MentalGator

Items by Uri Friedman

FP Passport - blogging on global news, politics, economics, and ideas

• Morning Brief: Ratko Mladic's war crimes trial begins

  Posted: May 16, 2012, 3:11 pm by Uri Friedman

  Ratko Mladic's war crimes trial begins

  Top news: Ratko Mladic, the former Bosnian Serb leader who was captured last May after more than 15 years on the run, appeared in a courtroom in The Hague on Wednesday to begin his trial for war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity in connection with the Bosnian war in the 1990s.

  In outlining its case against Mladic, the prosecution accused the former military commander of "realizing through military might the criminal goals of ethnically cleansing much of Bosnia" by orchestrating the slaughter of 8,000 unarmed Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica and laying siege to Sarajevo for 44 months, a period in which more than 10,000 people died. 

  Mladic, for his part, has refused to enter a formal plea, but the court has entered a not guilty plea on his behalf. On Wednesday, the 70-year-old general appeared to taunt Srebrenica survivors, making eye contact with a Muslim woman in the audience and running a hand across his throat in a gesture that prompted the judge to call a brief recess.

  Greece: Greek President Karolos Papoulias appointed a judge to head a caretaker government until a new round of elections can be held on June 17, as the country's failure to form a coalition government roils markets and Greeks began withdrawing funds from banks.  

  Middle East

  • A convoy of U.N. monitors got caught in clashes between protesters and Syrian forces in Idlib province and stayed with members of the opposition Free Syrian Army overnight.

  • The Yemeni military killed at least 18 people in airstrikes against al Qaeda as part of a larger offensive against militants in southern Yemen.

  • The Libyan Islamist leader Abdel Hakim Belhadj resigned from the military to run in elections next month.

  Americas

  • Gen. James Cartwright, a former commander of U.S. nuclear forces, called for a steep reduction in the U.S. nuclear arsenal.

  • A bombing in the Colombian capital killed at least two people, in what appeared to be an assassination attempt on a former government minister. 

  • The Mexican novelist Carlos Fuentes died at age 83.

  Europe

  • Following his inauguration, French President Francois Hollande met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and named Jean-Marc Ayrault as his prime minister.

  • The European Union announced new regulations for banks.

  • Russian police cleared a campsite occupied by anti-government protesters in Moscow.

  Asia

  • NATO invited Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari to its upcoming summit in Chicago. 

  • Investigators discovered the black box from a Russian passenger jet that crashed in Indonesia last week.  

  • The Chinese dissident Chen Guangcheng called into a second U.S. congressional hearing and spoke of local Chinese authorities harassing his family. 

  Africa

  • Ahead of his sentencing, former Liberian President Charles Taylor accused the prosecution in his war crimes trial at the Hague of paying its witnesses.

  • The United Nations estimated that more than half the population in South Sudan is facing food shortages. 

  • Amnesty International accused Tuareg rebels in northern Mali of recruiting child soldiers and committing rape and murder.

  
  

  Toussaint Kluiters/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: Greek president struggles to form unity government

  Posted: May 14, 2012, 3:24 pm by Uri Friedman

  Greek president struggles to form unity government

  Top news: After several failed attempts by Greece's political parties to form a coalition government following elections last week, Greek President Karolos Papoulias invited leaders to a final round of talks on Monday in an effort to avoid new elections.

  But the chances of success appear slim, as the head of the radical leftist Syriza party refused to attend the negotiations and the moderate Democratic Left party said it would not be part of any unity deal that didn't include Syriza. European finance ministers are expected to discuss the political impasse when they meet in Brussels on Monday.

  Many are worried that fresh voting in Greece -- which would likely take place in mid-June -- will further empower parties such as Syriza that oppose the terms of the country's bailout deal. This, in turn, could precipitate a Greek default and exit from the eurozone. These concerns are contributing to instability in financial markets.

  Syria: Activists are reporting that at least 30 people -- including 23 Syrian soldiers -- died in overnight fighting in the central city of Rastan, a day after sectarian clashes fueled by the Syrian conflict erupted in the Lebanese city of Tripoli. On Monday, the European Union imposed a new round of sanctions on Syria in response to the ongoing violence. 

  Europe

  • Tens of thousands of Spaniards protested against government austerity measures in roughly 80 Spanish cities. 

  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats lost elections in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia.

  • A group of prominent Russian writers led protesters in a march through Moscow.

  Asia

  • A gunman killed Mullah Arsala Rahmani, a former Taliban minister and member of Afghanistan's High Peace Council.

  • A Mongolian court granted bail to former President Nambaryn Enkhbayar, who is engaged in a hunger strike over his detention on corruption charges.

  • Fifteen people died in a plane crash in Nepal.

  Middle East

  • Yemen's new president reaffirmed his commitment to pursuing terrorists during a meeting with U.S. counterterrorism official John Brennan, as raids against militants continue in southern Yemen. 

  • Human Rights Watch urged NATO to investigate a bombing in Libya last year that killed 72 civilians, according to the group.  

  • Gulf leaders are meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss the idea of forming a union.

  Africa

  • Uganda captured a senior commander in Joseph Kony's Lord's Resistance Army.

  • South Sudanese refugees in Sudan have begun returning to Juba.

  • Nigerian police arrested a Boko Haram commander in the northern city of Kano.

  Americas

  • Mexican authorities discovered 49 mutilated bodies along a highway near Monterrey.  

  • Three top traders at JPMorgan Chase will resign after the bank posted a $2 billion loss last week.

  • Colombia's FARC rebels promised to release the French journalist Romeo Langlois. 

  
  

  Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: Egypt holds first presidential debate

  Posted: May 11, 2012, 3:17 pm by Uri Friedman

  Egypt holds first presidential debate

  Top news: Just two weeks before the first round of voting in the country's presidential election, Egypt held the Arab world's first televised presidential debate on Thursday night. The four-hour event featured Amr Moussa, a former Arab League chief, and Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a former member of the Muslim Brotherhood.

  The two top candidates discussed the economy, security, and the role Islamic law should play in government, and criticized each other's backgrounds. Moussa highlighted the oath of loyalty that Aboul Fotouh once swore to the chairman of the Brotherhood, while Aboul Fotouh noted that Moussa had long served as a diplomat under Hosni Mubarak. "Those who take part in creating the problem couldn't be part of the solution," he declared.

  Friday marked the first day that Egyptians abroad can start voting in the presidential election. 

  Greece: Evangelos Venizelos, the leader of Greece's main socialist party, is engaged in a last-ditch effort to form a coalition government. If he fails, all parties will have one final chance to strike a unity deal before new elections, which would likely benefit a radical leftist party that opposes the country's bailout, are called. 

  Middle East

  • The head of the opposition Syrian National Council blamed a double bombing in Damascus on al Qaeda forces linked to the Syrian regime.

  • Early results from Algeria's legislative elections indicate a strong showing by the ruling National Liberation Front and an Islamist alliance.

  • The spy who helped foil a plot to bomb a U.S.-bound airliner is reportedly a British national, and British intelligence may have helped recruit him.

  Asia

  • An attacker in an Afghan Army uniform killed a NATO soldier in eastern Afghanistan. 

  • Protesters gathered at the Chinese embassy in Manila as a dispute between China and the Philippines over an island in the South China Sea escalated.

  • Rescuers found no evidence of survivors in the wreckage of a new Russian passenger jet that crashed in Indonesia.

  Europe

  • The European Commission predicted that the eurozone economy will contract this year and warned that Spain could miss its deficit targets.

  • Rebekah Brooks, the former chief executive of News International, testified before a British inquiry into press ethics. 

  • Britain is seeking to scale back a provision of the impending EU oil embargo on Iran.

  Americas

  • JPMorgan Chase disclosed a $2 billion trading loss.

  • Peru's interior and defense ministers resigned over a botched operation against Shining Path rebels. 

  • Argentina passed a landmark gender rights law that will make it easier for people to change their legal and physical gender identity.

  Africa

  • Somali pirates hijacked a Greek-owned oil tanker off the coast of Oman.

  • More than 40 people were injured in clashes between police and protesters in Guinea.

  • West African mediators met with leaders in Guinea-Bissau to negotiate a return to civilian rule.

  
  

  Gianluigi Guercia/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: Prospects for Greek coalition government dim

  Posted: May 9, 2012, 3:37 pm by Uri Friedman

  Prospects for Greek coalition government dim

  Top news: Leftist leader Alexis Tsipras, whose party finished second in Greece's elections on Sunday, will spend Wednesday meeting with officials from the country's two major parties -- PASOK and New Democracy -- as part of his effort to form a coalition government.

  But such a deal is highly unlikely since Tsipras has called for nullifying the terms of Greece's bailout by the European Union and International Monetary Fund, which both PASOK and New Democracy support, albeit with reservations. New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras, who failed to broker a solution to Greece's political impasse on Monday, has warned that pulling out of Greece's bailout commitments could "lead to immediate internal collapse and international bankruptcy, with the inevitable exit from Europe." 

  If Tsipras doesn't secure an agreement, new elections could be held within weeks. In the meantime, the political tumult in Greece is roiling markets.

  Foiled bomb plot: New reports suggest that the suicide bomber tasked with attacking a U.S.-bound airplane by an al Qaeda affiliate in Yemen was actually a Saudi intelligence agent who was cooperating with the CIA. American officials have expressed concern that the leaked details about the plot could undermine U.S. efforts to partner with foreign intelligence services.

  Middle East

  • An explosion struck a Syrian military vehicle that was escorting a convoy of U.N. observers, a day after envoy Kofi Annan warned of "serious violations" of the ceasefire in Syria. 

  • In the first test of Israel's new governing coalition, religious and secular parties clashed over draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews.

  • Armed men attacked the offices of Libya's interim prime minister in an apparent response to not receiving payment for fighting Muammar al-Qaddafi's forces.  

  Europe

  • Jailed Ukrainian opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko was transferred to a hospital.

  • The Russian parliament confirmed Dmitry Medvedev as prime minister, though a third of parliamentarians voted against the nomination.

  • Serbia's Socialists and Democratic Party formed a governing coalition and agreed to support President Boris Tadic in an upcoming runoff election.

  Asia

  • The Taliban killed five Afghan education officials in an ambush.

  • Dissident Chen Guangcheng said Chinese officials have begun helping him with his application to study in the United States.

  • An Iranian delegation struck trade deals with India shortly after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pressed India to scale back commercial relations with Iran.

  Americas

  • The U.S. Treasury Department added two sons of Mexican drug lord Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman to its drug kingpin blacklist.

  • The Colombian government refused to negotiate with FARC rebels regarding the release of a French journalist.

  • Jamaica's two major political parties are investigating whether they received money from a convicted fraudster.

  Africa

  • The South Sudanese military accused Sudan of renewing its airstrikes against the South.

  • A South African judge ruled that the country's police and prosecutors must investigate Zimbabwean officials over torture charges.

  • An Islamist group that took seven Algerian diplomats hostage in Mali issued a 30-day ultimatum to Algiers.

  
  

  Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: Hollande defeats Sarkozy in French presidential election

  Posted: May 7, 2012, 3:34 pm by Uri Friedman

  Hollande defeats Sarkozy in French presidential election

  Top story: Francois Hollande beat French President Nicolas Sarkozy with just over 51 percent of the vote in a runoff election on Sunday, becoming the first Socialist to win the presidency since Francois Mitterrand left office in 1995. Sarkozy, the first French president since 1981 to not win a second term, will officially transfer power to Hollande on May 15.

  "Europe is watching us, austerity can no longer be the only option," Hollande declared in a victory speech. The president-elect's emphasis on expanding a European Union fiscal compact to include pro-growth measures resonated with French voters, and news reports are casting Sarkozy as the latest European leader to be felled by popular anger over the handling of Europe's debt crisis.

  But Hollande's position also puts him at odds with proponents of austerity such as Germany's Angela Merkel -- who congratulated Hollande but warned that the EU treaty was "not up for grabs" -- and raises concerns about how the euro crisis will be resolved. The results of the French election have already rattled financial markets.       

  Greek election: In parliamentary elections on Sunday, voters in Greece abandoned the country's two major parties in an implicit rejection of the harsh terms of bailouts by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. The center-right New Democracy party, which attracted the largest percentage of the vote, will now try to form a unity government. 

  Europe

  • Vladimir Putin was inaugurated as president of Russia a day after Russian police clashed with anti-government protesters in Moscow.

  • The presidential candidates for Serbia's ruling Democratic Party and the Serbian Progressive Party will most likely square off again in a runoff vote.

  • Voters in the German state of Schleswig-Holstein toppled their center-right coalition government.  

  Middle East

  • Al Qaeda militants attacked a Yemeni army base after the Yemeni government said a Qaeda militant linked to the bombing of the USS Cole was killed in an airstrike.

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for early elections, which may now take place in September.

  • Syria is holding parliamentary elections, which the government has characterized as a sign of its commitment to reform.

  Asia

  • A video posted on Islamist websites appeared to show U.S. hostage Warren Weinstein urging President Barack Obama to meet the demands of his captors in Pakistan.

  • The United States is reportedly releasing high-level detainees in Afghanistan as part of negotiations with insurgent groups. 

  • Chinese dissident Chen Guangcheng said he doesn't know when he'll be permitted to leave China for the United States, as Chinese officials continued to criticize Washington's role in Chen's case.

  Americas

  • The lawyers for five men charged with plotting the Sept. 11 attacks complained about the military tribunal process after a dramatic arraignment.

  • Colombia's FARC rebels confirmed that they're holding a French journalist as a "prisoner of war" and suggested that he may be released soon.

  • Mexico's presidential candidates participated in their first televised debate.

  Africa

  • The Democratic Republic of Congo claimed it had regained control of territory seized by warlord Bosco "Terminator" Ntaganda. 

  • Militants destroyed the tomb of a Muslim saint in the Malian town of Timbuktu.

  • The African Union repeated its call for Mali's military junta to cede power.

  
  

  Joel Saget/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: China says Chen Guangcheng could apply to study abroad

  Posted: May 4, 2012, 3:28 pm by Uri Friedman

  China says Chen Guangcheng could apply to study abroad

  Top story: In what could be a breakthrough in the case of Chen Guangcheng -- the Chinese dissident who escaped house arrest and spent six days at the U.S. embassy in Beijing -- China's Foreign Ministry suggested on Friday that the activist could study outside China. Chen "can apply through normal channels to the relevant departments in accordance with the law, just like any other Chinese citizen," a ministry spokesman explained.  

  The announcement came after Chen called into a U.S. congressional hearing on Thursday and later stated that while he didn't intend on seeking political asylum in the United States, he was interested in spending time there and potentially attending New York University.

  But the diplomatic crisis, which has overshadowed high-level talks between China and the United States in Beijing, may not be over just yet. China's top diplomat informed U.S. officials on Friday that human rights should not be "used as an excuse to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries," and a Chinese human rights lawyer tells Reuters that Chinese authorities could make it difficult for Chen to study abroad by delaying his paperwork. "We can't be 100 percent optimistic," the lawyer noted.    

  British elections: Early results from local English and Welsh elections suggest that the opposition Labour party could win 38 percent of the national vote. British Prime Minister David Cameron said the government would not alter its economic policies in light of Labour's strong performance. 

  Middle East

  • At least four students reportedly died when Syrian security forces cracked down on a student demonstration at Aleppo University. 

  • Iran is holding a second round of parliamentary elections.

  • Israel freed Hagai Amir, the brother of the man who killed Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.

  Europe

  • A twin bombing at a police station in Russia's North Caucasus region killed at least 13 people.

  • French President Nicolas Sarkozy is trailing his Socialist challenger Francois Hollande by roughly six percent in polls in the last day of campaigning for the country's presidential election. 

  • Cardinal Sean Brady, the head of the Catholic Church in Ireland, is facing calls to resign over his alleged failure to report clerical sexual abuse.

  Asia

  • A suicide bomber killed at least 20 people in an assault on a police checkpoint in northwest Pakistan.

  • Japan will shut down its last functional nuclear reactor on Saturday. 

  • Recent clashes between government troops and Kachin rebels in Myanmar have reportedly left more than 30 people dead.

  Africa

  • Both Sudan and South Sudan agreed to a U.N. roadmap for ending hostilities and restarting negotiations, though tensions between the two sides remain high.

  • Africa received a greater share of global foreign direct investment in 2011 than ever before but is still considered the "least attractive" destination for FDI, according to a new survey.

  • Prosecutors are requesting that former Liberian President Charles Taylor, who was recently convicted of war crimes in The Hague, be given an 80-year sentence. 

  Americas

  • Argentina's Congress approved the nationalization of the Spanish-controlled oil company YPF.

  • Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the alleged mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, will appear before a military tribunal in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba on Saturday. 

  • Three photojournalists were found dead in the eastern Mexican state of Veracruz shortly after a crime reporter was murdered in the same region.

  
  

  U.S. Embassy Beijing Press via Getty Images

• Morning Brief: Chinese dissident leaves U.S. embassy

  Posted: May 2, 2012, 3:19 pm by Uri Friedman

  Chinese dissident leaves U.S. embassy

  Top story: The blind Chinese human rights lawyer Chen Guangcheng, whose whereabouts have been a mystery since he escaped house arrest last week, left the U.S. embassy in Beijing on Wednesday and headed to a check-up at a hospital in the Chinese capital before reuniting with his family.

  Xinhua, China's official news agency, reported that Chen left the embassy "of his own volition" after a six-day stay, while American officials tell the New York Times that the activist emerged only after he received assurances from the Chinese government that he would remain safe if he stayed in his country -- a deal that Reuters is calling "unprecedented."

  U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who is in Beijing for previously scheduled talks with Chinese officials, said she spoke with Chen on Wednesday and that the dissident's understanding with the Chinese government included "the opportunity to pursue higher education in a safe environment."

  The Chinese Foreign Ministry, for its part, demanded an apology from the United States for taking Chen into its embassy.   

  Afghanistan: President Barack Obama pledged to end the war in Afghanistan and signed a strategic partnership agreement with Afghan President Hamid Karzai during an unannounced visit to Kabul on Tuesday. Less than two hours after Obama left the country, however, a suicide bomber attacked a compound housing foreigners in the Afghan capital, killing seven Afghans. 

  Middle East

  • Unidentified attackers clashed with mostly Islamist protesters in the Egyptian capital, leaving at least nine people dead.

  • Human Rights Watch accused the Syrian government of committing war crimes in Idlib province during ceasefire negotiations.

  • The Israeli military ended its investigation into the 2009 shelling of a house in the Gaza Strip that killed 21 members of an extended Palestinian family.

  Asia

  • Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi was sworn in as a member of Myanmar's new parliament.

  • Rescuers in India continued to search for bodies after a ferry accident that killed at least 100 people. 

  • South Korean officials accused North Korea of disrupting GPS navigation in the country.

  Europe

  • The unemployment rate in the eurozone rose to 10.9 percent in March -- the highest level since the creation of the euro in 1999.

  • The British Sky Broadcasting Group defended its record amid criticism of News Corporation, which owns 39 percent of BSkyB.

  • The credit rating agency Standard & Poor's upgraded Greek debt from "selective default."

  Africa

  • Junta leaders in Mali said that they had defeated a counter-coup and that a transition to civilian rule was still on track. 

  • A suicide attack in central Somalia killed seven people, including two lawmakers.

  • The president of Chad called for a regional force to crack down on the Nigerian militant group Boko Haram.

  Americas

  • The Bosnian-born U.S. citizen Adis Medunjanin was convicted of plotting suicide bombings of New York subways.  

  • Bolivian President Evo Morales nationalized a subsidiary of the Spanish power company REE. 

  • A woman claiming to be a member of the FARC said the Colombian rebel group had captured a French journalist as a prisoner of war.

  
  

  Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: United States stays quiet on Chinese dissident's whereabouts

  Posted: April 30, 2012, 3:35 pm by Uri Friedman

  United States stays quiet on Chinese dissident's whereabouts

  Top story: The Obama administration has yet to comment on mounting speculation that Chinese rights activist Chen Guangcheng is at the U.S. embassy in Beijing (pictured above), but it has reportedly dispatched State Department official Kurt Campbell to meet with Chinese officials about Chen's fate. The blind lawyer escaped from house arrest last week.

  The talks come ahead of scheduled visits to China by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner later this week. "This is the greatest test in bilateral relations in years, probably going back to '89," former CIA analyst Christopher K. Johnson tells the New York Times, in reference to the suppression of protests in Tiananmen Square.

  Chinese authorities, meanwhile, are furiously blocking web searches of terms related to Chen's escape -- ranging from "Shawshank" (a reference to an American prison-break film) to "UA898" (a United Airlines flight from Beijing to Washington).

  Syria: Two suicide bombings in the Syrian city of Idlib on Monday killed at least eight people, according to state media, shortly after state television reported that attackers had struck the Syrian Central Bank in Damascus with rocket-propelled grenades. At the moment, there are only around 15 U.N. ceasefire monitors in Syria.

  Africa

  • Sudan declared a state of emergency along its border with South Sudan amid continued fighting between the two sides.

  • The Ugandan military accused Sudan of supporting Joseph Kony's Lord's Resistance Army.  

  • A bomber attacked a Nigerian police convoy a day after at least 19 people were killed in two attacks on church services in the country.

  Europe

  • Shukri Ghanem, a former Libyan prime minister and oil minister under Muammar al-Qaddafi, was found dead in the Danube river in Austria. 

  • The British government said it had made every effort to secure the release of a British aid worker who was murdered in Pakistan. 

  • The Spanish economy has officially slipped back into recession.

  Asia

  • A U.S. drone strike reportedly killed three suspected militants in Pakistan's tribal region. 

  • U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged the international community to lift sanctions against Myanmar in an address to the country's parliament, as the opposition called off a boycott of parliament.

  • Protesters in Malaysia accused the police of brutality in breaking up a large demonstration.

  Middle East

  • Israel began building a wall along part of its border with Lebanon.

  • A Bahraini appeals court ordered retrials for more than 20 activists, including Abdulhadi al-Khawaja.  

  • Benzion Netanyahu, the father of Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, died at age 102. 

  Americas

  • Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is meeting with President Barack Obama at the White House.

  • A French reporter is missing after a clash between the Colombian military and FARC rebels.

  • Peru is investigating the mysterious death of hundreds of pelicans along its northern coast.

  
  

  Goh Chai Hin/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: Downgraded Spain faces record-high unemployment

  Posted: April 27, 2012, 3:21 pm by Uri Friedman

  Downgraded Spain faces record-high unemployment

  Top story: Spain announced on Friday that the country's unemployment rate had hit 24.4 percent in the first quarter of 2012 -- the highest rate in the eurozone. The release of Spain's record-high unemployment figures followed the rating agency Standard & Poor's decision to downgrade the country's credit rating to BBB+, which puts Spain on par with Italy.  

  "Spain is in a crisis of huge proportions," Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo warned in a radio interview. Markets initially reacted negatively to the news out of Spain but have since recovered "as the downgrade was largely viewed as a belated acknowledgment of the market realities," according to the Associated Press. 

  The developments come as Spain slips back into recession and moves to the forefront of the European debt crisis despite the Spanish government's austerity measures and labor market reforms.

  Chinese dissident escapes: Chen Guangcheng, a blind rights activist who had been under house arrest in Shandong province, has escaped from his home and may now be in Beijing, though his whereabouts are unclear. In a video posted online, Chen demanded that Prime Minister Wen Jiabao punish officials who had abused him and his family. 

  Europe

  • Four explosions struck the Ukrainian city of Dnipropetrovsk in a suspected terrorist attack.

  • The Netherlands reached an agreement to meet budget targets set by the European Union.

  • A Dutch judge upheld a new law prohibiting foreigners from entering cannabis coffee shops. 

  Asia

  • The United States agreed to move thousands of Marines out of Okinawa, Japan.

  • Pakistan's prime minister refused to resign after the Supreme Court convicted him of contempt of court.

  • An Afghan special forces soldier killed a U.S. soldier and his translator in southern Afghanistan.

  Americas

  • The U.S. Secret Service is investigating fresh allegations of agents paying for strippers and prostitutes in El Salvador.

  • The United Kingdom banned exports to Argentina's military amid a standoff over the Falkland Islands.

  • A U.S. federal judge rejected a request to release photos and video of Osama bin Laden from the raid on his compound. 

  Middle East

  • U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the Syrian government was "in contravention" of envoy Kofi Annan's peace plan.

  • At least 13 people were killed in attacks in Iraq's Diyala province.

  • Pakistan deported Osama bin Laden's three widows and children to Saudi Arabia.

  Africa

  • The West African bloc ECOWAS will send troops to Mali and Guinea-Bissau in response to coups in both countries. 

  • The U.N. Security Council is considering sanctions against Sudan and South Sudan.

  • Ghana has become the first African country to simultaneously offer children rotavirus and pneumococcal vaccines. 

  
  

  Cristina Quicler/AFP/Getty Images

• Foreign Policy wins Overseas Press Club award

  Posted: April 25, 2012, 8:47 pm by Uri Friedman

  We're very excited to announce that Foreign Policy has won an Overseas Press Club award for general excellence on the web. In a reminder of the major international news stories this past year, six of the OPC's 27 awards were related to coverage of the Libyan uprising and four to coverage of Japan's earthquake and tsunami. The awards will be presented at a dinner tonight in New York.

  Thanks to all of you for helping make ForeignPolicy.com such a vibrant destination!

• Morning Brief: Pakistan follows India with missile test

  Posted: April 25, 2012, 3:09 pm by Uri Friedman

  Pakistan follows India with missile test

  Top story: Pakistan announced on Wednesday that it had successfully tested an intermediate-range, nuclear-capable ballistic missile, less than a week after archrival India test-fired a long-range missile that can also deliver a nuclear warhead. The Pakistani military said the Shaheen-1A launched into the Indian Ocean today has a longer range than its predecessor, the Shaheen-1 (pictured above).

  Pakistani defense analyst Mansoor Ahmed tells the New York Times that the test was not in response to India's and that "Pakistan is only concerned with maintaining a minimum credible deterrent capability vis-a-vis India." India, for its part, framed its test as an effort to counter China's regional power. 

  Meanwhile, speculation is mounting that North Korea may carry out a third nuclear test after a failed rocket launch.

  Double-dip in Europe: New data shows that the U.K. economy contracted in the first quarter of 2012 after shrinking in the fourth quarter of 2011, which technically means that the United Kingdom has returned to recession. Spain revealed on Monday that it too had slipped back into recession.   

  Middle East

  • Violence continued in and around Damascus despite a ceasefire and observer mission in Syria.

  • Israel's military chief raised doubts about Iran's intent to build nuclear weapons, as Israel's prime minister expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of sanctions against Tehran.

  • A court found the Egyptian actor Adel Imam guilty of insulting Islam.

  Europe

  • News Corporation Chairman Rupert Murdoch testified before a judicial inquiry on his business practices and ties to British politicians. 

  • Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko launched a hunger strike in prison.

  • French President Nicolas Sarkozy said he would not strike a deal with the far-right in his reelection bid.

  Asia

  • China subtly warned North Korea not to carry out an expected nuclear test.

  • The Supreme Court in the Philippines ruled that an estate belonging to the country's president should be split up among 6,000 farmers.

  • The Securities and Exchange Commission has reportedly launched an investigation into whether Hollywood studios paid bribes in China.

  Americas

  • Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney secured five more primary victories.

  • The son of ousted Chinese politician Bo Xilai defended his academic record and lifestyle in a letter to the Harvard Crimson student newspaper. 

  • Two Cuban actors who appeared in a film about Cuban defectors appear to have defected in Miami. 

  Africa

  • The African Union is demanding that Sudan and South Sudan adhere to a peace deal.

  • South African youth leader Julius Malema lost an appeal against his expulsion from the ruling African National Congress.

  • Two attacks in central Nigeria have left five people dead.

  
  

  Pakistan Ministry of Defense via Getty Images

• Morning Brief: Sarkozy suffers setback in French presidential race

  Posted: April 23, 2012, 2:53 pm by Uri Friedman

  Sarkozy suffers setback in French presidential race

  Top story: French President Nicolas Sarkozy received 27.1 percent of the vote in the first round of the country's presidential election on Sunday, while his Socialist challenger Francois Hollande finished with 28.6 percent (French Twitter users flaunted a ban on publishing early results by speaking in code). The contest, which will be followed by a second round of voting on May 6, marks the first time that a sitting French president has lost in the first round, according to the BBC.  

  In another first, National Front leader Marine Le Pen garnered 18 percent of the vote -- the largest share a far-right candidate has ever won in the French presidential election. On Monday, Sarkozy promised to control immigration and prioritize national security, in what Reuters interprets as a bid to woo Le Pen's supporters.

  The outcome of the election will have major implications not only for France but also for Europe as a whole. Hollande has pledged to renegotiate a European Union fiscal treaty and promote solutions to the region's debt crisis that Germany opposes.

  War in Afghanistan: Afghanistan and the United States completed a strategic partnership agreement that promises American support for Afghanistan for a decade after the withdrawal of U.S. combat troops in 2014.

  Middle East

  • Iran claimed to have extracted secret data from an American drone that it captured last year.

  • Anti-government protests in Bahrain did not disrupt the Formula One Grand Prix on Sunday.

  • Egypt's state-owned natural gas company halted the delivery of gas to Israel over a payment dispute.

  Africa

  • There are reports of aerial attacks and ground fighting along the disputed border between Sudan and South Sudan.

  • Former Malawian President Bingu wa Mutharika will be buried at his farm in southern Malawi.

  • Eritrea accused the CIA of spreading "lies" about the health of its president. 

  Europe

  • The collapse of budget talks in the Netherlands has prompted talk of early elections.

  • Spain slipped back into recession according to new data from its central bank.

  • Norway shooter Anders Behring Breivik apologized for killing "innocent" people in his Oslo bombing but did not express regret for his rampage at a Labour Party summer camp.

  Americas

  • A new report alleges that Wal-Mart shut down an internal investigation that had unearthed evidence of bribery by a subsidiary in Mexico.  

  • The International Monetary Fund increased its lending capacity by $430 billion at an annual meeting in Washington, D.C. 

  • Mexican police are investigating the fatal shooting of a retired general in Mexico City.

  Asia

  • Aung San Suu Kyi's party in Myanmar is boycotting parliament over the wording of the oath of office for lawmakers, as the European Union suspends its sanctions against the country. 

  • North Korea is escalating its rhetoric against South Korea's leaders after Pyongyang's failed rocket launch.

  • Police clashed with demonstrators in Bangladesh's capital amid anger over a missing politician.

  
  

  Jean-Francois Monier/AFP/Getty Images

• Romney's new foreign policy spokesman: Quite the tweeter

  Posted: April 20, 2012, 12:40 am by Uri Friedman

  

  When Mitt Romney's campaign announced on Thursday that the Republican presidential candidate had hired Richard Grenell, a former Bush administration spokesman at the United Nations, as his foreign policy and national security spokesman, early reports focused on the fact that Grenell is openly gay. 

  But this afternoon, Politico highlighted another side of Grenell: The man is a prolific tweeter -- one who dishes out zingers to those who get on his bad side, whether they be Newt Gingrich ("what's higher? The number of jobs newt's created or the number of wives he's had?"), Callista Gingrich ("do you think callista's hair snaps on?"), or Rick Santorum ("im rick santorum and gay people should be deported").

  As tends to happen in today's compressed news cycle, Grenell has already apologized for "any hurt" his tweets caused, telling Politico that they were meant to be "tongue-in-cheek and humorous" and that he'll remove them from Twitter.

  But Grenell hasn't deleted all his scathing comments, many of them related to foreign policy. Here are some of the issues that provoke his anger again and again (as you'll see, there's a lot of overlap). Now that Grenell is Romney's spokesman, we'll probably be hearing these critiques of the Obama administration's foreign policy more and more in the months ahead.

  • U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice: "can someone at the StateDepartment tell SusanRice that SHE'S the US Ambassador to the UN. #StatementsDontCutIt"

  • Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: "secretary of state hillary clinton speaks more clearly about finding amelia earhart's plane than the sudan crisis. #AllPoliticsForHer"

  • Obama's open mic gaffe about needing flexibility on missile defense: "I'm waiting for Obama to whisper to Mexico's leader 'i need flexibility on the illegal thing til after November'"

  • Obama administration's response to Syria: "why is SusanRice the only American left holding out for #Assad to 'seize the moment'. he's seized 9 thousand moments so far!"

  • Obama administration's response to Iran: "SusanRice's tenure in short: no action on Syria's violence, trips to DC, nothing on Iran in 22 months, more trips to DC, lots of tweets"

  • Media bias: "day 6 and still no tweet from Andrea @Mitchellreports on Obama's secret whisper requests for 'flexibility' from Russian president #oops" (Yes, there were previous updates.)

  But come on, people. Today's episode is about more than what Grenell thinks of Callista's hair or Newt's marriage life (or, for that matter, Obama campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt's eyebrows -- another deleted tweet not mentioned by Politico).

  No, the real question is: Why haven't politicos learned by now that you scrub your Twitter feed of all controversial content before you enter the political limelight?

• Morning Brief: Security Council mulls response to ongoing violence in Syria

  Posted: April 20, 2012, 3:08 pm by Uri Friedman

  Security Council mulls response to ongoing violence in Syria

  Top story: On Thursday, Syria and the United Nations agreed to allow at least 250 unarmed observers into the country to monitor a ceasefire, as foreign ministers from Arab and Western nations in Paris for a Friends of Syria meeting called envoy Kofi Annan's peace plan the "last hope" to avoid civil war in Syria. 

  But serious complications remain. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and news outlets have reported evidence of ceasefire breaches over the past week, and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged the U.N. Security Council to slap an arms embargo and other sanctions on Syria if the violent crackdown persists. 

  France, meanwhile, is drafting a new Security Council resolution that would dispatch 500 monitors and helicopters to Syria, as Ban urges the Security Council to quickly pass a resolution authorizing the deployment of up to 300 observers. Russia, which did not attend the Friends of Syria meeting, appears to be supportive of expanding the observer mission but not imposing additional sanctions.  

  French election: Nicolas Sarkozy's reelection prospects are looking bleak ahead of the first round of voting on Sunday. Sarkozy could become the first one-term French president since 1981.

  Africa

  • Fighting is spreading along the disputed border between Sudan and South Sudan.

  • Mali's ousted leader, Amadou Toumani Toure, fled to neighboring Senegal.

  • A new scientific report has highlighted a vast supply of groundwater beneath Africa.

  Middle East

  • Police in Bahrain are clashing with protesters ahead of the Grand Prix this weekend. 

  • Al Qaeda's affiliate in Iraq claimed responsibility for a wave of bombings in the country on Thursday.

  • Thousands of protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square called for an end to Egypt's military rule.

  Asia

  • Chinese authorities are reportedly detaining officials in Chongqing with ties to Bo Xilai for questioning.

  • Myanmar's President Thein Sein is visiting Japan to discuss financial aid and debt relief. 

  • The Chinese press is ridiculing India's long-range missile test.

  Americas

  • The United States freed two Chinese Muslim detainees at the Guantanamo Bay prison, in the first prisoner transfer there in more than a year. 

  • The Secret Service is expanding its inquiry into the prostitution scandal in Colombia.

  • Princess Cruises apologized for one of its ships sailing past a stricken boat carrying three Panamanians, two of whom later died.

  Europe

  • Norway shooter Anders Behring Breivik said he'd studied al Qaeda's tactics before embarking on his rampage last year.

  • Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned the news media to be careful about how it reported teenage suicides, which have spiked recently. 

  • Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi made an unexpected appearance at his trial for paying for sex with an underage girl. 

  
  

  Francois Guillot/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: North Korea backs out of U.S. nuclear deal

  Posted: April 18, 2012, 3:09 pm by Uri Friedman

  North Korea backs out of U.S. nuclear deal

  Top story: On Tuesday, North Korea declared that it was no longer bound by a deal with the United States in February to suspend uranium enrichment, nuclear tests, and long-range missile tests in exchange for food aid, which Washington halted after Pyongyang's failed rocket launch last week. An agreement to allow nuclear inspectors into the country has also fallen apart.

  "We have thus become able to take necessary retaliatory measures," the North Korean Foreign Ministry said in a statement, which came shortly after the U.N. Security Council condemned North Korea for its rocket launch and ordered additional sanctions against the country.  

  North Korea didn't specify what form that retaliation would take, but some fear that Pyongyang is planning a third nuclear test. "Many analysts expect that with its third test, North Korea will for the first time try a nuclear device using highly enriched uranium," Reuters notes.

  Myanmar: Lawmaker and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi will travel outside Myanmar for the first time in more than two decades, according to her party, in yet another sign of the country's opening. She'll visit Norway and Britain in June. 

  Middle East

  • Syrian security forces are reportedly shelling Homs despite a ceasefire, as the wives of the British and French ambassadors to the United Nations release a video plea to Asma al-Assad. 

  • Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas sent a letter to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterating his preconditions for peace talks to resume.

  • At least 1,200 Palestinians in Israeli jails launched coordinated hunger strikes.

  Asia

  • India will test fire an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

  • Afghan President Hamid Karzai delivered an emotional speech on his vision for an independent Afghanistan, as the United States and NATO finalize their withdrawal plan.

  • China summoned a diplomat from the Philippines once again over tensions in the South China Sea.

  Americas

  • Argentina's nationalization of the oil firm YPF has provoked threats of retaliation from Spain.

  • American investigators are searching for up to 21 women who may have spent the night with U.S. security officers in Colombia.

  • Investor Warren Buffett has been diagnosed with stage one prostate cancer. 

  Europe

  • Norway shooter Anders Behring Breivik faced questioning from prosecutors on the third day of his trial.

  • A Libyan military commander is suing a former British foreign minister for illegally transferring him to Libya, where he faced torture under Muammar al-Qaddafi.

  • British authorities arrested the Muslim cleric Abu Qatada only months after he was released following a failed effort to deport him. 

  Africa

  • Malian soldiers reportedly arrested several top political figures, including two men who had planned to run for president.

  • Sudan and South Sudan are clashing on a new front along their disputed border. 

  • The United States criticized Swaziland for its crackdown on protests last week.

  
  

  Pedro Ugarte/AFP/Getty Images

• France's Dixville Notch

  Posted: April 16, 2012, 9:36 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  The hamlet of Dixville Notch (population: 9) is famous for being the first town to vote in New Hampshire's primary and predicting the eventual Republican nominee in every presidential election since 1968 (its record in the Democratic primary and general election is spottier). France, it turns out, has something similar.

  In recent days, there have been several reports on the Burgundy village of Donzy (with 1,700 residents, a pulsing metropolis compared with Dixville Notch), where electoral results have served as an uncanny bellwhether for the whipsawing national vote in every presidential race since 1981. And with the first round of voting in this year's election set to begin later this month, things are not looking good for President Nicolas Sarkozy, who won Donzy in 2007 but is currently trailing François Hollande in national polls as the French economy sputters.

  Here's the Economist's report from the town:

  The message I picked up from almost everybody I spoke to suggested that Mr Hollande is heading for victory. Jean-Paul Jacob, the current (independent) centre-right mayor, told me straight out: "My bet is that Donzy will vote Hollande." Not, he said, out of any great enthusiasm for the Socialist: "People find him cold; there's no fervour about him." (Indeed, there was little evidence of any political activism at all: the only poster pasted to the official campaign boards was for Philippe Poutou, an anti-capitalist candidate. Local talk is more often about "fishing and fêtes", said a local in the bar.) Rather, it was because people are disappointed with Mr Sarkozy. "His personality," said the mayor, a local notary, wryly, "doesn't leave people indifferent."

  But at a local bar (almost every report makes the obligatory stop at a watering hole), Reuters' Vicky Buffery files a slightly more encouraging dispatch for Sarkozy's camp:

  Questions about the election draw Gallic shrugs. One man says he'll vote but hasn't decided which way. When pushed, he struggles to remember the name of Segolene Royal, the Socialist Party candidate for whom he voted in 2007.

  There's a sense among Donzy's voters that the election result could go any way, despite polls pointing to a win for Hollande.

  It is hard to find people who will admit to supporting Sarkozy but several say he will have their vote.

  As for Dixville Notch, its predictive power appears to be intact. Mitt Romney, who's now cruising to the GOP nomination, won the town's vote. Well, actually, his two votes put him in a tie for first place with Jon Huntsman, who has long since departed the Republican race. But why let messy details like that get in the way of the mystique.

• What happened to Obama's guayabera?

  Posted: April 16, 2012, 7:43 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  Something didn't happen at the sixth Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia over the weekend. Yes, Western hemisphere nations failed to reach consensus on including Cuba in the gathering, overhauling the region's drug policy (an expert taskforce will study the issue), or, really, much of anything. But I'm talking about something else: Barack Obama appears to have not worn a guayabera -- the light tropical dress shirt that several Latin American leaders are sporting in the summit photo-op above. And there's our president, looking decidedly stuffy in a suit jacket and (admittedly open) button-down. 

  "Obama, loyal to his jacket. The others, in guayaberas," read a caption to a similar picture published in Venezuela's El Universal. (The article proceeds to critique the dress of several heads of state, noting that, among the female leaders, Costa Rica's Laura Chinchilla came closest to adopting the guayabera style.)

  In the run-up to the summit, the daughter of Colombian designer Edgar Gómez Estévez told local media and the Spanish news agency EFE that she was making 130 guayaberas for Obama and that they would be more daring than usual because Obama was a "distinct, special, happy, and extroverted person." As far as I can tell, the White House never confirmed that Obama would be wearing a Gómez-designed guayabera.

  Nevertheless, Cuba's Fidel Castro latched on to the reports, dubbing the event the "summit of the guayaberas" and criticizing the U.S. president for planning to wear a shirt that originated in Cuba while barring Cuba from attending the summit.

  To be fair to Obama, it appears that several leaders at the summit decided to forego the guayabera (and some are even wearing ties!):

  

  So what happened with Obama's wardrobe? Either the early media reports were wrong, or Obama had a change of heart about wearing the shirt. The real question: How long before we see a campaign ad accusing Obama of taking directives -- on fashion, no less -- from Fidel? 

• Morning Brief: Fighting subsides in Afghan capital

  Posted: April 16, 2012, 3:12 pm by Uri Friedman

  Fighting subsides in Afghan capital

  Top story: On Sunday, the Taliban launched coordinated attacks in Kabul and three eastern Afghan provinces, in what a spokesman for the group said was the start of the spring offensive. Thirty-six militants, eight policemen, and three civilians were killed in 18 hours of violence, according to Afghanistan's Interior Ministry. There are reports that the Taliban-allied Haqqani network may have also been involved in the assault. 

  On Monday, Afghan President Hamid Karzai praised the performance of his security forces and blamed the attacks on intelligence failures -- particularly on the part of NATO. The brazen strikes once again undermined confidence in NATO's plan to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan by 2014.

  Also on Sunday, Taliban fighters orchestrated a massive jailbreak in a northwestern Pakistani town that freed nearly 400 prisoners, including a man who was sentenced to death for plotting to assassinate former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf.

  Norway shooter goes on trial: Anders Behring Breivik, who killed 77 people in a car bombing and shooting rampage last July, appeared in an Oslo court on Monday to begin a trial that is expected to last 10 weeks. "I acknowledge the acts but I don't plead guilty as I claim I was doing it in self-defense," Breivik told the judge, adding that he did not recognize the court's authority because of the government's support for multiculturalism.

  Middle East

  • Egypt's presidential election commission disqualified three of five leading presidential candidates on technical grounds.

  • The first U.N. military observers arrived in Syria to monitor a four-day-old ceasefire, amid reports of continued government shelling.

  • Israel blocked pro-Palestinian activists from traveling to Bethlehem in the West Bank.

  Asia

  • The Philippines and the United States have begun joint military exercises in the South China Sea.

  • Australia has decided to ease sanctions against Myanmar.

  • In his first public speech, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un emphasized his commitment to strengthening the military.

  Europe

  • The yield on Spain's 10-year bonds rose above six percent, sparking renewed concerns about the need for a bailout.

  • Pope Benedict XVI celebrated his 85th birthday at the Vatican. 

  • King Juan Carlos of Spain underwent hip surgery following a hunting trip in Botswana that has been criticized by politicians.  

  Americas

  • The Summit of the Americas in Colombia concluded without a consensus statement and with divisions over whether to include Cuba in the next gathering, as a scandal surfaced involving the Secret Service.

  • Peruvian troops freed gas workers kidnapped by Shining Path rebels. 

  • The Spanish oil company Repsol is appealing to Argentine officials for talks over concerns that its subsidiary in Argentina could be nationalized.

  Africa

  • Coup leaders in Guinea-Bissau say they will establish an interim government with opposition parties, and have accepted an offer by East Timor's outgoing president to act as a mediator. 

  • Sudanese warplanes bombed a U.N. peacekeeping base in South Sudan.

  • Gunmen reportedly abducted a Swiss woman in the Malian city of Timbuktu.

  
  

  Massoud Hossaini/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: World reacts to North Korean rocket launch

  Posted: April 13, 2012, 3:04 pm by Uri Friedman

  World reacts to North Korean rocket launch

  Top story: North Korea launched a rocket on Friday despite warnings by the United States and its allies, who worry that Pyongyang is testing technology for a long-range missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead. But in a blow to North Korea's young leader, Kim Jong Un, the rocket reportedly disintegrated shortly after launching. After hours of silence, North Korea's state-run media confirmed that the rocket "failed to enter its preset orbit."

  International reaction has been swift. American, Japanese, and South Korean officials condemned the launch, and the United States reiterated its plan to suspend roughly $200 million in promised food aid to North Korea. Russia's foreign minister said the launch violated U.N. Security Council sanctions but added that, after talks with his Chinese and Indian counterparts, Russia opposed new sanctions on North Korea. The Security Council will meet on Friday to discuss the launch.

  Reuters, meanwhile, is highlighting concerns that North Korea could undertake a third nuclear test to demonstrate its military strength after this week's high-profile failure.

  Syria: A ceasefire negotiated by envoy Kofi Annan appears to be holding for a second day, though activists have reported scattered clashes and the presence of tanks, armed checkpoints, and rooftop snipers. The U.N. Security Council is set to vote on a resolution that would dispatch monitors to Syria to help enforce the peace plan.   

  Africa

  • Soldiers in Guinea-Bissau have seized control of parts of the capital in an apparent coup attempt.

  • The U.N. Security Council called for an end to fighting on Sudan's southern border.

  • Mali's interim ruler threatened "total war" against Tuareg rebels in the north. 

  Asia

  • David Cameron has become the first British prime minister to visit Myanmar. 

  • The Pakistani parliament presented the United States with a list of demands, including an end to CIA drone strikes.

  • The Chinese economy grew by an annual rate of 8.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012 -- its slowest pace in nearly three years.

  Americas

  • Partners in Health and Gheskio began administering cholera vaccines in Haiti, where the disease has killed more than 7,000 people.

  • Trade, energy, and drug trafficking will likely dominate the conversation at this weekend's Summit of the Americas in Colombia.

  • The Peruvian government refused to negotiate with Shining Path rebels who recently kidnapped 42 gas workers.  

  Middle East

  • Formula 1's governing body has confirmed that the controversial Bahrain Grand Prix will take place on April 22.

  • Ahmed Ben Bella, the first president of Algeria after it gained independence from France, died at the age of 95.

  • The Egyptian parliament passed a law prohibiting former President Hosni Mubarak's senior officials from running for president, though the ruling military council must still approve it.  

  Europe

  • The trial of four men accused of plotting an attack on a newspaper that published cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad has begun in Denmark.

  • The first suspect in a Spanish investigation into the abduction of newborns appeared in court.

  • French President Nicolas Sarkozy admitted that he did not visit Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant, as he had indicated in a campaign speech.

  
  

  Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: Mystery surrounding ousted Chinese leader Bo Xilai deepens

  Posted: April 11, 2012, 3:16 pm by Uri Friedman

  Mystery surrounding ousted Chinese leader Bo Xilai deepens

  Top story: On Tuesday, Chinese authorities made two announcements that only inflated what the New York Times is calling the "biggest political scandal to hit China's Communist Party in a generation" -- one that comes amid a leadership transition in China.

  Officials declared that Bo Xilai, who was removed from his post as Chongqing party chief in March, would also be suspended from the ruling Politburo and larger Central Committee for suspected "discipline violations." And they also revealed that Bo's wife, Gu Kailai, is being investigated in the killing of British businessman Neil Haywood, whose death was initially attributed to alcohol poisoning but is now considered an "intentional homicide." The official Chinese press claims these actions demonstrate the government's commitment to the rule of law.     

  In his first comments since Gu's arrest, British Prime Minister David Cameron vowed to "get to the bottom" of Heywood's death.

  Earthquake in Indonesia: An 8.7-magnitude earthquake struck off Indonesia's Aceh province on Wednesday, triggering aftershocks and a regional tsunami alert. Authorities say that there are no immediate reports of casualties or damage, but the news raised fears of another natural disaster like the 9.1-magnitude earthquake and tsunami in 2004.

  Middle East

  • Envoy Kofi Annan urged Iran to support his peace effort in Syria and said the Syrian government had assured him that it would respect a ceasefire due to begin on Thursday.

  • Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared that his country had enough reserves of foreign currency to survive for years without exporting oil.

  • Iraq's fugitive vice president claims two more of his bodyguards were tortured to death by the country's security forces.

  Asia

  • North Korea began injecting fuel into a long-range rocket set to launch within days.

  • The Malaysian government is considering legislation that would end indefinite detention.

  • The Philippines and China are working to resolve a naval standoff in the South China Sea.

  Americas

  • U.S. presidential candidate Rick Santorum withdrew from the Republican race, paving the way for Mitt Romney's nomination. 

  • Bolivia says it will cancel a Brazilian firm's contract to build a road through the Amazon rainforest. 

  • A kidnapped Costa Rican diplomat was freed in Venezuela.

  Europe

  • Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos is expected to call this week for the country's first election since the debt crisis. 

  • Raymond Aubrac, a leader of the French resistance against the Nazis, died at age 97.

  • Organizers of anti-government demonstrations in Moscow took their protests to the southern city of Astrakhan to support an opposition mayoral candidate. 

  Africa

  • Sudan pledged to retake its largest oil field, which South Sudan seized on Tuesday. 

  • More than 30,000 people attended the funeral of Tanzanian film star Steven Kanumba. 

  • In her first days in office, Malawian President Joyce Banda has opened an investigation into the death of an activist and fired the country's police chief, minister of information, and head of state broadcasting.

  
  

  Ed Jones/AFP/Getty Images

• Iran Watch: Fordoomed?

  Posted: April 9, 2012, 1:52 am by Uri Friedman

  

  Last week, I explained how upcoming nuclear talks could get bogged down in disagreement if Western powers demand that Iran, as a confidence-building measure, stop enriching uranium to 20 percent (which is steps away from weapons-grade material) and ship existing stockpiles of the higher grade uranium out of the country. 

  Over the weekend, the New York Times reported that the United States and its European allies will indeed open negotiations with this demand, along with a call for Iran to shutter a nuclear facility burrowed under a mountain:

  The hard-line approach would require the country's military leadership to give up the Fordo enrichment plant outside the holy city of Qum, and with it a huge investment in the one facility that is most hardened against airstrikes....

  "We have no idea how the Iranians will react," one senior administration official said. "We probably won't know after the first meeting."

  Indeed, with negotiations set to begin this Saturday in Istanbul, the Iranians are already reacting. Fereydoon Abbasi, the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, called the demands outlined in the Times article "irrational."

  But Abbasi also struck a note of compromise (or, at the very least, flexibility) -- suggesting that Iran might consider returning uranium enrichment to the lower levels required for power generation once it had amassed enough 20 percent material to produce medical isotopes for cancer treatment and other research.

  

  Iran meter: The Times report hasn't just provoked a strong reaction in Iran. In the United States, former CIA officer Paul Pillar is dismayed by America's reported negotiating position -- particularly the part about dismantling the Fordo nuclear facility.

  "The Western message to Tehran seems pretty clear: we might be willing to tolerate some sort of Iranian nuclear program, but only one consisting of facilities that would suffer significant damage if we, or the Israelis, later decide to bomb it," he writes. "Not the sort of formula that inspires trust among Iranian leaders and gives them much incentive to move toward an agreement."

  Here at Foreign Policy, Stephen Walt homes in on the same demand, and is equally concerned that the United States is formulating fatally flawed opening bids. "It would be an extraordinarily humiliating climb-down for [the Iranians] to agree to shut the facility down at this point and then dismantle it," he notes.

  If Pillar and Walt are right, is there any reason for optimism about the upcoming talks? In fact, there are hints that while the Fordo demand may be a non-starter, uranium enrichment could offer more fertile ground for negotiations -- and that both sides recognize this reality. Take this passage from the Times article: 

  While opening bids in international negotiations are often designed to set a high bar, as a political matter American and European officials say they cannot imagine agreeing to any outcome that leaves Iran with a stockpile of fuel, enriched to 20 percent purity, that could be converted to bomb grade in a matter of months.

  Or this report today from the Associated Press on the buzz in Iran:

  What could get traction -- suggested the hardline newspaper Kayhan -- is a so-called "enrichment level stabilization." That means halting the 20 percent enrichment, the highest level acknowledged by Iran, and continuing with lower levels of about 3.5 percent needed for ordinary reactors....

  Mehdi Sanaei, a moderate lawmaker, said a possible bargaining position could be an agreement to temporarily stop 20 percent enrichment in exchange for lifting some economic sanctions.

  In other words, there's still hope for a diplomatic breakthrough, though it's difficult to stay optimistic when these reports mingle with the news that the United States is dispatching a second aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf. 

• Morning Brief: North Korea prepares for rocket launch

  Posted: April 9, 2012, 3:21 pm by Uri Friedman

  North Korea prepares for rocket launch

  Top story: On Sunday, North Korea invited a group of foreign journalists to the Sohae satellite station near the border with China to observe the long-range Unha-3 rocket that it plans to launch by next Monday. The launch will coincide with national celebrations for the 100th birthday of North Korea's founder Kim Il Sung.

  "Painted with the North Korean flag, it towered 30 meters high," writes the BBC's Damian Grammaticas, who was on the scene. "Soldiers stood guard while technicians worked on the rocket."

  North Korea claims the rocket will only carry a weather satellite, but South Korea and the United States believe Pyongyang is testing a ballistic missile. And South Korea is also warning that new satellite images of piles of earth near the entrance to a tunnel at a nuclear test site suggest North Korea may be planning a third underground nuclear test. 

  Syria: Syrian opposition fighters rejected a government demand for written guarantees to end attacks just 48 hours before a proposed ceasefire, as deadly clashes persist and envoy Kofi Annan's peace plan looks increasingly fragile. Turkey, meanwhile, is accusing the Syrian army of firing across the border. 

  Asia

  • The United States ceded control of special operations missions -- including night raids -- to Afghan forces.

  • Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari met with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in a rare high-level visit between the rival countries.

  • South Korea's police chief resigned after a woman was raped and murdered despite calling the police for help.

  Africa

  • A car bomb killed at least 38 people in the Nigerian city of Kaduna on Easter Sunday. 

  • Mali's president stepped down as part of a deal that will transfer power from coup leaders to the parliamentary speaker.  

  • Malawian Vice President Joyce Banda was sworn in as president after the death of Bingu wa Mutharika. 

  Americas

  • Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff will meet with President Barack Obama on Monday as part of her first official visit to the United States. 

  • Efforts are still underway to free nine trapped Peruvian miners. 

  • Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has returned to Cuba for a third round of cancer treatment.

  Middle East

  • Ahead of nuclear talks between Iran and global powers, the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization suggested that his country might be willing to make concessions on uranium enrichment while the foreign minister added that Iran would not agree to pre-conditions.

  • The Muslim Brotherhood warned of renewed unrest if Omar Suleiman, Hosni Mubarak's former spy chief, succeeds in his bid for the presidency.

  • At least 25 people were killed when militants attacked a military camp in southern Yemen.

  Europe

  • Russian investigators dropped charges against a doctor in the case of lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, who died in a Russian jail.  

  • Early results suggest that former KGB official Leonid Tibilov has been elected president of South Ossetia. 

  • The British government reportedly approved the rendition of Abdel Hakim Belhaj, now a top Libyan military commander, to Muammar al-Qaddafi's regime in 2004.  

  
  

  Pedro Ugarte/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: Malawian government stays silent on president's reported death

  Posted: April 6, 2012, 3:17 pm by Uri Friedman

  Malawian government stays silent on president's reported death

  Top story: Citing anonymous medical and government sources, both the BBC and Reuters are reporting that Malawian President Bingu wa Mutharika has died after suffering a heart attack. But the government has not confirmed the reports, only saying that the 78-year-old leader was taken to South Africa for medical treatment.

  The BBC notes that if Mutharika has indeed died, it could spark a constitutional crisis. The vice president is technically supposed to assume power, the news outlet explains, but "Vice President Joyce Banda and Mr. Mutharika fell out after a row over the succession in 2010, and she was expelled from the ruling Democratic People's Party." 

  Mutharika, a former World Bank economist, was first elected in 2004 and has increasingly faced allegations of nepotism, economic mismanagement, and authoritarian tendencies.  

  Victor Bout trial: A U.S. judge sentenced Russian arms dealer Victor Bout to 25 years in jail for attempting to sell heavy arms to the FARC, a Colombian rebel group, for use in targeting American pilots. Russia condemned the sentence as "political," while Bout's lawyer promised to appeal the verdict.  

  Africa

  • Tuareg rebels declared an independent state called Azawad in northern Mali.  

  • Hundreds of Congolese troops loyal to a former rebel leader have reportedly defected from the army.

  • Invisible Children released a second "Kony 2012" video.

  Middle East

  • The Syrian military is continuing to clash with opposition fighters ahead of a ceasefire deadline, as thousands of Syrian refugees flee to Turkey. 

  • The United Arab Emirates has detained foreign employees of the National Democratic Institute.

  • The lawyer for Saif al-Islam Qaddafi at the International Criminal Court claimed his client, who is being held by a Libyan militia, has been beaten and kept in isolation.

  Asia

  • Myanmar is holding talks with the Karen rebels as part of an effort to broker peace with ethnic minority insurgents.

  • Pakistani politicians are criticizing the United States for placing a $10 million bounty on the militant leader Hafiz Saeed. 

  • Lai Changxing, the head of a major Chinese smuggling ring, has gone on trial.  

  Europe

  • Umberto Bossi, the head of Italy's Northern League, resigned amid an investigation of party officials for fraud and illegal party financing.

  • Bosnia-Herzegovina is marking the 20th anniversary of the start of the Bosnian war.

  • Scotland Yard has suspended eight police officers over allegations of racism. 

  Americas

  • Peru's president claimed the Shining Path rebel group had been defeated in one of its strongholds after the capture of a key leader. 

  • A U.S. court sentenced the leader of a Mexican drug gang to life in prison for the murder of three people associated with the American consulate in Ciudad Juarez.

  • The U.S. Coast Guard used a cannon to sink an unmanned Japanese ship that had drifted toward Alaska after Japan's 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

  
  

  Alexander Joe/AFP/Getty Images

• What's Paul Ryan's foreign policy?

  Posted: April 5, 2012, 2:27 am by Uri Friedman

  

  If you believe the buzz among political pundits this week, Mitt Romney may have not just picked up a primary win and endorsement from Representative Paul Ryan (R-WI) in Wisconsin. He may have found a running mate. The Washington Post's Philip Rucker notes that Ryan, in what smacked of a VP tryout, appeared by Romney's "side at every turn" in Wisconsin, while the Washington Examiner's Charlie Spiering highlights a recent speech in which Ryan sounds very much like a vice presidential candidate -- conjuring up memories of "flipping burgers at McDonalds" and "waiting tables to pay back my student loans" in a paean to the American dream.     

  Other political analysts are arguing that whether or not Romney puts Ryan on the ticket, President Obama may run as much against the Wisconsin congressman -- the architect of the House Republican budget plan -- as against Romney. On Tuesday, Obama declared that the budget proposal, which would slash $5.3 trillion in federal spending over the next decade, would pit rich against poor in what amounted to "social Darwinism."   

  As the campaign spotlight lingers on Ryan, it's worth pointing out that the House Budget Committee chairman isn't a one-trick pony. Sure, he's styled himself as an intellectual leader on fiscal policy. But he has a distinct worldview as well. Here are some of the components of the other Ryan plan.

  • American exceptionalism: In a June 2011 foreign policy speech at the Alexander Hamilton Society, Ryan rejected isolationism and argued that "America is the greatest force for human freedom the world has ever seen," warning that "a world without U.S. leadership will be a more chaotic place." A firm believer in American exceptionalism, he agrees with columnist Charles Krauthammer that American decline "is a choice." The country's fiscal policy and foreign policy "are on a collision course," he explains, "and if we fail to put our budget on a sustainable path, then we are choosing decline as a world power."

  • China: Ryan appears to be less hardline and hawkish about China than Romney, who has pledged to designate Beijing as a currency manipulator on his first day in office. True, Ryan has shuddered at the idea of a world led by China and Russia and criticized China's restrictions on freedom of expression, "coercive population controls," and "unsound economic policies." But he's also argued that "we stand to benefit from a world in which China and other rising powers are integrated into the global order with increased incentives to further liberalize their political and economic institutions." 

  • BRICS: Ryan wants to forge better relations with the world's emerging economies -- particularly "the rising democratic powers of India and Brazil, which share many of our core principles and interests." America, he says, "must be willing to listen and accommodate their legitimate concerns as we preserve the framework of the international system and solidify our leadership within it." More generally, he charges the Obama administration with taking America's "allies for granted" and wants to revitalize those relationships. 

  • Arab Spring: Ryan has greeted the uprisings in the Middle East with the same mixture of praise and trepidation that several Republican presidential candidates have displayed this year. "We are seeing long-repressed populations give voice to the fundamental desire for liberty," he's observed, while adding ominously that in these societies "the most organized factions often lack tolerance and reject pluralism." It's too soon, he says, "to tell whether these revolutions will result in governments that respect the rights of their citizens, or if one form of autocracy will be supplanted by another."

  • Saudi Arabia: Ryan cites America's alliance with the Saudis as an example of when its interests run up against its ideals, and when "American policy should be tempered by a healthy humility about the extent of our power to control events in other regions." There are "voices in the Kingdom calling for reform," he notes. "We should help our allies effect a transition that fulfills the aspirations of their people."

  • Iraq/Afghanistan: Ryan believes that America's "ability to affect events is strongest in Iraq and Afghanistan," and that the United States can't cut and run from the battle against "global terrorism" in these countries. Ryan was an early supporter of the surge in Iraq. "This whole thing is a big gamble," he said in 2007. "But it's probably the best gamble to take before throwing in the towel and allowing sectarian genocide to take over." His estimate that America could save roughly $1 trillion over the next decade by winding down the wars was later adopted by congressional Democrats and the White House.   

  • Defense spending: Ryan's 99-page "Path to Prosperity" plan, released last month, provoked an outcry in calling for boosting military spending while slashing the international affairs budget -- funding for entities such as the State Department and USAID -- by nearly $5 billion. When Ryan said "we don't think the generals are giving us their true advice" in reference to the military budget, he was quick to walk back his comments. "I really misspoke," he explained.

  In the wake of Ryan's foreign policy address last year, Matthew Yglesias argued in the American Prospect that Ryan seemed to subscribe to "more or less the liberal internationalist vision that's already at the core" of the Obama administration's approach. The New Republic's Jonathan Chait mocked Ryan's "Norquistian-Churchillian foreign policy." The Washington Post's Jennifer Rubin wrote that Ryan was one of the few politicians who could draw a connection between "conservative economic principles and American foreign policy and values."

  Ryan's worldview, in other words, appears to be a bit of a Rorschach test. And in a general election where appealing solely to the Republican base just won't cut it, that might be exactly what Romney needs.

• Iran Watch: The 80/20 rule

  Posted: April 4, 2012, 2:43 am by Uri Friedman

  

  The "Pareto Principle" posits that, for many phenomena, 80 percent of output comes from 20 percent of input (you can apply this "80/20 rule" to everything from the large share of business a company derives from its small base of dedicated customers to, more depressingly, the short period of time you spend getting most of your work done at the office). 

  As the world's top powers prepare for nuclear talks with Iran in mid-April (today's over-heated sideshow: Iran is dithering about whether to hold the summit in Turkey, Iraq, or China), we should keep the 80/20 rule in mind. Particularly the fact that much of the initial disagreement between negotiators may stem from one thorny number: 20 percent.  

  On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak revealed that Israel is asking its allies to pressure Iran at the talks -- wherever they take place -- to transfer all uranium enriched to 20 percent to another country. "Israel is prepared to wait for the negotiations' results before it decides on a course of action," he explained. "It's not a matter of weeks, but not of years either."

  

  Iran meter: Barak may not have a difficult time convincing Western powers to pursue his goal. Greg Thielmann of the Arms Control Association recently told Reuters that the White House may focus "on halting 20 percent enrichment of uranium as a first-step confidence-building measure." (Other experts predict Washington's opening salvo will also include an attempt to suspend work at the Fordow enrichment facility.) 

  Why 20 percent in particular? "Nuclear bombs," Reuters explains, "require uranium enriched to 90 percent, but much of the effort required to get there is already achieved once it reaches 20 percent concentration, shortening the time needed for any nuclear weapons 'break-out.'" 

  But the 20 percent goal may be a hard sell. Iran began enriching uranium to 20 percent in 2010 -- after previously enriching it to the 3.5 percent level required to fuel nuclear power plants -- and it's been doing so in earnest. Tehran now has roughly 250 pounds of 20 percent enriched uranium and has nearly tripled the number of devices producing the higher grade uranium in the past three months, according to the Associated Press.

  And while Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad suggested in September that Tehran would stop refining uranium to 20 percent if it received fuel for a medical research reactor (which requires higher-level enrichment than power plants), there are signs that Iranian negotiators may be less amenable to such a fuel swap this time around. In March, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei boasted that Iran's 20 percent enrichment had "surprised the enemies," while the Iranian lawmaker Aladin Borujerdi declared that "the parliament will never allow the government to go back even one step in its nuclear policy."

  Sure, it could all be bluster. But we shouldn't underestimate the power of that 20 percent figure to cause big problems -- and undercut confidence before it has a chance to take root.

• A tale of two Mogadishus

  Posted: April 4, 2012, 6:15 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  In media, timing is key to breaking news and getting recognized for original journalism. But it can also sting you, as Vogue and Condé Nast Traveler learned during the Arab Spring after publishing, respectively, a glowing profile of Syrian first lady Asma al-Assad and a list of the "15 Best Places to See Right Now" that included Libya.

  Today, the New York Times fell victim to the timing trap. The paper led its print edition with a story by Jeffrey Gettleman entitled "A Taste of Hope in Somalia's Battered Capital," only for a suicide bomber to attack a gathering of Somali officials this morning in Mogadishu's National Theater, killing the heads of Somalia's Olympic committee and soccer federation, among others.

  Gettleman had even mentioned the National Theater in his piece (key lines in bold):

  Outside, on Mogadishu's streets, the thwat-thwat-thwat hammering sound that rings out in the mornings is not the clatter of machine guns but the sound of actual hammers. Construction is going on everywhere - new hospitals, new homes, new shops, a six-story hotel and even sports bars (albeit serving cappuccino and fruit juice instead of beer). Painters are painting again, and Somali singers just held their first concert in more than two decades at the National Theater, which used to be a weapons depot and then a national toilet. Up next: a televised, countrywide talent show, essentially "Somali Idol."

  Mogadishu, Somalia's capital, which had been reduced to rubble during 21 years of civil war, becoming a byword for anarchy, is making a remarkable comeback. The Shabab, the fearsome insurgents who once controlled much of the country, withdrew from the city in August and have been besieged on multiple sides by troops from the African Union, Kenya, Ethiopia and an array of local militias.

  Today the theater is a scene not of cultural renaissance but of carnage:

  

  Yet only weeks ago, when the theater was reopened, the atmosphere at the Chinese-built complex very much matched Gettleman's description:

  

  On Twitter, some people are tweaking the Times for being a bit trigger-happy on the optimism ("NYT story on #Somalia illustrates the danger of proclaiming peace in such places; new violence was bound to happen," argued the Atlantic Council's Barbara Slavin), while others are simply discouraged ("Wanted so badly to believe NYT's article on Somalia today," photographer Ed Suter wrote. "Guess it was a bit premature").

  The Times, for its part, has put the two stories into a dialogue of sorts on the World page.

  

  And it's worth pointing out that Gettleman tempered his report with the sober assessment that Mogadishu "and the rest of Somalia still have a long way to go," citing a recent attack on the presidential palace in the capital as just one example.

  "Who says it's just bad news coming out of Somalia?" Gettleman tweeted early this morning. Indeed, any positive news out of war-torn Somalia is welcome. In the news business, sadly, you can never pick the right day to highlight a heartwarming story.

• Morning Brief: Deadly theater blast targets Somali officials

  Posted: April 4, 2012, 3:28 pm by Uri Friedman

  Deadly theater blast targets Somali officials

  Top story: An attack by a female suicide bomber at the newly reopened National Theater in Mogadishu on Wednesday killed at least 10 people, including the heads of Somalia's Olympic committee and soccer federation, according to the BBC. AFP reports that the explosion took place as Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali was delivering a speech to mark the first anniversary of the country's satellite television network. The prime minister appears to have escaped unharmed.

  The Islamic militant group al-Shabab, which retreated from the Somali capital in August but has continued to carry out attacks on the presidential palace and other locations, claimed responsibility for today's bombing.

  The blast shatters a period of relative calm and cultural resurgence in Mogadishu -- one documented today by the New York Times in an article on the capital's "remarkable comeback." The Times notes that "Somali singers just held their first concert in more than two decades at the National Theater, which used to be a weapons depot and then a national toilet." Today it is a scene of carnage.

  Russia on Syria: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Western and Arab leaders of undermining Kofi Annan's peace plan in Syria by sending money and communications equipment to opposition fighters, who Lavrov said could not defeat the Syrian army even if they were "armed to the teeth." 

  Europe

  • French police detained 10 suspected Islamic militants in raids across France. 

  • Serbian President Boris Tadic is resigning so that he can seek reelection in May.

  • James Murdoch stepped down as chairman of BSkyB amid the ongoing phone hacking scandal.

  Asia

  • Afghanistan and the United States are close to striking a deal to continue night raids with more oversight by Afghan authorities, amid reports of deadly attacks against NATO troops and Afghans in the north. 

  • The first U.S. Marines are arriving in the northern Australian city of Darwin as part of Washington's pivot toward the Pacific region.

  • Southeast Asian leaders called on Western countries to lift sanctions on Myanmar after the country's recent by-elections.

  Middle East

  • Clashes between militias from rival towns in Western Libya killed at least 22 people.

  • Turkey has put the two surviving leaders of a 1980 military coup -- including former Turkish President Kenan Evren -- on trial.

  • The International Criminal Court declined a request by the Palestinian Authority to investigate alleged Israeli war crimes during the 2008 offensive against Hamas in Gaza. 

  Africa

  • Coup leaders in Mali proposed a national convention on the country's future and suggested they may charge the overthrown president with treason and financial misconduct. 

  • Thousands of protesters in Mauritania's capital demanded that the president resign and make way for democratic elections. 

  • The African National Congress has condemned expelled youth leader Julius Malema for calling South African President Jacob Zuma a "dictator." 

  Americas

  • Soldiers and police officers released by Colombia's FARC rebels are speaking out about their captivity.

  • The United Kingdom has sent its most powerful warship to the Falkland Islands on what British officials claim is a routine deployment.

  • Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won primaries in Wisconsin, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. 

  
  

  Stringer/AFP/Getty Images

• Iran Watch: War games or mind games?

  Posted: April 3, 2012, 12:35 am by Uri Friedman

  

  Ron Prosor, Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, may have told reporters on Friday that international sanctions have been "more effective than people think." But his prime minister -- a longtime sanctions skeptic -- struck a different tone today. The "sanctions are painful," Benjamin Netanyahu conceded, but they haven't yet produced a "halt or retreat in the Iranian nuclear program" or loosened the regime's "political grip."

  The comments came shortly after a report by Israel's Channel 10 on an Israeli military assessment that a three-week-long Iranian-led missile attack on Israel would produce fewer than 300 civilian casualities -- a lower estimate than Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's suggestion in November that fewer than 500 people would be killed in such an assault. Here's more from the Jerusalem Post:

  According to the estimates, described as a worst-case scenario, thousands of missiles would be launched toward Israel from Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza as part of the Iranian attack. The scenario took into account Israel's defenses as of 2012, with the Iron Dome rocket-defense system not yet at its full deployment.

  Missiles would also be launched at Israel from Iran, according to defense experts briefing the ministers, however, they added, Tehran's conventional missile capabilities are limited.

  To coincide with Netanyahu's press conference on Tuesday, the prime minister's office released an animated Passover-themed video touting his achievements, including the development of the Iron Dome (see 0:40, where a smiling Israel fends off scowling rockets with an umbrella):  

  

  Iran meter: In criticizing sanctions, Netanyahu may be emphasizing that Israel has not abandoned the military option -- particularly ahead of nuclear talks between Iran and the world's top powers this month. And Anshel Pfeffer at Haaretz thinks the military's casualty estimate may have become public for similar reasons.    

  "It would seem that the leaked briefing was put out by someone in the cabinet who is interested in allaying the Israeli public's fears of the repercussions of a military strike on Iran," he writes.

  If so, it's by no means certain that Israelis will take the bait. In a poll earlier this month by Tel Aviv University's Guttman Center, nearly 60 percent of respondents said they thought a retaliatory assault by Iran would cause more casualities than Barak's estimate of 500 civilians. (Israel's shortage of gas masks and bomb shelters surely hasn't bolstered confidence.)

  As tensions mount, so too have suspicions that Iran-related leaks by government officials -- whether via Bloomberg's report on Iran's elusive centrifuge "workshops" or the New York Times' report on a U.S. simulation of an Israeli strike -- are politically motivated. In leaking information to the media, Ron Ben-Yishai at Yedioth Ahronoth charged last week, the Obama administration has "shifted from persuasion efforts vis-à-vis decision-makers and Israel's public opinion to a practical, targeted assassination of potential Israeli operations in Iran."

  Whether or not these allegations have merit, one hopes that all the speculation about political posturing doesn't blunt the impact of legitimate risk assessments about the fallout from a conflict over Iran's nuclear program.

• Iran Watch: Oil, oil everywhere

  Posted: March 30, 2012, 11:00 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  With all the talk about an April 13 date being set for nuclear talks between Iran and the world's top powers, another important milestone got lost in the shuffle: today, March 30, when President Obama is required by a U.S. sanctions law to determine whether, as Reuters puts it, "the price and supply of non-Iranian oil are sufficient to allow consumers to 'significantly' cut their purchases from Iran." If the answer to that question is yes, then, beginning in June, the United States can proceed with its effort to isolate Tehran by sanctioning foreign banks that continue to purchase Iranian oil.

  Obama's conclusion? There may not be oil, oil everywhere, but there's enough of it to greenlight sanctions. The Associated Press has more:

  The president said he based his determination on global economic conditions, the level of spare oil capacity, and increased production by some countries, among other factors. He said he would keep monitoring the global market closely to ensure it can handle a reduction of oil purchases from Iran.

  With oil prices already rising this year amid rising tensions over the nuclear dispute between Iran and the West, U.S. officials have sought assurances that pushing countries to stop buying from Iran would not cause a further spike in prices.

  That's particularly important for Obama in an election year that has seen an increasing focus on gas prices.

  

  Iran meter: Obama's decision clears a path for the administration's aggressive sanctions strategy, which it favors over military conflict.

  But there's a wrinkle. Globalization has proven a double-edged sword for sanctions regimes. As scholars Steve Smith, Amelia Hadfield, and Tim Dunne note, an interdependent world economy can make countries more vulnerable to international sanctions. Yet globalization also means that countries facing sanctions can seek out alternative markets and suppliers.

  This reality has been on vivid display recently. Bloomberg takes a look today at how China and India are evading U.S. and EU financial sanctions by buying Iranian oil in exchange for local currencies or goods such as wheat, soybean meal, and consumer products. During a meeting in New Delhi this week, the BRICS group of emerging world powers -- Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa -- declared that they would continue trading with Iran in defiance of U.S. sanctions.

  This doesn't necessarily mean Western sanctions are doomed. Turkey, the fifth largest buyer of Iranian oil, announced today that it would cut imports of oil from Iran by a tenth in the face of U.S. pressure. And the Congressional Research Service's Kenneth Katzman tells Bloomberg that Iran's "junk-for-oil" program with countries such as China and India is economically unsustainable. "Iran cannot stabilize the value of its currency with such unorthodox payment methods," he explains.

  But the big question is whether, come June, the United States will actually sanction Chinese and Indian banks -- an action fraught with political landmines. Obama's announcement today doesn't get us much closer to answering that question.

  For more support for keeping the Iran meter at Natanz to Worry About, check out Amir Oren's argument for why Israel may be postponing an attack on Iran and Karl Vick's report on Israel's intelligence services scaling back covert operations inside Iran. (And for a gripping account of how an Israeli strike might play out, read Gary Sick.) 

  Note to readers: Earlier this month, I dismissed the importance of Azerbaijan's pledge to prevent any country from using its territory as a launching pad for an attack on Iran, arguing that Israel probably wouldn't strike Iran through its neighbor to the north anyway.

  This week, Mark Perry reported at Foreign Policy that Azerbaijan has granted Israel access to airbases near its border with Iran, which could heighten the prospect of an Israeli strike. Authorities in Azerbaijan have denied the allegations, and some others have expressed doubt that Israel would actually use Azeri airbases as part of an attack. But the report does raise the question of whether my headline -- "You can stop worrying about Azerbaijan" -- needs revising. 

• Morning Brief: Violence persists in Syria despite peace plan

  Posted: March 28, 2012, 3:12 pm by Uri Friedman

  Violence persists in Syria despite peace plan

  Top story: U.N. envoy Kofi Annan announced on Tuesday that Syria had accepted his proposal for a ceasefire ahead of peace talks between President Bashar al-Assad and his opponents, but activists are reporting today that Syrian forces are continuing their assault on opposition strongholds everywhere from Hama to Homs, which Assad toured on Tuesday.

  Meanwhile, at an Arab League summit in Baghdad, foreign ministers are also discussing ways to urge Syria to halt its crackdown on civilians and grant humanitarian groups access to the country. Syria's opposition groups coalesced around the umbrella Syrian National Council and expressed skepticism about the Syrian regime's commitment to peace during a meeting in Turkey on Tuesday, but signs of disunity remained. Kurdish delegates walked out of the conference, claiming their views were not being taken into account.

  In an interview with the BBC published on Wednesday, U.N. human rights chief Navi Pillay accused the Syrian government of systematically detaining and torturing children.   

  More asylum seekers: A new report by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has found that requests for asylum in industrialized countries rose last year by 20 percent to 441,300, fueled by the Arab Spring uprisings and the longstanding conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. 

  Middle East

  • Gunmen kidnapped a Saudi diplomat outside his home in the southern Yemeni city of Aden.

  • Tzipi Livni lost the leadership of Israel's centrist Kadima Party to rival Shaul Mofaz.

  • Clashes between rival militias in the southern Libyan city of Sabha left more than 30 people dead.

  Americas

  • As Pope Benedict XVI visited Cuba and met with President Raul Castro, a Cuban government minister declared that economic changes would not be accompanied by the political reforms that the Pope has advocated.

  • The United Nations is warning that hundreds of thousands of victims of Haiti's 2010 earthquake are at risk because of an aid shortfall.

  • Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez expressed displeasure with a U.S. State Department warning about violent crime in his country.

  Africa

  • The West African regional bloc ECOWAS suspended Mali after last week's military coup and is dispatching a delegation to the country, as coup leaders promise a new constitution and pledge to not stand in elections.

  • French judges have requested an international arrest warrant for the son of Equatorial Guinea's president on money-laundering charges.

  • Sudanese forces recaptured oil fields from South Sudanese troops.

  Europe

  • Poland's former intelligence chief has reportedly been charged with helping the CIA set up a secret prison for suspected al Qaeda members. 

  • A Jewish boy was assaulted near his school in Paris, raising concerns about more anti-Semitic attacks.

  • The French company operating an offshore platform in the North Sea said it could take six months to stop a gas leak that developed over the weekend.

  Asia

  • North Korea has reiterated its plan to launch a satellite into orbit next month despite warnings by world leaders at a nuclear summit in South Korea.

  • A Tibetan exile who set himself on fire in India amid a visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao has died.

  • An Australian newspaper reported that a News Corporation subsidiary had sabotaged competitors in the 1990s, prompting the Australian government to call for a criminal investigation.

  
  

  STR/AFP/Getty Images

• Iran Watch: What's with all the wheat?

  Posted: March 27, 2012, 1:00 am by Uri Friedman

  

  Sanctions-saddled Iran may be importing fewer BMWs than it used to, but recent reports suggest that it's voraciously raking in wheat. Today, Bloomberg highlights a pending deal to buy as much as 3 million metric tons of wheat from India, which is engaged in the high-wire act of trying to do business with Iran while maintaining good relations with the United States and Israel.

  Heck, Iran's even buying wheat from the United States (before 2008, when Iran bought U.S. wheat after suffering a drought, the country hadn't purchased U.S. wheat for nearly three decades):

  Some 120,000 tons of hard red winter wheat grown in the Plains is on its way to the Islamic Republic, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The sale of another 60,000 tons has been finalized, according to trade sources, and Iran may ultimately buy some 400,000 tons of U.S. wheat this year.

  Iran can import wheat from the United States and other countries because sanctions don't cover agricultural products. But why is Iran on a wheat shopping spree in the first place? After all, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has dubbed the new Iranian year the "Year of National Production" and argued that Iran can overcome sanctions by consuming domestic products. What's Iran up to with all the wheat?

  

  Iran meter: The short answer is we're not exactly sure. Iran may be stockpiling grain for reasons unrelated to sanctions to the specter of conflict (such as concerns about dry weather and the quality of the domestic wheat crop), but sanctions are most likely influencing the decision. And the aggressive purchases would seem to enhance Iran's ability to withstand the international isolation that President Obama is betting on to head off a military confrontation.

  Christopher Gadd of the Macquarie Group, for example, has noted that wheat imports may help Iran keep high food prices -- and especially bread prices -- from fueling Arab Spring-style unrest. The purchases also highlight the fact that Iran still has trading partners -- even if these relationships are increasingly predicated on complex barter deals such as sending Pakistan iron ore and fertilizer in exchange for wheat.

  But while sanctions don't technically apply to grain, they are making it difficult for Iran to finance imports of raw materials such as wheat, since many banks are reluctant to offer Iranian traders letters of credit (Turkish banks, among others, are stepping in to fill the void). Gadd tells Bloomberg that around 400,000 tons of mostly Russian and Ukrainian grain are currently idling outside Iranian ports for this very reason.

  Plus, the sanctions drumbeat continues, with the U.S. Senate now eyeing Iran's oil revenues. And while a report by Iran's Press TV today suggests that the energy sector is doing just fine -- the country's oil minister boasts of a world record in making "62 percent physical progress [in building a gas refinery] in 20 months" -- it's going to take a more momentous (and comprehensible) milestone to make a convincing case that Iran can weather a seemingly relentless barrage of sanctions.

• Morning Brief: Senegalese president concedes electoral defeat

  Posted: March 26, 2012, 3:16 pm by Uri Friedman

  Senegalese president concedes electoral defeat

  Top story: Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade, who has been in office since 2000, called opponent Macky Sall last night to congratulate him on his apparent win in Sunday's run-off presidential election. The head of the European Union's observer mission tells the BBC that Sall garnered around 65 percent of the vote compared with Wade's 35 percent.  

  The developments follow a heated race in which Wade's decision to seek a third term in defiance of constitutional term limits sparked violent protests and fears of political instability. As Mali reels from a successful coup, Senegal remains the only country in West Africa to have never experienced a military takeover.

  Sall, a former prime minister and protege of Wade, has pledged to enforce the two-term limit, empower the legislative and judicial branches, and boost agricultural production in a country battling rising unemployment. 

  Nuclear summit: Ahead of a nuclear security summit in Seoul, South Korea, U.S. President Barack Obama declared that Koreans are "one people" and challenged North Korea's leader to "have the courage to pursue peace," while renewing his pledge to pursue the goal of a world without nuclear weapons. The United States and China also agreed to coordinate their response to a proposed North Korean missile launch. 

  Asia

  • Hong Kong's Election Committee elected Leung Chun-ying, who has close ties with Beijing, as the territory's next chief executive. 

  • A man wearing an Afghan army uniform killed two NATO troops in southern Afghanistan.

  • Japan shut down another nuclear power station, leaving only one in operation.

  Europe

  • French authorities filed preliminary murder and terrorism charges against the older brother of Toulouse shooter Mohammed Merah, as President Nicolas Sarkozy announced that France will prohibit radical Muslim clerics from entering the country for a conference next month.

  • The British government has asked China to investigate the death of a British citizen with possible ties to ousted Communist Party official Bo Xilai. 

  • Spain's ruling Popular Party suffered a defeat in regional elections in Andalusia.

  Americas

  • During a visit to Mexico, Pope Benedict XVI spoke at an open-air Mass and a vespers ceremony but did not meet with victims of sexual abuse. 

  • Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez flew to Cuba for cancer treatment but does not appear to have scheduled a meeting with the visiting Pope.

  • The United States paid compensation to the families of the Afghan villagers who were killed and wounded by a U.S. soldier, as an Afghan official claimed the U.S. military will charge the soldier for the death of the unborn baby of one of the victims.  

  Middle East

  • Turkey and the United States have agreed to provide more "nonlethal" aid directly to opposition groups inside Syria.

  • Israel's Supreme Court ruled that a West Bank settlement built on private Palestinian land should be dismantled. 

  • Fighters from the Libyan town of Zintan attacked a Tripoli hotel frequented by members of the ruling National Transitional Council, who also admitted that a rival militia kidnapped two of its members last week.

  Africa

  • The leader of a coup in Mali claimed that he is in "total control of the country" and urged peace talks with Tuareg rebels.

  • The African Union is launching a military force to capture Ugandan warlord Joseph Kony.

  • Kenya's president says oil has been discovered in the country for the first time.

  
  

  Issouf Sanogo/AFP/Getty Images

• Iran Watch: Bunker-buster buildup

  Posted: March 22, 2012, 2:00 am by Uri Friedman

  

  President Obama often talks about all options being on the table when it comes to confronting Iran over its nuclear program, but what's going on underneath this most mysterious of tables? The United States is preparing for a possible military conflict with Iran, among other things.

  The Hill reports that top Republicans on the House Armed Services Committee are spearheading an effort to divert defense dollars in the upcoming fiscal 2013 budget toward weapons systems and programs that could be used in a confrontation with Tehran. 

  Committee Chairman Buck McKeon (R-Calif.) has previously said he will seek "things like powerful bunker-busting munitions, countermeasures for mines, and appropriate sensor and intelligence platforms." Earlier this month, an Air Force general declared that a new 30,000-pound bunker-buster bomb that can penetrate 200 feet of concrete would be a "great weapon" again Iran. The fearsome and appropriate name of the beast? The Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb.

  

  Iran meter: The congressional funding effort isn't the only indication that the U.S. military is preparing for a potential showdown with Iran. The U.S. Navy has doubled the number of mine-hunting vessels in the Persian Gulf and equipped its warships with Gatling guns, according to The Hill.

  Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported that U.S. Central Command is beefing up its military capabilities against Iran by "fielding new laser target-trackers for machine guns, enhanced sensors for underwater vehicles, improved protection against drone attacks, and upgrades of U-2 spy planes" through "reprogramming" requests. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta says the Pentagon is exploring several military options.

  Sure, it's not particularly surprising that the U.S. military is engaging in contingency planning. But Obama has emphatically dismissed the idea of containing a nuclear Iran, and a U.S. war game this month highlighted what U.S. officials already knew all too well -- that a unilitaral Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities could spark a regional war. If the United States concludes that sanctions have failed to blunt the Iranian nuclear threat and that an Israeli strike is too dangerous, we could be hearing a lot more about that Massive Ordnance Penetrator.

• Iran Watch: Is the United States waivering?

  Posted: March 21, 2012, 2:09 am by Uri Friedman

  

  The United States is betting that increasingly biting sanctions against Tehran -- including new penalties for foreign institutions that continue to buy Iranian oil through its central bank -- can compel Iranian leaders to make concessions on their nuclear program and avert a military confrontation.

  So the news yesterday that the Obama administration was issuing Japan and 10 European nations six-month waivers from these very sanctions seemed odd -- as if the United States was taking its foot off the gas pedal just ahead of nuclear talks with Iran next month. In fact, that's exactly how Iranian officials are spinning the news. Here's a read of the Iranian press today from the Los Angeles Times:

  Fars News headlined its story on the sanctions, "U.S.A. backs down against Iran."

  "Such a move is an overt retreat from their earlier stances," the head of the parliament foreign policy commission, Aladin Borujerdi, told the Iranian Students News Agency. He said it was "due to decisive stances taken by the Islamic Republic" defending its nuclear program.

  Borujerdi also argued that the U.S. had exempted the countries to stop oil prices from rising further, a bid to spare "the tumbling economies of the West."

  "Exempting 11 countries show that sanctions were the results of impulsive decisions," Kazam Jalali, the Iranian deputy head of national security, told ISNA.

  

  Iran meter: If the United States is indeed watering down its sanction effort to avoid destabilizing the global oil market and alienating its allies, that could heighten the risk of a military confrontation and push our dial to the right. But Iranian officials may be misreading the situation, deliberately or not.

  For one thing, the United States is granting the 11 countries exemptions because they have significantly cut their purchases of Iranian oil -- not because they refused to budge on their commercial dealings with Iran and Washington backed down. True, Japan, a top Iranian oil importer, has been vague about how far it's willing to go to wean itself off Iranian crude, but its oil imports from Iran fell 12 percent in January compared with a year earlier -- even as it struggled to recover from last year's earthquake and nuclear crisis. The ten European nations who received waivers had already agreed to stop importing Iranian oil beginning in July.

  What's more, the exemptions don't apply to China and India, which, along with Japan, buy roughly half of Iran's crude exports. And while the Chinese and Indians haven't yet turned their backs on Iran, they're not embracing Tehran either. China's largest bank recently backed out of a deal to finance an Iran-to-Pakistan gas pipeline, and China's imports of Iranian oil dropped by 45 percent in February from a month earlier, though this mainly stemmed from a business dispute. 

  This week's exemptions also omitted Turkey and South Korea -- two U.S. allies who also happen to consume a lot of Iranian oil. "It is out of the question for us to stop buying oil from Iran unless the supply is replaced," Turkey's energy minister declared today.

  In other words, if you want to get a sense of whether the sanctions regime U.S. officials are constructing will work, don't focus on the list of countries who now have exemptions. Keep your eye on those that didn't make the cut.

• Romney struggles to court Swedish vote

  Posted: March 21, 2012, 7:54 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney may be riding high after his convincing win in the Illinois primary, but he's still getting the cold shoulder from one demographic group: Swedes.

  On Tuesday, Sweden's The Local highlighted a new survey by the Swedish arm of the online polling firm YouGov, which found that 74 percent of Swedes would vote for President Obama over either Romney or Rick Santorum. Eighty percent of Danish respondents and 73 percent of Norwegian respondents said they'd choose Obama over Romney, while British respondents endorsed Obama at a less enthusiastic 58 percent. (A separate study by a YouGov affiliate found that 60 percent of British "influentials" believe Obama is better than his Republican challengers for British interests.)  

  Swedes aren't just more receptive to Obama -- they're actively concerned about what a Republican return to the White House could mean for the world. Fifty-two percent said an Obama loss could negatively affect global security, compared with 49 percent in Denmark, 47 percent in Norway, and 33 percent in the United Kingdom. Roughly a third of respondents in each country are worried that a GOP victory could negatively affect Europe's economy and foreign policy.

  YouGov also found that Norwegians, Danes, and Swedes are intensely following news about the U.S. presidential election -- so much so that, according to one estimate by a media monitoring service, 498 articles about the American contest have appeared in the Swedish press this year, compared with a mere 107 on the already completed elections in neighboring Finland.

  That generally liberal Northern Europe is enamored with Obama may not be all that surprising. And Romney hasn't exactly endeared himself to the region by accusing the president of wanting to turn America into a "European-style entitlement society." 

  But while Swedes may not have a vote in the election, overseas perceptions of U.S. presidential contests can matter. Obama's campaign speech before an adoring crowd in Berlin was a major storyline during the 2008 race. In a Foreign Policy article last week, Oliver Kamm argued that David Cameron's recent visit to Washington suggests that the British prime minister is already betting on Obama winning reelection. Today on the site, Tom Ricks wonders whether Saudi efforts to stabilize the oil market amount to a "vote" for Obama.

  The YouGov survey isn't the only polling indicating that Obama is wildy popular in Northern and Western Europe -- significantly more popular, in fact, than he is at home. But how about elsewhere in the world? Pew's 2010 Global Attitudes Project report offers the most comprehensive data here. Majorities or pluralities in 16 of the 22 countries surveyed expressed at least some confidence in Obama to "do the right thing regarding world affairs," but only in Kenya and Nigeria -- the two African countries surveyed -- did Obama enjoy Western Europe-level adoration. U.S. allies such as Japan (76 percent), South Korea (75 percent), and India (73 percent) also expressed high levels of support.

  But powerful U.S. frenemies such as China (52 percent) and Russia (41 percent) gave Obama an icier response, as did predominantly Muslim countries such as Egypt (33 percent), Jordan (26 percent), and Turkey (23 percent) -- a reality that Obama's handling of the Arab Spring did not alter.

  Obama's poorest showing in 2010? Pakistan, where only 8 percent of respondents expressed at least some confidence in him. The good news for the president? We imagine Mitt Romney wouldn't fare any better.

• Morning Brief: Police corner suspect in French school shooting

  Posted: March 21, 2012, 2:56 pm by Uri Friedman

  Police corner suspect in French school shooting

  Top story: French police have surrounded a residence in Toulouse and are now negotiating with a man suspected of killing three children and a rabbi at a Jewish school on Monday and three soldiers of North African origin last week. French Interior Minister Claude Gueant has identified the man as a 24-year-old French citizen of Algerian descent named Mohammed Merah who had already been under surveillance before the school shooting.

  The suspect, who has reportedly agreed to turn himself in after initially firing at police officers, says he belongs to al Qaeda and carried out the attacks to avenge the deaths of Palestinian children and oppose France's overseas military operations. French officials say Merah has made trips to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

  The victims of this week's school shooting were buried today in Israel, where outrage has erupted over remarks in which EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton appeared to draw a comparison between the killing of three Jewish children in Toulouse and the death of Palestinian children in Gaza.    

  Iran sanctions: The Obama administration exempted Japan and 10 European nations from sanctions designed to penalize countries that are still buying oil from Iran, but left out major consumers of Iranian oil such as China and India. On Wednesday, Turkey's energy minister suggested that his country could still get a waiver.

  Africa

  • Somali pirates freed British hostage Judith Tebbutt more than six months after kidnapping her in Kenya.

  • A new U.N. report says Congolese security forces carried out killings and arbitrary arrests after elections last year.

  • A car bomb exploded in the Somali capital of Mogadishu.

  Middle East

  • Amid reports of Syrian forces using tanks and helicopters against rebels outside Damascus, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned that the violence in Syria "has potentially massive repercussions."

  • Al Qaeda has claimed responsibility for a wave of attacks in Iraq that killed 46 people on Tuesday.

  • Mauritania appears to have agreed "in principle" to hand over Muammar al-Qaddafi's spy chief to Libya. 

  Asia

  • The Chinese Justice Ministry has ordered lawyers to pledge allegiance to the Communist Party.

  • Myanmar reportedly invited the United States and the European Union to send observers to its elections in April.  

  • U.S. Gen. John Allen said he would not be recommending an accelerated Afghan drawdown in light of mounting tensions with Afghanistan.

  Europe

  • A bomb exploded outside the Indonesian embassy in Paris, causing no casualties.

  • A Dutch newspaper has uncovered evidence suggesting that the Dutch Roman Catholic Church castrated up to ten young men in the 1950s.

  • A Russian court dismissed an appeal to ban an edition of the Hindu holy book Bhagvad Gita.

  Americas

  • A 7.4-magnitude earthquake in Mexico has damaged hundreds of home but does not appear to have caused any deaths.

  • A Guatemalan court sentenced five former members of right-wing paramilitaries to a total of 7,710 years in jail. 

  • Mitt Romney comfortably beat Rick Santorum in the Illinois primary.

  
  

  Getty Images

• Iran Watch: In the zone?

  Posted: March 19, 2012, 3:08 am by Uri Friedman

  

  There are times when the United States and Israel seem miles apart on the question of how to confront Iran over its nuclear program. As in when President Obama talked about wielding "crippling sanctions" and diplomacy when meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this month, while Netanyahu never mentioned sanctions and instead emphasized that Israel must remain the "master of its fate."

  But over the weekend, the New York Times reported that Israeli and American intelligence officials may agree on more than we think:

  Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful civilian purposes, but American intelligence agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency have picked up evidence in recent years that some Iranian research activities that may be weapons-related have continued since 2003, officials said. That information has not been significant enough for the spy agencies to alter their view that the weapons program has not been restarted.

  Mossad, Israel's intelligence service, agrees with the American intelligence assessments, even while Israeli political leaders have been pushing for quick, aggressive action to block Iran from becoming what they describe as an existential threat to the Jewish state.

  The Associated Press has a similar report:

  Despite saber rattling from Jerusalem, Israeli officials now agree with the U.S. assessment that Tehran has not yet decided on the actual construction of a nuclear bomb, according to senior Israeli government and defense figures.

   

  

  Iran meter: If Israel shares America's view that Iran hasn't yet decided to built nuclear nuclear weapons, does that decrease the likelihood of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities? Not necessarily.

  In Israel, the debate over a strike is less about whether Iran has decided to build nuclear weapons and more about whether it is on the verge of having the technological capability to do so, or reaching a point where an Israeli attack couldn't meaningfully disrupt the country's (increasingly fortified and underground) nuclear program.

  Just today, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned that Iran's nuclear program "is steadily approaching maturation and is verging on a 'zone of immunity' -- a position from which the Iranian regime could complete its program without effective disruption, at its convenience."

  In an article for the New York Times in January, Ronen Bergman highlighted where Israel and the United States diverge on this issue:

  Israel estimates that Iran's nuclear program is about nine months away from being able to withstand an Israeli attack; America, with its superior firepower, has a time frame of 15 months....

  The Israelis suspect that the Obama administration has abandoned any aggressive strategy that would ensure the prevention of a nuclear Iran and is merely playing a game of words to appease them. The Israelis find evidence of this in the shift in language used by the administration, from "threshold prevention" -- meaning American resolve to stop Iran from having a nuclear-energy program that could allow for the ability to create weapons -- to "weapons prevention," which means the conditions can exist, but there is an American commitment to stop Iran from assembling an actual bomb.

  Today's news, in other words, does little to muffle the drumbeats of war. But other developments large and small on Monday -- Israeli President Shimon Peres and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wishing Iranians a happy Persian new year, Iranians and Israelis engaging in an improbable love fest on Facebook,  the New York Times reporting on a U.S. war game that highlighted the geopolitical dangers of an Israeli strike on Iran -- offer us some reassurance that, at least for today, we have Natanz to Worry About.

• Morning Brief: Violence rocks Damascus

  Posted: March 19, 2012, 2:33 pm by Uri Friedman

  Violence rocks Damascus

  Top story: Syrian rebels are engaged today in some of the heaviest fighting yet with security forces in Damascus, according to opposition activists. Witnesses say the violence erupted in the capital's al-Mezze district, which is near several security buildings.

  The clashes come two days after twin explosions at the criminal police headquarters and an air security intelligence center in Damascus killed at least 27 people, according to Syrian officials. On Sunday, a deadly car bomb exploded in Syria's commercial capital of Aleppo, which has remained relatively quiet during the uprising.

  The New York Times contrasts these developments with the brief detentions on Sunday in Damascus of demonstrators calling for nonviolence and dialogue with the government. "Some activists are increasingly concerned that the bombings, for which no one has claimed responsibility, play into efforts by the government to portray its opponents as foreign-inspired terrorists -- or worse, that they signal that foreign militants with their own goals are inserting themselves into the conflict," the paper writes.   

  Shooting in France: An unidentified gunman on a scooter opened fire on a Jewish school in the city of Toulouse on Monday, killing at least three children and an adult. The incident comes only days after a man on a scooter killed three soldiers in the same part of France.

  Middle East

  • Libya is demanding the extradition of Muammar al-Qaddafi's former intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senussi after his arrest in Mauritania.

  • Egypt's Coptic Christians are mourning the death of their leader, Pope Shenouda III.

  • Gunmen in the Yemeni city of Taiz killed an American teacher working for a missionary organization.

  Asia

  • Indonesian police say they killed five militants suspected of plotting attacks in Bali.

  • King George Tupou V of Tonga, 63, died in a Hong Kong hospital.

  • East Timor's President Jose Ramos-Horta has conceded defeat in the first round of the country's presidential election.

  Europe

  • Greece Socialists elected Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos as their leader ahead of parliamentary elections.

  • Belarus executed two men convicted of bombing a subway station amid international skepticism about their guilt.

  • Joachim Gauck, a former Lutheran pastor and human rights activist, was elected as Germany's president.

  Americas

  • Cuban police arrested dozens of activists ahead of Pope Benedict XVI's visit to the country.

  • Around 2,000 Venezuelan women are threatening mass lawsuits for faulty breast implants.

  • New personal details are emerging about Staff Sergeant Robert Bales, who is accused of killing 16 Afghan civilians on March 11.

  Africa

  • A mortar attack on Somalia's presidential palace killed at least six people in a nearby refugee camp.

  • Guinea-Bissau held presidential elections just months after the death of President Malam Bacai Sanha.

  • A Muslim cleric mediating peace talks between the Nigerian government and the Islamist militant group Boko Haram has quit the negotiations.

  
  

  Louai Beshara/AFP/Getty Images

• Iran Watch: Israel and Iran agree: Open SESAME

  Posted: March 15, 2012, 12:06 am by Uri Friedman

  

  Today's news paints a picture of an Iran increasingly hemmed in by sanctions. SWIFT, a Belgium-based organization that facilitates banking transactions, announced that it will block Iranian banks targeted by EU sanctions, effectively cutting Iran off from the global financial system. Reuters reports that Iran has been frantically stockpiling wheat to blunt the impact of sanctions, while the Obama administration is threatening to impose sanctions on India if it keeps buying Iranian oil. These developments have been accompanied by spurts of tough talk from Tehran; Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, for instance, declared that an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear sites would spell "the end of the Jewish state."

  And yet, out of the headlines of isolation, comes a surprising glimmer of cooperation: Israel and Iran are actually collaborating on something. Haaretz reports:   

  In an extraordinary act of regional cooperation, Israel, Iran, Jordan, and Turkey are to jointly provide funds for a particle accelerator as part of their commitment to a UNESCO-sponsored scientific project, it was announced on Wednesday.

  Each of the four countries has pledged $5 million toward the SESAME facility, which is being built near Amman. SESAME stands for Synchrotron-light for Experimental Science and Applications in the Middle East. According to the UNESCO website, the project aims to "foster scientific and technological excellence in the Middle East and neighboring countries (and prevent or reverse brain drain) by enabling world-class research," and to "build scientific and cultural bridges between neighboring countries."

  If the $100 million SESAME center, which is slated to go online in 2015, succeeds, the Middle East will get its first synchrotron.

   

  

  Iran meter: Could science be both central to the nuclear dispute and key to resolving it peacefully? Sadly, the SESAME project has been as much a source of tension as teamwork. Last year, the Financial Times noted that two Iranian scientists who had worked at the center -- Massoud Ali Mohammadi and Majid Shahriari  -- had died under mysterious circumstances in the course of a year.

  Some speculate that their involvement in SESAME "exposed the scientists to suspicion that they were complicit in sabotaging Iran's nuclear program," the FT explained. "In Tehran's political and diplomatic circles, the killing of Ali Mohammadi was seen as a possible act of revenge by the regime" (at the time of Ali Mohammadi's death, an Iranian researcher who was also involved in the project maintained that there were no direct meetings between his delegation and the Israelis). Iranian news outlets and officials blamed both deaths on Israel and the West.

  Beyond particle physics, Israeli-Iranian contacts are very limited, but they're not nonexistent. Last May, Ynet reported that dozens of Israeli companies trade with Iran secretly through third parties in countries such as Dubai, Jordan, and Turkey. 

  Israeli exports to Iran focus on agricultural production means: Organic fertilizers, pierced irrigation pipes, hormones boosting milk productions, and seeds.

  The Iranians sell the Israelis pistachio, cashew nuts, and mainly marble -- one of Iran's biggest industries.

  The news today about cooperation on SESAME is heartening, of course. But we have a long way to go between particles and peace.

• Iran Watch: Window of Opportunity

  Posted: March 14, 2012, 1:42 am by Uri Friedman

  

  On Wednesday, President Obama warned that the window for resolving the dispute over Iran's nuclear program "diplomatically is shrinking." Luckily, Iran appears to be poking its head through that very window. Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili has welcomed a resumption of talks between his country and the so-called "P5+1 -- Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United States. Here's Iran's Fars News Agency:

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  He further called for constructive, serious and prerequisite-free talks for steady cooperation, and asked the EU foreign policy chief to remain loyal to the contents of her letter in this regard.

  The Iranian top negotiator also demanded the Group 5+1 to show a constructive approach towards talks based on preserving Iran's nuclear rights in accordance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and also asked for holding negotiations on a steady and progressive trend.

  Iran and the G5+1 are still in discussion over the date and venue for the next round of their talks.

   

  

  Iran meter: There are, of course, numerous reasons to dismiss today's development. Western powers suspect Iran is simply buying time with the talks and blame the collapse of negotiations in Istanbul in January 2011 on Iran refusing to substantively engage on the nuclear issue.

  More to the point, Western powers want Iran to stop enriching uranium as a precondition to talks, while Iranian officials insist they will not negotiate on their right to enrich uranium. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton wants Iran to embrace confidence-building measures such as granting inspectors more access to its nuclear facilities, while Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency says agreeing to talk about the country's nuclear program "by itself is confidence-building."

  The BBC's James Reynolds points out that the most recent talks in Geneva and Istanbul "were essentially parallel monologues," and that Iran's agreement in 2009 to export low-enriched uranium in exchange for reactor fuel was never implemented. Still, he notes that Western officials see Jalili's reference to the nuclear issue this time around as evidence that Iran may finally be serious about dialogue.

  And in a grim showdown between Iran and the West that rarely produces good news, Obama making a last-ditch plea for diplomacy and Iran welcoming talks constitutes a pretty good day.

• Morning Brief: U.S. defense secretary visits a tense Afghanistan

  Posted: March 14, 2012, 2:57 pm by Uri Friedman

  U.S. defense secretary visits a tense Afghanistan

  Top story: U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta began an unannounced visit to Afghanistan on Wednesday, only days after an American soldier killed 16 Afghan civilians. Ahead of the trip, which officials say was planned months ago, Panetta argued that the United States should continue pursuing its strategy in Afghanistan despite these kinds of tragic events. He's slated to meet with Afghan President Hamid Karzai but won't travel to the Panjwai district in the southern province of Kandahar where the killing took place.

  The visit comes a day after militants attacked an Afghan government delegation attending a memorial service in the village where the U.S. soldier went on his shooting spree. That same day, U.S. President Barack Obama promised a thorough investigation into the incident.

  While Afghan lawmakers are demanding that the U.S. soldier be prosecuted in Afghanistan under Afghan law, NATO officials say no decision has been made about the location of a trial and that the soldier would be tried under U.S. laws. Afghan officials have reportedly been shown security camera footage of the soldier surrendering to prove he was acting alone, according to Reuters.

  Landmark legal decision: The International Criminal Court has found Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga guilty of recruiting and using child soldiers, in the court's first ever verdict and first trial focusing on the use of child soldiers. Lubanga, who can appeal the verdict, could face life imprisonment. 

  Europe

  • At least 28 people died when a bus carrying Belgian school children crashed in Switzerland.

  • Belgian authorities are blaming an arson attack on a Shiite mosque outside Brussels on tensions between Shiites and Sunnis.

  • French President Nicolas Sarkozy has advanced in the polls after a speech calling for tougher immigration rules and pledging support for French industry.

  Middle East

  • The Syrian military is continuing its assault on Idlib and other parts of the country after the release of a report documenting "systemic torture" in the country.

  • Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is appearing before lawmakers to answer questions on economic mismanagement.

  • A court in Algiers has sentenced an Algerian al Qaeda leader to death in absentia.

  Asia

  • Kyrgyz officials have requested that a U.S. air base in the country -- a key hub for the war in Afghanistan -- have no military role when its lease expires in 2014.

  • Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao warned that the country could return to the chaos of the Cultural Revolution if the Communist Party doesn't embark on political and economic reform.

  • A Malaysian official says a terrorist reportedly killed by the Philippine military is still alive.

  Americas

  • The Supreme Court in Argentina has decriminalized abortion in rape cases.

  • Brazilian prosecutors are preparing the first charges against a military officer from the 1964-1985 military dictatorship.

  • Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum won the Alabama and Mississippi primaries.

  Africa

  • A suicide attack inside a government compound in Somalia's capital killed three people.

  • The African Union says Sudan and South Sudan have reached a deal to give their citizens basic freedoms.

  • Gunmen killed 19 passengers on a public bus in Ethiopia.

  
  

  Scott Olson/Getty Images

• Iran Watch: You can stop worrying about Azerbaijan

  Posted: March 13, 2012, 11:11 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  February was not a good month for Azeri-Iranian relations. Iran accused Azerbaijan (mapped on right) of helping Israeli spies who were targeting Iranian scientists, while Azerbaijan raised hackles in Tehran by reportedly buying $1.6 billion worth of drones and anti-aircraft and missile defense systems from Israel. Earlier in the month, some Azeri lawmakers even suggested changing the country's name to Northern Azerbaijan to highlight the fact that the Azeri nation is divided between an independent state and a province in northern Iran.

  So it's surprising to see reports in the Iranian press today of Azeri Defense Minister Safar Abiyev's warm reception in Tehran. Most notably, Abiyev promised to prevent any country from using Azerbaijan as a launching pad for an attack on neighboring Iran, according to Iran's Fars News Agency:

  "The Republic of Azerbaijan, like always in the past, will never permit any country to take advantage of its land, or air, against the Islamic Republic of Iran, which we consider our brother and friend country," he underscored.

   

  

  Iran meter: Is an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities now less likely, with Azerbaijan out of play? Not exactly. True, Azerbaijan may be a theater in a larger Israeli-Iranian shadow conflict (in February, Azerbaijan claimed to have broken up an Iranian plot against Israeli targets in the capital, Baku). But Azerbaijan doesn't figure into discussions of how Israel might strike Iran.

  As the Associated Press notes this week, Israel is probably weighing three risky flight paths to Iran through Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, or Turkey (for some great graphics on these scenarios, see here and here):

  The shortest, most direct flight would be to cross over neighboring Jordan and through Iraq.

  Neither country has the capability to stop Israeli warplanes from crossing through its airspace. But this would deeply embarrass them.

  Such an operation would raise the likelihood of a diplomatic spat with Jordan, Israel's closest ally in the Arab world, and potentially expose it to Iranian retaliation. Jordanian officials refused to comment on how the government would react if Israel uses its airspace.

  A second route would be to fly south and through Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have no relations with Israel, and while they feel deeply threatened by a nuclear Iran, any signs of cooperation with the Jewish state would unleash fierce criticism throughout the Arab world. The Saudis would also be an easy target for an Iranian counter-strike.

  The last possibility would be crossing through Turkey, as Israel illicitly did in the 2007 airstrike in Syria. But Turkey is believed to have upgraded its radar systems since then, and Israel's relations with Turkey, once a close ally, have deteriorated.

  A Turkish official said it was "out of the question" for Israel to use Turkish airspace. He said the jets would be "brought down" if Israel attempted to use the airspace without permission. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly on the matter.

  In sum, the Azeri defense minister's statements do more to patch up relations with Tehran than change the calculus about an Israeli strike.

  For added reassurance, see Britain's decision to join the United States in discouraging  war talk and these op-eds today on why U.S. President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be bluffing with their tough rhetoric on Iran. For now, the war dial is staying exactly where it is.

• Iran Watch: The bratwurst effect

  Posted: March 12, 2012, 12:22 am by Uri Friedman

  

  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is making headlines for declaring over the weekend that Tehran does not fear Western military action. "You say to Iran all options are on the table," he noted. "Leave them there until they rot." It's the most creative reinterpretation of the "all options are on the table" diplomatic speak since Mitt Romney's line about military options being "not just on the table" but "in our hand." Frankly, the metaphor is starting to spiral out of control.

  But the behind-the-scenes storyline today involves fresh information about the effectiveness of the sanctions arrayed against Iran. Saudi Arabia announced that it will (reluctantly) fill any gap in world oil markets created by the sanctions regime, while Western powers are criticizing countries such as India, Pakistan, and Turkey for continuing to engage commercially with Iran. AFP has a good summary of India's predicament, as a major Indian trade delegation visits Tehran:

  The mission sees India walking a diplomatic tightrope as it seeks more business from Iran while managing a growing partnership with the United States and maintaining good relations with Israel, a key arms supplier....

  Iran is India's second-largest oil supplier after Saudi Arabia, and while India has diversified to cut its dependence on the country in recent years, New Delhi says replacement of "all Iranian oil imports" is not "a realistic option."

  But the most bizarre report on the consequences of sanctions against Iran comes courtesy of USA Today, which serves up a report from Germany on the rising price of bratwurst, which is made with sheep intestines imported from Iran:

  Some suggest Iran is intentionally punishing Germany with the shortage. Rainer Heimler, president of the Society for the Protection of Nuremberg Bratwurst, which defends the good name of the sausage from the low-quality imitations, said he doubts the connection between politics and bratwurst inflation.

  "I cannot imagine that as revenge on Europe, Iran might refuse to deliver intestines to prevent the Germans from eating bratwurst," Heimler said.

  The larger point in the bratwurst article is that sanctions are stoking destabilizing inflation in Iran. The Financial Times points out that a declining Iranian rial has dealt a substanial blow to Iranian consumer demand. "Iran, struggling to do business in dollars, now advocates a mix of barter deals and non-dollar transactions," the paper adds.

   

  

  Iran meter: So, could sanctions-induced economic instablity in Iran sink the Iranian regime without the need for a military confrontation, as the Washington Post's David Ignatius suggested on Friday? We probably can't conclude that yet. Iran, after all, still has trading partners, and there are few concrete signs that a regime implosion is imminent. As the Wall Street Journal reported from Tehran over the weekend, Iranians may be struggling with economic hardship, but few "see themselves taking to the streets, even if things get much worse. 'We have to keep going,' says one merchant in a neighborhood shopping district. 'People here are boiling, but don't make a sound.'"

  In the meantime, keep your eye on the price of bratwurst.

• Morning Brief: U.S. soldier's attack on Afghan civilians sparks outrage

  Posted: March 12, 2012, 3:15 pm by Uri Friedman

  U.S. soldier's attack on Afghan civilians sparks outrage

  Top story: A U.S. Army sergeant killed at least 16 civilians, including nine children, in southern Afghanistan on Sunday, stoking outrage among Afghans already angered by the burning of a Koran at a NATO base and the release of a video showing American Marines urinating on dead militants. The identity of the soldier, who is now in U.S. custody, has yet to be released, and his motives are unknown. U.S. troops in Afghanistan have been placed on alert amid fear of reprisals.

  The New York Times notes that mounting public anger in Afghanistan could deal a blow to the Obama administration's plans for transferring responsibility to Afghan forces and negotiating with the Taliban, which has vowed revenge for Sunday's shooting spree. "The fear," an American military official explains, "is that all these incidents, taken together, play into the Taliban's account of how we treat the Afghan religion and people." Reuters adds that Sunday's attack could torpedo talks on a long-term American presence in Afghanistan.  

  President Barack Obama phoned Afghan President Hamid Karzai to express his condolences, and called the incident "tragic and shocking" in a statement. Karzai, for his part, said the killings could "not be forgiven."

  Israeli airstrikes: Israeli raids in Gaza reportedly killed two Palestinian militants and a schoolboy on Monday in a fourth day of fighting. The violence, which has killed 21 Palestinians, began on Friday when an Israeli airstrike killed a militant commander in Gaza City, prompting militant groups to fire rockets toward Israel. In the West Bank, meanwhile, Jewish settlers agreed to evacuate an illegal outpost.

  Middle East

  • U.N. envoy Kofi Annan left Syria without securing a deal to end the violence in the country, as activists reported that dozens of people had been killed in Homs and Idlib.  

  • Egypt's parliament has launched a process to withdraw confidence from the military-appointed government, and is considering a vote on ending U.S. aid.

  • An Egyptian military court acquitted an army doctor accused of performing forced "virginity tests."  

  Asia

  • A section of a high-speed rail line in China's Hubei province collapsed after heavy rain.

  • Japan marked the anniversary of its devastating earthquake and tsunami.

  • China recorded its largest trade deficit in at least a decade in February.

  Africa

  • A deadly suicide bombing at a Catholic church in the Nigerian city of Jos has sparked reprisal attacks against Muslims.

  • Kenyan police have arrested suspects in a grenade attack in Nairobi over the weekend.

  • The United States pulled out of an investment conference in Sudan in protest over Sudan's crackdown on rebels.

  Europe

  • Robert Fico's left-wing Smer-Social Democracy party won decisively in Slovakia's parliamentary election.

  • Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos will run unopposed for the leadership of the Socialists in the country's parliamentary election later this spring. 

  • French President Nicolas Sarkozy warned that he would withdraw from the European Union's open borders agreement unless more is done to combat illegal immigration.

  Americas

  • El Salvador's conservative opposition party appears poised for a slim victory in the country's general election.

  • Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez says he'll return from Cuba in a week and begin radiation therapy for cancer.

  • Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's popularity has fallen to a 13-month low as economic growth slows. 

  
  

  Mamoon Durrani/AFP/Getty Images

• Iran Watch: Bibi's Iran stopwatch

  Posted: March 9, 2012, 12:41 am by Uri Friedman

  

  The debate over whether Israel will strike Iran's nuclear facilities is awash in deadlines, some of which have already come and gone. On Thursday night, Benjamin Netanyahu added his voice to the mix. "We're not standing with a stopwatch in hand," the Israeli prime minister and sanctions skeptic explained in his first interviews since returning from Washington this week. "It's not a matter of days or weeks, but also not of years."

  The takeaway? Netanyahu conveniently skipped over one popular unit of time: months. Hence headlines today like "Netanyahu: Strike on Iran's Nuclear Facilities Possible Within Months."

  The troubling talk of months-long timelines coincided with some unsettling rhetoric from past and current U.S. officials. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta noted that the Pentagon has been preparing various military options for striking Iran "for a long time," while an Air Force general boasted of a 30,000-pound bunker-busting bomb that could be a "great weapon" in a clash with Iran. Former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen darkly observed that when it comes to Iran, there's no Red Phone. Politico reports:

  "I am concerned because we have had no effective communication with the Iranians since 1979," the retired Navy admiral said at the CERAWeek energy conference here. "Even in the darkest moments of the Cold War, we had several lines of communications with the Soviets. Even when we could completely disagree -- which we did on many things -- we had relationships."

  "We have none of those with the Iranians," he added. "So I worry that we don't understand each other, we will miscalculate and in through that miscalculation things could spin in a very bad direction."

   

  

  Iran meter: Arguably, the key word in Netanyahu's statement last night was not "weeks" or "years" but "we're." Several reports over the last 24 hours have highlighted the fact that the Israeli prime minister isn't the only person who will decide whether to go ahead with an attack on Iran, and that reality could inhibit Israeli military action. At the Daily Beast, Eli Lake profiles the eight-man Israeli security cabinet that would need to approve of a strike -- support that is not guaranteed. Meanwhile, other influential Israelis are speaking out against a preemptive attack. In an interview posted by 60 Minutes, former Israeli intelligence chief Meir Dagan (pictured above with Bibi) suggests fomenting regime change in Tehran instead.

  What's more, two new polls indicate that most Israelis oppose a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran. And, as Daniel Levy has argued at Foreign Policy, politics matters in Netanyahu's calculations. Frankly, the most worrying news today may have been Mullen's warning about a lack of communication between Washington and Tehran. If a confrontation is indeed only months away, the United States doesn't have much time to rectify that situation.

• Introducing 'Iran Watch'

  Posted: March 8, 2012, 2:41 am by Uri Friedman

  

  These days, news about the international crisis over Iran's nuclear program is coming at us at a rapid and often bewildering pace. In the last month alone, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called Israel a "cancer tumor" that "should be cut off," vowed to never sway from Iran's nuclear course, dismissed nuclear weapons as a "sin," and, just today, welcomed U.S. President Barack Obama's call for toning down all this war talk. It's enough to give any observer a good case of whiplash.

  That's why we're taking a step back from the flurry of breaking news and introducing a regular Passport feature to track the drumbeats to war and take the temperature of the major players in the drama. For each post, we'll choose one or more data points or news stories and assign a score based on the following scale:

  1. All Quiet on the Eastern Front

  2. Natanz to Worry About

  3. Nukes of Hazard

  4. Seeing Red Lines

  5. Bombs Away!

  Two stories dominated the news cycle today on Iran. For starters, the United States reportedly offered to give Israel arms that could help in a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities (though the White House denied it):

  In particular, it would offer bunker-busting bombs more powerful than those currently possessed by Israel, which would allow the Jewish state to target Iranian facilities even under solid rock.

  An Israeli official also claimed that new satellite images provide fresh evidence that Iran is trying to conceal its development of a nuclear weapon:

  On Wednesday, pictures provided by unspecified member countries to the International Atomic Energy Agency -- the U.N. nuclear agency -- appear to show trucks and earth-moving vehicles at Iran's Parchin military site. Diplomats said the images suggested the trucks could be carting away radioactive material created in nuclear testing.

   

  

  Verdict: In the end, Isaac's Newton's Third Law applied today -- for every action there was an equal and opposite reaction. AFP reported that the United States had offered to supply Israel with advanced weaponry in exchange for Israel committing to not attack Iran this year. But other Israeli officials are denying that there were any conditions attached to the deal. The satellite imagery of activities at Parchin put a damper on the news that Iran had decided to let inspectors visit the military installation. And even as Israel cautiously welcomes a resumption of big-power nuclear talks with Iran, Iran's envoy to France declared that Iran will not negotiate on its right to enrich uranium -- a critical sticking point. For all these reasons, we're going with Nukes of Hazard.

  Feel free to nominate any Iran Watch stories you think we should be highlighting. E-mail Uri [dot] Friedman [at] foreignpolicy.com

• Morning Brief: Putin wins presidential election amid charges of fraud

  Posted: March 5, 2012, 3:09 pm by Uri Friedman

  Putin wins presidential election amid charges of fraud

  Top story: Preliminary results from Russia's presidential election on Sunday indicate that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin overwhelmingly won a six-year term with more than 60 percent of the vote. "We have gained a clean victory!" Putin declared in a tearful address near the Kremlin (Putin later blamed the tears on the cold). 

  But not everyone agrees. Election monitors with the Organization for Security and Cooperation claim that the contest was "clearly skewed" in favor of Putin while the Russian election watchdog Golos says it's recorded more than 3,000 reports of voting fraud. An emboldened opposition movement is planning to protest the outcome in Moscow on Monday.

  In what some are interpreting as an olive branch to protesters, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev ordered a legal review of the convictions of former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky and 30 others on Monday. 

  Obama on Iran: In an address to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee ahead of a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, President Obama declared that he would use military force if necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons but urged patience with his approach of mixing diplomacy with sanctions against Tehran. "Already, there is too much loose talk of war," he noted.

  Middle East

  • Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's allies scored a victory over supporters of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran's parliamentary elections, in a win that could transform the country's political system.

  • At least 85 Yemeni soldiers died in two suicide bombings and clashes with militants in the southern city of Zinjibar.

  • Gunmen disguised as policemen killed at least 27 members of the security forces in western Iraq.

  Asia

  • Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao informed the opening session of the National People's Congress that economic growth will slow in 2012 per the leadership's five-year plan, as China announced that it will increase military spending by more than 11 percent.

  • In a visit to the border with South Korea, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warned that if a conflict erupts, the South would be forced to sign a "document of surrender."

  • China is sending an envoy to Syria with a six-point peace plan as violence persists and the Red Cross struggles to deliver aid.

  Americas

  • Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez admitted that his cancer had recurred but insisted that the tumor hadn't spreading, adding that he'll need more radiation treatment. 

  • U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is visiting Mexico and Honduras to discuss drug trafficking at a time when some regional leaders are calling for the decriminalization of drugs.  

  • Peruvian police say they've captured another leader of the Shining Path rebel group.

  Africa

  • Explosions at a weapons depot in the Republic of Congo, apparently caused by a fire, have left hundreds dead and wounded.

  • Malawi's President Bingu wa Mutharika accused foreign donors of trying to destabilize his government and told them to "go to hell." 

  • Senegal's electoral commission has set March 25 as the date for a run-off presidential election.

  Europe

  • Poland has declared three days of national mourning after a train crash near Krakow killed 16 people.

  • The trial of Iceland's former prime minister for negligence over the 2008 financial crisis has begun in Reykjavik.

  • The British Foreign Office says it's providing "consular assistance" to two British journalists working for Iran's Press TV who have been accused of spying in Libya.

  
  

  Oleg Nikishin/Epsilon/Getty Images

• The Election 2012 Weekly Report: An Ohio Tipping Point?

  Posted: March 2, 2012, 1:15 am by Uri Friedman

  

  Nail-biter in Michigan

  Mitt Romney easily won the Arizona primary on Tuesday and eked out a victory against a surging Rick Santorum in Michigan, where Romney was born and his father was a popular governor. While Santorum cast the close contest as a victory of sorts ("a month ago, they didn't know who we are," he told supporters), the results solidified Romney's status as the frontrunner in the topsy-turvy Republican race. The former Massachusetts governor, who now has roughly double the number of delegates as Santorum, is leading the pack of remaining GOP candidates comfortably in most national polls.

  Iran and gas prices

  Last month, Newt Gingrich shifted the focus of his campaign to energy in a bet that owning the issue of rising gas prices could help him claw back into the race. Gingrich has pledged to lower gas prices to $2.50 per gallon by increasing domestic energy production through initiatives such as the Keystone XL pipeline. Now, as tensions mount with Iran over its nuclear program and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to visit Washington, the other candidates are following suit. Romney accused President Barack Obama of stifling fracking -- a controversial technique to unlock oil and gas in underground rock formations -- through excessive regulations, Santorum went so far as to brandish a piece of oil-rich shale rock during his Michigan concession speech to demonstrate his support for the energy industry. (In another nod to stage props this week, Ron Paul waved a silver coin at Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to argue for returning to the gold and silver standard.)

  Obama has been talking energy too, calling for an end to $4 billion in annual tax breaks and subsidies for oil and gas companies. A Pew survey released on Thursday found that voters are spreading the blame for rising gas prices among the administration, oil companies, and Iran -- though Republicans are much more likely to blame Obama.

  Obama: "I don't bluff"

  In an interview with the Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg on Iran ahead of a meeting with Netanyahu, Obama declared that the United States would consider taking military action to destroy Iran's nuclear program if economic sanctions fail to compel it to comply with international inspections, but added that now is not the right time for a preemptive Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. "I think that the Israeli government recognizes that, as president of the United States, I don't bluff," he noted. "I also don't, as a matter of sound policy, go around advertising exactly what our intentions are." On Twitter, former Republican presidential candidate Michele Bachmann shot back: "Obama doesn't ‘go around advertising exactly what our [foreign policy] intentions are?' What about #Iraq/#Afghanistan?"

  As he launches his reelection campaign, Obama has been trumpeting foreign policy successes such as ending the war in Iraq and killing Osama bin Laden. While "the other side traditionally seems to feel that the Democrats are somehow weak on defense," he recently told supporters, "they're having a little trouble making that argument this year" (a poll last month found that voters trust Obama more than Romney to handle international affairs). Yet Bloomberg's Terry Atlas points out that, in an election dominated by economic concerns, "foreign policy barely registers as an issue in public opinion polls," though an "arc of crises from Libya to Afghanistan" may yet change all that.

  Read what George W. Bush advisors Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie have to say on the matter in the latest issue of Foreign Policy -- and a spirited rebuttal by Democratic pollsters Stanley Greenberg and Jeremy Rosner.

  Apologizing in Afghanistan

  The Republican candidates have long accused Obama of apologizing for America's actions abroad, and this week the refrain came in the context of the president apologizing to Afghans for the burning of Qurans at a U.S. military base in Afghanistan even as U.S. soldiers were killed in retaliation. Gingrich called the apology "astonishing" and suggested that the United States tell Afghans, "You're going to have to figure out how to live your own miserable life." Santorum accused Obama of "weakness" while Romney also criticized the decision.

  In a larger piece about the Republicans and Afghanistan, Dominic Tierney at the Atlantic argues that the Republican Party is deeply divided about Afghanistan. The fundamental question facing the GOP, he writes, is whether the "end of defeating radical Islam [is] worth the means of big government nation-building."

  Santorum's ‘snob' snafu

  Santorum stirred controversy this week by suggesting that Obama was a "snob" for wanting "everybody in America to go to college." Obama "wants to remake you in his image," the former Pennsylvania senator argued. "I want to create jobs so people can remake their children into their image, not his." Santorum appeared to subsequently backtrack from the comments, noting in his Michigan concession speech that his mother was an "unusual person for her time" by getting a college education in the 1930s, but the comment nevertheless touched off a debate about U.S. education. News outlets pointed out that Obama also supports the type of vocational training that Santorum champions, and that the former Pennsylvania senator backed increasing grants for college students during his reelection campaign in 2006.

  What to watch for

  All eyes now turn to Super Tuesday on March 6, when ten states will vote and more than 400 delegates will be up for grabs. The biggest battleground is the delegate-rich swing state of Ohio, where Romney has steadily been cutting into Santorum's lead. "For Romney," the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza notes, "it's uniquely possible that winning the Buckeye State on Tuesday would effectively clinch the presidential nomination for him."

  The latest from FP

  Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie offer a primer to the GOP candidates on how to beat Barack Obama on foreign policy.

  Jeremy Rosner and Stanley Greenberg respond by pointing out that Americans have confidence in Obama as commander in chief.

  Michael Cohen adds that Rove and Gillespie are "stuck in a 9/12 mindset."

  Reza Aslan presents readers with a quiz: Who said it, Rick Santorum or Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei?

  Gal Luft wonders whether Obama will remake himself into a war president when faced with a choice between high gas prices and a nuclear Iran.

  Michael Levi argues that Obama's record on energy is stronger than his Republican rivals claim.

  Vaclav Smil explains why Mitt Romney is right to focus on the importance of Canadian energy.

  Scott Clement points out that while Americans may not like North Korea, few want to go to war over its nuclear weapons.

  Jack Chow makes the case for why a President Santorum would be great news for the AIDS fight in Africa.

  Susan Glasser connects the dots on the nasty rhetoric in the U.S. and Russian elections.

  Daniel Drezner maintains that Santorum's views on manufacturing are antiquated.

• Morning Brief: Red Cross arrives in Homs

  Posted: March 2, 2012, 3:10 pm by Uri Friedman

  Red Cross arrives in Homs

  Top story: A day after the U.N. Security Council unanimously expressed "deep disappointment" at Syria's refusal to allow U.N. humanitarian chief Valerie Amos into the country, a Red Cross and Syrian Red Crescent convoy has entered the long-besieged Baba Amr district of Homs to deliver food and medical aid and evacuate the wounded. Residents lack electricity and are facing heavy snow and freezing weather.

  On Thursday, the rebel Free Syrian Army announced that it was leaving the district -- where only a few thousand people remain out of a population of 100,000 -- in a "tactical withdrawal." An official with Syria's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates declared that Baba Amr had been "cleansed" of "foreign-backed armed groups of terrorists."

  As two French journalists who had been trapped in Homs escaped to Lebanon, French President Nicolas Sarkozy closed his country's embassy in Syria, following the lead of Britain and the United States. "What is happening is a scandal," he said.

  European debt crisis: Every European Union member but the Czech Republic and the United Kingdom signed a "fiscal compact" to enforce budget discipline on eurozone states. British Prime Minister David Cameron has expressed opposition to financial service regulations in the treaty. 

  Middle East

  • Iranians are voting in parliamentary elections that may reflect a battle for influence among the country's conservatives.

  • Israel announced that it will conduct its first test of a new antiballistic missile system that can intercept missiles coming from countries such as Iran and Syria. 

  • Fifteen foreign pro-democracy workers flew from Egypt to Cyprus after their NGOs posted bail of $330,000 per employee in a case that has threatened U.S.-Egyptian relations.

  Europe

  • Serbia has formally become a candidate for European Union membership.

  • The government in Azerbaijan dismissed a provincial governor in response to a rare protest. 

  • French President Nicolas Sarkozy had to take cover in a bar after confronting protesters in the Basque region of the country.

  Asia

  • Ten Pakistani soldiers and 23 militants were killed in clashes near the Afghan border, as elections get underway for the Pakistani Senate.

  • A Chinese environmental official says two-thirds of China's cities will not meet new air quality standards.

  • New Zealand will demolish Christchurch cathedral, which was damaged in an earthquake last year.

  Africa

  • Somali troops and African Union forces captured a major al-Shabab base outside Mogadishu.

  • The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Sudan's defense minister as part of an investigation into crimes committed in Darfur. 

  • Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Sudan are building a port, oil refinery, and rail network near Lamu, a world heritage site.

  Americas

  • Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner suggested establishing direct flights between Buenos Aires and the Falkland Islands amid an escalating dispute with the United Kingdom over the islands.

  • New polling indicates that Mexico's presidential race is tightening.

  • A Guantanamo Bay prisoner and former Maryland resident pleaded guilty to helped al Qaeda plot attacks.

  
  

  Gianluigi Guercia/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: UN debate on Syria shifts to humanitarian aid

  Posted: February 29, 2012, 3:18 pm by Uri Friedman

  UN debate on Syria shifts to humanitarian aid

  Top story: Following two vetoes by Russia and China of U.N. Security Council resolutions condemning the Syrian regime's crackdown, France and the United States are now drafting a resolution to provide access for humanitarian aid workers to besieged Syrian towns and call for an end to violence in the country.

  On Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi signaled possible support for such a measure by telling the head of the Arab League that the international community should "extend humanitarian aid to Syria" while also calling for "political dialogue" and "all sides to cease violence." U.N. diplomats tell Reuters that Russia might also support a resolution that focuses on the humanitarian crisis and makes no mention of the political situation.

  As Syrian troops launch a ground attack on the flashpoint city of Homs, the United Nations estimates that 7,500 civilians have been killed in the conflict and that the death toll now exceeds 100 civilians a day. The Syrian government says around 2,500 civilians have died and that "armed gangs and terrorists" have killed more than 1,000 members of the security forces, according to the BBC.

  U.S. election: Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney decisively won a primary in Arizona and narrowly defeated Rick Santorum in Michigan, solidifying his frontrunner status ahead of Super Tuesday contests next week.

  Middle East

  • Egyptian security officials claim they've detained senior al Qaeda commander Saif al-Adel at Cairo International Airport.

  • Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reports that the United States and Egypt are engaged in "intensive discussions" over ending the criminal prosecution of NGO workers.

  • Iran's foreign minister labeled the production of nuclear weapons a "great sin," as the country announced that it will accept gold instead of dollars from its trading partners in response to Western sanctions.

  Europe

  • The European Central Bank has offered €530 billion of low-interest loans to 800 banks across the European Union.

  • Belarus warned of an "escalation of tensions" with the European Union over the bloc's decision to withdraw member ambassadors from the country out of concern about human rights violations.

  • The French Constitutional Council struck down a draft law criminalizing the denial of an Armenian genocide, as French President Nicolas Sarkozy vowed to draft a new law.

  Americas

  • Interpol arrested 25 Anonymous members in Europe and South America who are suspected of launching cyberattacks against targets such as Colombia's defense ministry and a Chilean electricity company. 

  • Guatemala extradited the country's top drug trafficker to the United States, where he faces a life sentence if convicted.

  • Venezuela's vice president says that President Hugo Chavez is in "good physical shape" after undergoing cancer surgery in Cuba.

  Asia

  • Clashes in a town in Western China populated mostly by Uighurs killed 20 people.

  • Indian National Congress leader Sonia Gandhi has left India for a medical checkup, fueling speculation about her health.

  • The officers of a ship that struck a reef in New Zealand have pleaded guilty to causing the country's worst environmental disaster in decades. 

  Africa

  • Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade has accepted an election run-off, but official results from Sunday's divisive contest have yet to be released.

  • Planes are picking up passengers from the crippled Costa Allegra cruise ship, which is now in the Seychelles.

  • A carpenter has reportedly been arrested in Zimbabwe for wondering aloud at a bar whether President Robert Mugabe had the strength to blow up balloons at his 88th birthday celebrations.

  
  

  Gianluigi Guercia/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: Senegalese election remains too close to call

  Posted: February 27, 2012, 3:30 pm by Uri Friedman

  Senegalese election remains too close to call

  Top story: Early reports from Senegal's presidential election over the weekend suggest that neither incumbent Abdoulaye Wade nor former prime minister Macky Sall has gained the 50 percent of votes needed to avoid a run-off. A spokesman for Wade maintains that the president is "well ahead," while Sall has declared that "a second round is inevitable."

  Wade's decision to seek a third term despite a constitutional two-term limit sparked heated protests in the lead-up to the election, raising the prospect of volatility in a West African country that has long been a stable democracy. The president was booed on Sunday as he voted in the capital, Dakar.

  In the event of a run-off, the Associated Press notes, Wade will have a difficult time beating a united opposition. If he nevertheless emerges victorious, the New York Times adds, the unrest of recent weeks could "spill over into something uglier."

  Syria: At least 59 people were killed in Syria on Sunday during a referendum on a new constitution that Western leaders have dismissed as a sham, while the European Union imposed new sanctions on Syria and divisions emerged within the Syrian opposition.

  Asia

  • The Taliban is claiming responsibility for a deadly suicide attack on a NATO air base in eastern Afghanistan as "revenge" for the burning of Korans last week at NATO's Bagram air base. 

  • Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard defeated rival Kevin Rudd in a leadership vote.

  • Ahead of a joint military exercise between the United States and South Korea, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un threatened a "powerful retaliatory strike" at the first sign of aggression by the South.

  Middle East

  • Egypt has postponed the controversial trial of employees of American-backed nonprofit groups until April, the same month that U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is slated to certify Egypt for foreign aid.

  • Outgoing Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh formally ceded power to his vice president in a ceremony in Sanaa, as the U.S. works with the new government to overhaul Yemen's military in an effort to combat al Qaeda.

  • Al Jazeera says it's uncovered new evidence that casts doubt on the case against the man accused of orchestrating the Lockerbie bombing in 1988.

  Europe

  • Russian and Ukrainian security services have reportedly foiled a plot to assassinate Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin after next week's presidential election, as thousands of anti-Kremlin protesters took to the streets on Sunday ahead of the contest.

  • Finance ministers of the Group of 20 countries convinced their European counterparts to review the size of the eurozone's bailout fund.

  • Spain's Supreme Court has cleared judge Baltasar Garzon of charges that he illegally investigated crimes committed during Francisco Franco's regime.

  Americas

  • Colombia's FARC rebel group has announced that it will stop kidnapping people for ransom and free captives.

  • WikiLeaks has begun publishing more than five million confidential emails from the private intelligence company Stratfor.

  • Brazil's finance minister indicated that developing countries would provide more financial assistance to Europe in exchange for more power at the International Monetary Fund.

  Africa

  • The Islamist group Boko Haram has claimed responsibility for a suicide attack on a church in the Nigerian city of Jos.

  • Former South African President Nelson Mandela, 93, was discharged from the hospital after a brief stay. 

  • Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe called for elections to be held in 2012 during celebrations for his 88th birthday.

  
  

  Issouf Sanogo/AFP/Getty Images

• Covert ops: Newt Gingrich's (not so) secret weapon

  Posted: February 23, 2012, 7:58 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  If a wave of déjà vu washed over you last night as Newt Gingrich outlined his approach to the violence in Syria, there's good reason. The United States should "have our allies covertly helping destroy the Assad regime," the former House speaker argued duringthe Republican presidential debate in Arizona. "There are plenty of Arab-speaking groups that would be quite happy. There are lots of weapons available in the Middle East."

  The response echoed one of Gingrich's favorite refrains. In November, for instance, he advocated "maximum covert operations to block and disrupt the Iranian [nuclear] program, including taking out their scientists, including breaking up their systems, all of it covertly, all of it deniable."

  Of course, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have also called for covert action in Iran. But Gingrich wants to apply the tactic far more expansively. In January, he called for clandestine operations to "encourage the Cuban people to feel that the end of the Castro brothers is actually the end of the dictatorship and that the time has come for a transition."

  In explaining how he would have handled the Libyan uprising during an appearance on Fox News last spring, Gingrich declared that the United States should have initially "taken a quiet, careful, indirect route that would have gotten rid of Qaddafi but without using American force and without using overt American action."

  Just this month, he told Greta Van Susteren that he would alter President Obama's approach to Pakistan by urging Congress to repeal all restrictions on U.S. spying, thereby rebuilding the "American capacity to do genuine intelligence and genuine covert operations."

  Gingrich likes to say that his faith in covert operations stems from how U.S. President Ronald Reagan, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, and Pope John Paul II confronted the Soviet Union and supported the Polish trade union and opposition movement Solidarity in the 1980s. "They helped organize Solidarity, financed it, got printing equipment and communications gear," Gingrich told Miami's CBS4, in explaining how the Castro regime could be overthrown nonviolently.

  All this overt talk about covert action, however, has some people worrying that a President Gingrich would preside over the least-secret secret operations in U.S. history. "What is it about 'covert' that the Republicans don't understand?" the Washington Post's David Ignatius marveled after one debate in which the candidates used the word nine times. If Gingrich really believed he could become president, he "wouldn't put himself in the position of having to deny in office something that he had already admitted he'd do if elected," added Shikha Dalmia at The Daily, flagging America's "inglorious history of covert operations" as a cautionary tale.

  To be sure, it's one thing to recommend secret operations on the campaign trail and quite another to blab about them while in office. But Gingrich doesn't exactly have a sterling track record on the governing side, either. In 1995, he spearheaded an effort in Congress to launch a $20 million covert CIA program against Tehran over the objections of CIA and Clinton administration officials, who argued the project would be wasteful and ineffectual.

  At the time, the New York Times News Service noted that Gingrich had "made his feelings known so strongly that his desire for a covert operation" had become public, getting picked up by news outlets and Iranian leaders and diminishing the chances that the program would succeed:

  Now the CIA finds itself required, against its better judgment, to plan a "secret" mission, with its cover already blown, in a region where U.S. policy has in recent years suffered failures and fiascos.

  If Gingrich does indeed become president, he could find himself in a similar bind -- in several dicey regions, no less.

• Morning Brief: Two journalists killed by shelling in Syria

  Posted: February 22, 2012, 3:40 pm by Uri Friedman

  Two journalists killed by shelling in Syria

  Top story: The French government and opposition activists are reporting that the American reporter Marie Colvin and French photographer Remi Ochlik were killed on Wednesday as Syrian forces shelled the flashpoint city of Homs, including a makeshift media center where the two journalists were staying. The deaths come less than a week after New York Times reporter Anthony Shadid died in Syria of an apparent asthma attack and only a day after a Syrian video blogger was killed in Homs.

  Just yesterday, Colvin (pictured above, on right) had reported on the situation in Homs for the BBC. "I watched a little baby die today" she noted. "Absolutely horrific, just a two-year-old." Reuters reports that 19 people have been killed in Homs so far today.

  On Tuesday, meanwhile, China, Iran, and Russia all expressed support for the Syrian government. Russia says it's working with all sides in the conflict to ensure safe passage for humanitarian convoys, while the Red Cross is meeting with Syria's main opposition group in Geneva.

  Afghanistan: At least four people have been killed in Afghanistan in a second day of protests over the accidental burning of copies of the Koran at NATO's Bagram airbase.

  Asia

  • Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd has resigned as rumors swirl that he is gunning for Prime Minister Julia Gillard's job.

  • Indonesian police stormed a prison in Bali after a deadly riot by inmates.

  • South Korea is urging China to reconsider its decision to repatriate 30 North Korean refugees.

  Middle East

  • The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that nuclear talks with Iran have failed and that Tehran rejected its request to visit a military site, as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vows to stick to Iran's "nuclear course."

  • Israel will release a Palestinian member of Islamic Jihad who went on a hunger strike to protest his detention without charge.

  • Preliminary figures suggest that turnout in Yemen's first presidential election since the resignation of Ali Abdullah Saleh reached 60 percent despite deadly violence in the south.

  Americas

  • Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez says he'll undergo surgery on a new lesion that could indicate that his cancer has returned.

  • Prison guards helped the Zetas orchestrate a jailbreak and massacre of rival drug gang members in Mexico. 

  • The jail fire in Honduras that killed 360 prisoners may have begun after an inmate fell asleep while smoking.

  Europe

  • The leader of the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia has escaped a deadly ambush on his convoy.

  • French police are questioning Dominique Strauss-Kahn for a second day as part of an investigation into a prostitution ring.

  • Spain is preparing to repatriate gold and silver coins worth several hundred million euros that a Florida-based treasure hunting company recovered from a 19th-century shipwreck. 

  Africa

  • Former Nigerian leader Olusegun Obasanjo is visiting Senegal to help restore calm ahead of Sunday's elections.

  • The United Nations is set to increase the number of African Union peacekeeping troops in Somalia by nearly 6,000 soldiers.

  • West Africa is experiencing an uptick in piracy and arms, cocaine, and human trafficking, according to the United Nations.

  
  

  Arthur Edwards/WPA Pool/Getty Images

• Most Americans support using force to prevent a nuclear Iran

  Posted: February 15, 2012, 6:18 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  During this year's Republican primary, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum have all suggested that they would use military force if necessary to dismantle Iran's nuclear program. And tensions between Washington and Tehran have only increased as speculation swirls about an imminent Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iranian officials trumpet their nuclear advances, and mysterious bombings appear to target Israeli diplomats in Georgia, India, and Thailand. 

  But how does the American public view the situation in Iran? New polling from the Pew Research Center this morning suggests that Americans are in a rather bellicose mood when it comes to confronting Iran, and pessimistic about the power of sanctions to keep Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

  In the survey, 58 percent of respondents said it was more important to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if that meant taking military action. Only 30 percent preferred avoiding a military conflict even if it meant Iran going nuclear. Republicans (74 percent) were far more supportive of using military force than Democrats (50 percent), but Democratic backing was still substantial.

  Around half of Americans, meanwhile, believe the United States should remain neutral if Israel strikes Iran. But, as Pew points out, more respondents said the United States should support (39 percent) Israel than oppose (5 percent) it. A majority of Republicans think the United States should back Israel while a majority of Democrats think it should stay neutral. 

  Pew notes that there are nuances in the data as well. Women and young people, for example, are more likely to support the United States staying neutral in an Israeli-Iranian conflict. And, not surprisingly, conservative Republicans, including Tea Party supporters, are more likely to champion American support of Israeli military action than moderate or liberal Republicans.

  Where there's more agreement across the aisle is in the belief that tough economic sanctions -- a tactic the Obama administration continues to pursue -- will be ineffective in persuading Iran to abandon its nuclear program. Sixty-four percent of the public thinks these measures will not work, compared with 56 percent in October 2009.

  Of course, supporting military force if it means preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons (in other words, approving of it as a last resort) isn't the same as a full-throated endorsement of the military option. In a Quinnipiac University poll in November, 36 percent of respondents supported the use of force in any case, while an additional 14 percent backed the option if sanctions failed. In a CNN/ORC survey around the same time, more than six in 10 respondents selected "economic and diplomatic efforts" -- not "military action right now" -- as the best U.S. policy toward Iran's nuclear program.

  If Americans are so down on economic sanctions as an effective solution, however, one wonders whether they're beginning to resign themselves to a military conflict, even if they have little appetite for it.

• Morning Brief: U.S. officials greet China's heir apparent with tough trade talk

  Posted: February 15, 2012, 3:20 pm by Uri Friedman

  U.S. officials greet China's heir apparent with tough trade talk

  Top story: As Xi Jinping, China's vice president and leader-in-waiting, made his rounds in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, U.S. leaders focused on one issue in particular: trade. Vice President Joe Biden raised concerns about intellectual property theft and China's currency, noting that cooperation "can only be mutually beneficial if the game is fair." President Obama expressed a similar desire for everybody to play "by the same rules of the road." Senator John Kerry pledged to tell Xi the story of an American company whose technology was sold to China.  

  Xi, for his part, argued that any issues between the two countries should be resolved through dialogue and "not protectionism," urging the United States to lift restrictions on high-tech exports to China.

  U.S. officials also discussed human rights and China's veto of U.N. action against Syria with Xi. After a State Department lunch, the Chinese vice president explained that China had made progress on human rights in the past three decades, though he added that there was "always room for improvement."

  Syria: President Bashar al-Assad has ordered a referendum on a new constitution on Feb. 26, according to Syrian television, as Syrian government forces launched offensives against the opposition in Homs, Hama, and a district of Damascus.

  Europe

  • Greece's finance minister has promised to clarify the country's austerity package today as eurozone officials demand more detail and commitments from Greek leaders. 

  • New economic data suggests that Italy and the Netherlands have fallen into recession while France enjoyed unexpected growth at the end of last year.

  • Italian prosecutors are seeking a new trial for Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito four months after an appellate court overturned their convictions in the murder of a British student.

  Asia

  • Israel's ambassador to Thailand says bombs seized by police in Bangkok resembled devices used against Israeli diplomats earlier this week in India and Georgia, while Thai authorities also say they may have found a link.

  • North Korean officials are pledging loyalty to Kim Jong Un and unveiling the first bronze statue of Kim Jong Il ahead of the late leader's birthday on Thursday.

  • NATO has admitted killing eight young Afghans in an air strike.

  Middle East

  • Iran is poised to unveil new uranium enrichment centrifuges and load domestically made nuclear fuel rods into a reactor, according to state-run news outlets, which are also reporting that the government has halted oil exports to six European countries.

  • More than 120 protesters have been wounded in clashes with police during the anniversary of Bahrain's uprising this week, according to activists.  

  • Egyptian state media is reporting that presidential elections will be held by late May.

  Americas

  • Mexican police say they've arrested a Sinaloa operative who's one of the country's main producers of methamphetamine.

  • Government officials and state media in Venezuela have launched blistering attacks on President Hugo Chavez's challenger in the upcoming presidential election, as the Supreme Court demands voting records from Sunday's primary contest.

  • A fire at a prison in Honduras appears to have killed hundreds of people.

  Africa

  • African Union troops have launched an offensive against al-Shabab strongholds near the Somali capital.

  • A Ugandan minister raided a workshop for gay activists days after a legislator reintroduced anti-gay legislation.

  • Congo has suspended the licenses of two airlines following a plane crash that killed a top advisor to President Joseph Kabila.

  
  

  Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

• Oliver Stone's son converts to Islam in Iran

  Posted: February 14, 2012, 7:16 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  AFP and Iranian news outlets are reporting this morning that Oscar-winning director Oliver Stone's son, Sean, converted to Shiism today during a ceremony in the central Iranian city of Isfahan, reciting the Islamic profession of faith and choosing the Muslim first name Ali. "The conversion to Islam is not abandoning Christianity or Judaism, which I was born with," the 27-year-old documentary filmmaker, whose father is half-Jewish and mother Christian, told AFP. "It means I have accepted Mohammad and other prophets."

  Earlier this month, the Iranian press reported that Sean attended a conference on "Hollywoodism and Cinema" in Tehran, which featured an address by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and focused on "Hollywood's behind-the-scenes policies and its destructive effects on family foundation," according to the Islamic Republic News Agency.

  What's perhaps as interesting as the conversion, however, is the backstory. Last fall, Sean, pictured above in Tehran, traveled to Iran to work on a film about the mystic poet Rumi and to help "introduce Persian culture and civilization to the West," according to the Tehran Times. After his visit, he told The Wrap that Iran had a right to nuclear weapons and defended Ahmadinejad. "Iran is ruled by law," he explained. "People don't like Ahmadinejad, but that doesn't warrant a war or an uprising."

  Oliver Stone -- who has courted controversy in the past by interviewing Cuba's Raúl Castro and Venezuela's Hugo Chávez for his 2009 documentary South of the Border -- has a more complicated relationship with Iran. Some Iranians were angered by Stone's 2004 biopic about Alexander the Great (the Tehran Times claims the film depicted "ancient Persians as idiots and buffoons"), and Iranian authorities have repeatedly rebuffed Stone's requests to make a documentary about Ahmadinejad. In 2007, Ahmadinejad's media advisor, Mehdi Kalhor, explained the decision by calling Stone "part of the Great Satan." Stone, in turn, issued a statement declaring that he wished "the Iranian people well, and only hope their experience with an inept, rigid ideologue president goes better than ours" (this was the Bush era).

  In an explosive 2010 interview with London's Sunday Times, Stone softened his tone somewhat, noting that U.S. policy toward Iran was "horrible." Iran "isn't necessary the good guy," he conceded. "But we don't know the full story." Now, it seems, Iran is much more than that -- a spiritual destination for his son. We wonder if Stone will get permission for that Ahmadinejad documentary after all.

• Why is Greece cutting private-sector wages?

  Posted: February 13, 2012, 1:30 am by Uri Friedman

  

  There's something puzzling about the austerity bill embraced by the Greek parliament overnight. The package includes measures such as government layoffs that seem logical for a country flirting with default. But news reports are also discussing private-sector wage cuts. How is the government able to slash salaries in the private sector, and why would it imperil much-needed tax revenue by reducing people's incomes and embarking on what Reuters is calling "among the most radical steps backwards inflicted in peacetime in modern Europe?"

  For starters, the Greek government isn't strongarming companies into cutting salaries; it's modifying labor law by lowering the minimum wage by 22 percent to €586 a month (around $780) -- roughly on par with Portugal's -- with a 32 percent cut for workers under age 25. Greece's foreign lenders -- the European Commission, European Central Bank, and International Monetary Fund -- have long demanded the cuts in exchange for a second bailout, and over the weekend Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos publicly endorsed the measure, which had nearly torn his governing coalition asunder only days earlier. The austerity program may be a bitter pill to swallow, Papademos allowed, but it will stave off bankruptcy and "restore the fiscal stability and global competitiveness of the economy."  

  Platon Tinios, an economist at the University of Piraeus in Greece, explains that the cuts championed by international financial organizations are intended to structurally revamp economies and make them more competitive. "Greece has a very rigid labor market, which has translated in the past 10 years into what essentially was jobless growth," he explains. "The point is to intervene in the labor market so as to increase the probability of jobs being created faster when the recovery comes."

  Or, as the New York Times put it earlier this month, the goal of reducing Greece's minimum wage is to "make Greek workers, who are generally less productive than workers elsewhere in Europe, able to compete more effectively inside the eurozone, where countries share a common currency that does not allow devaluations to help even out differences in labor costs." 

  Indeed, the EU and IMF forced a similar reduction in living standards in Latvia -- through a process known as "internal devaluation" -- though there is heated debate about whether it worked and whether the Latvian model can be applied to Greece.

  Dimitri Papadimitriou, an economics professor at Bard College and the president of the Levy Economics Institute, is highly skeptical of the IMF's "neoliberal policy." He says it hasn't worked in Latin America or Portugal and won't work in Greece, which doesn't have an export-driven economy like Germany does.

  Labor demand cannot be stoked simply by lowering the cost of production on the supply side, Papadimitriou argues. "If you had a good industrial base ... you could produce a lot more [by lowering wages] because the demand is there either from abroad or domestically," he explains. "But in the absence of that, interference with private-sector labor is not something that will solve the problem." Papadimitriou adds that reducing wages could put a dent in tax revenues and pension contributions.

  Tinios, meanwhile, is less concerned about those possibilities. "In the medium term, what's more important is to create more jobs, and reducing the minimum wage doesn't mean that hundreds of thousands of Greeks will be paid less tomorrow; it will mean that new job offers will be made at the lower minimum wage," he notes, though he concedes that struggling firms may be more likely to slash existing salaries if the minimum wage is reduced.

  There's also the question of whether, in cutting wages, Greece is chasing the wrong demon. "If our political system had, over the years and especially the last two years, addressed the essential problems of competitiveness in our economy -- the excessive number of laws and bureaucracy, the corruption, the bloated and wasteful state, the closed markets, the antibusiness environment -- then we wouldn't be forced to discuss wage costs today," Federation of Greek Industries President Dimitris Daskalopoulos declared earlier this month.

  The ultimate lesson, of course, is that Greece is choosing from a menu of awful options. As the Associated Press noted over the weekend, " Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} Greece is trapped in a lose-lose predicament: It must deepen an austerity plan begun in 2010 that will throw many more people out of work. Or it must default on its debts, abandon Europe's single currency, and see its banking system implode."

  For now, Greek leaders appear to have averted their eyes, held their noses, and chosen the former.

• Morning Brief: Greece passes austerity plan amid furious protests

  Posted: February 13, 2012, 3:34 pm by Uri Friedman

  Greece passes austerity plan amid furious protests

  Top story: Facing violent protests across the country, the Greek parliament has approved an austerity bill in an effort to avoid default and secure a second bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. The measures include a 22 percent cut in the minimum wage and 150,000 government layoffs by 2015.

  Olli Rehn, the European Union's commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, praised the vote, urging Greek leaders to "make the case for the second program and fully implement it in order to return the country to stable economic growth and job creation." Eurozone ministers must now approve the measures during a meeting on Wednesday.

  Convincing the Greek public of the need for austerity, however, has proven difficult. Over the weekend, at least 80,000 people demonstrated in Athens, with buildings getting set on fire and protesters hurling rocks and Molotov cocktails at police, who responded with tear gas. The concern, according to the New York Times, is that the "sharp belt-tightening and the bailout money it brings will still not be enough to keep the country from going over a precipice."   

  Xi Jinping visit: Ahead of a visit to the United States this week, Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, who appears poised to become China's next leader, told the Washington Post that his country and America "must not allow frictions and differences to undermine the larger interests of our business cooperation" and warned Washington over its military activity in the Pacific.

  Middle East

  • Syrian forces are reportedly shelling the city of Homs for a 10th day after the government rejected an Arab League call for a U.N. peacekeeping mission and support of the opposition. 

  • Malaysia has deported a Saudi journalist who will likely be arrested for writing about the Prophet Muhammad on Twitter. 

  • Bahraini riot police clashed with young protesters wielding petrol bombs ahead of the anniversary of last year's uprising, while the authorities deported two American activists who participated in a demonstration.

  Asia

  • Pakistan's Supreme Court has indicted Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani on charges of contempt of court as tensions escalate between the judiciary and the government. 

  • Facing little opposition, President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov was reelected in Turkmenistan with 97 percent of the vote.

  • An Indonesian court is accusing Umar Patek of premeditated murder for his alleged role in the 2002 terrorist attacks in Bali. 

  Europe

  • Israeli officials say police in the Georgian capital Tbilisi have defused a bomb found in a car belonging to an Israeli embassy staffer, while another car bomb targeting an Israeli embassy staffer in New Delhi exploded.

  • A retired British businessman accused of offering to sell missile batteries to Iran will be extradited to the United States.

  • Britain's judiciary has set bail conditions for radical Palestinian-Jordanian cleric Abu Qatada. 

  Americas

  • Venezuelan opposition leader Henrique Capriles Radonski won a primary election and will challenge President Hugo Chavez in the fall.

  • Peruvian forces have captured a guerrilla leader and major player in the cocaine trade.

  • Guatemalan President Otto Perez Molina has proposed legalizing drugs in Central America, prompting criticism from the U.S. embassy in the country. 

  Africa

  • Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila's chief advisor was killed in a plane crash that also injured the country's finance minister.

  • Zambia dramatically won its first Africa Cup of Nations by beating tournament favorite Ivory Coast in Libreville, Gabon, where a 1993 plane crash killed Zambia's national team.

  • A ruling party candidate has been elected governor in a major Nigerian oil-producing state, ending a long political impasse. 

  
  

  Milos Bicanski/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: Homs assault persists as Russia pursues diplomacy

  Posted: February 8, 2012, 3:20 pm by Uri Friedman

  Homs assault persists as Russia pursues diplomacy

  Top story: Syrian forces are bombarding the city of Homs for a fifth straight day, not long after President Bashar al-Assad met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to discuss the conflict. Lavrov has since announced that Syria's vice president is prepared to begin talks with opposition forces and urged Western and Arab leaders to back the efforts. Syrian opposition leaders have rebuffed such calls in the past, insisting that Assad first end the violence and step down.

  Other countries are pressing forward with their own diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is planning to call Russian President Dmitry Medvedev as part of an effort to foster broad consensus on how to end the bloodshed, while the White says it may provide humanitarian aid to the Syrian people. France recalled its ambassador from Syria a day after the United States closed its embassy in Damascus.

  "As the Obama administration weighs worst-case scenarios for Syria," Reuters notes, "one stands out: a civil war that develops into a proxy battle between Arabs and the West on one side, and Russia and Iran on the other."

  Islamic extremism: A report by the Triangle Center on Terrorism and Homeland Security has concluded that terrorism by Muslim Americans poses "a miniscule threat to public safety." The study noted that 20 Muslim Americans were charged in violent plots or attacks in 2011, down from 47 in 2009. 

  Europe

  • Greek leaders postponed a decision on an austerity package for another day in the face of a general strike against the measures.

  • Germany enjoyed a trade surplus of $209 billion in 2011 on record imports and exports. 

  • Russian authorities are planning to retry a lawyer who died in detention for tax evasion, in the first posthumous prosecution in Russian history. 

  Asia

  • The ousted president of the Maldives claims he did not resign voluntarily yesterday but was rather forced out of power "at gunpoint" -- a claim the country's new leader denies.

  • Millions of voters in the giant Indian state of Uttar Pradesh have cast ballots in the first stage of a critical election.

  • The decision by a deputy of Chongqing Communist Party chief Bo Xilai to go on leave is fanning rumors in China of a corruption scandal or political infighting.

  Americas

  • Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has announced plans to formally complain to the U.N. Security Council about British "militarization" of their dispute over the Falkland Islands, but Britain ruled out negotiations.

  • The Brazilian government is suing Twitter over user alerts about police speed traps and roadblocks aimed at combating drunk driving.

  • Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum stole some of Mitt Romney's momentum by winning the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses and a non-binding primary in Missouri.

  Middle East

  • The U.S. State Department may halve the size of its embassy in Iraq, which currently has a staff of nearly 16,000 people. 

  • The Iranian parliament has summoned President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to testify about "irregularities" in his management of the country's ailing economy.

  • Israel's main labor union has launched a rare general strike that is expected to cost the country hundreds of millions of dollars a day.  

  Africa

  • The Islamic militant group Boko Haram has claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing at a military facility in the northern Nigerian city of Kaduna.

  • Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir will inaugurate a governing body tasked with striking a peace deal in Darfur.

  • A new study finds that Somali piracy in the Indian Ocean is costing the global economy $7 billion a year. 

  
  

  STR/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: Syrian violence escalates as U.N. action collapses

  Posted: February 6, 2012, 3:31 pm by Uri Friedman

  Syrian violence escalates as U.N. action collapses

  Top story: There are fresh reports today of a heavy Syrian assault on the flashpoint city of Homs (pictured above during a protest on Friday), two days after Russia and China vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning Bashar al-Assad's crackdown and pressuring the Syrian president to step down. As activists report hundreds of deaths in Homs over the weekend, the state-run news agency is blaming "terrorists" for bombing a gas pipeline near the flashpoint city.

  Russia and China, meanwhile, are defending their vetoes. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has argued that supporting the U.N. resolution would have meant taking sides in a civil war, while a commentary in China's People's Daily noted that "simplistically supporting one side and suppressing the other" would "be sowing fresh seeds of disaster."

  Lavrov will hold talks with Assad in Damascus on Tuesday and call for the swift "implementation of democratic reforms whose time has come."

  Palestinian unity deal: In a news conference in Doha on Monday, the rival Palestinian movements Hamas and Fatah announced that they've formed an interim unity government led initially by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas ahead of elections. Israel and the West have said they will not negotiate with a Palestinian government that includes Hamas unless the group recognizes Israel and renounces violence.

  Europe

  • The Greek government has agreed to a new round of steep spending cuts and will resume crisis talks on Monday in an effort to secure bailout funds. 

  • Romanian Prime Minister Emil Boc has resigned in the face of protests against IMF-supported austerity measures.  

  • Finland has elected its first conservative head of state since 1956.

  Middle East

  • In an interview on Sunday, President Obama said he did not believe Israel had made a decision on whether to attack Iran's nuclear facilities and emphasized his support for a diplomatic solution to the standoff.

  • Egypt is putting 19 Americans -- including the son of U.S. Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood -- and several other foreigners on trial as part of a broader crackdown on nonprofit groups, in a move that has raised tensions with the United States.

  • In the latest development in Iraq's political crisis, a lawmaker in the country's Sunni-backed coalition says the Shiite-led government may take away his immunity from prosecution.

  Americas

  • Mexico's ruling National Action Party has chosen Josefina Vazquez Mota to run for president in July, making her the country's first female presidential candidate from a major party. 

  • Former Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega, who was extradited to Panama in December, has been moved from prison to a hospital after suffering a possible stroke.

  • Shoe-hurling protesters greeted outgoing Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh on Sunday when he emerged from a hotel in New York City, where he is receiving medical treatment.

  Asia

  • A 6.8-magnitude earthquake in the Philippines has killed at least 12 people.

  • Three Tibetan herders have reportedly set themselves on fire in the latest sign of unrest among Tibetans in Sichuan Province.

  • The Bureau of Investigative Journalism is reporting that CIA drone strikes on suspected militants in Pakistan are also killing rescuers and mourners.

  Africa

  • South Africa's ruling African National Congress has postponed final sentencing for the suspended Youth League leader Julius Malema. 

  • An inquiry into the mysterious death of Zimbabwean military leader Solomon Mujuru is winding down with many questions still unanswered.

  • Tuareg rebels who fought for Muammar al-Qaddafi are using weapons from the former Libyan leader's arsenal to reinvigorate their insurgency in Mali.

  
  

  AFP/Getty Images

• Iran isn't amused by Israeli Samsung ad

  Posted: February 3, 2012, 8:08 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  Israel isn't having much luck with commercials these days. First there was the government-sponsored ad campaign late last year to persuade Israelis living in the United States to return home, which was yanked when it caused an uproar in the American Jewish community. Now, Iranian lawmaker Arsalan Fat'hipour is telling Iran's PressTV that the country may impose a ban on products from South Korean electronics manufacturer Samsung over a commercial depicting Israelis accidentally destroying an Iranian nuclear facility.

  The ad couldn't come at a tenser time. Iranian leaders are accusing the Israeli spy agency Mossad of killing an Iranian nuclear scientist in January, and using increasingly heated rhetoric (just today, Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called Israel a "cancerous tumor" that must be "cut"). Meanwhile, the media is abuzz with reports that an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities could be imminent.

  In the commercial for the Israeli cable company HOT, four characters from the HOT television series Asfur, all (poorly) disguised as Iranian women, meet a Mossad agent in Iran who's watching the show on his Samsung tablet. In checking out the device's features, one of the characters accidentally presses a button that blows up a nearby nuclear plant.

  Here's the commercial:

  PressTV has expressed outrage not only with the ad but also with its underlying assumptions -- that Iran is a "primitive society" and that "Israel is powerful enough to easily destroy Iran's nuclear facilities or assassinate the country's nuclear scientists." Fat'hipour, the Iranian lawmaker, argues that Samsung produced the commercial to cozy up with Israel. But a Samsung spokesperson in Iran tells PressTV that HOT -- not Samsung -- produced the ad, which promotes a cable deal offering subscribers free Samsung tablets. HOT has informed CNN that it has no comment on the controversy.

  Of course, in the Middle East, any ad that veers toward the political is likely to be controversial. In 2009, for example, the Israel cell phone company Cellcom aired a commercial in which a soccer ball kicked by unseen Palestinians hits an Israeli military jeep patrolling the security barrier with the West Bank. The soldiers kick it back over the fence, only for the ball to return, sparking an impromptu soccer game among Israeli soldiers. "The ad has caused outrage among Palestinians and left-wing Israelis who accuse it of whitewashing the negative effects of the wall," ABC News noted at the time, adding that the ad agency that produced the commercial claimed that the spot was intended to show "how people can overcome obstacles between them to build friendship."

  Iran's tough words for Samsung, however, may be about more than just HOT's incendiary ad. Last month, the Korea Herald reported that the Iranian government had retaliated against South Korea's support for Western sanctions of Iranian oil imports by demanding that Korean companies remove their billboards in the capital. One of the targets of Tehran's wrath? Good old Samsung.

• Five things you can't do on Twitter in the United States

  Posted: February 2, 2012, 8:19 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  Caught the headlines recently about Twitter's new system for blocking tweets on a per-county basis and South Korea's indictment of an activist for reposting messages from the North Korean government's Twitter account? It makes us wonder: Just what are the red lines in the United States for using the microblogging service? After all, we know that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), FBI, and Air Force are all already monitoring Twitter or seeking to develop technology to do so. While the legal terrain here is murky, here are five behaviors you might want to avoid:

  • Threatening violence: Earlier this week, DHS agents detained Irish traveler Leigh Van Bryan and a friend at Los Angeles International Airport and sent them back to Europe after Bryan tweeted that he was going to "destroy America" and dig up Marilyn Monroe during his trip -- references, he later told officials, to partying and the comedy show Family Guy, respectively (the incident conjured up memories of other jokes gone awry, such as when the Onion enraged the U.S. Capitol Police by tweeting, "BREAKING: Witnesses reporting screams and gunfire heard inside Capitol building"). In 2009, FBI agents arrested an Oklahoma City man named Daniel Knight Hayden for threatening on Twitter to kill police officers during a Tea Party tax protest. Hayden was sentenced to eight months in prison.

  • Coordinating unlawful behavior: Pittsburgh police arrested a New Yorker named Elliot Madison for using Twitter to alert anti-capitalist protesters about police movements during a 2009 G-20 summit. The criminal complaint claimed that Madison had helped demonstrators engaged in unlawful behavior avoid arrest, though the charges were later dropped.

  • Pranking police: This past summer, the L.A. Sheriff's Department opened a criminal investigation after the rapper The Game urged his 580,000 followers to call a number -- the department's Compton station, to be precise -- if they wanted an internship with him. The hundreds of calls that followed "overwhelmed the emergency phone system and delayed emergency service," according to the Los Angeles Times (the department ultimately decided not to pursue charges). Twitters accounts impersonating police departments in Virginia and Texas have also been shut down.

  • Cyberbullying: Last week, police in northwest Arkansas arrested three girls and one boy who were allegedly sending vulgar and derogatory messages from Twitter accounts.

  • Not tweeting: The manager for teen pop star Justin Bieber and an Island Def Jam Records executive were arrested a couple of years ago for not immediately cancelling an appearance by Bieber at a Long Island mall over Twitter, as police requested afters fans grew unruly. Prosecutors charged the manager, "Scooter" Braun, with reckless endangerment and criminal nuisance but later dropped the charges in exchange for Bieber recording a public service announcement on cyberbullying.

• 2012: The darkest Falklands anniversary yet?

  Posted: February 1, 2012, 11:01 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  My, how the times have changed.

  In 1992, ten years after Britain beat back an Argentine invasion of the Falkland Islands and two years after the two sides resumed diplomatic relations, Argentine President Carlos Menem delivered a speech on the anniversary of the bloody conflict. "Sooner or later, maybe before the year 2000, we will recover the Malvinas Islands without shedding a drop of blood," he pledged, using his country's term for the South Atlantic islands off Argentina's eastern coast, which Britain has controlled since 1833. The Los Angeles Times observed at the time that both Britain and Argentina seemed eager to "negotiate patiently" on everything from trade to petroleum exploration to the conservation of fisheries around the Falklands.  

  Fast forward to 2012, the 30th anniversary of the war. Prince William, a Royal Air Force helicopter pilot, is flying to the Falklands tonight to begin a six-week mission as Britain prepares to dispatch an advanced warship to the islands, prompting Argentina's Foreign Ministry to declare that Britain is "militariz[ing]" the conflict and sending Queen Elizabeth II's grandson "in the uniform of a conquistador."

  The row comes after Argentina persuaded a South American trading bloc to prevent ships flying the Falklands flag from docking in their ports, threatened to cut the only air link between the islands and South America, and started a "squid war" by instructing Argentine fishermen to catch the creatures (which, along with sheep, are critical to the archipelago's economy) before they reached the Falklands. British Prime Minister David Cameron responded to these actions by accusing Argentina of "colonialism" since Falkland Islanders "want to remain British."

  So what explains this bellicose, nationalistic behavior by both sides regarding a territory with a mere 3,000 inhabitants? Britain's decision to authorize offshore oil prospecting in the Falklands in 2010 has surely played a role, as has the United Kingdom's economic malaise coupled with Argentina's rapid (if checkered) economic growth. In 2002 -- the 20th anniversary of the Falklands War -- the roles were reversed. As Argentina struggled to recover from a crippling economic crisis, Reuters reported that many Argentine politicians "skipped public ceremonies commemorating the war because they were afraid of being heckled by angry crowds suffering from rising unemployment and bank account freezes."

  Now Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, emboldened by a resounding reelection victory, has made the Falklands a centerpiece of her foreign policy. In its statement this week, Argentina's Foreign Ministry accused Britain of taking an aggressive stance toward the Falklands to distract the public from spending cuts related to "structural crisis and high unemployment." And indeed, the Financial Times notes that some analysts believe Britain -- and particularly its Falklands air base -- may be vulnerable to an Argentine invasion because of Royal Navy cuts and the government's decision to scrap its only aircraft carrier. By sending the HMS Dauntless destroyer to the Falklands, the paper explains, Britain may be leaving "nothing to chance" as the anniversary of the war approaches this spring. 

  In fact, the anniversaries have been growing tenser for some time, as Britain has repeatedly refused to acquiesce to Argentine demands for U.N.-sponsored negotiations on the sovereignty of the islands. In 2007 -- the 25th anniversary of the conflict -- frustration over Britain's rejection of talks spurred the Argentine government to reassert its claim to the Falklands, in a move that seemed rather toothless since the claim was already baked into Argentina's constitution.  

  But Argentina's current measures are packing more of a punch. And while a renewal of hostilities may be unlikely, more than just squid has already been caught in the diplomatic crossfire. As the Guardian points out today, Falkland Islanders are contending with "higher food prices and a growing sense of encirclement" even as Kirchner and Cameron score political points. As John Fowler, deputy editor of the Falklands Island-based Penguin News, wrote earlier this month:

  You could say we feel like the duck in the basket in the traditional gaucho game of 'pato.' This poor creature used to end up belonging to one side or the other, but was likely to be battered to death in the process.

• Morning Brief: Security Council debate on Syria sputters

  Posted: February 1, 2012, 3:17 pm by Uri Friedman

  Security Council debate on Syria sputters

  Top news: Arab and Western states spent Tuesday calling on the U.N. Security Council to adopt a resolution urging Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down and delegate power to his deputy over his crackdown on an 11-month-old uprising, which has grown increasingly violent. But Russia and China, both veto-wielding Security Council members, remain unconvinced.

  Vladimir Chizhov, Moscow's envoy to the European Union, explained on Wednesday that Russia would veto the draft resolution unless it explicitly ruled out military intervention in Syria, while Li Baodong, the Chinese ambassador to the United Nations, told the Security Council that China opposed the "use of force" and "pushing for forced regime change" in Syria. "Behind all the arguments lurked the ghost of Libya," the New York Times observes.

  In her remarks to the Security Council, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton claimed that Libya was a "false analogy." The plan for a democratic transition in Syria "represents the best efforts of Syria's neighbors to chart a way forward," she explained. 

  Election 2012: Mitt Romney regained momentum in the Republican primary by securing over 46 percent of the vote in Florida, with Newt Gingrich coming in a distant second with just under 32 percent. Romney declared that the competitive primary is preparing him for a general election victory, while Gingrich pledged to contest every state.

  Asia

  • During a visit to Afghanistan, Pakistan's foreign minister dismissed charges in a leaked NATO report that her country supports the Taliban, calling the allegations "old wine in new bottles."

  • The International Atomic Energy Agency is supporting new stress tests to determine whether Japan's nuclear facilities can weather another emergency.

  • Bedouin tribesman in Egypt have released 25 Chinese workers kidnapped in an attack that came shortly after 29 Chinese workers were captured in Sudan.

  Middle East

  • Iran says it conducted "constructive and positive talks" with U.N. nuclear inspectors and promised more negotiations but released no additional details about the visit.

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defeated an ultranationalist rival in an election for the leadership of his right-wing Likud party.

  • Hundreds of young Muslim Brotherhood members blocked protesters from reaching the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated parliament in Cairo, resulting in more than 70 injuries.

  Americas

  • U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper listed Iranian aggression, cyberattacks, Mideast volatility, North Korea's nuclear program, and drug-fueled violence in Mexico and Central America as top concerns.  

  • Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff met with Fidel and Raul Castro in Cuba as part of an effort to strengthen financial ties with the island.

  • Mexico's political leaders are up in arms over the discovery of $1.9 million in cash in a state official's luggage at an airport.

  Europe

  • Four men inspired by al Qaeda and Anwar al-Awlaki have admitted to a plot to bomb the London Stock Exchange. 

  • WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is appealing his extradition to Sweden at Britain's Supreme Court. 

  • Opponents of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin brandished a giant banner opposite the Kremlin reading, "Putin, go away" before police removed the sign.

  Africa

  • Deadly clashes have erupted in Senegal's capital between police and opposition supporters protesting President Abdoulaye Wade's reelection bid, as U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed concern about the violence.

  • Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe condemned African leaders for recognizing Libya's National Transitional Council after an African Union summit.

  • Zimbabwe is combating an outbreak of typhoid that has afflicted more than 1,500 people. 

  
  

  Mario Tama/Getty Images

• Twitter's censorship cheerleaders

  Posted: January 30, 2012, 9:15 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  When Twitter unveiled a new system last week to censor specific tweets in specific countries if the content violates local laws, many people reacted in anger. Some spent Saturday boycotting the service. Reporters Without Borders penned a letter denouncing the move. International microblogging celebrities such as Ai Weiwei and Mahmoud Salem took Twitter to task. "Thank you for the #censorship, #twitter, with love from the governments of #Syria, #Bahrain, #Iran, #Turkey, #China, #Saudi and friends," Swedish Twitter user Björn Nilsson wrote.

  In fact, Nilsson wasn't so far off. Since Twitter's announcement, voices in countries where free speech is tightly restricted have rushed to the company's defense (others claim Twitter's new rules are actually good for free speech).

  In Thailand, which has strict lèse majesté laws to punish those who criticize the royal family, the information and communication technology minister, Jeerawan Boonperm, called Twitter's new policy a "welcome development" and told the Bangkok Post that she would be following up with the company to discuss ways to collaborate, as her ministry already does with Google and Facebook. The Next Web points out that Thailand has leaned on Facebook and YouTube in the past to remove content that violates local laws.

  In China, where Twitter is blocked, the state-run Global Times published an editorial by Xu Ming applauding Twitter, a "service reputed for its free-wheeling and libertarian ways in the Western world." (Some have interpreted Twitter's move as an effort to make inroads in China, though the Electronic Frontier Foundation's Jillian York told Foreign Policy on Friday that Twitter's new system may have more to do with the company setting up offices in Europe.) Twitter is acting shrewdly, Xu argued:

  It is important for it to respect the cultures and ideas of different countries so as to blend into local environments harmoniously....

  It is impossible to have boundless freedom, even on the Internet and even in countries that make freedom their main selling point.

  The announcement of Twitter might have shown that it has already realized the fact and made a choice between being an idealistic political tool as many hope and following pragmatic commercial rules as a company.

  In a move that may or may not be related to Twitter's new policy, the editor in chief of the Global Times, Hu Xijin, joined the microblogging service over the weekend, drawing a sharp response from Ai Weiwei. "Welcome to forbidden land," the dissident artist tweeted at Hu.

  Thailand and China aren't alone. Anton Korobkov-Zemlyansky, a member of the Russian Public Chamber, a government oversight committee, told the state-run Voice of Russia that Twitter is just "trying to protect itself from possible scandals or lawsuits." He said those who criticize threats to free speech on the web are guided more by emotion than reason. "We are already living in a rather censored world," he explained, adding that "Russian laws are rather liberal" when it comes to censorship. The Moscow Times, meanwhile, quoted Russian activists condemning Twitter's decision or dismissing it as hollow. "Twitter is too fast," blogger Ilya Varlamov noted. "By the time the government would get around to blocking content, it would already be too old to matter."

  Iran's PressTV, for its part, has subtly come out against Twitter and helped feed speculation that Saudi Arabia, Iran's archrival, helped shape the company's new policy. The state-run news outlet noted that Saudi Prince AlWaleed bin Talal recently invested $300 million in Twitter -- a transaction that "sparked outrage among rights activists who said it would eventually lead to the restriction of freedom of speech." Twitter's decision comes as "Saudi Arabian and Bahraini protesters heavily rely on the social networking site for their anti-government protests," PressTV observed, conventiently overlooking use of the service by Syrian activists. 

  So there you have it. Thailand and China on one side of the free speech debate and Iran on the other, with Twitter improbably in the middle.  

• Morning Brief: Fighting engulfs Damascus suburbs

  Posted: January 30, 2012, 3:10 pm by Uri Friedman

  Fighting engulfs Damascus suburbs

  Top story: Syrian troops and tanks are striking back at the Free Syrian Army outside Damascus in clashes that killed at least 26 people over the weekend and represent the most intense fighting around the capital in the 10-month uprising, according to activists.

  Reuters reports that the Syrian military has pushed back rebel forces in the town of Rankous and the suburbs of Hamouriyeh, Kfar Batna, and Saqba, though the violence isn't limited to the outskirts of Damascus. Syria's state news agency is reporting that "terrorists" blew up a gas pipeline near the border with Lebanon, and residents of the southern city of Deraa are also reporting deadly clashes.

  The turmoil comes after the Arab League suspended its monitoring mission in the country. On Sunday, Arab League chief Nabil al-Araby left for New York to seek U.N. Security Council support for an Arab peace plan, which has encountered resistance from China and Russia.

  European debt crisis: European Union leaders are meeting in Brussels today to focus on "growth-friendly consolidation and job-friendly growth" rather than simply austerity, as a national strike against austerity measures paralyzes Belgium.

  Middle East

  • Hamas leader Khaled Meshal met with King Abdullah II in his first official visit to Jordan since the Jordanian government shut down the group's headquarters in Amman in 1999. 

  • Iraq's Sunni leaders have decided to end their boycott of parliament in a sign that the country's sectarian political crisis may yet be resolved.

  • Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency have launched a three-day tour in Iran as Iranian officials send conflicting signals about whether they'll halt oil exports to the West.

  Europe

  • Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and his coalition partners appear poised to support more austerity measures and reforms that will help the country secure a second bailout. 

  • Rogue UBS trader Kweku Adoboli has pleaded not guilty to charges of false accounting and fraud.

  • French President Nicolas Sarkozy unveiled a plan to raise consumer taxes but held back from announcing a reelection bid.

  Americas

  • An Ontario court has found three members of an Afghan Canadian family guilty of the "honor killings" of four other family members.

  • Raul Castro declared that a multiparty system would not be part of the government's reforms because it would expose the country to U.S. imperialism.

  • Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is threatening to nationalize banks that don't fund government-supported agricultural projects.

  Africa

  • The Sudanese military says it's rescued 14 Chinese workers kidnapped by rebels in southern Sudan, but Chinese officials have cast doubt on the claim. 

  • Senegal's highest court has ruled that President Abdoulaye Wade can run for a third term in office.

  • African leaders gathered in Ethiopia have failed to elect a new chairman of the African Union Commission.

  Asia

  • Pakistan's highest court has granted Husain Haqqani, the embattled former ambassador to the United States, permission to travel abroad.

  • The Japanese government says its rapidly aging population will decline by 30 percent by 2060.

  • Soldiers involved in a failed mutiny in Papua New Guinea have laid down their arms in exchange for pardons.

  
  

  Louai Beshara/AFP/Getty Images

• Is Newt's zero-gravity sex idea any good?

  Posted: January 26, 2012, 12:20 am by Uri Friedman

  

  This author cannot answer the question posed above from experience. But space sex has been a kind of final frontier for mankind (and a bonanza for headline writers: See "Houston, We Have a Problem"). And Newt Gingrich's contribution to this grand (dare we say grandiose?) quest has resurfaced in the wake of his pledge yesterday in Florida to establish an American colony on the moon by the end of his second term.

  In the mid-1990s, Gingrich predicted in his book To Renew America that "space tourism will be a common fact of life during the adulthood of children born this year, that honeymoons in space will be the vogue by 2020." Then came the subtle sex allusion: "Imagine weightlessness and its effects and you will understand some of the attractions," Gingrich mused.

  But is this really an attractive proposition? Empirical evidence is in short supply, since it's unclear whether -- beyond the fantasy worlds of Isaac Asimov and Moonraker -- anyone has actually had sex in space. Rumors of astronaut intercourse or weightless sex experiments -- fueled by hoaxes such as a fake NASA report cited in Pierre Kohler's The Final Mission -- have never been proven. In 2010, NASA commander Alan Poindexter responded to a question about space sex by saying that he and his fellow crew members were "professionals" who didn't have personal relationships. Last April, a Russian expert told the Interfax news agency that "there is no official or unofficial evidence that there were instances of sexual intercourse or the carrying out of sexual experiments" in the history of Russian space exploration.

  All this hasn't stopped journalists and researchers from investigating the subject. And the consensus appears to be that space sex would be supremely difficult -- and pretty lousy -- for a variety of reasons:

  • Privacy: When the United States sent the first married couple into space in 1992, they worked opposite 12-hour shifts and shared a tiny shuttle with five other astronauts. "You have cameras all over, people talking to you," astronaut Bonnie Dunbar told the Associated Press at the time. "You hope you can go into the waste-management system (toilet) and close the curtains for maybe about 10 minutes of privacy."

  • Choreography: "It's a pretty messy environment," NASA physician Jim Logan explained in 2006. "And for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction." But, Logan added, "I can well imagine how compelling, inspiring, and quite frankly stimulating choreographed sex in zero-G might be in the hands of a skilled and talented cinematographer with appropriate lighting and music." Maybe that's what Gingrich had in mind?

  • Physiological problems: Space travel can induce nausea, decrease blood pressure (and hence the size of certain body parts), and make people perspire more. "The moisture associated with sexual congress could pool as floating droplets," Alan Boyle noted at MSNBC in 2006. How romantic.   

  • Procreation: Russian studies involving pregnant rats indicate that fetal skeletons may not fully develop in space (fish and frog eggs have also been launched into orbit), and scientists worry that microgravity could have deleterious effects on the formation of neural connections and immune functions. Cosmic radiation is another concern; last summer, NASA researchers concluded that proton particles would probably sterilize any female embryo conceived in space and reduce male sperm count unless scientists develop an effective shield. 

  We may not know how humans would respond to these daunting challenges, but we do know how rats have. In 1979, Russian scientists placed male and female rats into a "mating chamber" separated by a partition and sent them into orbit. The rats didn't mate when the doors opened two days later, though it was never entirely clear whether it was low gravity that killed the mood.

  There are potential solutions, of course. Future space travelers could create artificial gravity. Or there's the Velcro-outfitted "2Suit," which sci-fi novelist Vanna Bonta invented to facilitate weightless intimacy. For a sense of just how difficult space sex might be, check out this clip from a History Channel documentary on space sex in which Bonta and her husband struggle to kiss in their 2Suits (begins at 6:15):

  But don't let these obstacles deter you, Newt! America, as you noted last night, is a country of big, bold ideas. A future of space tourism and sexless honeymoons beckons.

• Mo money mo problems: Venezuela edition

  Posted: January 26, 2012, 8:31 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  Look at all of those $1 and $5 (and $2?) bills! It's a bold statement from the 14-year-old daughter of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. But Venezuelans aren't exactly finding Rosinés Chávez's antics cute.

  This week, Rosinés posted the picture above on the photo-sharing app Instagram, drawing instant ire from Venezuelans who contrasted the message with her father's critiques of U.S. capitalism or have struggled for years to change local currency, bolívares, into dollars.

  In 2003, Chávez imposed tight currency restrictions in an effort to limit capital flight. The unpopular government agency CADIVI now prevents individuals from purchasing more than $3,000 for travel and $400 for web purchases a year -- all at the fixed rate of 4.3 bolívares per dollar (of course, Rosinés could just be flaunting her annual allotment of greenbacks). According to Bloomberg, those who don't receive state approval and are essentially blacklisted from the system seek refuge in the black market, where they pay roughly 8.5 bolívares per dollar. Importers often turn to a currency market run by the central bank that offers a rate of 5.3 bolívares per dollar.

  Rosinés has been in the public eye before -- posing on the arm of teen prince Justin Bieber and dutifully uploading it to her Bieber-crazed Twitter account -- but this time her father, whose approval rating is hovering around 55 percent, is running for reelection. And as Foreign Affairs explains today, the opposition, led by the 39-year-old lawyer-turned-governor Henrique Capriles Radonski, is gaining momentum.

  Rosinés has her defenders -- in particular her mother Marisabel, who divorced Chávez in 2003 and recently tweeted, "I told her that her mistake wasn't to take [the picture] but rather to upload it to a medium where there are ignorant people who don't respect others." But the photo has also given birth to a Tumblr --  #Rosinesing -- featuring people mocking Rosinés with other items that are hard to find in Venezuela such as cooking oil, medicine, and, well, Rosinés:

  

  

  

  Yes, if there's one thing that's not in short supply in Venezuela, it's satire.

• Apruebo este mensaje: Gingrich and Romney spar in Spanish

  Posted: January 25, 2012, 2:00 am by Uri Friedman

  

  With less than a week to go before the Florida primary, the battle for the state's Hispanic vote is intensifying. Romney currently has a 15-point lead over Gingrich among Latino voters in the Sunshine State, but 1 in 5 Hispanic Republicans are undecided. And Newt's not giving up on them. 

  During the GOP debate on Monday night, Gingrich recommended more covert operations to overthrow the Cuban government and suggested that Fidel Castro is going straight to hell after Mitt Romney explained that he would "thanks heavens" when Castro finally "returned to his maker." (In an op-ed today, Castro retorted that the Republican race was the "greatest competition of idiocy and ignorance" in history.) On Wednesday, Gingrich ridiculed Romney's positions on immigration during an interview with the Spanish-langugage television network Univision.

  Gingrich may have gone a step too far, however, in releasing a Spanish-language radio ad that called Romney "anti-immigrant" and accused him of "using Castro phrases" -- a reference to Romney mistakenly describing a Castro catchphrase -- patria o muerte, venceremos! -- as a slogan for a free Cuba in 2007. Gingrich, the ad explained, has "committed himself to the Hispanic people" by supporting the U.S. embargo on Cuba and the prosecution of the Castro brothers for shooting down planes operated by a Cuban exile group.

  The ad angered Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), who noted that "neither of these two men is anti-immigrant," and the Gingrich campaign decided to pull the ad today in response. When asked about the spot during his own Univision interview on Wednesday, Romney criticized Gingrich for using "terrible terms" (a video that touches on most of the themes in the radio ad and appears to be endorsed by Gingrich still exists on YouTube).

  Still, the Romney campaign has been lashing out at Gingrich in Spanish as well. Earlier this month, Romney released ads in Florida in which Craig Romney affirmed his father's commitment to reinvigorating American values (in pretty decent Spanish, no less) and Cuban-American Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen praised Romney for standing up to the "despotic forces" of Fidel Castro and Hugo Chávez.

  But the Romney campaign went on the offensive today, attacking Gingrich for being soft on travel restrictions to Cuba and calling Spanish the "language of the ghetto" in 2007 (Gingrich later apologized in Spanish for the remarks, though it was never entirely clear that he had been referring to Spanish in his original comments). Gingrich, the narrator declares, is no Reagan conservative:

  Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Gingrich said that he would not change the failed policy of Barack Obama on travel to Cuba that has served to fill the Castro regime's coffers and increase repression on the island. I don't think Reagan would agree with Gingrich.... And Reagan would never have offended Hispanics, as Gingrich did, by saying that Spanish is the language of the ghetto.

  And Gingrich doesn't appear to be shrinking from the attacks, either. According to the Miami Herald, the former House Speaker began airing a Spanish-language television ad last night that emphasizes his dedication to the Hispanic community and Ronald Reagan's values:

  Aren't presidential campaigns just bizarre? One week you're criticizing your opponent for speaking French, and the next you're fiercely competing to see who can speak more Spanish.

• What's new in the latest speculation over Israel attacking Iran

  Posted: January 25, 2012, 7:05 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  The New York Times Magazine is out today with a 7,585-word piece by Ronen Bergman on whether Israel will attack Iran. After speaking with top Israeli civilian, military, and intelligence leaders, the Israeli journalist arrives at a frightening conclusion: "Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012."

  Of course, we've heard this claim before. In August 2009, Micah Zenko warned at the Los Angeles Times that if Iran failed to respond to international proposals on its nuclear program by September, the "world should be prepared for an Israeli attack on Iran's suspected nuclear weapons facilities." In September 2010, the Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg noted that "one day next spring," Israeli officials might very well inform their U.S. counterparts that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had dispatched fighter jets to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. John Bolton, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, has repeatedly issued timelines regarding an Israeli strike on Iran. Anshel Pfeffer predicts an attack this spring.

  But Bergman's report does serve up some new, newsworthy information that's worth highlighting:

  Three Questions: Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak explains that there are three questions Israel must answer in the affirmative before it will order a strike (Bergman adds that some Israeli leaders are now answering yes to all three):

  1. Does Israel have the ability to cause severe damage to Iran's nuclear sites and bring about a major delay in the Iranian nuclear project? And can the military and the Israeli people withstand the inevitable counterattack?

  2. Does Israel have overt or tacit support, particularly from America, for carrying out an attack?

  3. Have all other possibilities for the containment of Iran's nuclear threat been exhausted, bringing Israel to the point of last resort? If so, is this the last opportunity for an attack?

  Point of no return: Barak says that sometime in the coming year, it will become impossible for Israel to halt Iran's nuclear program even if it wants to do so. He believes Iran is close to entering an "immunity zone" -- a point, in Bergman's words, "when Iran's accumulated know-how, raw materials, experience, and equipment (as well as the distribution of materials among its underground facilities) -- will be such that an attack could not derail the nuclear project." Israel estimates that Iran is only nine months away from this point, Bergman adds, while the United States has a timeframe of 15 months.

  Iran's nuclear readiness: "It is believed that Iran's nuclear scientists estimate that it will take them nine months, from the moment they are given the order, to assemble their first explosive device and another six months to be able to reduce it to the dimensions of a payload for their Shahab-3 missiles, which are capable of reaching Israel," Bergman writes.

  Israeli capabilities: While Israel believes that its manned and unmanned aircraft "have the capacity to cause enough damage to set the Iranian nuclear project back by three to five years," Bergman explains, others -- like Mossad operative Rafi Eitan -- don't believe that Israel has the capabilities to attack Iran effectively and definitively. 

  Natanz leak: Bergman reports what until now had generally been the subject of speculation: When Israel discovered the existence of an Iranian uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz in 2002, then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon decided not to authorize an attack. Instead, Bergman explains, "information about the site was leaked to a dissident Iranian group, the National Resistance Council." The news eventually made its way to the International Atomic Energy Agency, which sent a team of inspectors to the site.

  Two viruses: We've all heard about Stuxnet, but Bergman writes that "two lethal computer viruses" infected "the computer system of the nuclear project and cause widespread damage, knocking out a large number of centrifuges."

  American suspicion: Bergman quotes a 2009 memo in which an anonymous American official notes, "It is unclear if the Israelis firmly believe [that Iran would have a complete nuclear arsenal by 2012] or are using worst-case estimates to raise greater urgency from the United States." But Bergman adds that "Western intelligence agencies, in particular the CIA, have moved closer to Israel's assessments of the Iranian nuclear project."

  Israeli suspicion: The Israelis, for their part, are worried that the United States has abandoned its aggressive posture toward Iran. "The Israelis find evidence of this in the shift in language used by the administration, from 'threshold prevention' -- meaning American resolve to stop Iran from having a nuclear-energy program that could allow for the ability to create weapons -- to 'weapons prevention,' which means the conditions can exist, but there is an American commitment to stop Iran from assembling an actual bomb," Bergman writes.

  Egypt analogue: Bergman quotes a fascinating conversation between former Mossad chief Meir Amit and former CIA chief in Tel Aviv John Hadden in 1967, in the lead-up to the Six-Day War. Amit argues that Israel should preemptively attack Egypt and Hadden responds, "Help us by giving us a good reason to come in on your side. Get them to fire at something, a ship, for example." According to Bergman, the exchange demonstrates that "since 1967, the unspoken understanding that America should agree, at least tacitly, to Israeli military actions has been at the center of relations between the two countries."

  Latin America connection: Moshe Ya'alon, Israel's vice prime minister and minister of strategic affairs, suggests that Iran is establishing bases in Latin America and developing relationships with drug cartels along the U.S.-Mexican border to smuggle ordnance into the United States for use in attacks. "It is, of course, important for Ya'alon to argue that this is not just an Israeli-Iranian dispute, but a threat to America's well-being," Bergman points out.

• Morning Brief: Navy SEALs free two hostages in Somalia

  Posted: January 25, 2012, 3:11 pm by Uri Friedman

  Navy SEALs free two hostages in Somalia

  Top news: U.S. officials are confirming this morning that American commandos rescued an American and a Dane in Somalia on Wednesday after a gun battle with pirates holding them hostage. The Navy SEAL teams, who were dropped into the pirate camp by helicopter, killed nine captors and detained several others, while not suffering any casualties themselves. "This is yet another message to the world that the United States of America will stand strongly against any threats to our people," President Obama said in a statement.

  The aid workers -- Jessica Buchanan (pictured above) and Poul Hagen Thisted -- were kidnapped by gunmen in October as they headed to the airport in the town of Galkaiyo in central Somalia. At the time, they were working for the Danish Demining Group.

  The news appears to explain Obama's rather cryptic greeting to U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta last night as the president strode into the House chambers on Tuesday evening to deliver his State of the Union address. "Leon, good job tonight," Obama said. He made no mention of the rescue in his speech.

  State of the Union: President Obama focused on jobs, income inequality, and the tax code in his address, though he also had tough words for Syria, Iran, and China. "America remains the one indispensible nation in world affairs -- and as long as I'm president, I intend to keep it that way," he declared.

  Middle East

  • Tens of thousands of Egyptians -- including followers of the Muslim Brotherhood -- have poured into Cairo's Tahrir Square to mark the first anniversary of the Egyptian revolution.

  • Gulf monitors have left Syria, as the Arab League seeks U.N. support for its peace plan and defiant Syrian officials reject the proposal.  

  • Forces loyal to Libya's interim government have been expelled from the town of Bani Walid, though it's unclear whether they were battling local fighters or pro-Qaddafi fighters.

  Americas

  • A military court in California sentenced a Marine who is thought to have played a key role in a 2005 massacre in the Iraqi town of Haditha to a reduction in rank but no jail time as part of plea deal, angering many Iraqis.

  • A Stratfor report suggests that the Zetas have overtaken the rival Sinaloa cartel as Mexico's biggest drug gang.

  • Opposition politician Leopoldo Lopez has pulled out of Venezuela's presidential race and thrown his support to fellow opposition leader Henrique Capriles.

  Asia

  • Japan has posted its first annual trade deficit in more than 30 years.

  • Activists say two more Tibetans died on Wednesday in clashes between Chinese security forces and protesters in Sichuan province.

  • A New Zealand court has denied bail to the founder of the file-sharing website Megaupload.

  Europe

  • Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond has officially begun the process of developing a referendum on independence from England by launching a formal consultation with the electorate.

  • WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is planning to host his own TV show on a Russian state satellite channel.

  • Pope Benedict XVI praised silent reflection in an age in which people are "bombarded" by information on the web, though he also conceded that the Internet had its benefits.

  Africa

  • In a move that may reduce its dependence on Sudan, South Sudan has struck a deal with Kenya to build an oil pipeline.

  • Zambia has seized control of the country's biggest telecom company.

  • Nigerian forces arrested 158 suspected members of the Islamist militant group Boko Haram in the northern city of Kano.

  
  

  Danish Refugee Council

• Highlights from Obama's SOTU address

  Posted: January 24, 2012, 6:00 am by Uri Friedman

  

  As John Harwood notes at the New York Times, tonight's address by President Obama was as much a "state of the campaign" as it was a State of the Union. But while the president did focus on hot-button issues such as jobs and the economy (he called keeping the American dream alive the "defining issue of our time"), he also spent considerable time on foreign policy. Here are some of the highlights:

  OPENING/CLOSING

  Obama has started all three of his State of the Union addresses with a call for unity. But he's done so in different ways. In 2010, Obama meditated on America's time-tested ability to transcend hardship. In 2011, he reflected on how the shooting of Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords had reminded Americans of the ties that bind them together. 

  This year, Obama began with foreign policy, noting how the American military has withdrawn from Iraq, killed Osama bin Laden, taken out some of al Qaeda's top lieutenants, and halted the Taliban's momentum in Afghanistan. He urged Americans to collaborate on education, energy, security, and the economy just as U.S. soldiers do every day:

  These achievements are a testament to the courage, selflessness, and teamwork of America's Armed Forces. At a time when too many of our institutions have let us down, they exceed all expectations. They're not consumed with personal ambition. They don't obsess over their differences. They focus on the mission at hand. They work together.

  He circled back to this theme at the end of the speech, conveniently working in once again that, yes, bin Laden is dead:

  One of my proudest possessions is the flag that the SEAL Team took with them on the mission to get bin Laden. On it are each of their names. Some may be Democrats.  Some may be Republicans. But that doesn't matter.... So it is with America.

  Some took issue with the analogy. As the National Review's Rich Lowry tweeted, "A democratic society can never be like a well-trained SEAL team."

  FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM

  In each one of his State of the Union addresses, Obama has linked the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan with the fight against al Qaeda, arguing that withdrawing from Iraq has enabled America to dismantle terrorist networks and keep the Taliban from turning Afghanistan into a safe haven for those who want to attack the United States. In 2010, Obama explained that "as we take the fight to al Qaeda, we are resposibly leaving Iraq to its people." In 2011, he turned to al Qaeda immediately after proclaiming that the Iraq war was coming to an end. This year was no different:

  Ending the Iraq war has allowed us to strike decisive blows against our enemies. From Pakistan to Yemen, the al Qaeda operatives who remain are scrambling, knowing that they can't escape the reach of the United States of America. 

  From this position of strength, we've begun to wind down the war in Afghanistan.... This transition to Afghan lead will continue, and we will build an enduring partnership with Afghanistan, so that it is never again a source of attacks against America.  

  ARAB SPRING

  Obama devoted one-and-a-half paragraphs to the uprisings in the Middle East but didn't explicitly mention America's role in the military intervention in Libya that toppled Muammar al-Qaddafi -- the centerpiece of what some have described as the Obama administration's doctrine of "leading from behind."

  The takeaway line may have been Obama's singling out of Syria:

  In Syria, I have no doubt that the Assad regime will soon discover that the forces of change can't be reversed, and that human dignity can't be denied.

  But Obama did not say whether his administration would take any more concrete steps to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad see the light.

  IRAN

  During an election year in which the Republican candidates have been taking a hard line on Iran's nuclear weapons program, Obama talked tough on Iran, using words that seemed a far cry from his declaration in Cairo in 2009 that he was willing to pursue talks with Iran "without preconditions on the basis of mutual respect." Here's what he said tonight:

  The regime is more isolated than ever before; its leaders are faced with crippling sanctions, and as long as they shirk their responsibilities, this pressure will not relent. Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal. But a peaceful resolution of this issue is still possible, and far better, and if Iran changes course and meets its obligations, it can rejoin the community of nations.  

  CHINA

  Obama also had harsh words -- wrapped in a new presidential initiative, no less -- for China, which has been a favorite target for this year's crop of Republican candidates as well: 

  I will go anywhere in the world to open new markets for American products. And I will not stand by when our competitors don't play by the rules. We've brought trade cases against China at nearly twice the rate as the last administration -- and it's made a difference. Over a thousand Americans are working today because we stopped a surge in Chinese tires. But we need to do more. It's not right when another country lets our movies, music, and software be pirated. It's not fair when foreign manufacturers have a leg up on ours only because they're heavily subsidized.

  Tonight, I'm announcing the creation of a Trade Enforcement Unit that will be charged with investigating unfair trade practices in countries like China. There will be more inspections to prevent counterfeit or unsafe goods from crossing our borders.

  ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT

  While Obama made one of his few ad libs of the night when it came to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict -- noting that "our iron-clad -- and I mean iron-clad -- commitment to Israel's security has meant the closest military cooperation between our two countries in history," he didn't say anything more about the Middle East peace process. But that actually shouldn't be surprising. Obama didn't address the conflict at all in his previous two State of the Union addresses. President George W. Bush, by contrast, discussed Israeli-Palestinian peace in 5 of his 7 State of the Union addresses.  

  PACIFIC PIVOT

  The Obama administration's much-vaunted strategic pivot to Asia merited only ten words: "We've made it clear that America is a Pacific power." What does that say about America's true geopolitical priorities? Pundits, have at it.

  AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM

  Republican rivals have tried to paint Obama as a kind of American exceptionalism denier. As Mitt Romney put it, "Our president thinks America's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president. This is going to be an American century."

  Obama shot back on Tuesday evening, declaring that, "America remains the one indispensable nation in world affairs -- and as long as I'm president, I intend to keep it that way." The line recalled President Bill Clinton's exhortation in his 1997 State of the Union for Americans to "do what it takes to remain the indispensible nation, to keep America strong, secure, and prosperous for another 50 years."

  In his State of the Union address, Obama proclaimed that "America is back" and that "anyone who tells you that America is in decline or that our influence has waned doesn't know what they're talking about."

  Lastly, we'd be remiss if we didn't mention the most cringe-inducing moment of the night: Obama's quip that, in the case of a bad regulation classifying milk as an oil, "I guess it was worth crying over spilled milk." The lame joke conjured up memories of Obama complaining in his 2011 State of the Union address that the Interior Department oversees salmon when they're in fresh water while the Commerce Department handles them when they're in saltwater. "I hear it gets even more complicated once they're smoked," he added.

  Yes, the byzantine workings of government may be bad for the American people. But boy do they soften up a crowd! 

• Why do police douse protesters with colored water?

  Posted: January 24, 2012, 10:39 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  As Egypt prepares to mark the first anniversary of the Egyptian revolution on Wednesday, with activists mapping out protest routes and the ruling military council partially lifting the country's emergency laws and releasing prisoners in apparent goodwill gestures, Al-Masry Al-Youm is reporting something rather odd. Anonymous security sources tell the Egyptian newspaper that security forces are planning to use batons, loudspeakers, and "colored chemicals that will stain one's skin for six months" against "those perceived to be violating the law."

  It's the colored chemicals in particular that's gotten picked up by Twitter users in Egypt, generating a mixture of outrage ("colored chemicals you idiots?!!!!!), humor ("so it's paint ball fight now?"), advice ("Vaseline reduces the effects of colored water") and skepticism ("if it's real we wouldn't be finding out about it a week beforehand"). Several people have tweeted this footage of Ugandan police using water cannons to spray opposition activists with pink dye in Kampala in May, after rising food and fuel prices sparked "walk to work" protests.

  According to Maki Haberfeld, chair of the Department of Law, Police Science, and Criminal Justice Administration at John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York, injecting semi-permanent, bright-colored dyes into water cannons is a relatively cheap and nonviolent way to identify and detain rioters after crowds disperse and deter demonstrators who worry about staining their clothing or skin. "Water is considered to be benign but at the same time people don't want to be sprayed by water and especially colored water," she explains. "So it's not a bad alternative." But Haberfeld adds that modern police departments aren't likely to use such a low-tech tactic.

  Nevertheless, the approach is still employed frequently. The most famous use of colored-water cannons took place in South Africa in 1989, when police soaked anti-apartheid activists with purple water and one protester turned a water cannon back at police and government buildings, giving birth to the anti-apartheid slogan "the purple shall govern."

  But there are more recent examples (including blue water cropping up in a confrontation between squatters and South African police last May). Photos and videos online capture colored-water cannons dispersing protesters everywhere from Argentina to Malaysia to Hungary, and Israeli police have used colored water on protesting Palestinians (see above) and Jewish settlers in the past several years (the water aimed at settlers being evacuated from Gaza also contained turpentine). Some British lawmakers suggested tagging looters with dye during the London riots last year. And, as the pictures below of Kashmiri government employees protesting in Srinagar in 2008 and 2011 attest, Indian police appear to be particularly fond of purple water:

  

  

  When supporters of ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya took to the streets of Tegucigalpa in 2009, meanwhile, they were hosed with red liquid:

  

  Sid Heal, a retired commander with the Los Angeles Sheriff's Department and riot-control consultant, says red dye isn't the best because it can be mistaken for blood. And he adds that dyes can also be mixed with pepper spray or delivered through sophisticated projectiles. "If you see someone lighting a building on fire, you can hit them with the dye and record the incident," he explains. "And then if you find the person, you can connect them back to the projectile and prosecute them." This past summer, David Hambling noted at Wired that some dye tactics are actually quite high-tech:

  A more subtle approach is to use invisible dye that only shows up under UV light, a technique used for marking suspected insurgents in Afghanistan. UK company Smartwater goes even further, with invisibly coded sprays which can record exactly where a suspect was sprayed. These provide solid forensic evidence for a prosecution.

  But dyes have their drawbacks too. When Kashmiri protesters stared down purple water in 2008, Slate pointed out that innocent bystanders had been hit by the spray and some locals were complaining that the dye was toxic. "The technology by itself doesn't provide a solution," Heal argues. "It has to be incorporated into a plan to identify suspects."

  Additional photo credits: Tauseef Mustafa/AFP/Getty Images; Rouf Bhat/AFP/Getty Images; Orlando Sierra/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: European Union bans Iranian oil

  Posted: January 23, 2012, 3:05 pm by Uri Friedman

  European Union bans Iranian oil

  Top story: In an effort to dial up the pressure on Iran over its nuclear program, European Union foreign ministers have adopted an oil embargo against Tehran, which currently sends about 20 percent of its oil exports to the EU. European ministers also agreed to freeze the assets of Iran's central bank and ban trade in gold and other precious metals with the bank and other public entities.

  "I want the pressure of these sanctions to result in negotiations" with the West, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton explained. The tougher EU measures come shortly after the Obama administration imposed fresh sanctions on Iran's oil sector, and Europe and the United States are now trying to persuade Asian countries to reduce their purchases of Iranian oil as well.

  European ministers elected to phase in the embargo gradually to protect the European economy as it struggles to overcome its debt crisis, but enraged Iranian authorities may foil that plan. Iran's Fars news agency quoted one official as saying Iran should halt oil exports to the EU immediately "so that the price of oil soars and the Europeans ... have trouble."

  Yemen: Outgoing President Ali Abdullah Saleh has left Yemen for New York, where he'll receive medical treatment on a visit approved by the Obama administration. The State Department says Saleh, who has yet to officially relinquish power, will stay in the United States for a "limited time that corresponds to the duration of this treatment."

  Middle East

  • Syria has rejected a new Arab League peace plan calling for President Bashar al-Assad to cede power to a unity government. 

  • Libya's interim government delayed the release of a controversial election law and top Transitional National Council official Abdel-Hafidh Ghoga resigned after protesters attacked the council's offices in Benghazi.

  • Egypt's new Islamist-dominated lower house of parliament is holding its inaugural session and focusing on procedural duties such as electing a speaker. 

  Europe

  • Croatians voted to join the European Union by a two-to-one margin even as the bloc struggles with a debt crisis.

  • In a move that could further damage France's relations with Turkey, the French Senate is slated to vote on Monday on a bill passed by the country's lower house that would penalize genocide denial.

  • Italian truckers are blocking roads throughout Italy and taxi drivers are on strike to protest the government's fuel-tax hike and economic reforms.

  Asia

  • U.S. envoy Marc Grossman has rejected reports that peace talks with the Taliban could begin this week and suggested instead that negotiations won't be launched anytime soon.

  • Indian news outlets are reporting that police invented an assassination plot against Salman Rushdie to deter the author from attending a literature festival.

  • A judge in New Zealand has delayed a decision on bail for the founder of the file-sharing website Megaupload, which the FBI has accused of Internet piracy and money laundering.

  Africa

  • The International Criminal Court has ordered two Kenyan presidential candidates to stand trial for committing crimes against humanity during violence that erupted after the country's 2007 election.

  • A U.S. drone strike killed a senior foreign commander fighting with Shabab militants near Mogadishu, according to officials with the Islamic militant group.

  • An Ethiopian rebel group says it kidnapped two German tourists and two Ethiopians in a deadly attack in the remote region of Afar last week.

  Americas

  • A Guatemalan judge has ordered former military dictator Efrain Rios Montt to appear in court this week in what could be a prelude to a trial on genocide charges.

  • Brazilian police stormed an illegal settlement in Sao Paulo to reclaim the land for private owners. 

  • Workers have called off a strike that paralyzed the expansion of the Panama Canal for a week.

  
  

  Mustafa Ozer/AFP/Getty Images

• How to visit Cuba: First, find your purpose

  Posted: January 18, 2012, 9:47 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  The Washington Post reminds us this week that beginning on March 21, Island Travel & Tours will be operating direct charter flights from Baltimore's BWI Airport to Havana as part of the Obama administration's liberalization of travel to Cuba, which has been subject to a U.S. economic embargo for half a century (you can also take charter flights to the island from Miami, Los Angeles, New York, and a host of other U.S. cities). The president's efforts to increase "people-to-people" contact between the two countries represents a return to Clinton-era policies, after President Bush's tighter restrictions in 2003 caused the number of annual U.S. visitors to Cuba to drop precipitously from more than 200,000 to less than 50,000 in the space of a year. 

  The article got us wondering: How exactly does one get to Cuba these days? In short, you must have a government-defined "purpose" for visiting -- one that rises above run-of-the-mill tourism. But that purpose can take several forms, including:

  • Family: You can visit a "close relative" who's a Cuban national as often as you want and bring those who live in your house along. In late December, thousands of Cuban-Americans flew to the island to celebrate the new year with their families.

  • Religion: You can participate in "religious activities," typically under the auspices of a religious organization. The Archdiocese of Miami, for example, is bringing Christian pilgrims to Cuba for Pope Benedict XVI's visit in March. 

  • Education: You can conduct noncommercial research as an academic or student, study at a Cuban academic institution for credit, participate in other types of educational and cultural exchanges, or staff U.S. educational programs in the country. Havard University, Washington State University, the University of Iowa, the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, and the University of Michigan are among the institutions that have sponsored trips to Cuba for students, faculty, staff, and alumni, and Northwestern University is offering study abroad programs in Cuba focusing on public health and culture and society. But not everyone's thrilled about the changes. Cuban-American Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen has dismissed the Smithsonian Institute's Cuba trips as "little more than a tropical vacation" that don't allow Americans to see the "brutal reality of the Castro dictatorship."

  • Culture: You can deliver a public performance or participate in athletic competitions, as groups ranging from the Berkeley High School Jazz Ensemble to Wynton Marsalis' Jazz at Lincoln Center Orchestra have done. 

  • Journalism: You can engage in "journalistic activities" as a reporter or provide broadcasting or technical support for a journalist. Ray Suarez at PBS, for example, put together a series of controversial reports from Cuba in 2010.

  • Business: You can attend a professional conference (so long as it has nothing to do with commercial activities in Cuba or biotechnology products), carry out humanitarian work, or conduct business as an employee of a U.S. telecommunications services provider or a producer or distributor of agricultural commodities, medicine, or medical devices. Now that Cuba has begun offshore oil drilling, some are urging the Obama administration to allow U.S. companies to respond in the event of an oil spill in Cuba. 

  • Government/Diplomacy: You can conduct official business as a government employee or a member of an international organization to which the United States belongs. While it's former U.S. officials like Jimmy Carter and Bill Richardson who typically make headlines for traveling to Cuba, government employees have visited as well. In 1999, Illinois Governor George Ryan, who opposed the U.S. ban on trade with Cuba, made a humanitarian mission to the country and met with Fidel Castro. Six years later, U.S. aid officials visited the island to assess damage from Hurricane Wilma.

  Depending on which category you fall into, you may or may not need specific written permission from the Treasury Department to travel to Cuba. But the restrictions don't end once you've made it to the island. Travelers can spend no more than $179 per day on travel expenses that don't involve informational materials or activities for which they received a license to enter the country. They also can't purchase "services unrelated to travel or a licensed activity" -- which includes non-emergency medical services and, presumably, most souvenirs. What's more, U.S. credit cards don't work in Cuba because of the embargo. Taken as a whole, these restrictions often translate into itineraries stuffed with U.S. government-sanctioned activities around Havana and other locations such as Cienfuegos in the south.

  But for those who still long to be among the roughly 500,000 U.S. visitors whom the Cuban government estimates come to the island each year, there are ways to realize your goal. So, go forth and, in the words of Avenue Q, find your purpose.

• Morning Brief: Rescuers suspend Costa Concordia search

  Posted: January 18, 2012, 3:07 pm by Uri Friedman

  Rescuers suspend Costa Concordia search

  Top story: The Italian coast guard has suspended rescue efforts for the capsized Costa Concordia cruise ship, which crashed into rocks on Friday off the Italian island of Giglio in the Mediterranean. The death toll has risen to 11 people, and 24 others are missing. 

  The ship's captain, Francesco Schettino, is under house arrest and accused of causing the accident by coming too close to shore and fleeing the cruise liner while passengers were still being evacuated. In a recording of testy exchanges between Schettino and coast guard official Gregorio De Falco released on Tuesday, De Falco says at one point, "Schettino, maybe you saved yourself from the sea, but I'll make you have trouble for sure. Go aboard." Schettino maintained in a court hearing that he could not return to the ship because it was lying on its side.

  The work now shifts to salvage crews, who will pump half a million gallons of fuel from the ship to prevent an ecological disaster in a process that is expected to take two to four weeks.

  Web blackout: Wikipedia has taken its English-language site offline for 24 hours to protest two Internet piracy bills -- the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) and the Protect IP Act (PIPA) -- making their way through the U.S. Congress, with other sites like Reddit and Boing Boing following suit. Google is still humming, but the search engine has blocked out its logo and linked to an online petition urging Congress not to censor the web.

  Africa

  • A report by Oxfam and Save the Children suggests that a slow international response to famine in East Africa cost thousands of deaths.

  • A suspect in Nigeria's deadly Christmas Day bombing has escaped from police custody.

  • Gunmen from Eritrea attacked a group of European tourists in northern Ethiopia, killing five, wounding two, and kidnapping two.

  Asia

  • Pakistan has postponed a visit by U.S. envoy Marc Grossman until parliament can complete a review of bilateral relations, as tensions between the two countries continue to mount. 

  • Burmese pro-democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi, who is seeking office in a rural township southwest of Rangoon, registered for the country's upcoming elections with supporters in tow. 

  • Chinese villagers launched another land grab protest, this time outside the Guangzhou city government building, as officials continue their crackdown on activists.

  Middle East

  • In a radio interview, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said a decision about an Israeli attack on Iran was "very far off," suggesting that Tehran's nuclear program has not yet advanced to a point that the Israelis deem unacceptable.   

  • Thirty-four people died in a surge of violence in Syria on Tuesday, as troops and rebels strike a ceasefire in one town and the Syrian government considers whether to extend the Arab League monitoring mission in the country, which expires on Thursday.

  • Israeli prosecutors have launched a hearing on whether to indict Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman on charges of fraud, breach of trust, and money laundering. 

  Europe

  • Germany, Europe's largest economy, has lowered its economic growth forecast for 2012.

  • After hinting at foreign interference with their space program last week, Russian officials now say they're investigating whether American radar systems caused their Mars probe to fail.

  • Sweden is launching a new inquiry into the death of diplomat and Holocaust hero Raoul Wallenberg.

  Americas

  • Peruvian Vice President Omar Chehade has resigned over corruption allegations but will retain his seat in Congress. 

  • Several thousand workers at a project to widen the Panama Canal are on an indefinite strike over pay.

  • A Canadian naval officer has been charged with passing along state secrets to an unspecified "foreign entity."

  
  

  Laura Lezza/Getty Images

• Ron Paul invokes the ... Millard Fillmore doctrine?

  Posted: January 17, 2012, 7:38 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  Let's face it. When Millard Fillmore, the undistinguished, uninspiring 13th president of the United States, comes up in political conversation these days, it's usually as the butt of jokes. "When five of your six candidates could not be elected president if they were running against Millard Fillmore, I think you can presume there will not be much serious issue discussion," New York Times columnist Gail Collins quipped last week in a primer on the upcoming South Carolina primary. If only the rags-to-riches Whig, whose 212th birthday was recently celebrated with much fanfare in his native Western New York, were around to defend his record.

  But last night, during the GOP debate in South Carolina, Ron Paul issued a full-throated endorsement of Fillmore's approach to foreign policy, whether he realized it or not. "If another country does to us what we do to others, we aren't going to like it very much," Paul explained in the context of his opposition to war with Iran. "So I would say maybe we ought to consider a Golden Rule in foreign policy," he continued placidly, as he was eaten alive by boos and jeers. "We endlessly bomb these other countries and then we wonder why they get upset with us?" Paul has trotted out this Golden Rule line several times during the campaign, drawing laughter in New Hampshire after asking, "What if the Chinese came into the Gulf of Mexico and took over the Gulf of Mexico? I know we in Texas would be pretty annoyed."

  OK, but what does all this have to do with Millard Fillmore? The former president, it turns out, expressed nearly the same sentiments in 1850 during his first State of the Union address, in a formulation of foreign policy that sounds an awful lot like Paul's noninterventionist, empire-shunning worldview (key lines in bold):

  Among the acknowledged rights of nations is that which each possesses of establishing that form of government which it may deem most conducive to the happiness and prosperity of its own citizens, of changing that form as circumstances may require, and of managing its internal affairs according to its own will. The people of the United States claim this right for themselves, and they readily concede it to others. Hence it becomes an imperative duty not to interfere in the government or internal policy of other nations; and although we may sympathize with the unfortunate or the oppressed everywhere in their struggles for freedom, our principles forbid us from taking any part in such foreign contests. We make no wars to promote or to prevent successions to thrones, to maintain any theory of a balance of power, or to suppress the actual government which any country chooses to establish for itself. We instigate no revolutions, nor suffer any hostile military expeditions to be fitted out in the United States to invade the territory or provinces of a friendly nation. The great law of morality ought to have a national as well as a personal and individual application. We should act toward other nations as we wish them to act toward us, and justice and conscience should form the rule of conduct between governments, instead of mere power, self interest, or the desire of aggrandizement. To maintain a strict neutrality in foreign wars, to cultivate friendly relations, to reciprocate every noble and generous act, and to perform punctually and scrupulously every treaty obligation -- these are the duties which we owe to other states, and by the performance of which we best entitle ourselves to like treatment from them; or, if that, in any case, be refused, we can enforce our own rights with justice and a clear conscience.

  So, what was Millard Fillmore's foreign policy? While his term in office was dominated by a congressional debate over slavery, Fillmore did adopt a "foreign-policy agenda that emphasized expanding trade while limiting American commitments outside the Western Hemisphere," according to the University of Virginia's Miller Center (Ron Paul claims he's not isolationist because he's a free trader who simply doesn't want the United States to be the "policemen of the world"). Fillmore cultivated closer commercial ties with Japan, (ineffectually) opposed a Bay of Pigs-style invasion of Cuba, and refused to confront oppressive imperial governments in Eastern Europe -- all stances Paul might have taken had he been in Fillmore's shoes (we're not sure where Paul would have come down on securing bird dung from Peru, which Fillmore pursued zealously).

  Here's footage of the crowd's hostile reaction to Paul's remarks last night:

  Might Paul have pacified the crowd by explaining that, hey, he was only echoing Millard Fillmore? Something tells us he wouldn't have received a standing ovation. But bewildered silence might have done the trick.

• Borderlands: Call for Proposals

  Posted: January 13, 2012, 6:53 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  The modern national border is a European invention that has been exported around the globe, providing a ready source of conflict and bloodshed. In Africa and the Middle East, borders drawn by imperial hands no longer make sense -- they are wars waiting to happen. The Korean DMZ has outlived the Cold War as a nuclear flashpoint. Even in relatively peaceful and stable parts of the world, borders remain problematic. Think Kosovo, where Europe's newest hostile border has been drawn. Or the U.S.-Mexico border.

  Foreign Policy is partnering with the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting to commission a series of reports on borderlands, culminating in the publication of three e-books on the topic. The Foreign Policy reports and e-books will be a core part of a broader Pulitzer Center initiative addressing this topic on multiple media platforms and with a variety of approaches. The Pulitzer Center is offering a $5,000 stipend plus travel expenses for each of the three e-book projects, which will be selected and edited by Foreign Policy. The Pulitzer Center will serve as consultant and will promote further discussion of these topics through our Campus Consortium and Global Gateway outreach programs.

  For the e-books project, we are looking for experienced writers who can deliver rich narrative and thoughtful analysis on how borders shape the way people in various parts of the world experience their lives. The reporting should focus on one border or one region.

  Proposals of no more than 500 words and a travel budget should be submitted online to editor@foreignpolicy.com or travelgrants@pulitzercenter.org by Feb. 6. Please include "Borders" in the subject line and attach a CV.

• Morning Brief: Iran reports killing of another nuclear scientist

  Posted: January 11, 2012, 3:20 pm by Uri Friedman

  Iran reports killing of another nuclear scientist

  Top news: In the latest sign of escalating tensions between Iran and the West over the Iranian nuclear program, Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency is reporting that a "terrorist bomb blast" in northern Tehran killed Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, whom the news outlet identifies as an academic who also worked at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility. Fars says the assault resembled a 2010 bombing that targeted the current head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization.

  The New York Times notes that this is the fourth such killing reported by Iran in two years. And, as in the previous cases, Iranian officials are blaming Israel for the assassination. The accusations come as Iran, facing international sanctions, announces the start of production at a second uranium enrichment site and the sentencing of a former U.S. Marine to death for allegedly spying for the CIA.

  In a rather bizarre aside to all this diplomatic tension, the U.S. Navy rescued a group of Iranians at sea on Tuesday for the second time in less than a week. 

  U.S. election: Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won the New Hampshire primary convincingly after enduring a spate of attacks, with Ron Paul finishing second and Jon Huntsman coming in third. The contest now moves to South Carolina.

  Middle East

  • An Algerian Arab League monitor in Syria has quit the mission, which he described as a "farce," and called the situation in the country a "humanitarian disaster," as the United Nations reports that the Syrian government has stepped up its killings since the observers arrived.

  • Israel's military chief said the army is preparing to absorb refugees in a buffer zone between Syria and the Golan Heights following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime, which he said was inevitable.

  • Egypt's Foreign Ministry is discouraging Israeli pilgrims from making an annual visit to the tomb of Rabbi Yaakov Abu Hatzira in the Nile Delta.

  Asia
  

  • The United States resumed drone strikes in Pakistan's tribal areas after a two-month pause designed to ease tensions between the two countries, which worsened after a U.S. strike killed two dozen Pakistani troops.

  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is meeting with Chinese officials in Beijing to garner support for sanctions on Iran's oil industry.  

  • North Korea accused the United States of "politicizing" food aid but did not close the door on a deal.

  Americas
  

  • Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega promised "no dramatic changes" during his third term as president at a ceremony attended by Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is on a four-nation tour of Latin America.

  • The U.S. Treasury Department has labeled Mexican drug lord Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman "the world's most powerful drug trafficker." 

  • Concerns about the safety of juice in Brazil and cold weather in Florida have pushed orange juice prices to a record high.

  Africa
  

  • The paralyzing standoff between Nigeria's government and unions over the removal of a fuel subsidy has entered its third day, amidst continuing attacks that the government blames on the Islamist militant group Boko Haram.

  • A French investigation has concluded that aides to Rwandan President Paul Kagame were not responsible for a 1994 missile strike that shot down former President Juvenal Habyarimana's plane and sparked the country's genocide.

  • Ugandan businesses in Kampala are shutting down and boycotting banks to protest the central bank's high interest rates.

  Europe

  • The German economy appears to have shrunk in the last quarter of 2011 but grown by 3 percent during 2011 as a whole.

  • The Netherlands announced that it will ban the use of the drug khat, which is popular with the Somali community in the country.

  • Without explicitly singling out the United States, the director of Russia's troubled space agency suggested that an anti-satellite weapon may have caused a Mars probe to fail. 

  
  

  IIPA via Getty Images

• Fidel thinks Americans should vote for a robot over Obama

  Posted: January 10, 2012, 6:34 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  First Fidel Castro came out against fracking. Now, only days later, he's come out against Barack Obama. In his latest "reflection" in state-run media on Monday, the former Cuban leader declared that a "robot" would do a better job governing the United States and preventing "a war that would end the life of our species" than President Obama, "for whom, in his desperate quest for reelection, the dreams of [Martin] Luther King are more light years away than earth is from the nearest habitable planet."

  It's biting stuff from a man who in 2008 described Obama as "more intelligent, refined, and even-handed" than his Republican challenger John McCain, whom Castro labeled "old, belligerent, uncultivated, unintelligent, and in poor health" (the Comandante, no spring chicken, doesn't mince words, does he?). In 2009, Castro expressed faith in Obama's "honesty" about wanting to reach out to Cuban leaders and surprise that Obama's popularity was declining, blaming the phenomenon on "traditional racism" in America (during the 2008 campaign, he argued that millions of white Americans "cannot reconcile themselves to the idea that a black person ... could occupy the White House, which is called just that: white"). A year later, Castro praised Obama's health care reform, though he tweaked the U.S. leader on climate change and immigration reform.

  In fact, Castro has been growing disillusioned with Obama for some time. In September, Castro condemned the NATO intervention in Libya, declaring that Obama, the "yankee president," had served up "gibberish" during an address at the U.N. General Assembly and committed "monstrous crimes" in Libya. A few days later, Castro scoffed at Obama's suggestion that the United States would consider softening its stance toward Cuba if the Cuban government made a serious effort to "provide liberty for its people," and called Obama "stupid" in reference to the case of five Cuban agents imprisoned in the United States for spying.

  But, lest recent headlines like "CANDIDATE-BOT 3000 Model 'Mitt Romney' Being Glitchy Today" and "I Think Mitt Romney Is a Shape-Shifting Robot" confuse you, Castro does not appear to be endorsing the Republican frontrunner. In his op-ed, Castro added that the Republicans were worse still -- carrying "more nuclear arms on their backs than ideas for peace in their heads."

  And as pundits lavish their attention today on the latest polling out of New Hampshire, Castro likes the robot's chances. "I'm sure 90 percent of voting Americans, especially Hispanics, blacks, and the growing number of impoverished middle class, would vote for the robot," he declared. Anyone want to go out on a limb and predict a robot write-in victory in the Granite State?

• Morning Brief: Malaysian reformer acquitted of sodomy charges

  Posted: January 9, 2012, 3:35 pm by Uri Friedman

  Malaysian reformer acquitted of sodomy charges

  Top news: Citing unreliable DNA evidence, a Malaysian judge has acquitted opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim of sodomy -- a crime in the Muslim-majority country -- after a closely watched trial. Anwar was accused in 2008 of having sex with a former male aide and faced up to 20 years in prison if found guilty.

  While Anwar has long dismissed the charges as politically motivated, Malaysia's information minister is arguing that Monday's verdict demonstrates that the "government does not hold sway over judges' decisions." Anwar, who served as Malaysia's deputy prime minister in the 1990s, first faced sodomy charges in 1998 after he fell out of favor with the country's leader.

  The big question now is what the verdict means for Anwar's political ambitions and Malaysia's ruling party, which has been in power for over five decades. Reuters notes that the ruling could help Anwar make a political comeback ahead of expected elections this year. But the BBC adds that the next election may revolve more around issues than personalities since Anwar won't be able to cast himself as a martyr.

  Iran: Iran's Revolutionary Court has sentenced the 28-year-old Iranian-American Amir Mirza Hekmati to death for spying for the CIA, with a Supreme Court ruling to follow, according to the country's ISNA news agency. Iran's top nuclear official further inflamed tensions with the West over the weekend by announcing that the country was poised to start production at its second major uranium enrichment site, not long after the U.S. Navy freed Iranian fishermen held by Somali pirates. 

  Americas

  • Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in Venezuela to launch a Latin America tour, as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez lashed out at the United States for criticizing his country's ties to Iran.

  • Tests following Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's operation for suspected thyroid cancer have revealed that the Argentine president did not have cancer after all, according to a presidential spokesman.

  • The State Department has ordered Livia Acosta Noguera, a Venezuelan diplomat in Miami, to leave the country after a news report claimed that she'd once discussed possible cyberattacks against the United States.

  Asia

  • Exiled former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf says he'll return to Pakistan later this month to lead his party's campaign in an upcoming parliamentary election.

  • South Korean president Lee Myung-bak is visiting Beijing with political transition in North Korea and closer economic ties between South Korea and China at the top of the agenda.

  • North Korea's state-run television is painting Kim Jong Un as a "military genius," claiming that he oversaw the 2009 test launch of North Korea's long-range rocket and showing him driving a tank and sitting in the cockpit of a warplane.

  Africa

  • In a move that could paralyze parts of the country, Nigerian unions have launched a nationwide strike over the elemination of a government fuel subsidy. 

  • South Africa's African National Congress celebrated its 100th anniversary on Sunday at a soccer stadium with a mass rally, the ritual slaughter of a black bull, and a golf tournament.

  • Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan suggested that there may be sympathizers of the Islamic militant group Boko Haram in his government and security agencies.

  Middle East

  • In a progress meeting in Cairo, the Arab League declared that the Syrian government had only partially made good on a promise to halt its crackdown on protesters, and pledged to beef up its mission in Syria.

  • Israeli prosecutors have charged five settlers with organizing a raid on an Israeli army base in the West Bank in the first sign of a pledged crackdown on radical settlers.

  • In an effort to speed up Ali Abdullah Saleh's exit from power, Yemen's cabinet has proposed a law granting the Yemeni president legal immunity -- a measure many protesters on the street oppose.

  Europe

  • French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are huddling in Berlin for yet another round of eurozone crisis talks. 

  • The British cabinet is debating whether to give the Scottish government the legal power to hold a referendum on independence.

  • Incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy is gaining ground on Socialist rival Francois Hollande in presidential polls, though Hollande remains the frontrunner.

  
  

  Rahman Roslan/Stringer/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: Arab League's Syria mission sputters

  Posted: January 4, 2012, 3:37 pm by Uri Friedman

  Arab League's Syria mission sputters

  Top news: The Arab League, which has already faced criticism for appointing a close associate of Sudanese President and war-crimes suspect Omar al-Bashir to lead its Syrian mission, has now announced that it will send 50 more monitors to Syria to beef up its effort to stem a 10-month crackdown on protesters. Syrian security forces have killed more than 130 people since the team's arrival last week, according to a Reuters tally (other activist groups put the death toll higher).

  In a sign of growing disillusionment with the Arab League mission, the head of the anti-government Free Syrian Army threatened to escalate attacks against President Bashar al-Assad's forces if monitors fail to make progress over the next week. "We will take a decision that will surprise the regime and the whole world," Colonel Riad al-Assad told Reuters. Army deserters killed at least 18 members of Syria's security forces on Tuesday, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

  Arab League foreign ministers will meet this Saturday to review a preliminary report from their observers in Syria and determine whether to continue the mission in the face of persistent violence.

  U.S. elections: In the first Republican contest of the presidential campaign, Mitt Romney squeaked by a surging Rick Santorum in the Iowa caucuses by a mere eight votes, with Ron Paul finishing a close third. The race now moves to New Hampshire and South Carolina. 

  Middle East

  • In its latest threat to the United States, the Iranian military warned that an American aircraft carrier that left the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz last week should not return, prompting a defiant U.S. response.

  • Israeli and Palestinian negotiators made no breakthroughs during their first high-level talks in more than a year but agreed to hold further discussions in Amman.

  • Libya has named Yousef al-Manqoush, a retired general from Misrata, as the head of its new military, as power struggles and deadly clashes between militias persist.

  Europe

  • A British court has found Gary Dobson and David Norris guilty of the racially motivated and high-profile 1993 murder of a black youth named Stephen Lawrence in London.

  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel is pressuring President Christian Wulff to explain why he tried to prevent a newspaper from publishing a story about a questionable loan Wulff received.

  • A new law in Belarus will curb access to foreign websites and force Internet cafes to report users visiting sites registered abroad.

  Americas

  • Jamaica's first female prime minister, Portia Simpson Miller, has led her party to a landslide victory in general elections.

  • An Ecuadorean appeals court has upheld a ruling that Chevron must pay over $18 billion for dumping toxic materials in the Amazon.

  • A Canadian man says he managed to cross the border into the United States by flashing a copy of his passport on his iPad.  

  Asia

  • In an essay published in a Communist Party magazine, Chinese President Hu Jintao declared that his country must strengthen its culture since "international hostile forces are intensifying the strategic plot of westernizing and dividing China."

  • Kazakhstan has extended a state of emergency in the Caspian Sea town where deadly clashes between striking oil workers and police erupted last month.

  • The Afghan Central Bank has announced new measures to recoup public money lost during the 2010 collapse of Kabul Bank, the nation's largest private financial institution.

  Africa

  • Clashes between rival tribes in a South Sudan town appear to have left hundreds dead, according to a U.N. estimate.

  • At least one person has died during protests against the doubling of fuel prices in Nigeria. 

  • Senegalese public transportation workers have ended a two-day strike that forced some people to take horse-drawn carts to work.

  
  

  Louai Beshara/AFP/Getty Images

• Fake Wendi Deng account casts doubt on Twitter verification

  Posted: January 3, 2012, 9:22 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  Ever since Twitter developed a system in 2009 for authenticating celebrity accounts, following a lawsuit by then-St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa over the unauthorized use of his name, the microblogging site's blue-and-white "Verified Badge" has become an authoritative imprimatur -- the surest way to tell whether an account is genuine or fake.

  But the system is under greater scrutiny today after the administrator of an account allegedly belonging to Wendi Deng Murdoch, which briefly received the Verified Badge after launching on Sunday, admitted that she was not, in fact, the wife of News Corp. Chairman and CEO Rupert Murdoch, who had joined Twitter right before the New Year with his own verified account. Before the revelation, news outlets had dissected Rupert and Wendi's splashy appearance on the social networking site tweet by tweet (Rupert praised Rick Santorum and Fox films, while Wendi advised her beloved Rupert on Twitter etiquette, flirted with the likes of Ricky Gervais, and overused exclamation points and smiley faces). The Guardian even quoted an anonymous News Corp. spokesman as confirming the authenticity of Wendi's account (the company has since walked back the claim).

  On Tuesday, fake Wendi Deng marveled at how easy it was to fool people. "I was as surprised -- and even a little alarmed -- when I saw the Verified tick appear on the profile," the administrator reflected, adding that Twitter hadn't been in touch prior to issuing the badge and that the site "should be checking out its Verified status more carefully." The account's bio now reads, "Verifiably not @rupertmurdoch's wife. Unless you're Twitter. Or News International. SPOOF ACCOUNT." The Guardian is now reporting that a British man living in London is behind the hoax.

  Twitter isn't saying much about the mishap, telling The Atlantic Wire, "We don't comment on our verification process but can confirm that the @wendi_deng account was mistakenly verified for a short period of time." In fact, Twitter has revealed little about how its verification process works over the years, informing the Wall Street Journal in March 2011 that "we continue to very selectively verify accounts most at risk for impersonation on a one-off basis and highly irregular basis" but refusing to elaborate (the paper noted that some celebrities have been verified after reaching a certain number of followers, while others have had their managers contact Twitter directly to verify their accounts). Twitter's Verified Accounts page explains that the company is no longer accepting public requests for verification.

  The Deng debacle has people questioning Twitter's security and ability to expose impersonators. TechCrunch observes that while Twitter often verifies celebrities with a web presence by making sure a star's website links to his or her Twitter account, the company, in the case of Wendi Deng's account, appears to have "trusted the numerous media reports claiming the account's legitimacy instead." And those media reports, in turn, only quickened when Twitter verified the account. A vicious cycle, with one howling British man in the middle of it all.

• Chavez wonders whether U.S. is afflicting Latin American leaders with cancer

  Posted: December 28, 2011, 1:32 am by Uri Friedman

  

  Given the CIA's history of intrigue in Latin America, it may not be particularly surprising that the region's leaders are sensitive to signs of U.S. meddling in their countries' internal affairs. But sometimes the conspiracy theories seem pretty outlandish. In July, for example, Bolivian leader Evo Morales expressed concern that U.S. authorities would plant something on his presidential plane when he traveled to New York for the U.N. General Assembly in order to link him with drug trafficking. 

  Well, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who has previously accused the United States of fomenting coups against him, topped Morales' claim today. Reflecting on Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's recent diagnosis of thyroid cancer, Chavez noted that it was "strange, very strange" that he, Kirchner, Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, and Rousseff's predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, had all battled cancer in recent years. 

  You can see where this is going. Citing revelations this year about the United States carrying out medical experiments in Guatemala in the late 1940s in which subjects were deliberately exposed to sexually transmitted diseases, Chavez wondered whether it would come to light in 50 years that America had developed technology to spread cancer and brandish it as a weapon against its enemies, according to Bloomberg. "Evo take care of yourself, Correa, be careful," Chavez added, in reference to the leaders of Bolivia and Ecuador.

  Chavez also said that Cuba's Fidel Castro had warned him of this very scenario. "Fidel always tells me, ‘Chavez be careful, they've developed technology, be careful with what you eat, they could stick you with a small needle,'" he explained. 

  But, after all the insinuation, Chavez made sure to clarify that he had no proof for these charges. "I don't want to make any rash accusations," Radio Nacional de Venezuela quoted the Venezuelan leader as saying.

• Pandagate: Sweetie appears among the BBC's female faces of the year

  Posted: December 28, 2011, 8:03 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  Yes, those pesky giant pandas from Sichuan province are causing trouble again. Earlier this month, we noted that the media was hailing the arrival of Sweetie and Sunshine at the Edinburgh Zoo in Scotland as the latest chapter in China's grand tradition of "panda diplomacy," even though the arrangement more crassly involved a $1 million, 10-year lease and five years of painstaking negotiations.

  Now, the BBC has gone and included Sweetie in its list of the 12 women who made headlines in 2011. The honor raises several questions. How, for example, should U.S. Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and Dominique Strauss-Kahn accuser Nafissatou Diallo feel appearing alongside a panda? How should the panda feel? And why did Sweetie's male counterpart, Sunshine, not make the BBC's list of the 12 men who made headlines in 2011? Why, for that matter, are the BBC's top men all human?

  The BBC's list has sparked heated discussion on Twitter, giving rise, as all Twitter tempests do, to the obligatory hashtag (#pandagate) and fake Twitter account (@SweetiethePanda). Former Labour Party politician John Prescott notes that the inclusion of the panda comes shortly after the BBC failed to nominate a woman for its Sports Personality of the Year award. British researcher Paul Bernal carries the BBC's reasoning to its logical extension, noting that the chimpanzee who starred in Tarzan films in the 1930s died today."Surely that means he should be on the BBC's men [of] the year list," Bernal points out.

  For a number of people, the BBC's decision to include Sweetie smacks of sexism. "Here's why #pandagate matters: 3 out of 4 people in the news are men," writes Time's Catherine Mayer. "Don't give the 1 female slot to a panda." Some of these critics see the BBC's entire list as flawed. As the Twitter user @stavvers succinctly puts it, "Newsworthy acts by women in 2011: getting raped, getting married, being a panda." The blog London Feminist points out that only four of the BBC's 11 women (not counting Sweetie) made headlines for being "active participants in the news." The others, the blog maintains, were passive actors in world affairs:

  Our passive women are: Gabrielle Giffords (got shot in the head and survived), Eman al-Obeidi (beaten and gang-raped by Gaddafi's militia), Nafissatou Diallo (was allegedly subjected to a sexual attack by DSK), Jelena Lecic (her identity was stolen by a man pretending to be a Middle Eastern blogger), Charlene Wittstock (wept as she reluctantly married the Prince of Monaco - seriously, this woman's fame is not something we as a society should be proud of), Rebecca Leighton (got falsely accused of murder) and Kelsey de Santis (got taken on a date by Justin Timberlake).

  Over at the New Statesman, Laurie Penny argues that people should respond to the BBC's ranking by thinking about "not just whether a given list conforms to our ideals of how and on what basis women should be celebrated, but also whether life conforms to our ideals." She also gets in a withering dig at pandas:

  The thing about pandas is that they're the most useless evolutionary dead end ever to be preserved, at great expense, in the name of sentiment and nationalist flim-flammery. They're cowardly. They hate sex.

  Not everyone is outraged about Pandagate, however. Some are finding humor in the controversy. "I'm rather torn over #pandagate," observes Twitter user Dan Fox. "These things are never just black or white." Media consultant Huw Marshall, meanwhile, feels sorry for Sweetie. "Finally a girl panda gets the recognition she deserves and she gets treated as a 2nd class citizen," he writes.

  And others don't see what all the fuss is about. The BBC is circulating a statement noting that Sweetie was a "light-hearted addition to the list," and that previous "Faces of the Year" lists have included Benson the Carp (male) and Peppa the Pig (female). "Surely #pandagate was intended as an amusing round-up, not a serious roll call of achievement," British journalist Helen Barrett tweets. "Struggling to be outraged."

  Yet the outrage persists. The notion of "panda diplomacy" now seems even harder to stomach.

• Morning Brief: North Korea bids farewell to Kim Jong Il

  Posted: December 28, 2011, 2:57 pm by Uri Friedman

  North Korea bids farewell to Kim Jong Il

  Top news: Kim Jong Un -- now referred to as the "supreme commander" by North Korean state media -- walked alongside a hearse carrying Kim Jong Il on Wednesday in a funeral procession through snow-covered Pyongyang. The late North Korean leader's third son and successor was accompanied by his uncle Jang Song Taek and military chief Ri Yong Ho, who may emerge as key players as the younger Kim assumes power. Kim Jong Il's two older sons did not appear to be in attendance.

  Today's three-hour, 25-mile procession, broadcast live on state television and accompanied by large crowds of weeping soldiers and citizens, will be followed tomorrow by a national memorial service. While North Korea has not invited foreign delegations to the two-day funeral, China, a close ally, says its ambassador will attend the memorial service.

  "Has anyone imagined this loss even in a dream?" the state-run Korean Central News Agency laments today. "We will defend with our lives the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea headed by the dear respected Kim Jong Un in any storm and stress."

  Monitors visit Syria: Sudanese Gen. Mohammad Ahmed Mustafa al-Dabi, the head of an Arab League mission visiting Syria to verify that the government has ended its crackdown on protesters, tells Reuters that he did not see anything "frightening" during a visit to the flashpoint city of Homs, though "some places looked a bit of a mess." The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says security forces killed 15 people across the country on Tuesday, six of them in Homs, where mass protests took place.

  Americas

  • Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has been diagnosed with thyroid cancer and will undergo surgery in early January before taking a three-week leave of absence.

  • The Uruguayan senate has passed legislation to decriminalize abortion in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, as Cuba and Mexico City have done.

  • The Venezuelan government is offering to pay for the removal of faulty breast implants, many of which were imported illegally.  

  Middle East

  • The trial of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on charges of killing protesters and abuse of power resumed on Wednesday after a long delay.

  • Iran is threatening to retaliate against U.S. economic sanctions by blocking all oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

  • An Egyptian court has ruled that the military violated the human rights of female demonstrators by subjecting them to virginity tests earlier this year.

  Europe

  • The Kremlin has reassigned Vladislav Surkov, the architect of Vladimir Putin's centralized political system, following a wave of protests in Moscow. 

  • Italy's borrowing costs fell sharply at its latest debt auction after a round of government austerity measures reassured markets. 

  • Moldova's only candidate for president has announced that he's pulling out of this month's election, in a blow to a country that has been without a president for two years.

  Africa

  • Attackers bombed an Arabic school in southern Nigeria following a wave of Christmas Day church bombings in the country, heightening tensions between Muslims and Christians. 

  • Aid groups say they're seeing more reports of women being raped in famine-ravaged Somalia than at any time in recent memory.

  • Somali pirates have hijacked an Italian cargo ship off the coast of Oman. 

  Asia

  • In a much-anticipated report, the Chinese government has concluded that design flaws and poor management caused a deadly high-speed rail crash in July.

  • Afghan President Hamid Karzai has agreed to allow the Taliban to establish an office in Qatar, where Afghan and Western peace negotiators would be able to contact the group. 

  • As activist Anna Hazare launches a new anti-corruption hunger strike, India's lower house of parliament has passed legislation to create an independent anti-corruption agency.

  
  

  KCNA

• GOP candidates: American exceptionalists, most of the time

  Posted: December 27, 2011, 3:07 am by Uri Friedman

  

  Much has been written about how American exceptionalism -- and President Obama's alleged lack of faith in it --  has become a rallying cry for this year's batch of Republican presidential candidates, even as the American public grow less convinced of the country's superiority. As Mitt Romney declared during a debate earlier this month, "Our president thinks America's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president. This is going to be an American century."

  But, as Politico points out this afternoon, Romney concedes now and then that other countries have some exceptional ideas of their own. In the past week, the Republican frontrunner has expressed interest in Switzerland's coinsurance health care model and a value-added tax, which was first instituted in France. "There are many things, in addition to good food, that we can learn from our European friends," Romney explained, before adding that he opposed the high levels of government spending in many European countries.

  And Romney isn't the only GOP candidate to cast admiring eyes abroad. Newt Gingrich -- like Herman Cain before him --  has proposed overhauling Social Security along the lines of Chile's retirement regime, in which citizens can either pay into a state-run social security system with a payroll tax or put that tax money into a private retirement account. "It dramatically solves Social Security without a payment cut and without having to hurt anybody," he marveled.

  Others are impresed with China, though they certainly have misgivings about the country as well. Jon Huntsman, for example, has called for the United States to pursue free-trade agreements as aggressively as the Chinese. "China is in the game," he explained. "We are not." Michele Bachmann, coiner of the phrase "Hu's your daddy" to describe America's debt obligations to China, has expressed grudging admiration for the Chinese government's decision to plough ahead without a social safety net. "If you look at China, they don't have food stamps," she noted in November. "They save for their own retirement security ... they don't have the modern welfare state, and China's growing."

  In June, Bachmann suggested that America and Israel were equally exceptional, explaining in a video that Americans and Israelis "share the same exceptional mission: to be a light to the nations. After all, the image of America as the shining city on the hill is taken from the Book of Isaiah."

  The GOP message, in other words, is that America is exceptional. With some exceptions. 

• Morning Brief: Nigeria reels from Christmas Day bombings

  Posted: December 26, 2011, 4:25 pm by Uri Friedman

  Nigeria reels from Christmas Day bombings

  Top news: On Sunday, the Islamist sect Boko Haram orchestrated a series of devastating church bombings in Nigeria. The deadliest attack took place at St. Theresa's Catholic Church outside the capital, Abuja, where an explosion killed over 25 people as worshipers left morning Mass, according to Reuters. The group killed more than 90 people a year ago in bombings on Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve.

  The New York Times notes that the assaults on churches rather than government, police, and military installations represented a "new religion-tinged front, a tactic that threatens to exploit the already frayed relations between Nigeria's nearly evenly split populations of Christians and Muslims."

  Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian, called the attacks an "unwarranted affront on our collective safety and freedom." But the government is also facing criticism for not doing enough to disrupt Boko Haram and for responding to attacks with sweeping repression.

  A prayer for peace: In his annual Christmas Day message, Pope Benedict XVI called for the "resumption of dialogue between Israelis and Palestinians," an "end to the violence in Syria," full-fledged "reconciliation and stability in Iraq and Afghanistan," more "dialogue and cooperation" in Myanmar, and "renewed vigor to all elements of society in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East." The 84-year-old pontiff also condemned the Nigeria bombings on Monday.   

  Middle East

  • Clashes in Homs between Syrian security forces and opponents of President Bashar al-Assad killed 13 people ahead of a visit by Arab League monitors.

  • A suicide bomber attacked a checkpoint outside the Iraqi Interior Ministry on Monday as Iraq grapples with an ongoing political crisis and a spate of bombings in Baghdad on Thursday.  

  • The Obama administration is weighing whether to allow outgoing Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh into the United States for medical treatment, as forces loyal to Saleh's relatives continue to kill protesters.

  Europe

  • Tens of thousands of protesters called for new parliamentary elections and an end to Vladimir Putin's rule during the second major opposition rally in two weeks in central Moscow.

  • Prince Philip is recuperating at a hospital after receiving treatment for a blocked coronary artery.

  • Turkey's prime minister accused France of committing genocide in Algeria after French lawmakers passed a bill making it a criminal act to deny that Ottoman Turks committed genocide in Armenia.

  Asia

  • A private 13-member delegation led by former South Korean First Lady Lee Hee-ho has crossed into North Korea to pay respects to Kim Jong Il, as the late North Korean leader's son Kim Jong Un assumes control of the ruling Workers' Party.

  • The Pakistani cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan mobilized 100,000 people in Karachi on Sunday to protest against corruption in government.

  • In one of the harshest judgments in a political case since the jailing of Liu Xiaobo, a Chinese court has sentenced dissident Chen Xi to ten years in prison for subversion.

  Americas

  • Brazil has overtaken the United Kingdom as the world's sixth-largest economy, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.

  • The Mexican army has captured the head of security for El Chapo, the leader of the Sinaloa drug cartel.

  • Cuba has pardoned 2,900 prisoners for "humanitarian reasons" ahead of Pope Benedict XVI's visit to the country.

  Africa

  • The Sudanese government says that the powerful rebel leader Khalil Ibrahim has died from wounds sustained while battling Sudanese forces over the weekend.

  • The International Criminal Court released a Rwandan rebel leader because there was not enough evidence against him.

  • Sudanese riot police battled with students staging an exam boycott in Khartoum on Sunday.

  
  

  Sunday Aghaeze/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: Kim Jong Un moves to assert power

  Posted: December 21, 2011, 3:36 pm by Uri Friedman

  Kim Jong Un moves to assert power

  Top news: A day after Kim Jong Un received mourners and military salutes at a mausoleum housing his father's body, there are signs that Kim Jong Il's son is taking additional steps to secure his leadership of North Korea. The younger Kim has reportedly put the North Korean military on high alert, ordered troops back to their barracks, and tightened security in cities across the country. The Korean Central News Agency is driving the message home, noting that North Koreans "now pledge themselves" to Kim Jong Un, the "eternally immovable mental mainstay of the Korean people."

  But Kim Jong Un, who is in his 20s, may not be leading the country alone. Reuters is reporting that North Korea will shift to collective rule, with Kim Jong Un at the head of a governing group that will include his uncle Jang Song Thaek and military leaders. Sources tell Reuters that Kim Jong Il established the coterie before he died and that a military coup is unlikely.

  However the governing structure shakes out, the international community is already making overtures to the country's new leadership. China has rushed to express its support for North Korea, South Korea has permitted private organizations and individuals to express condolences over Kim Jong Il's death, and American officials have met with North Korean diplomats in New York.

  Iraq: Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq's Shiite prime minister, is pressing Kurdish authorities to hand over Sunni Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi over charges that he ran death squads. Hashemi, who traveled to semi-autonomous Kurdistan after Maliki sought his arrest, is denying the accusations, as concerns mount about renewed sectarian strife.

  Asia

  • Organizers of protests in the Chinese fishing village of Wukan have called for an end to demonstrations after reaching a deal with officials from Guangdong Province.

  • The death toll from last week's flash flooding in the Philippines has surpassed 1,000, and the number of missing is unknown.

  • The political standoff between two prime ministers in Papua New Guinea may be over after the governor general shifted his support to Peter O'Neill's government.

  Middle East

  • Activists say almost 200 people have died in two days of clashes in Syria, with the bloodshed concentrated in Idlib province, as Arab League monitors prepare to enter the country to oversee a peace plan.

  • Thousands of women marched through downtown Cairo on Tuesday to demand an end to military rule after images surfaced of soldiers mistreating female demonstrators, as Egyptians return to the polls today.

  • Muammar al-Qaddafi's son, Saif al-Islam, is still being held in Zintan but has been denied access to a lawyer as he awaits trial on charges of crimes against humanity, according to Human Rights Watch.

  Europe

  • The European Central Bank issued $644 billion in cheap three-year loans to over 500 banks in an effort to keep credit flowing, with demand for the loans exceeding expectations.

  • Russian anti-corruption blogger Alexei Navalny, who helped organize rallies after the country's recent parliamentary election, has left prison and promised more protests.

  • Thousands of Czechs joined the family and friends of the late Czech president Vaclav Havel in a procession through the capital on Wednesday.

  Africa

  • An Ethiopian court has found two Swedish journalists guilty of aiding an outlawed rebel group and entering the country illegally.  

  • South Sudan's top rebel leader has been killed in a clash with the country's military.

  • The U.N. war crimes tribunal for Rwanda has found two former ruling party leaders guilty of genocide.

  Americas

  • A decision by the South American trading bloc Mercosur to crack down on boats with Falkland Islands flags has sparked a war of words between Argentina and Britain.

  • Mercosur has also signed a free trade agreement with the Palestinian Authority in the first trade deal between the Palestinians and a bloc of countries outside the Arab world.

  • Mexico City plans to close one of the world's largest garbage dumps and instead turn the rubbish into reusable materials and energy.

  
  

  Kim Jae-Hwan/AFP/Getty Images

• How real is the mourning in North Korea?

  Posted: December 20, 2011, 12:42 am by Uri Friedman

  

  The outpouring of grief in North Korea over the death of Kim Jong Il -- captured in an FP slideshow today -- has many people asking the same question: Are the copious tears shed for the authoritarian ruler real, staged, or -- more unsettling yet -- a product of brainwashing?

  We can't know for sure, of course. But there's plenty of speculation. Reuters notes that while grieving has been coordinated in North Korea, there have also been reports of spontaneous outbursts of sorrow at gymnastics competitions and village loudspeakers. The Washington Post's Philip Kennicott thinks many of the tears, like those following the death of Josef Stalin in Russia, are genuine -- the products of concern about stability and continuity, "mass hysteria," and the inability to "conceive of life without the Dear Leader."

  Others are more skeptical, however. In an appearance on PRI's The World last night, British professor Hazel Smith, who lived in North Korea for two years, suggested that those doing the crying represent the minority who've benefitted under Kim Jong Il's rule, pointing to footage broadcast by North Korean state media of wailing students from Pyongyang's No. 1 Secondary School as evidence:

  Pyongyang No. 1 Secondary School is where the elites go to school and where they would have been filmed by the North Korean TV to show all this grief in order to put on a show for the world. So the main question is what about the rest of the people? Most people think that Kim Jong Il doesn't provide them with a decent life, enough food to eat, that they've suffered a calamitous degradation of their lives economically over the past 20 years.

  So what has mourning in the impoverished country looked like? The first instance of public grief came on Monday morning in North Korea, when a television presenter dressed in black haltingly announced Kim Jong Il's death:

  Over the past two days, the state-run Korean Central News Agency has released a series of videos showing the North Korean people -- mainly those in the capital -- "overcome with grief." In the clip below, employees of the Kwangbok Area Supermarket in Pyongyang -- which Kim visited during a "field guidance" tour only days before his death -- rush to a stage where the North Korean leader's picture is displayed, fall to the floor, and weep hysterically. One worker says she welled up with tears when she caught a glimpse of Kim's "haggard face" during his visit to the supermarket, according to a KCNA translation.

  In another video released today, North Koreans young and old weep before a photo of Kim Jong Il at the April 25 House of Culture in the capital. "I can hardly believe his demise," one young woman shrieks. Another woman, the curator of the Jonsung Revolutionary Museum, adds that Kim "did not even allow the people to erect his statue and monument." She pledges fealty to Kim's revolutionary cause and to the leadership of his son and successor, Kim Jong Un. 

  KCNA is publishing article after article about the country's "veritable sea of mourners" (5 million strong in Pyongyang alone, per the news agency) whose "wailing voices are rocking heaven and earth." This Russia Today montage captures some of the other scenes that have been playing on North Korean television, including that shot referenced above of students from No. 1 Secondary School (at 1:00):

  In another instance of grieving today, Kim Jong Un made his first public appearance since his father's death, visiting Kim Jong Il's coffin and saluting military officials in what smacked of a symbolic transfer of power:

  What's perhaps most striking about all the images above -- the hysterical, collective weeping, the ascendant son visiting his father as he lies in state -- is how closely they mirror the scenes that came out of North Korea in 1994, when Kim Il Sung died and Kim Jong Il assumed power. Check out this footage from that period:

  "He is the eternally immovable mental mainstay of the Korean people," KCNA declares today of Kim Jong Un. One can't help but feel like history is repeating itself.

  Update: In an analysis on Wednesday, the New York Times notes that the convulsive grieving in North Korea is "an accepted part of Korean Confucian culture," a practice compounded by coercion and Kim Jong Il's cult of personality. "Not hewing to this tradition would invite social and state opprobium," the paper writes. Indeed, according to ABC News, a North Korean defector once wrote that in the wake of Kim Il Sung's death in 1994, "The party conducted surveys to see who displayed the most grief, and made this an important criterion in assessing party members' loyalty."

• U.S. officials may take action again al-Shabab's Twitter account

  Posted: December 20, 2011, 6:03 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  Earlier this month, we brought you the news that Somalia's al-Shabab had joined Twitter and begun tweet-taunting the Kenyan military, which has launched an offensive against the al-Qaeda-affiliated Islamic militant group. The account's administrator claimed the organization wasn't engaged in a larger rebranding effort, as we and other Western news outlets had suggested.

  In fact, it's recruitment -- not rebranding -- that has the Obama administration worried about al-Shabab's new Twitter presence. When the group first launched the account, Wired noted that "journalists, terrorism researchers, and aid workers make up the lion's share of its early followers, not eager Muslim youth." But the New York Times reports today that officials across the U.S. government are concerned that al-Shabab's account, which now boasts over 5,000 followers, could reach potential recruits in the West with its scathing and sophisticated English-language tweeting. "American officials say they may have the legal authority to demand that Twitter close the Shabab's account," the paper explains (Twitter declined to comment). 

  If the government does indeed pursue legal action, the Times notes, it could open up a "debate about over the line between free speech and support for terrorism." And, indeed, the debate is already underway. In what appears to be a response to the Times piece today, al-Shabab tweeted, "With millions of websites & newspapers disseminating their propaganda, the #US couldn't endure to hear the real truth. What a travesty!" (The group also called an earlier Times article on its Twitter account an "elaborate, sentimental piece of writing accentuating the oft-repeated canard that passes for #Journalism these days.")

  Over at Salon, meanwhile, Glenn Greenwald argues that the Obama administration's concern about al-Shabab's Twitter account highlights the "simultaneous absurdity and perniciousness of the War on Terror." He continues:

  So the U.S. Government believes it may have "legal authority" to compel Twitter to close accounts. From where does that authority derive? Presumably, the Obama administration could consider Twitter's providing of a forum to a designated Terrorist organization to constitute the crime of "material support of Terrorism." That raises a variety of questions: is the NYT guilty of that crime by quoting some of those tweets and promoting the account (since the first NYT article was published, the number of people following @HSMPress has significantly increased and is almost certain to increase more as a result of today's article). Can one be guilty of that crime if one re-tweets any of their messages? How about if one defends their right to have a Twitter account?

  What is more likely than compulsory action is thuggish extra-legal intimidation aimed at Twitter to "voluntarily" close the account. That path is less overt but just as insidious, if not more so. That is how government officials such as Joe Lieberman succeeded in cutting off all of WikiLeaks' funding sources and web hosting options without the bother of charging that group with a crime: by demanding that Amazon, Master Card, Visa, Paypal and others "on their own accord" terminate WikiLeaks' accounts and refuse to provide the group with any services.

  The Guardian's Jason Burke thinks worries about al-Shabab's account are overblown. "Al-Shabab's tweeter is witty, sharp and articulate, and undoubtedly attractive to the odd aspirant jihadi," he writes. But "militancy involves a complex web of personal associations and the strongest influences are brothers, fathers and friends, not virtual web-based communities."

• Morning Brief: North Korea's Kim Jong Il dies of heart attack

  Posted: December 19, 2011, 3:44 pm by Uri Friedman

  North Korea's Kim Jong Il dies of heart attack

  Top news: North Korean leader Kim Jong Il died on Saturday after suffering an "advanced acute myocardial infarction, complicated with a serious heart shock" while on a train as part of one of his "field guidance" tours, according to the Korean Central News Agency, which waited nearly two days to release the news. The state-run outlet says the 69-year-old Kim, who reportedly suffered a stroke in 2008, had "received medical treatment for his cardiac and cerebrovascular diseases for a long period," adding that North Koreans are now "overcome with grief."

  Kim, the New York Times notes, "realized his family's dream of turning his starving country into a minor nuclear-weapons power even as the isolated nation sank further into despotism." KCNA has hailed Kim's son Kim Jong-un, who was appointed to senior military and political posts last year, as the "great successor" who will complete the "revolutionary cause" of his father and Kim's father, Kim Il Sung.

  While Kim Jong-un is believed to be in his late 20s, little else is known about him. Questions about his inexperience and support among North Korea's military leaders have the international community -- and especially South Korea -- on edge. North Korea's test of short-range missiles on Monday morning has only heightened anxiety.  

  Iraq: The last convoy of American troops in Iraq drove into Kuwait in a secret crossing at dawn on Sunday.  

  Europe

  • The playwright, dissident, and former Czech president Vaclav Havel, who helped orchestrate the "Velvet Revolution," passed away on Sunday at age 75. 

  • Rescuers saved 14 people after a drilling rig sank with 67 people on board off Russia's far eastern coast, but they don't think they'll find any more survivors. 

  • The Swedish carmaker Saab has filed for bankruptcy after General Motors, which owns part of the company, blocked Saab from securing funding from Chinese investors. 

  Asia

  • Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari returned to Islamabad on Monday from a Dubai hospital amidst a showdown between the military and civilian government over a memo accusing the country's generals of plotting a coup. 

  • Flash floods have killed hundreds of people in the Philippines.

  • In their latest act of defiance against authorities, Chinese villagers in Wukan are threatening to march on a local government office to protest land seizures and the suspicious death of an activist.

  Middle East

  • Israel has released 550 prisoners in the second phase of a swap for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.

  • Egyptian security forces are battling protesters demanding an end to military rule in the fourth straight day of deadly clashes.

  • Syria has agreed to allow monitors into the country as part of an Arab League deal to end President Bashar al-Assad's nine-month crackdown on protests.

  Africa

  • Nigerian police arrested 14 suspected members of the Islamist group Boko Haram after a gun battle between militants and policemen over the weekend.

  • In her first visit to Africa as IMF chief, Christine Lagarde praised Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan's efforts to reform the economy.

  • Opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi is refusing to accept Joseph Kabila's victory in the Democratic Republic of Congo's recent presidential election, pledging to take the oath of office and urging the army to stop obeying Kabila's orders.

  Americas

  • The Peruvian government is trying to prevent paroled U.S. activist Lori Benenson, who served 15 years in prison in Peru for aiding left-wing rebels, from traveling to New York City for the holidays.

  • Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has honored South American independence hero Simon Bolivar with a new coffin encrusted with diamonds, pearls, and golden stars.

  • Former Mexican President Miguel de la Madrid Hurtado is gravely ill.

  
  

  Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: Belgian killer's motivations remain mystery

  Posted: December 14, 2011, 3:27 pm by Uri Friedman

  Belgian killer's motivations remain mystery

  Top news: Belgian police have discovered a woman's body in a shed belonging to the man who attacked a marketplace in Liege on Tuesday with guns and hand grenades, killing four people and wounding more than 100 others before killing himself. The woman appears to have been a 45-year-old cleaner who worked for a neighbor, according to the BBC, and the attacker is thought to have used the warehouse to grow marijuana.

  What spurred the attacker -- Nordine Amrani -- to carry out his rampage remains unclear, however. On Wednesday, public prosecutor Daniele Reynders said there was no evidence linking Amrani to terrorist groups or extremist movements. Amrani had previously spent time in prison for drug and gun offenses, and was slated to answer police questioning about a sexual abuse case on Tuesday, suggesting, as the New York Times puts it, that his "attack was some sort of desperate final lashing out."

  The Times points out that the attack heightens "fears of a new wave of violence in Europe" following Anders Behring Breivik's killing spree in Norway in July and the deadly shooting of two Senegalese vendors in Florence on Tuesday. The mayor of Florence has declared Wednesday a day of mourning in the Italian city.

  Russia: The chairman of the ruling United Russia party has resigned as speaker of the lower house of parliament in an apparent effort to placate critics of the country's recent parliamentary elections, shortly after an editor and top executive at Kommersant Vlast were fired after the Russian news magazine published an issue looking at charges of electoral fraud by United Russia.

  Middle East

  • Iran's intelligence chief has made a rare visit to Saudi Arabia to deny U.S. claims that Tehran tried to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, and to argue that America and Israel are trying to divide the two regional powers.

  • The second round of Egypt's parliamentary election is underway, as the country's Islamist parties try to consolidate their initial gains.

  • Jewish settlers attacked an Israeli Army base in the West Bank on Tuesday amid rumors that their settlements would be dismantled while arsonists set a Jerusalem mosque on fire on Wednesday, prompting calls in Israel for a crackdown on Jewish extremists.

  Europe

  • Geneva-based scientists say they've found only hints of the subatomic particle known as the Higgs boson.

  • E-mails released Tuesday suggest James Murdoch may have known about widespread phone hacking at News of the World long before he said he did.

  • In the wake of British Prime Minister David Cameron's veto of a new EU treaty, Britain's Conservatives have surpassed the Labour opposition in an opinion poll for the first time this year.

  Asia

  • Papua New Guinea -- which experienced an earthquake on Wednesday -- is locked in a tense standoff between two rival prime ministers.

  • South Korea is asking China to secure its Beijing embassy following a minor attack on the building, after a Chinese fisherman fatally stabbed a South Korean Coast Guard officer on Monday.

  • Asif Ali Zardari's office says the Pakistani president will be discharged from a hospital in Dubai on Thursday but didn't confirm reports that he suffered a "mini-stroke."

  Africa

  • A U.S. drone monitoring piracy off the East African coast has crashed at a Seychelles airport. 

  • The International Criminal Court has referred Malawi to the U.N. Security Council for not arresting Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir when he spent time in the country in October.

  • Malian authorities say they've arrested the kidnappers of two French citizens in the country last month.

  Americas

  • The United States has charged eight former Siemens executives with trying to bribe Argentine officials to win a contract for producing national identity cards in the country.

  • Chilean authorities are urging men not to wear ties during the summer in an effort to save energy. 

  • Mexico has arrested the Zeta drug gang leader known as "El Lucky."

  
  

  Philippe Huguen/AFP/Getty Images

• Morning Brief: Syria holds local elections as violence escalates

  Posted: December 12, 2011, 3:14 pm by Uri Friedman

  Syria holds local elections as violence escalates

  Top news: The Syrian government is holding local elections today as a sign of its commitment to democratic reform, as the opposition calls for a boycott of the polls and launches a general strike. The BBC notes that turnout is low and that 43,000 candidates are competing for more than 17,000 seats in local councils across the country. 

  The voting comes amidst persistent violence in Syria. Reuters reports that Syrian troops and army defectors fought "one of the biggest battles in Syria's nine-month uprising" in Busra al-Harir on Sunday, and the opposition claims Syrian authorities have threatened an assault on Homs if residents fail to halt anti-government protests, hand over weapons, and surrender army defectors by Monday night (the government hasn't confirmed the alleged ultimatum).

  As the Arab League prepares to discuss Syria's tentative acceptance of a plan to send monitors into the country, Damascus is facing international pressure on another front. On Sunday, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe suggested that Syria was behind a bombing that wounded French U.N. peacekeepers in southern Lebanon. Syria has denied involvement in the attack.

  Climate change: Delegates from nearly 200 countries have agreed to draft a new global emissions treaty by 2015 as part of U.N.-sponsored climate talks in Durban, South Africa, with China, India, and the United States promising to join the pact when it takes effect in 2020.

  Europe

  • President Dmitry Medvedev took to Facebook to announce an investigation into alleged fraud in Russia's parliamentary election, prompting thousands of critical comments on his Facebook page.

  • British Prime Minister David Cameron will address Parliament on Monday over his veto of proposed European treat changes, as Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg criticizes the decision.

  • Moody's is warning that it could downgrade the credit ratings of some E.U. countries after Standard & Poor's made a similar announcement last week.

  Americas

  • Former Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega has arrived in Panama to complete a 20-year sentence for crimes committed during his rule, after spending more than two decades in American and French jails.

  • Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is in Washington to discuss postwar U.S.-Iraqi relations with President Obama.

  • Peruvian President Ollanta Humala has reshuffled his cabinet in a move that may indicate less tolerance for social protests.

  Asia

  • The CIA has vacated a Pakistani air base used for drone strikes against militants as part of the fallout from the NATO raid that killed 25 Pakistani soldiers in November.  

  • A Chinese fisherman stabbed a South Korean Coast Guard member to death during a crackdown on illegal fishing near South Korea.

  • The Pakistani government is denying reports that it is negotiating with the Pakistani Taliban, which claims the two sides are talking. 

  Middle East

  • Members of al-Qaeda have escaped from a prison in southern Yemen, in the second such incident since June.

  • Iran says it's nearly finished recovering data from the U.S. drone it captured, calling the violation of Iranian airspace a "hostile act."

  • Israel has dispatched a new ambassador to Egypt three months after rioters attacked the Israeli Embassy in Cairo.

  Africa

  • Joseph Kabila, the Democratic Republic of Congo's president, has admitted that "mistakes" were made during the country's recent election but rejected the allegation that the results lacked credibility.

  • Ivory Coast is holding its first legislative election since Alassane Ouattara took power from Laurent Gbagbo.

  • An explosion wounded a top intelligence official in a northern Kenyan town during Independence Day celebrations, in the third attack on the country's security forces in two days.

  
  

  Louai Beshara/AFP/Getty Images

• About that al-Shabab rebranding ...

  Posted: December 9, 2011, 9:24 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  On Thursday, we noted that Somalia's al-Shabab had joined Twitter amidst reports that it was considering changing its name to reflect the fact that its members aren't as young as they used to be (al-Shabab means "the youth"). Echoing an earlier report on the developments, we suggested the moves might be part of a larger "rebranding" effort by the Islamic militant group.

  Al-Shabab's resident tweeter, it seems, isn't happy with that assessment. " Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 All reports of #AlShabaab re-branding are false!" the group's Twitter feed declared earlier today. "Suggestion from Somali scholars was perhaps misconstrued as an official HSM statement." The account added a dose of media criticism  ( Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} "journalists are encouraged to verify and double-check their sources instead of regurgitating unreliable accounts often from subjective media") before turning its attention for the first time to the Kenyan military spokesman tweeting about his country's offensive against the militant group. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} "@MajorEChirchir 50,000 Ethiopian troops couldn't pacify Somalia; you think a few disillusioned & disinclined Kenyan boys are up to the task?" al-Shabab taunted.

  The Kenyan military spokesman, Maj. Emmanuel Chirchir, at first seemed hesitant to engage with the newly minted al-Shabab account, noting this morning that the Kenya Defense Forces Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} "is not keen on twitter war nor propaganda." But Chirchir, it seems, couldn't resist. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} "With Al Shabaab joining tweeter, lets take fight to their doorstep, lets follow them for a week then unfollow," he tweeted hours later. The mass unfollow -- your newest addition to the brave new world of modern warfare.

• Somalia's al-Shabab militants rebrand

  Posted: December 8, 2011, 12:47 am by Uri Friedman

  

  Want a play-by-play of the battles al-Shabab militants are waging today with Kenyan forces in southern Somalia and Somali troops in Mogadishu? Look no further than al-Shabab's Twitter feed, which launched yesterday with a quote from the Koran ("in the name of God, the most gracious, the most merciful") and has since tweeted in vivid and impassioned English. The Kenya Defense Forces "envisaged a lightening invasion of #Somalia but the Blitzkrieg they'd hope for became a thorny quagmire for the inexperienced soldiers," @HSMPress (short for Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Harakat al-Shabab al-Mujahideen) declared this morning, adding, "Military ineptitude, deteriorating economy, social imbalance, & public ambivalence trigger a desultory face-saving attempt by the #KDF: FLEE!" A battle cry followed minutes later: "Despite the tragedy and loss of life & wealth, a Mujahid does not desert the dignity to defend what he holds dearest: His Faith!"

  The new presence on Twitter, as Wired notes, may be part of a larger rebranding effort for the al-Qaeda-affiliated Islamic militant group. Earlier this week, Somalia Report noted that al-Shabab had decided to change its name to Imaarah Islamiyah ("Islamic Authority"). "Al-Shabab means 'youth' but many of us, including the leaders, are very old," a spokesman for the militant group explained. Wizened but still very much with it, mind you. After all, they're on Twitter.

  In truth, though, al-Shabab's Twitter account represents more of a propaganda campaign than a branding campaign. On Wednesday, Wired pointed out that Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} "journalists, terrorism researchers and aid workers make up the lion's share of its early followers, not eager Muslim youth" (hence the value of English-language tweeting). @HSMPress serves as a counterweight to the much-publicized Twitter feed maintained by Kenyan military spokesman Maj. Emmanuel Chirchir, who has used the microblogging service to warn Somali civilians about air raids and get in the occasional jab. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} "Even with Al Shabaab change of name, KDF/TFG is committed in delivering the promise," Chirchir tweeted this week, in reference to the Kenyan and Somali militaries. "Reduce Al Shabaab effectiveness."

  The proxy microblog battle speaks to a larger trend: Twitter, for all its pluses, is becoming a bit of a propaganda cesspool as the power of new media becomes more difficult to ignore. NATO has been tweet-sparring with two Taliban feeds for months now (a sample salvo from NATO today: Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} "Scores of coalition killed in Kunar mortar attacks, huh? @Alemarahweb How about none killed"). The North Korean government launched a Twitter feed -- @uriminzok ("our nation") -- last year, prompting the South Korean government to threaten any of its citizens who reply or retweet @uriminzok's messages with legal action. This week, Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} the House Homeland Security subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence held a hearing on the threat posed by terrorists using social media tools such as Twitter to attract followers.

  Propaganda, as the popular feeds mentioned above attest, does indeed attract followers, though one imagines not all of them are ideological sympathizers. After two days and 21 tweets, @HSMPress already has 759 followers and counting.

• The India subtext in the Veena Malik nude cover controversy

  Posted: December 7, 2011, 5:51 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  Last week we brought you the news that the men's lifestyle magazine FHM India had stoked controversy with a cover featuring Pakistani actress Veena Malik, fully nude and seemingly taunting Pakistan's forbidding spy agency with an ISI tattoo on her arm.

  Since then, Malik has filed a $2 million defamation suit (full text here) against the magazine, claiming that she was only in a partial state of undress during the photoshoot and that FHM India "morphed" the image to make her appear naked (professing innocence that's hard to believe, her lawyers also write that, "to our client's knowledge," there are 56 institutes with the acronym ISI around the world). The magazine, for its part, insists the photo is authentic (legal notice here) and has released new pictures of Malik wearing nothing but a green ammunition belt and alternatively leaning on a military helmet and pretending to pull the pin out of a grenade with her teeth.

  But that's only part of the story. On Tuesday, the Mirror quoted Malik's father, Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} Malik Mohammad Aslam, as saying he "disowned" his daughter and Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} didn't "want her to have any share in whatever meager assets I have until she is cleared of the controversy and pledges not to visit India again," adding, Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} "I cannot tolerate anything against my country and my faith." Reading between the lines, it seems Aslam is as upset about Malik posing in India as he is about her posing nude. 

  India and Pakistan, of course, are bitter rivals. And this isn't the first time Malik has gotten into trouble because of her ties with India. Last month, India Today noted that Malik was under fire for agreeing to select a groom and get married on the Indian reality TV show Swayamvar. "There are thousands of Indian girls trying hard to get small roles on TV and in film," a spokesperson for the Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} Indian Artistes and Actors Forum declared. "So why choose Veena, who is not great or unique as an actor?" The magazine added that Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} "Twitter, Facebook and YouTube are abuzz with comments from people in Pakistan denouncing [Malik's] decision."

  Before that, in January, Malik lashed out at a Muslim cleric on Pakistani television after he criticized her for cuddling with men and wearing revealing clothing on the Indian reality show Bigg Boss. "There is an allegation against you, made by a segment of Pakistani society, that you brought dishonor upon Pakistani culture by going to India," the TV host explained. Mufti Abdul Qavi accused Malik of violating the "Two-Nation Theory," which posits that Hindus and Muslims on the Indian subcontinent are two distinct nations. "Pakistan is infamous for many reasons other than Veena Malik," the actress retorted.

  Here's a clip of the exchange with translation by the Middle East Media Research Institute.

  
  

• Morning Brief: Syria's Assad denies deadly crackdown on protesters

  Posted: December 7, 2011, 3:27 pm by Uri Friedman

  Syria's Assad denies deadly crackdown on protesters

  Top news: In excerpts of an interview with ABC's Barbara Walters aired on Wednesday, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad dismissed the charge that he has orchestrated a bloody crackdown on anti-government protesters, stating that more than 1,000 of his soldiers and police have died over the past nine months and that they represent "most of the people that have been killed." The United Nations says more than 4,000 people have died during the uprising.

  "We don't kill our people," Assad told Walters. "No government in the world kills its people, unless it's led by a crazy person." The Syrian leader shrugged off mounting international sanctions against his regime and argued that the United Nations isn't a "credible institution." He admitted that his security forces had made "mistakes" but blamed these on rogue individuals, insisting that "there was no command to kill or be brutal." Assad once again promised reforms, maintained that he still enjoyed widespread popularity in Syria, and declared that criminals, religious extremists, and terrorists were responsible for the unrest.

  Assad's comments, the New York Times explains, are in keeping with the Syrian government's decision to stick to the tactic of "blaming foreign agents and denying official responsibility for the violence." Meanwhile, Syrian opposition groups are reporting heavy clashes between the Syrian army and defectors in the country's north today, as peaceful protests increasingly give way to an armed uprising. 

  Pakistan: A spokesman for Asif Ali Zardari says the Pakistani president is in Dubai for routine treatment and will be returning to Pakistan shortly, as other reports suggest he suffered a minor heart attack and speculation swirls that he may resign.

  Asia

  • A roadside bomb killed 19 civilians in Helmand province a day after sectarian attacks across Afghanistan killed 60 people, as Afghan President Hamid Karzai cancels a planned visit to London and a Pakistani militant group claims responsibility for Tuesday's violence.

  • The United States and China have launched a radiation detection system to combat the smuggling of nuclear materials.

  • A leader of the Thai "Red Shirt" movement who fled the country after last year's protests has surrendered to Thai authorities. 

  Americas

  • In a Human Rights Day speech in Geneva, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that the United States would use diplomacy and foreign aid to promote gay rights around the world. 

  • Brazil's economy slowed in the third quarter after a long period of growth, as the government unveils fiscal stimulus to revive consumer spending.

  • Chilean politicians are criticizing President Sebastian Pinera for his "prehistoric and sexist" remark during a summit in Mexico.

  Middle East

  • The Muslim Brotherhood says it's won most seats in the first round of run-off elections in Egypt.

  • Saudi Arabia sentenced an Australian man to 500 lashes and a year in prison for violating the country's blasphemy laws during a hajj pilgrimage last month.

  • As he enters prison to serve a seven-year term for rape, former Israeli President Moshe Katsav is still professing his innocence. 

  Europe

  • Hundreds of people protested Vladimir Putin's rule in Moscow for a second straight day on Tuesday despite a crackdown by tens of thousands of Russian police, and helicopters began patroling Moscow's skies on Wednesday.

  • Greek lawmakers have approved a 2012 austerity budget that extends a raft of spending cuts.  

  • Italian police have discovered the fugitive Mafia boss Michele Zagaria in a bunker near Naples. 

  Africa

  • President Joseph Kabila appears poised to win Congo's election, though the final results have been delayed 48 hours.

  • United Nations-led climate talks in South Africa are stalled, with some blaming the United States for the impasse.

  • A South African official has admitted that the government prevented the Dalai Lama from attending Desmond Tutu's 80th birthday celebrations in order to maintain trade ties with China.

  
  

  Louai Beshara/AFP/Getty Images

• Huntsman backtracks on trust in climate science

  Posted: December 6, 2011, 11:11 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  Republican presidential candidate Jon Huntsman turned heads today when he declared at a Heritage Foundation event that there are "questions about the validity of" climate science and "not enough information right now to be able to formulate policies" to address climate change. While acknowledging the overwhelming consensus among scientists on climate change -- and even suggesting we defer to it -- Huntsman concluded that the debate still needs to "play out within the scientific community."

  While the comments may seem like a subdued version of the climate-change skepticism expressed by nearly all of this year's Republican candidates, they're surprising given that Huntsman distanced himself from the GOP field in August by tweeting that he Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 "trust[ed] scientists on global warming" and cautioning Republicans against becoming the "anti-science party." Huntsman has also renounced cap-and-trade schemes  after implementing a cap-and-trade program to curb greenhouse-gas emissions as governor of Utah. The  "Energy Security" section on Huntsman's website stays quiet on climate change.

  While Huntsman may be the latest Republican candidate to veer toward the climate skeptics after expressing more moderate positions, he's certainly not the first. Mitt Romney said "we don't know what's causing climate change" after previously saying humans were contributing to global warming. Ron Paul, who once allowed that human activity might play a role in climate change, now calls global warming a "hoax." And Newt Gingrich, who joined Nancy Pelosi in 2008 to urge government action on global warming (see below) now says Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} the ad is "probably the dumbest single thing I've done in recent years. It is inexplicable." (In an interview with Glenn Beck today, Gingrich softened a bit, saying Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} "I think that there is evidence on both sides of the climate change argument.")

  These shifts in position, of course, could be in response to new evidence such as leaked emails from climate scientists, but they also smack of the need to play to the base during primaries. A Pew Survey last week found that while Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} there has been "sharp increases in the percentages of independents and moderate and liberal Republicans who say there is solid evidence of global warming" since 2009, "opinions among conservative Republicans have changed little since 2009," with just over 30 percent believing there is solid evidence for climate change.

• China's quid pro panda

  Posted: December 6, 2011, 5:45 pm by Uri Friedman

  

  The web's buzzing this week about the Edinbugh Zoo welcoming a pair of giant breeding pandas from China's Sichuan province. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} "Since the 1950s," Reuters explains, "China has given away pandas as gestures of goodwill in what has come to be known as 'panda diplomacy.'" Or, as the Independent exuberantly put it, "Pandaplomacy! Eats shoots and and helps ease global tension."

  Ah, if only it were that simple. To be sure, the arrival in Scotland of Tian Tian and Yang Guang (or Sweetie and Sunshine, for Anglophones) has been accompanied by a flurry of diplomatic activity. During a happily timed visit to China this week, Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond thanked Chinese officials for the pandas and announced a raft of bilateral agreements, including plans to digitally map China's ancient Eastern Qing Tombs and possibly establish direct flights between the two countries.

  But underlying these friendly overtures is the stark truth that China's panda diplomacy just isn't what it used to be. According to the Guardian, the origins of the practice actually stretch  all the way back to the Tang dynasty in the seventh century, when the Empress Wu Zetian dispatched two pandas to the Japanese court. The Chinese government revived panda diplomacy in the 1950s, sending 23 pandas as "state gifts" and "friendly ambassadors" to nine countries through 1982, according to the China Internet Information Center.

  In perhaps the most famous example, Mao Zedong presented Richard Nixon with two pandas after their groundbreaking summit in 1972 (Nixon, in turn, gave Mao a pair of America's greatest zoological treasure: musk oxen). In Nixon and Mao, Margaet MacMillan describes the moment at which China's premier offered the pandas to Pat Nixon:

  Chou En-lai, who was smoking Chinese cigarretes, turned to Mrs. Nixon and gestured to the picture of two pandas on the package. "We will give you two," he said. According to Chinese sources, Mrs. Nixon screamed with joy.... Giving the right presents, not too lavish and not too simple, has been an art, one that the Chinese had traditionally excelled at.

  These days, however, there's simply no such thing as a free panda (unless you're Hong Kong or Taiwan, which rejected a panda present in 2005 as an infringement on its independence). In the 1990s, as China flexed its economic muscle, Chinese conservation and zoological groups shifted gears and decided to loan the rare animals in pairs to other countries for 10 years of "cooperative research" with Chinese scientists and a hefty fee, with the pandas and their offspring remaining the "property of China during the loan period," according to the China Internet Information Center.

  In fact, the arrival of Sweetie and Sunshine in Scotland is the product of five years of byzantine negotiations with Chinese authorities following the Edinburgh Zoo's decision to bid for pandas as a way to stem financial losses -- not some grand goodwill gesture from the Chinese government. And Scotland, banking on increased tourism to recoup its expenses, will pay China a cool $1 million a year for the honor of hosting its pandas, with most of the money going toward conservation and genetics research to help China preserve its panda population.

  This new arrangement can lead to some awkward situations. According to a Washington Times report, the State Department suggested in 2009 that President Obama personally lobby Chinese President Hu Jintao to have Tai Shan, a cub born to leased pandas at Washington's National Zoo, stay in the capital for a bit longer. "We think there might be a good chance that President Hu would agree, purely as a diplomatic goodwill gesture," State explained. While Tai Shan's parents were permitted to stay in Washington under a five-year extension of the lease, the effort to keep Tai Shan in town ultimately failed. Diplomatic goodwill gesture? Please. A deal's a deal.