Mutahi Ngunyi analyses the realpolitik behind Kibaki’s flirtation with Biwott in the Sunday Nation. A central question: Is a Kibaki-Biwott alliance stronger than Kibaki-Ralia one? The rise of Biwott would be the strongest move by any camp so far in the election of 2007. Ngunyi also looks at the influence of the wazees, the old men of Kenyan politics, which makes the vijanas, Young Turks, look and behave like amateurs. Biwott, hate him or hate him, is a massive political power, in addition he has the ear of and speaks on behalf of the ultimate political mzee, the Professor of Politics himself.
To be elected president in Kenya under the current constitution you have to win at least 25% of the vote in 75% of the Provinces. In Kenya today that would mean you have to win 25% of the vote in 5 of the 8 Provinces. Something Kibaki may struggle to do. Right on cue the Standard on Sunday reveals a plan to over haul the current Provincial Administration system, the main part of the reform being the creation of four new provinces taking the total to 12. Suddenly things begin to look rosy again for Kibaki. If Nyachae delivers 25% of the new Nyanza South province, Biwott delivers 25% of the new North Rift province, Ntimama delivers 25% of the new South Rift province, assuming North Eastern and the new Northern province go with the incumbent, which the usual do, all Kibaki has to do is hold onto Central and the new Central Rift province to be laughing all the way to the bank statehouse. The wazees will have kept Kibaki in statehouse.
However the Kibaki camp may be committing the ultimate miscalculation. By courting new votes and new supporters so vigorously (e.g. this fliration with biwott) they risk isolating previously loyal supporters.
It is an indication of how low opinion of political leaders in Kenya is that even something as worthy as the reform of an outdated Provincial Administration system immediately looks like an attempt to buy strategic votes. I for one have become the ultimate cynic where this government is concerned.
Pamoja Tuangamize Ukimwi
Kaybees - Thanks for voting!
6 comments
Comments feed for this article
April 24, 2005 at 11:49 pm
afromusing
Ditto on the cynicism, thanks for this post, i was wondering why i was hearing about biwott and Kibaki in the same sentence…LOL on hate him or hate him… Inanikumbusha the redistricting that Tom Delay engineered in TX.
April 25, 2005 at 12:46 pm
cirdan
75% of 8 is 6.
April 25, 2005 at 6:11 pm
Magaidi
Funny how the more things change, the more they stay the same. There is something to be said though with the provincial alignment and trying to break these huge vasts of area into smaller more manageable units. Having said that, this Kibaki government has such a bad rep that any logic within this plan is killed by presumption of political manouvering before election. In all this talk too, there seems to have been lost on us, the issue having to do with a new constitution. What happened?
April 25, 2005 at 7:15 pm
mentalacrobatics
@afromusing these political wazees really know how to play the game. But we are waking up, hopefully they will be shocked.
@magaidi the constitution is being kicked around like a political football which is a shame, there was chance for real dialogue there, yet another broken electoral promise. its funny how we trusted this lot that much!
@cirdan so sue me! nah just kidding, thanks for pointing it out!
April 26, 2005 at 7:53 am
M
LOL! When it comes to being cynic of this govt i take some challenging! The audacity of Kibaki even thinking of putting Biwott in govt after harping for 2+ years how KANU mismanaged the country and emptied the coffers leaves me speechless!
Also, the latest scandal of nepotism in Kibaki’s appointments and MP CDF committee appointments continues to deprive us yet more of our powers of speech!
April 27, 2005 at 5:56 am
akiey
I see very little difference between the politking of this gov’t & the Nyayo one they badmouthed for decades. All they’re concerned about is hoodwinking the masses into thinking they’re out to some good while those in power reap all the benefits.