Africa’s skies

After the tragedy this morning with the loss of Kenya Airways flight KQ507 with 114 people on board I am more or less sure that a big debate will sprout up on how safe Africa’s skies are and on how safe African airlines are. This post aims to put some facts on the ground before hysteria takes over the debate.

The airline

IOSA is the global benchmark for airline safety management. It is designed to assess airline operational management and control systems based on internationally recognised standards. Any airline wishing to join IATA must be IOSA registered. By the end of 2007, all IATA members must successfully undergo the IOSA audit in order to retain IATA membership. Carriers must achieve registration by the end of 2008. IOSA is open to all airlines. Four African airlines already have IOSA registration; South African Airways, Kenya Airways, Comair, Royal Air Maroc and Egyptair. Kenya Airways is a safe airline.

The plane

The plane involved in the incident today was a brand new Boeing 737-800. The plane was collected from Boeing in October 2006 and went into service in November 2006. No ramshackle plane this. These Next-Generation 737 are the newest and most technologically advanced single-aisle airplane in the business today. It flies higher, faster and farther than previous models and competitors. In addition, its flight deck features the latest liquid-crystal flat-panel displays and is designed to accommodate new communications and flight-management capabilities.

Africa’s skies – the real story

Last year the IATA Director General Giovanni Bisignani said, “Africa is our biggest concern. While the continent represents just 4 percent of total air traffic worldwide, it accounts for 25 percent of the accidents.” All this following a decision by the European Commission in March 2006 to publish a “blacklist” of 92 airlines, dominated by African airlines, that it banned from European skies because of poor safety records. The “blacklist” includes 50 airlines registered in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 13 from Sierra Leone, 11 from Equatorial Guinea, 6 from Swaziland and 3 from Liberia. (Yes that was FIFTY from the DRC!)

As Christian Folly-Kossi, secretary general of the African Airlines Association, which is based in Nairobi, says in the same article, he was worried that shaming a handful of African countries would damage the reputation of all the region’s airlines, including those that have made significant strides toward improving their records … Folly-Kossi criticized the EU’s blacklist, calling it “inappropriate” because it names dozens of carriers that are not operating or do not fly internationally … “The reality is that, with this list, the public perceives all African carriers as potentially very risky,” he said. “I take it as a kind of unfair competition because the message implied is that you should fly on a European airline if you want to be safe.”

Africa is a big place. You lump all the countries into one category you are going to have problems no matter what you are talking about.

How does Africa compare globally?

Not very well to be honest. But the stories that Africa’s skies are the worst in the world by a mile are incorrect.

Image soucre: IATA Safety Report 2006

According to The (annual) IATA Safety Report’s Regional Results, Russia and other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) had the highest accident rate of all the regions in 2006, with 8.6 Western-built hull losses per million flights—13 times the global average. IATA is actively working with the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), States and operators to improve the situation.

In Africa, improvements have been made to enhance safety. However, the accident rate remains the second highest in the world at 4.31 accidents per million flights. IATA is working with relevant organisations to further reduce it with a focus on upgrading onboard systems and navigation databases.

Hopefully this post will inject some sense of perspective when we debate this issue.