontrunner by a 15 percent margin. Writing for Foreign Policy, Washington Post polling analyst Scott Clement notes that "Romney's weakness on foreign policy doesn't appear to result from Obama's strengths. Americans give Obama middling ratings on international affairs overall: 47 percent approve while 44 percent disapprove."

After the bruising primary, Romney appears to have sketched out a decidedly hawkish platform on foreign policy. Moving into the general election, with Americans increasingly skeptical of military action abroad, it remains to be seen whether the candidate will moderate his views to appear to undecided voters.

What to watch for:

Latin American summits are typically a good showcase for some outlandish behavior. Obama's opponents will likely be on the lookout to see how the president interacts with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. He was criticized for embracing the leftist leader in 2009.

The latest from Foreign Policy:

Aaron David Miller says the notion that presidents have more "flexibility" to act in their second terms is a myth.

Will Imboden gives six reasons we should hope Obama's not more flexible.

Daniel Drezner questions Romney's seriousness on foreign policy.

Michael A. Cohen looks at who's leading on the big international issues that will define the contest between Romney and Obama.

Joshua E. Keating looks back at the highlights of the Santorum campaign.

Morning Brief: World reacts to North Korean rocket launch

Posted: April 13, 2012, 3:04 pm by Uri Friedman

World reacts to North Korean rocket launch

Top story: North Korea launched a rocket on Friday despite warnings by the United States and its allies, who worry that Pyongyang is testing technology for a long-range missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead. But in a blow to North Korea's young leader, Kim Jong Un, the rocket reportedly disintegrated shortly after launching. After hours of silence, North Korea's state-run media confirmed that the rocket "failed to enter its preset orbit."

International reaction has been swift. American, Japanese, and South Korean officials condemned the launch, and the United States reiterated its plan to suspend roughly $200 million in promised food aid to North Korea. Russia's foreign minister said the launch violated U.N. Security Council sanctions but added that, after talks with his Chinese and Indian counterparts, Russia opposed new sanctions on North Korea. The Security Council will meet on Friday to discuss the launch.

Reuters, meanwhile, is highlighting concerns that North Korea could undertake a third nuclear test to demonstrate its military strength after this week's high-profile failure.

Syria: A ceasefire negotiated by envoy Kofi Annan appears to be holding for a second day, though activists have reported scattered clashes and the presence of tanks, armed checkpoints, and rooftop snipers. The U.N. Security Council is set to vote on a resolution that would dispatch monitors to Syria to help enforce the peace plan.

Africa

Soldiers in Guinea-Bissau have seized control of parts of the capital in an apparent coup attempt.

The U.N. Security Council called for an end to fighting on Sudan's southern border.

Mali's interim ruler threatened "total war" against Tuareg rebels in the north.

Asia

David Cameron has become the first British prime minister to visit Myanmar.

The Pakistani parliament presented the United States with a list of demands, including an end to CIA drone strikes.

The Chinese economy grew by an annual rate of 8.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012 -- its slowest pace in nearly three years.

Americas

Partners in Health and Gheskio began administering cholera vaccines in Haiti, where the disease has killed more than 7,000 people.

Trade, energy, and drug trafficking will likely dominate the conversation at this weekend's Summit of the Americas in Colombia.

The Peruvian government refused to negotiate with Shining Path rebels who recently kidnapped 42 gas workers.

Middle East

Formula 1's governing body has confirmed that the controversial Bahrain Grand Prix will take place on April 22.

Ahmed Ben Bella, the first president of Algeria after it gained independence from France, died at the age of 95.

The Egyptian parliament passed a law prohibiting former President Hosni Mubarak's senior officials from running for president, though the ruling military council must still approve it.

Europe

The trial of four men accused of plotting an attack on a newspaper that published cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad has begun in Denmark.

The first suspect in a Spanish investigation into the abduction of newborns appeared in court.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy admitted that he did not visit Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant, as he had indicated in a campaign speech.

Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty Images

Kim Jong Un tries to launch his rocket

Posted: April 12, 2012, 3:30 am by Isaac Stone Fish

North Korea, the world's poorest, most maddeningly opaque nuclear power, has just launched a long-range rocket. Or at least it was supposed to be a long-range rocket.

Both the Pentagon and the South Korean defense ministry have confirmed that the rocket was launched at 7:39am Seoul time, or 6:49pm Washington, D.C. time; a spokesman for the South Korean defense ministry said that a few minutes after the launch the rocket had broken up and crashed into the sea. North Korea hasn't commented yet, either through official channels or the usually feisty (and congratulatory) Korean Central News Agency of the DPRK.

North Korea announced the plan for the satellite launch, which it claimed was for peaceful purposes, on March 16, less than three weeks after it had signed a deal with the United States in which it promised to stop nuclear and long-range missile tests. Even U.S. officials and long-term North Korea watchers used to dealing with a mercurial Pyongyang were surprised by the speed at which the country reneged on the agreement.

The fear is that, were Pyongyang successful in actually launching a long-range missile, North Korea could eventually load a nuclear warhead on a rocket and send it as far as Alaska or Hawaii. Seoul, the South Korean capital of over ten million people which is only dozens of miles from the DMZ, has been well within striking range of North Korea's artillery for decades.

Welcome to IKEAville

Posted: April 12, 2012, 9:30 pm by Alessandra N Ram

Swedish furniture giant IKEA has begun work on a 26-acre self-contained neighborhood in Stratford, East London - just in time for the 2012 Olympics.

The town will be called Strand East and will contain 1,200 new homes, 480,000 square feet of office space, and a 350 bedroom hotel. The development's canal side location -- nicknamed "mini Venice" -- will feature a water-taxi service and floating cocktail bar. It is the first major development for LandProp, which owns the intellectual assets of the furniture company. The development group already operates in Holland, Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia, according to the Daily Globe and Mail.

The announcement comes shortly after the British government's agreement last month to slim down urban planning laws in order to encourage more sustainable projects, like this one. In what was a bitter dispute with countryside campaigners, the reforms represent a huge step along the way to reviving Britain's struggling rural economy.

Andrew Cobden, a spokesman for the project, also described a 40-meter illuminated tower that will be visible across the East London skyline - meant to emulate the Olympic torch. Like all things IKEA, the tower will be made from relatively "simple" materials, a wooden lattice of 72 diagonal laths, 16 horizontal steel rings, and held together by 32,000 trusty steel bolts.

The development will accommodate residents at a range of income levels. IKEA's first pre-fabricated home debuted last month in Portland, at an all-inclusive price of just $86,000. You might need more than a tiny Allen wrench to build this one.

Chinese moviegoers won't get to see Kate Winslet's breasts in 3-D

Posted: April 12, 2012, 9:06 pm by Joshua Keating

The 3-D rerelease of James Cameron's Titanic may be breaking box office records in China, but some viewers are upset that one particular scene -- you know the one! -- didn't make it past the censors:

Some were upset about missing out on the romantic but controversial scenes in which Kate Winslet posed nude for sketches. Internet forums and microblogging sites were abuzz with criticism of the censorship.

"I've been waiting almost 15 years, and not for the 3D icebergs," said a post.

Given the hefty $24 ticket price, you can understand the guy's frustration. The official explanation from China's State Administration of Radio, Film, and Television didn't exactly help:

Considering the vivid 3D effects, we fear that viewers may reach out their hands for a touch and thus interrupt other people's viewing. To avoid potential conflicts between viewers and out of consideration of building a harmonious ethical social environment, we've decided to cut off the nudity scenes.

Good news for DVD bootleggers, I guess.

Will Israel and Lebanon's new naval partnership last?

Posted: April 12, 2012, 9:00 pm by Allison Good

Although the Arab Spring hasn't won Israel many friends in the Middle East, Haaretz reported yesterday that its navy "recently strengthened its cooperation with the Lebanese Navy in the Mediterranean." The partnership, Israel hopes, will prevent provocations in the form of possible pro-Palestinian flotillas to Gaza on May 15, or Nakba Day, which commemorates "the displacement of Palestinians following the establishment of Israel in 1948, and on Naksa Day, which takes place in June and commemorates the displacement of Palestinians after the 1967 war."

It's no surprise that Israel would turn to regional multilateralism in order to avoid a repeat of the Gaza flotilla incident of 2010. According to the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, "pro-Palestinian activists from Sweden [have] announced their intent to organize another Gaza flotilla this year, saying they have already bought the ship."

Whether this friendly strategic cooperation will last, though, is an entirely different question. Israel and Lebanon may soon be engaged in nasty disputes over natural gas fields in the Levant Basin, which as Robin M. Mills reported for FP last year "spans not only Israel's offshore but also that of Lebanon, Cyprus, and Syria." In 2009, U.S. exploration company Noble Energy found Tamar, a deepwater field that holds 8.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas. Noble discovered Leviathan, which has an aerial area of 125 square miles and contains a potential 20 Tcf, in early 2010. As Mills noted, the U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the entire basin "could contain 120 Tcf of gas, equivalent to almost half of U.S. reserves."

With Tamar set to come online in April 2013, and Leviathan expected to begin production by 2016, what is for now just a dispute over maritime borders could soon turn into a regional conflict over natural gas.

Canada may launch government-backed bitcoin competitor

Posted: April 12, 2012, 8:52 pm by Joshua Keating

Writing last year on the peer-to-peer digital currency Bitcoin, I noted that while "the disruptive power of Bitcoin on banks and central governments has surely been overstated, but these institutions might be better served to take its emergence as a warning rather than a reassurance: They may not be the only game in town forever."

It seems that at least one country is taking the Bitcoin phenomenon seriously: Canada. The Canadian mint is launching research and development on its own "virtual currency" with the tasty-sounding name MintChip. Jesse Brown of MacLeans explains:

Like BitCoin, it’s as anonymous as cash, leaving no electronic record of who paid what to who. Unlike BitCoin, it’s backed by a central authority, which is bad news for the anarcho-crypto Illuminati-fearing libertarian crowd, but good news for people who actually use it. Will it be hacked? Probably. But a currency guaranteed by a wealthy and stable mint can sustain a certain amount of fraud without collapsing. The Royal Canadian Mint has launched an app challenge to kickstart MintChip.

I suspect that a lot of potential users -- not just "the anarcho-crypto Illuminati-fearing libertarian crowd" -- are going to wonder just how anonymous a government-backed electronic payment method will be. I'd imagine there will be at least some safeguards to prevent the underground drug markets that have given Bitcoin a bad name.

Whatever happens, it should be an interesting experiment to watch. This is been a month of currency innovation for Canada, which announced it was eliminating the penny last week. It still has a ways to go to catch up with increasingly-cashless Sweden though.

Update: I neglected to mention the glow-in-the-dark dinosaur coin. The hits just keep coming from those wild and crazy guys at the Canadian Mint.

Guess who else got their hands on some Libyan weapons?

Posted: April 12, 2012, 8:31 pm by Joshua Keating

Christian Caryl wrote yesterday on the possibility that the collapse of Muammar al-Qaddafi's regime in Libya -- and the flood of suddenly available weaponry that resulted -- may be at the root of Mali's current crisis. Not surprisingly, as Reuters reports today, the Tuareg rebels may not be the only armed group in North Africa that has come into a post-Qaddafi weapons windfall:

"We found that Libyan weapons are being sold in what is the world's biggest black market for illegal gun smugglers, and Somali pirates are among those buying from sellers in Sierra Leone, Liberia and other countries," said Judith van der Merwe, of the Algiers-based African Centre for the Study and Research on Terrorism.

"We believe our information is credible and know that some of the pirates have acquired ship mines, as well as Stinger and other shoulder-held missile launchers," Van der Merwe told Reuters on the sidelines of an Indian Ocean naval conference. [...] The information was gathered from interviews with gun smugglers, pirates and other sources, said Van der Merwe.

Van der Merwe also notes that while the total number of pirates attacks seem to be down this year, the individual ransoms paid are increasing. Ship mines and missile launchers would seem to be a substantial upgrade for the pirate arsenal.

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