Carrot and stick

Carrot and stick is an idiom used to refer to the act of rewarding good behavior and punishing bad behavior. The carrot represents the edible reward, while the stick refers to a punishing switch.

Since the crisis in Kenya exploded a steady stream of prominent Africans has flown into town to try and help kick start talks between the Odinga and Kibaki camps and to help the peace efforts.

My favourite Nobel laureate, Desmond Tutu, arrived and tried to use his considerable moral authority with not much success.

Four retired African Heads of State Former Mozambican President Joachim Chissano, former Zambian President Kenneth Kaunda, former Tanzania President Benjamin Mkapa and former Botwana president Ketimire Masire came to “stand with Kenyan people in times of need” but they too did not have much success and were snubbed by Kibaki.

Up next was a serving head of state. President Kuffor of Ghana arrived in his capacity as head of the African Union to have a go and was instead insulted when the Kibaki’s official spokesman announced that Kuffor had come just to drink a cup of tea with his age mate Kibaki and two ministers, Internal Security Minister Saitoti and Transport Minister Michuki, announced at a press conference that they felt his trip was a waste of time.

Then came former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, Kuffor’s fellow country man from Ghana. Suddenly things started moving. Kibaki and Raila meet face to face for the first time since the election, and shook hands in public promising to sit down and talk. Negotiation teams have been announced and perhaps most remarkably considering the treatment his predecessors have had in the past few weeks, Annan has complete access to Kibaki seeing him whenever he needs to.

So what does Annan have that Tutu, Chissano, Kaunda, Mkapa, Masire and Kuffor did not have? Why does Kibaki have to listen to Annan when he ignored the rest and even let his team insult them? Why does Kibaki have to even meet Annan? Simply because he has too, he does not have a choice.

This is why. Having seen Tutu, Chissano, Kanuda, Mkapa, Masire and Kuffor fail Annan did not want to suffer the same fate. He certainly would not stand for being insulted in public like his president was. Annan was already on his way to Kenya when news of Kuffor shabby treatment at the hands of Kibaki’s team came out and he quickly developed a very convenient “flu” which allowed him to postpone his trip to Kenya.

Annan learnt from the rest how entrenched in their relative positions the political camps in Kenya were and how difficult it was to see Kibaki. Annan learnt quickly that there was no point in travelling to Kenya unless he carried with him the threat of sanctions. To put it simply he had to be able to force Kibaki and Raila to meet and talk, he had to have complete access to both Kibaki and Raila and he had to ensure that whatever he said they took very seriously. They would have no option but to talk to him and Kibaki especially would have to realise that this was not business as usual.

In the last 15 - 20 years ever since the environment became sexy and climate change and global warming shot up to the top of the political agenda there has been a concentrated effort to move the United Nations Environmental Programme and United Nations Habitat headquarters from Nairobi. Many European countries want it, the BRIC countries all want it, and many believe that if it was moved to the UN headquarters in New York the environment would feature prominently in international policy. Basically it is all about money. Successive Kenyan governments have always argued that as UNEP is the only UN agency headquartered in a developing country it would send a negative signal to move it from Nairobi. Successive Kenyan governments have also argued that Kenya is an oasis of peace in a troubled region and it was important for the UN to have an international headquarters here.

One major sanction that Kofi Annan brought with him was the threat to move UNEP and UN Habitat headquarters out of Nairobi, within THE NEXT SIX MONTHS! Not next year, not in the distance future, but by July! Non essential UN staff in Nairobi (as well as many diplomatic staff) have not reported back to work and have in effect been on holiday since the week before Christmas. All agencies have contingency plans to evacuate their offices and to make moves permanent. This was not an empty threat from Annan and I bet it is the number one reason Kibaki agreed to meet Raila.

They would not take the carrot offered by Tutu and Kuffor, so Annan swung a stick.

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