Silver linings: Kenya Election 2007
Wednesday, January 16th, 2008 at 1:51 AM
Every cloud has a silver lining, the saying goes. Tuesday afternoon the dark cloud of an illegitimate presidency in Kenya revealed its silver lining. Democracy hit back hard as Kenya’s 10th parliament convened for the first time. As a proud Kenyan patriot I was pleased that there were no punches thrown in parliament, no unseeingly scenes of honourable members doing what some call pulling a South Korea. It was all very civilised, everybody addressing each other as honourable member this, honourable member that. As a political scientist it was the most drama I have watch in a long time, so many issues to discuss. Rather than deliver a blow by blow account let me highlight a couple of issues I felt were important.
The situation we have in Kenya as it stands is that we have a president who does not have control of parliament. This would not be a big problem if we had a presidential style of government as in the United States where the president and congress regularly come from different parties and those institutions are designed to work separately. However, what we have in Kenya is a ridiculous deformed hybrid of a presidential and parliamentary style of government, where we have an executive president, who is also a member of the legislature and has the right to vote in the legislature and is dependant on it for his agenda to go through, yet sits separate from other members of parliament and is treated as an respected outsider from most proceedings, does not have to justify his actions to parliament and can largely ignore it or bend it to his will as a rubber stamp.
This deformed hybrid of government worked perfectly (from a presidential point of view) up to now as the president has always had control of parliament through his political party. In 2008 we have a situation where the strongest political force in the country, ODM, is not only completely opposed to the president but also considers him illegitimate.
This is not news, ever since Kibaki claimed the presidency he knew that he had fewer members of parliament that those opposed to him. What has been extraordinary to observe in the days since Kibaki rushed to his swearing in ceremony, is that Kibaki has acted like he can simply ignore ODM. Isolated in StateHouse he has acted like he does not have to deal with ODM. Well during the first session of parliament on Tuesday reality hit. For the first time since the election Kibaki came face to face with a group of people who not only think he is illegitimate and stole the election, but also have real power to set up an alternative political power structure. This was shown when ODM managed to get their candidate for Speaker of Parliament, Kenneth Marende, elected over Kibaki’s choice, the former incumbent, Francis Ole Kaparo.
ODM controlling parliament sets up some very interesting and indeed ridiculous scenarios. Kibaki gets to appoint a cabinet and that cabinet has to work through parliament. Yet the majority in parliament is completely opposed to Kibaki’s policies and will do whatever it can to wreck them. Kibaki, if he was thinking straight, could have overcome this by appointing ODM MPs to key cabinet positions. Instead he chose to ignore ODM all together in a move that made no political sense. ODM due to their strength in numbers will control all parliamentary committees. In another ridiculous scenario, some powerful parliamentary committees have a majority of seats reserved for the opposition in an attempt to prevent the largest political party in parliament from dominating all proceedings.
Of course the largest political party in parliament is usually the president’s party. This time however ODM is both the largest political party in parliament AND at the same time is the opposition and therefore, now have the opportunity to completely dominate all aspects of parliament’s proceedings and undermine Kibaki’s agenda. They do not have the two thirds majority required for a vote of no confidence, however, they can, for example, vote down the budget. Then what would Kibaki do? Or they can introduce a private members bill which states that anybody appointed a minister immediately looses 90% of his parliamentary salary. This is not as far fetched as you think. After all today we saw attempts by ODM to have the oath MPs have to take as they are sworn in as unconstitutional! We shall see how this plays out. If you didn’t know why we need a new constitution before then hopefully this political mess has opened your eyes to why we do.
Another aspect of this political situation in the country is that every political move, even when it seems spontaneous and obvious, is calculated. For example, take ODM’s strategy of asking the Speaker to rule the oath MPs have to take during their swearing in as unconstitutional as the MPs have to swear allegiance to the presidency as well as the country and the constitution. It was pretty obvious from the beginning that this Point of Order had no chance of succeeding for a whole variety of reasons and ODM must have known that. So why push it? Perhaps because it gives the new ODM backed Speaker of the House the opportunity to display his impartiality by ruling against ODM in his first ruling?
What I have found completely irritating in the proceedings of today and the past two weeks is Kibaki’s camp continual insistence that, the law or tradition even, be respected at all times. This from a team that continuously broke “little” laws when they felt those laws did not matter much. One example, the law of Kenya states that there shall be no campaigning the day before an election. Basically this law is designed to allow the electorate to vote in peace. It is not the most significant law but it is important. The evening before the country was due to vote in the Constitutional Referendum i.e. well within the final 24 hours, Kibaki went on TV to give an address carried live by the national broadcaster urging Kenyans to vote for his new proposed constitution. A clear and blatant breaking of the law by the person whose team is now shouting obey the law. When you hear ministers who were part of a government that has repeated tried to muzzle the press by amongst other things sending in paramilitary terror squads and burning presses, continuously insist that everyone else must obey the law or take matters to court you can’t help but snort in disgust.
These are the same clowns who were using state resources against the law, mainly vehicles and helicopters, in the just concluded campaigns who are now shouting that the law must be obey. We used to be told a story as children warning against adopting cute little lion cubs. The moral of the story; little lions become big lions and big lions kill. If you were wondering what the story teller was talking about well here is a 21st century adaptation; people who break little laws, will have no problems breaking big laws. Those who ignore a “small” law banning campaigning in the last 24 hours today, steal a “big” election tomorrow.
During the debate in parliament today speaker after speaker on Kibaki’s side urged that tradition be respected. Yet this is the same Kibaki who completely ignored tradition and unilaterally appointed Electoral Commission of Kenya commissioners just two months ago without consulting the opposition ignoring a tradition which was established during the reform talks of 1997 and from which Kibaki directly benefited as a member of the then opposition.
This habit of breaking the law when it suits them and ignoring traditions when it suits them means that there is no way ODM will trust anything Kibaki’s administration will say. This would not matter if Kibaki controlled parliament. Then he could just continue with his policy to ignore ODM. But since he does not and since ODM can claim the mandate of the people, as the have more MPs, it matters a lot.
Many of us who worked tirelessly in the past year urging people to vote ensuring them that their vote matters, that their vote is their voice and that all votes are equal have been completely deflated in the past two weeks. What do you tell someone who voted for the first time and then sees his vote disregarded in blatant rigging? I have been expecting many of the younger voters to come and express their anger at me for getting their hopes up that their vote was as powerful as anyone else’s vote. Instead what I have seen is very encouraging; people are engaged in the political process as never before. For example, earlier on Tuesday a group of youth were busy calculating how many votes you need to be elected Speaker of parliament. At petrol stations you hear debates about whether Nominated MPs are nominated before or after the speaker is elected, people come up to me and ask if there is anything that can prevent Kibaki from stealing all the Nominated MP positions for his own party in defiance of tradition which states the nominated positions are given out in proportion to the number of seats won, and the most requested document request I receive by email these days is for the Constitution. Tuesday’s parliamentary proceedings were broadcast live on TV and the whole country was watching and taking note. When Marende was elected speaker we could hear shouts of celebration from Kibera and Kawangware. This engagement is not exclusive to the middle class. It looks like stealing an election is a fantastic way to get the public engaged in civic education. Now that is a massive silver lining!
(It is now 01.00 and Members of Parliament are still being sworn in? Why the heck don’t these guys start their business day at 09.00 like the rest of the professional world (or at 6am like many of their constituents do)? Don’t worry, Kibaki snuck out a while ago and is probably tucked into bed enjoy a long nights sleep after a hard 5 hour working day.
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Entry Filed under: Election07, Kenya, Politics
31 Comments Add your own
1. Pages tagged "hopes"&hellip | January 16th, 2008 at 2:19 am
[...] = “34d024″; var mooter_wrapper_url=”"; var run_method = “onload”; var mooter_target = “0″; Silver linings: Kenya Election 2007 saved by 1 others SephirothX10 bookmarked on 01/15/08 | [...]
2. Erick | January 16th, 2008 at 2:31 am
Asante for the update, very encouraging news.
3. alexcia | January 16th, 2008 at 2:31 am
is anything that can prevent Kibaki from stealing all the Nominated MP
That is the question
4. JKE | January 16th, 2008 at 5:38 am
Good post!
Leaves me with one cynical question: shida gani? As far as I’ve understood the “system” so far, MPs sit in a money making board and talk about things they can never really vote on. Isnt this all they wanted?
Ah let’s wait to see how Kibaki changes his mind to get some more players on his side, e.g. giving out positions to ODM.
Oh and has any of the MPs so far signed the MOPA charters?
5. Frank | January 16th, 2008 at 5:44 am
So should we all be lawless? tit for tat?…
6. Ms K | January 16th, 2008 at 8:43 am
Ha ha yeah I’m expecting all Kibaki supporters to come out and start saying that ODM MPs have no respect for the law etc etc.
Of course they do not want to see is that ODM MPs were challenging interpretations of the law, as good legislators should.
And as you say, the biggest irony is that people who had no qualms subverting the Kenyan people’s will and completely emasculating our hard-fought democracy can then start whining when people step up to challenge the status quo.
To Frank, no-one said we should all be lawless! But people must be allowed to challenge the status quo within reason, and those who run roughshod over laws wehn it suits them must learn that there is a price to pay for that as well.
But boss, high drama!!! I snorted booze out through my nose when Ababu swore allegiance to President Raila Amollo Odinga. Now what we need is a channel dedicated to parliamentary proceedings. Let’s issue those guys a licence quickly!
7. Olive | January 16th, 2008 at 11:20 am
MAJOR, MASSIVE, silver lining i say! After Kibaki was declared the winner I was also of the opinion that it was a hollow victory without a majority in parlimament (under our current institution). The country is still not out of the woods yet but i definitely hear you on the silver lining angle, as we look towards a political solution. Go Kenya Go!!
8. Olive | January 16th, 2008 at 11:24 am
I guess i should have put the word ‘victory’ in quotes
9. maitha | January 16th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Ababu was a great disappointment though .
10. anonymous | January 16th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
Well lets hope that whatever ODM chages they willbe able to live with when its their turn to be in power…or will they find the same laws they have ‘changed’ unsutable for them when in power? just thinking out loud. This doees not mean that they shouldn’t change anything but they should be careful not to go to extremes..
11. wekesa | January 16th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
very well written article
12. Ishara | January 16th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
Ababu Nawamba was being his authentic self. That his speech disappointed some and had others like me coughing and choking with laughter-is purely coincidental.
When members faced this same dilemma why not go the N’gon’go route?…quietly and resolutely take the oath in the manner their ethics, morals and principles demand that they should?
13. Mike Todd | January 16th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
Thanks from those of us outside Kenya who are trying to understand the political situation. This post is very helpful.
14. Daud | January 16th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Silver lining? I don’t think the GEMA folks get the point. When I read Kenyan blogs, I get depressed. Not because the politicians are being politicians but because the common mwananchi is enabling him. You have numerous people who don’t see what happened in the election as a problem, you have people quoting kenya’s ‘economic success’, convinced that the election was fair and square, lots of gloating and grinning going on and then asking why everyone is so upset. I would suggest asking those who are disenfranchised how they feel.. but i guess the response would be ..’AND WHAT?’… I always expected politicians to not give a shit about the common man.. Lately we have found out that the common man doesn’t give a shit about the other common man..
15. Tamtam | January 16th, 2008 at 11:17 pm
Daud,
I think the people who do not see what happened in the election as a problem have problems. They need their heads examined. I read elsewhere, that even unborn babies know the election was stolen.
Some individuals can only stay within their comfort zones.
I think Desmond Tutu said people have a right to be upset about this, if they have any element of humanity.
16. Serina | January 16th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Well written argument.
17. Pambana | January 16th, 2008 at 11:53 pm
Dude, Brilliant piece man! GEMA is an absolute and total disgrace. I remember when it was formed during the 8th parliament before Moi was booted out, I saw it as a problem that Kenyans would come together politically and economically on the basis that their tribes are pretty much one and the same. I saw it as divisive and it was as if they were saying we are one group of Kenyans and to hell with everyone else that considers themselves to be Kenyan.
That is where the problem really started because it was exclusionary. Kibaki, Michuki, Kiraitu were amongst the most prominent members and look at them now insistent on staying perched a top a hill, ‘together till death (or an election) do us part’.
The next 5 years (should they make it that long) will see nothing passing through parliament, which is a very sad state of affairs because before this Kenya was heading places before. This is what happens when one breaks ’small laws/gentlemen’s agreement’ and is joins groups based on tribal lines; you split the country. Oh by the way and not that it should matter I am a Kyuk!
18. Jac | January 17th, 2008 at 12:43 am
Good one Mental, and so true. Thanks!
19. Julius | January 17th, 2008 at 9:24 am
If you dont have responsible comments please spare us your partisan irreresponsible views. PAMBANA u say you are a Kikuyu. But i dont know from what angle you have brought the issue of GEMA. Kibaki was not only elected by GEMA he had votes all over. We all have a right to support whichever side we did and do. I support Kibaki. Nobody should tell me that if i cant see a problem in the last election i am sick. I voted in Juja, I woke up at 4am and moblised people to vote including pleading with Thika Matatus at 6 am to stop overcharging so that people could go and vote. How do you think i feel when people like Ruto claim that out of 160,000 registered voters, only 48,000 voted ? You should be telling us what you did to ensure your candidate got enough votes and not picking romours from one corner and spreading them like you are the source.
20. prou | January 17th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
I had to clap very loudly for one Ababu Namwamba. Comic relief! Allegiance to President Raila Amollo Odinga indeed!
Isn’t is a criminal offense to give the title President to one who supposedly did not win? I imagine if it was those times of Nyayo we would be telling a different story.
I am hopeful though. Things are starting to look up, parliament was one step. Go Kenya and Kenyans whatever it is you do to get all of us out of this mess do it.
Justice be our shield and defender.
21. Pambana | January 17th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
Hello Julius, you are right, maybe I should have made it clearer that this was not necessarily in direct connection with the elections though as far as I am concerned it does have a bearing on them and the ethnic divide that is developing in the country. But, my point just to make it clear is that key figures within the government by joining tribal based groups/coalitions/alliances have in effect made the rest of the country feel excluded and disenfranchised.
22. D | January 17th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
The leaders are playing a dangerous game with these alliances. They send one message to the people of Kenya when in reality, they themselves are still friends. You should have seen parliament when it ended… both sides crossed paths to shake hands and laugh. But seems to be a different mood on the streets
23. util | January 20th, 2008 at 3:59 am
The constitution states that only a simple majority (and not 2/3rds as some people have stated) is needed in the parliament to declare no confidence in the government. As parliament has 210 seats, and ODM controls 106 votes it has the required votes to pass a no confidence motion. However, this move is likely to lead to a dissolution of Parliament. While ODM urge the mwananchi to protest and stay away from work, the elite (ODM and PNU) will not do the same. As Raila Odinga said on BBC Hardtalk, they (MPs) do not want to risk having to face the voters again.
What hypocrites
24. Justice | January 20th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
@ Util: As Raila Odinga said on BBC Hardtalk, they (MPs) do not want to risk having to face the voters again.
Why are they afraid to face voters when they claim that they won? Have voters changed their minds in ess than a month? I think the 1M ksh salary is beckoning too hard and someone has already began building castles with their salary. that is the crux of the matter - the ever ubiquitous bottomline.
25. Osas | January 23rd, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Daudi, the main flaw of your learned argument (I especially like the deconstruction of the decrepit Kenyan parliamentary system, that Westminster halfling with its utterly dysfunctional and fettering standing orders) is that you mistakenly, due to your scholarly background maybe, equate ODM to a “political party” in the Western, esp. in the European sense of the word. It is not, absolutely not.
But like its counterpart PNU, ODM is nothing but an incoherently amalgamated platform for the power and the aspirations of one single man. Period.
Osas
26. Joseph Karoki | January 24th, 2008 at 3:29 am
Hey guys, Mark your calenders! February 2nd there will be a benefit concert at “The Roxy” a premier concert location in Downtown Boston.ALL proceeds going to the Kenya Red Cross. Folks, this is the time to do something for those of you that have a heart for Kenya and want to help. This is a highly anticipated and exciting evening!!!! I’ll be flying to Boston for this event and be part of the talent on that day together with numerous Kenyan Artists. Please be there! If you are in the States call me at 214-708-1554 or email josephkaroki@hotmail.com or kgituma@gmail.com for details. Lets support our beloved country and Spread the word! Thanks to Harvard Med student and upcoming Kenyan Leader Karimi Gituma for putting this together. See you there.More details at http://www.josephkaroki.wordpress.com
27. w | January 24th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
So, basically you’re glad and fairly pleased about the massacres in the rift valley. it’s pretty clear that you don’t stand on the side of people who live in the civilzed world since you think that working women, migrant workers and babies should be massacred for basically nothing…well, at least now you’ve shown your true colors. You can’t hide behind the flowery words and rambling sentences forever.
28. minkia | January 27th, 2008 at 4:39 am
Dark cloud is lifting indeed. I wish all the best to my country and fellow country man, i have hope that our long standing peacefulness will be sustained while we drop the dirty siasas once and for all. Thank you for keeping this blog going, again
29. joram | January 30th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
When the skirmishes started and innocent people lost their lives in the Riftvalley, the ODM teamed with the perpetrators in the name of people who were frustrated by a robbed victory. Why are they so concerned about the killimgs taking place in Naivasha and Nakuru. I thought they don’t value people’s lives or it that Kikuyu’s life is not important as any. Any Kikuyu is not a small Kibaki.
KENYANS SHOULD RISE ABOVE THIS LEADERS AND CO-EXIST. WE ARE LIVING IN THE 20TH CENTURY AND THE THINGS HAPPENING ARE PRIMITIVE. UNIVERSITIES SHOULD TAKE EXAMPLES FROM JKUAT. MOST STUDENTS ARE FROM WESTERN AND RIFTVALLEY.
YOU O.D.M SUPPORTER THERE, LET ME TELL YOU THAT THERE IS NOTHING RADICAL ABOUT BURNING PROPERTIES, KILLING AND TRYING TO DERAIL THE ECONOMY SO THAT YOU MIGHT CAMPAIGN IT IN 2012. INFACT THIS WILL SPARK REVENGE FROM TOUGHER GROUPS THAT WILLTAKE THE GOVERNMENT TIME AND RESOURCES TO BREAK LATER.
BY NOW YOU SHOULD HAVE KNOWN WHO IS RIGHT. JUJA’S (PURELY KIKUYU)CASE HAS DEPRIVED ODM MOST OF THRE TRUST PEOPLE GAVE IT. IT SEEMS NO RIGGING TOOK PLACE. WE CAN’T JUST TRUST THEM.
30. Uganda » Blog Archi&hellip | February 20th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
[...] smallish city in Eastern Kenya, not too far from the border with Uganda. Just as there was talk of silver linings, of moving on, Nakuru has become the newest hotspot of violence. Writes the New York Times: [...]
31. El Oso » Blog Archi&hellip | May 17th, 2008 at 9:34 am
[...] smallish city in Eastern Kenya, not too far from the border with Uganda. Just as there was talk of silver linings, of moving on, Nakuru has become the newest hotspot of violence. Writes the New York Times: [...]
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