Uncertainty grips Kenya – Kenya Election 2007

Monday, December 31st, 2007 at 11:23 AM

Uncertainty is the word I would use to describe the mood around Kenya this morning in contrast to fear and anger last night.

Where are the ODM pentagon members?

Last night’s report that they had been arrested and shot have been rubbished by the police. The police say they have not arrested any pentagon members. Which of course leaves the possibility that they were apprehended by another branch of the security forces for example the army. What I do know is that many senior opposition figures are attempting to contact them with no success, which in itself is pretty scary. Of course this could all be part of an elaborate plan to keep the location of the ODM Pentagon secret, especially from those of us outside the inner circle such as myself.

Those of us in Nairobi with a network of information are lucky. The further you get from Nairobi the wilder the rumours. For example, in Kakamega in western Kenya, the story circulating is that all the members of the Pentagon are in jail for treason/sedition and their lives are in danger.

I suspect that until Odinga appears on TV or at some other public forum these rumours will not die down.

I feel in the Kenya we have today (despite the chaos of the last two days) it would be impossible to keep the arrest, shooting or death of key opposition leaders secret for long. Someone somewhere would have leaked that information, which would have made its way into the media. For this (albeit flimsy reason) I feel that the Pentagon are safe. I hope I am right.

Will the rally at Uhuru Park go ahead?

Last night ODM announced a rally for 14.00 at Uhuru Park today where Raila would be sworn in as the “People’s President”. The police were quick to ban the rally stating that correct procedure had not been followed. In addition the police added that any member of the public attending the rally would be, “dealt with”. This has not stopped large groups of people trying to make their way to Uhuru Park out of Kibera only to be met by security forces with tear gas. For those who know the area, the area around Mimosa court was the scene of fighting amongst rival gangs, pro and anti government. Ngong Road earlier today was also a no go area.

If the Pentagon are unable to attend the rally for whatever reason then i doubt it will go ahead. The problem is with the media blackout no one knows whether the Pentagon will or will not attend and so may just end up going to Uhuru Park anyway. Having gambled a large part of their credibility in ensuring the rally does not go ahead I expect the police response to be vigorous.

Are supplies getting through?

I met a clever blogger stocking up on supplies at Uchumi Ngong Road a few days ago. I gave up standing in the long queue. Now I am regretting that decision. As supermarkets remain closed and major roads impassable there is concern that food and petrol supplies are low. One of the most valuable thing around here after food and fuel is mobile phone airtime cards, such is the scarcity! Kenya has also been on holiday for practically two weeks. People need to bank, businesses have to be run, the school year is due to start next week arrangements for that have to be made. Tomorrow should be a normal working day. Will it be?

What is the media going to do?

After yesterday’s directive restricting what the media can and can not broadcast the Media Council and Media Owner’s Association are meeting today to formulate their response. Will they obey the government’s order? Will they disregard it? Are they united? Are they divided?

Who will be Vice President?

Kibaki’s Party of National Unity only has 37 MPs most of who are from his Central Province. Logic suggests that there is no way you can have the president and vice president from the same tribe. In addition Kibaki needs to bring in many more political parties to have any semblance of a working parliamentary majority. This probably means that ODM-K are being courted heavily at the moment. Kalonzo, the leader of ODM-K and third in the presidential race, will probably demand nothing less than the Vice Presidency in return for his political support. This would not go down well with people who have been with Kibaki since day 1 of these campaigns.

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